Author Archive

Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat – 7/5/17

12:02
Dave Cameron: Happy Wednesday, everyone.

12:02
Dave Cameron: Have my first post-op meeting wth my orthopedist today, so will have to wrap things up a little before 1 pm, but I’ll go longer next week to make up for it.

12:02
Pablo: Think the Brewers will make at least a minor trade to try to compete this year? They have a ton of outfield depth in the minors they could deal.

12:03
Dave Cameron: Yeah, they keep hanging around, and barring a huge collapse, definitely won’t be selling now. I could see them going after a Jason Vargas type, the kind of guy who would upgrade their rotation more than some other teams, and who might be able to crack their playoff rotation but wouldn’t in some other cities.

12:04
Dave Cameron: I’m sure they’d prefer a controllable guy, but I would imagine they’ll get outbid for the likes of Gray and Quintana.

12:04
The Toe: Should the Cubs try and sell Arrieta and Davis at the deadline? No team has ever won the WS being below .500 on July 5th.

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Picking the 2017 American League All-Stars

Yesterday, I put on my dictator hat and suggested how I would fill out the National League All-Star team, if it was entirely up to me. Today, we’re going to do the American League, which is, in comparison, underwhelming. Actually, underwhelming is an underwhelming description for what it was like to assemble this roster after doing the NL yesterday. It was essentially an exercise in saying “wait, really, these are my choices?” over and over.

There are, of course, some really exciting talents in the American League. And there are guys having really great All-Star caliber seasons. But there are shockingly few players who fit both of those criteria, as basically all the big names that you’d expect to be here haven’t had seasons good enough to justify their presence. Mike Trout? Injured. Miguel Cabrera? 115 wRC+. Manny Machado? 86 wRC+. Josh Donaldson? Missed a good chunk of the first half, and hasn’t been great since coming off the DL.

As I noted yesterday, I lean towards the All-Star game being a reward for a player’s performance to this point, with track record a factor but a less important one than how you’ve played this year. That’s why they have the event every year; to honor the players playing like stars this season. In the first half of the 2017 season, the stars of the AL mostly haven’t played like stars, and the guys who have are not guys you would have pegged for the All-Star team before the year started.

So, prepare to be underwhelmed by the names to follow. This is just what the league has given us.

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Picking the 2017 National League All-Stars

The All-Star game is just a few weeks away, and on Sunday, we’ll find out the results of the fan’s voting for the starters, as well as most of the reserves. In advance of the announcement, I’m going to give you my selections for how I would fill out both squads if MLB granted me totalitarian authority and let me fill all 32 spots. I’m sticking with the rules agreed to in the CBA, so I’m taking 20 position players and 12 pitchers, with each team sending at least one representative.

And while I’ll generally defer to players who are established stars over guys who are off to strong starts this season, I also believe that the game is designed to reward the players who are having the best seasons, so 2017 performance is the primary factor in determining who goes and who stays home. It’s not the only factor, but you have to be playing well this year to make my squad, and even if we expect significant regression in the second half, I’m still putting you on the team if you’re clearly either the best or second-best player at your position this year.

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Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat – 6/28/17

12:01
Dave Cameron: Happy Wednesday, everyone.

12:02
Dave Cameron: You know the underrated part of being on crutches? It’s really hard to take stuff with you when you move. Hey, neat, I got this fruit out of the refrigerator… now how do I get it to the table?

12:03
Dave Cameron: Anyway, let’s talk baseball for the next hour or so.

12:03
Dave Cameron: Or the joy of having your knee cut open, if you’re into that kind of thing.

12:03
Jeries: What is the most common reason for relievers being unable to start: lack of a third pitch or lack of stamina?

12:04
Dave Cameron: Can’t get opposite handed hitters out.

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The Dodgers Are the New Cubs

Over the weekend, the Rockies came to LA to show everyone that the NL West was really going to be a fight, that this wasn’t just the Dodgers’ division to run away with. At 47-28, the Rockies were just behind the 48-26 Dodgers, and with a successful weekend in LA, they could even retake the division lead.

It didn’t go well. They Dodgers won 6-1 on Friday, 4-0 on Saturday, and 12-6 on Sunday, outscoring the Rockies 22-7 on the weekend. The Rockies are now 4.5 games back in the NL West race. Their chances of winning the division, which we had at 9.0% on June 20th, are now 1.3% on June 26th. And it’s not like the Rockies have fallen apart; the Dodgers are just proving to be an absolute behemoth.

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Andrew McCutchen Is Back

After a five-year run as one of the best players in baseball, Andrew McCutchen put up the worst year of his career in 2016. His strikeouts went up, his power and BABIP went down, and his defense was bad enough to finally precipitate a move out of center field. All told, McCutchen produced just +0.7 WAR last year, and when the team hung a superstar asking price on him in trades over the winter, they didn’t find anyone willing to meet their demands.

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Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat – 6/21/17

12:01
Dave Cameron: Happy Wednesday, everyone.

12:01
Dave Cameron: Or pre-ACL reconstruction day for me. This is my last day with mobility for a while.

12:02
Dave Cameron: So let’s talk about players whose knees aren’t about to get cut open.

12:02
Blah: Dave, The baseballs are juiced/changed right? I don’t think there is even a debate anymore.

12:02
Dave Cameron: There’s definitely still a debate. There’s circumstantial evidence that suggests the ball is different now, but it isn’t a fair reading of the evidence to suggest we’ve removed all doubt.

12:03
Dave Cameron: I think the ball probably is different. It makes the most sense. But we don’t *know*.

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Let’s Talk About That Weird Sonny Gray Trade Rumor

After the worst year of his career, including spending time on the DL with shoulder issues, Sonny Gray looks healthy again, posting his best fielding-independent numbers since his rookie year. And with the A’s looking like sellers, Gray is expected to get moved in the next month or so. And according to Susan Slusser, it might be sooner than that, with the Astros reportedly the most aggressive buyer at the moment.

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Sizing Up the Buyers and the Sellers

With the draft officially behind us, MLB’s calendar has officially flipped to Trade Season. With six weeks before the non-waiver trade deadline, teams now have to get serious about deciding which direction they’re going to go; trade talks can often take a while, and teams generally want to get looks at guys they may get in return, which necessitates knowing whether to send additional scouts to cover the majors or the minors.

Of course, no one has to cement their decision on June 19th, and the results of the next month or so will move some teams from one side of the ledger to the other. But as trade talks begin to begin in earnest, let’s take a look at where all 30 teams stand now, and what we should expect them to do before July 31st.

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It’s Time to Pull the Plug on Pablo Sandoval

Last night, the Red Sox started Pablo Sandoval at third base, the first time in four games he’d been in the starting line-up. He responded by singling to lead off the second inning and miraculously drew a walk in the third inning, which should tell you how sharp Jeremy Hellickson was last night. In the 8th inning, he was replaced by Josh Rutledge for defensive purposes, despite the fact that Rutledge has regularly graded out as one of the worst defensive infielders in baseball. But for Sandoval, this was a pretty successful night, reaching base twice and handling all four balls that he fielded.

But the fact that this is what constitutes a successful game for a player on a team trying to win is why the Red Sox should realize it’s time to just move on.

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