Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat – 6/28/17

Dave Cameron: Happy Wednesday, everyone.

Dave Cameron: You know the underrated part of being on crutches? It’s really hard to take stuff with you when you move. Hey, neat, I got this fruit out of the refrigerator… now how do I get it to the table?

Dave Cameron: Anyway, let’s talk baseball for the next hour or so.

Dave Cameron: Or the joy of having your knee cut open, if you’re into that kind of thing.

Jeries: What is the most common reason for relievers being unable to start: lack of a third pitch or lack of stamina?

Dave Cameron: Can’t get opposite handed hitters out.

Dave Cameron: That’s not always just a third pitch; it can be predominantly arm slot.

John: Thoughts on Miguel Montero’s comments?  Pretty surprising for a team thats winning, even if they are underperforming

Dave Cameron: Montero has long had a rep as a me-first guy. He complained loudly about losing his job to Willson Contreras last year. If anyone was going to say it, it was going to be him.

That said, he’s not wrong. Those steals were almost all on Arrieta.

Adam: So can we all agree that MLB is keeping much of the Statcast data private so that they can be the ones to develop the new stats in the way they’d like?

Dave Cameron: That’s one way to phrase it, I guess, if you want to take the most entitled position possible. How about looking at this way? MLB invested a massive amount of money to build this technology, and like every other business in the world, would like to see some return on their investment, so they are in the business of developing data that can be licensed to broadcasters for a fee, helping make Statcast a sustainable product.

Dave Cameron: The idea that MLB owes it to us to pay for, maintain, and run this system, and then just give out a full feed of raw data so that they lose any real ability to monetize Statcast in any way, is weird.

LegallyEagle: What are the primary reasons SBs are down across the league? (i) Teams just valuing it less; (ii) Catchers are getting better at throwing out would-be-stealers; (iii) Modern athletes are less “quick” and are more focused on power, and/or (iv) something else? [I really want a 100+ SB season by a player in my life time…]

Dave Cameron: Why steal second if the guy behind you is going to HR?

Terry: JD Martinez and JD Bruce seem likely to be traded, but what teams have an OF opening? Most contenders that have gotten poor OF corner production (e.g., AZ with Tomas, COL with Desmond) seem to be committed to their incumbents for one reason or another.

Dave Cameron: I would not be surprised to see LAD land Martinez, move Bellinger back to 1B.

JTT: Dave, were you playing for the Mets when you tore your ACL?

Dave Cameron: No. If I was, my leuekmia would have also returned simultaneously.

Jordan: If the Rangers are serious about resigning Darvish, do you think they’re justified in holding the team together for another year?  Or should they really be embarking on a serious rebuild?

Dave Cameron: Probably depends on their read on Otani.

Dave Cameron: If they actually think he’s coming over next year, and that they can get him, then you keep it together.

Tor: Could Jed Lowrie or Zack Cozart be a third-base solution for the Red Sox?

Dave Cameron: Lowrie maybe, Cozart no.

Dave Cameron: You don’t trade for a good defensive SS and stick him at third, a position I don’t think he’s ever played.

Jeff in T.O.: Dan, the Blue Jays need a new stadium, but their current location is perfect. What do you think about the idea of the Blue Jays playing out of Montreal for two seasons while the SkyDome gets bulldozed and a new stadium built in its place?

Dave Cameron: Justin, I think the Blue Jays don’t really need a new stadium.

Zonk: Rusney Castillo appears trapped in AAA, no matter how well he plays, due to luxury-tax implications of adding him back to 40-man or trading him.  Normally, a speedy plus OF posting a .850 OPS in AAA is getting a call…..right?  Will MLB consider a rule change if Rusney remains trapped in AAA?

Dave Cameron: I don’t know that Rusney Castillo has enough clout to get a rule changed, but I do imagine there might some discussion of a tweak that would allow future players to not get caught in the same trap.

E: Freddie Freeman to 3B is interesting?

Dave Cameron: Sure. The Braves are bad, so might as well try it.

Dave Cameron: If he turns out okay there, then you just solved an organizational hole.

Sean: Why would Maeda, a well-paid, seasoned starter, stand for the quasi-swingman way he’s being used in LA?

Dave Cameron: “Hey, we’re going to move guys around so that we effectively have a 7 man rotation, and everyone is going to take turns making up injuries or pitching out of the bullpen. This will keep you healthy, hopefully, and you’ll get to pitch in October.”

Dave Cameron: And Miguel Montero just got DFA’d

Dave Cameron: This is a great example of being right about the facts but wrong about the wisdom of speaking them.

Rick: The Braves are rumored to be interested in controllable starters like Gray and Quintana.  Is it too soon in their rebuild process to be trying for such an acquisition?  I find it difficult to believe that the team could be a legitimate playoff contender even by 2019.

Dave Cameron: The Braves continue to believe that they’re better than they are, seemingly.

Dave Cameron: I know they want to win soon. They just aren’t capable of it.

Hector: Dave, if YOU had to pinpoint ONE reason for this home run surge what would you say it is?

Dave Cameron: The ball.

Joe Douglas: Hope your ACL recovery is going well. You mentioned a week or two back that no one has Judge’s power. In terms of Exit Velocity and power defined as simply hitting the ball hard, I would agree. No one hit’s the ball harder than Judge. However, I can see the argument to claiming Bellinger may have more power, if the method for determining power is outcome based. Is the distinction important? Essentially raw input of “hit the ball the hardest” is a variable in the function of overall “power.” So is launch angle, etc.

Dave Cameron: Bellinger’s not going to keep getting this rate of fly balls to go over the wall.

Dave Cameron: His outcomes have been lucky.

Sterling Mallory Chris Archer: Would any team be interested in Odubel or Mikael?

Dave Cameron: Well, Odubel is a good player signed to a super team friendly contract, so yes.

Dave Cameron: Maikel Franco is not very good, so probably not anyone trying to win.

Jason : Does Miguel Cabrera have some trade value meaning could the Tigers actually trade him STRAIGHT-UP (without picking up any of the $200+ million owed to him) receiving a legit higher end prospect for him? if not what’s the best case scenario?

Dave Cameron: No, that contract is well under water. They’d have to eat a lot of it to move him.

King-err-ee: in terms of pitching, the strikeout is becoming more and more important. Are sinker ballers and “pitch-to-contact” guys falling by the wayside?

Dave Cameron: Pitching to contact isn’t a great idea when contact so often leads to HRs now.

Nick S: Am I blind, or has the pitchfx tab vanished from player pages?

Dave Cameron: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/pitch-info-data-on-fangraph…

Dave Cameron: We’ve licensed the Pitch Info data from Harry Pavlidis and his team, so our default pitch data is now from Pitch Info, not MLB’a algorithm. Also, since PITCHf/x isn’t a thing anymore, this allows us to not conflate F/x/Statcast data.

Slim Charles: Bellinger vs. Judge over the next 5 years, who are you taking? Same question for their careers.

Dave Cameron: I’m taking Judge.

Dave Cameron: The question with him is now really about health, and how well a body that big can maintain the rigors of playing everyday.

Kerry: Initial impressions about the wonderful world of Oxycodone?

Dave Cameron: As a person who has never done drugs for fun, I don’t get the appeal.

Dave Cameron: Happy to be off of it already.

Alex: Can you see the Dodgers working a 3 team trade where they add a SP while flipping one of their many SP to another buyer?

Dave Cameron: I doubt it would be that complicated. I could see them doing a Ryu for someone better than Ryu deal with less control, like the Cespedes/Lester trade a few years back.

Troy Tulowitzki: How done, am I?

Dave Cameron: Well

Hector: What would be more useful for a team? Let’s say you have Andrew Miller the pitcher as the subject and let’s say as a STARTER he was a 3.10 ERA  / 1.15-1.20 WHIP guy. Would that be preferable to what he is now?

Dave Cameron: Well, sure, if Miller could be a #1 starter, that’s better. But he probably can’t be.

weezy: A couple years ago you wrote a piece on Andrelton Simmons/Ozzie Smith, mostly tying peak defenders aging and how it might correspond to their offensive development. Given that stance, do you have anty hope that Billy Hamilton will ever hit for more than a .280 wOBA?

Dave Cameron: Not really. He just doesn’t have enough strength to hit the ball hard enough.

Dave Cameron: His only path to offensive success is to become an elite bunter with crazy good command of the strike zone.

Troutmaggedon: Angels are kind of stuck right? They got some one year rentals like Maybin and Norris that they could flip at the deadline even if for not a whole lot, but anything would help their system. But they are still in the race with a ton of guys and Trout coming back. So they’ll stick with it and amount to at best a ALDS exit right?

Dave Cameron: They’ll add.

Dave Cameron: Nothing there is valuable enough to sell to incentivize giving up.

Moltar: Are the Mets’ injuries bad luck or systemic? Ron Darling had some not so positive comments about the Mets’ strength and condition coach, who just happens to be a Wilpon friend with no experience training players for baseball (and has a curious habit of charging players out of pocket for “voluntary” offseason workouts).

Dave Cameron: It’s always very difficult to find causation in these things. That said, given the number of problems they’ve had, it’s probably time for some kind of change.

Beltre: He’s hitting .303/.373/.562 since returning. Beast.

Dave Cameron: Few things about baseball have made me happier than the world acknowledging Adrian Beltre as one of the best players of his time.

Blackburn: What should the Pirates do with McCutchen? Keep him, trade him at the deadline, or trade him in the offseason?

Dave Cameron: Trade him at the deadline.

Jeb: Tyler Glasnow is not learning anything in Triple A. What do you think the Pirates should do with him?

Dave Cameron: Bullpen.

Matt: Most likely reason the Dodgers do NOT get to the WS: 1) Another frontline SP, 2) A dominant setup guy, or 3) Young bats regressing (Taylor, Bellinger, etc…)

Dave Cameron: The playoffs are mostly random

Ted Nettles: Dave I was just on crutches for six weeks – anything you need to carry, put in a bag with handles, ie: paper grocery bag. Plates of food are out of the question. Use a bowl for anything you’d normally use a plate for and you can grip it just enough with your thumb and index finger. Glass of liquid also not worth it – try a water bottle. But all that stuff pales in comparison to the indignity of sitting on the floor in the shower. Good luck!

Dave Cameron: Ah, yeah, a paper bag is a good call.

Dave Cameron: I had considered a backpack but didn’t really want to throw some yogurt in there.

Dave Cameron: And I’ll raise you shower indignity; I threw a folding camp chair in mine…

Troutmaggedon: Is the solution to the HR revolution to start moving the fences back on all the band boxes built since Camden yards? Or is it pitching adjustments.

Dave Cameron: Moving the fences back doesn’t really kill offense; Coors Field has some of the largest dimensions in MLB.

John: Would it not make more sense for the Dodgers to enter a buyer friendly 1B market (Yonder, Adams, Duda) and keep Bellinger in the OF?  Only really competing with the Yankees there

Dave Cameron: You just named three LH hitters.

Dave Cameron: I think they’d prefer a RH.

Tres: If the Angels decide to buy, who could they possibly target, and who could they be willing to offer of any value for those targets?

Dave Cameron: Obviously they don’t have enough chips to get a big name guy, so they’d probably be looking at Jamie Garcia types.

primantis: I hate how the Dodgers are clearly manipulating the DL.  Why aren’t the other teams complaining and getting MLB to disallow it?

Dave Cameron: Because this is the primary reason the DL was reduced to 10 days to begin with. The Dodgers previously were just doing this by optioning guys to Triple-A after starts; this is less weird than that.

BB guy: Verdugo has a 17 game hitting streak, Calhoun hit another HR yesterday.  What are the Dodgers going to do about promoting them?

Dave Cameron: They’re going to trade them.

Dave Cameron: They already have too many position players.

Quinn: Re: Maeda:  you make a good point, but the way Maeda’s contract is structured means he stands to lose $10 million or more each year he’s not starting; I could see him (or perhaps his agent) requesting a trade if the Dodgers don’t move him back to the rotation eventually.

Dave Cameron: I would imagine the Dodgers and his representatives have already talked about re-working the incentives.

Kris in Seattle: Moncada got $31.5M to sign, Robert $26M. Should we temper our expectations for these kids that get $4M on July 2. Seems like the market is valuing even the top kids as C+ level prospects.

Dave Cameron: Once a team is already over the spending threshold, there’s not much remaining incentive to limit spending.

Dave Cameron: Vlad Guerrero Jr getting $4M was about TOR not blowing their allocation pool, not him only being worth $4M.

Moltar: Woah, so Montero now gets DFA’d? Seems a bit harsh.

Dave Cameron: The backup catcher doesn’t get to openly criticize his teammates and keep his job.

led: I go in for surgery on my ACL/meniscus 7.24 – how you feeling a week later? Aside from not being able to carry anything, give me something that’s surprised you about/after the surgery….

Dave Cameron: The pain is pretty well managed at this point; I got off Oxycodone yesterday, and haven’t even taken Tylenol or Motrin today. In terms of surprises, I figured I’d spend most of my first weekend in recovery reading or watching TV. Nope, the drugs knock you out. Expect to sleep a lot.

Manny: With so many of the game’s current best players being former 1st round draft picks, would you say the MLB draft has become the most important one in all of professional sports?

Dave Cameron: Uh, no.

Dave Cameron: The value of a high pick in the NBA is something like 10x the value of a high pick in MLB.

Jacko: Quintana’s most likely landing spot, if traded? Best guess

Dave Cameron: NYY

primantis: Who is the fangraphs writer that everyone hates who you retain to keep the team chemistry positive?

Dave Cameron: Me.

Josh: So what’s the difference in the regular Plate Discipline numbers as compared to the Pitch Info Plate Discipline numbers?

Dave Cameron: The ones not labeled as Pitch Info come from BIS.

Dave Cameron: Pitch Info is generally regarded as having the best classifications and pitch data, so I’d suggest using those.

Will C.: The braves aren’t capable of winning? They have been without a top 3 hitter in the NL for more than a month and have won a majority of those games AND expect him back before the allstar break. So please explain how they are not “capable of winning”

Dave Cameron: Remember when their second half record last year proved they were ready to win?

Dave Cameron: This team isn’t good.

Dave Cameron: Freeman is awesome. Inciarte is good. Teheran is okay. The rest of these guys either need to be replaced or aren’t ready for the big leagues.

Esteban: Montero’s avg pop time of 2.1 seconds is 2nd worst in the league. Those steals were mostly his fault.

Dave Cameron: Go read Travis’ piece. No catcher throws out most of those guys last night.

Dave Cameron: It can be true that Montero has a terrible arm and that Arrieta didn’t give him a chance.

Kevin: As Mike Petriello and team keep coming out with cool new ways of evaluating players using MLB proprietary data, do you fear that they’ll eventually put Fangraphs out of business?

Dave Cameron: I think there’s room for both. There are things they can do that we can’t do, and vice versa. Can you imagine what the MLBPA’s reaction would be if MLB tried to roll out something like their own version of WAR, given how much WAR affects player valuation now? The league publishing a metric that says “pay this guy more, this guy less” would not go over well.

Alex: Other than running, are there any other sports you could conceivably play with a torn ACL

Dave Cameron: Apparently you don’t need one to ski.

Dave Cameron: My orthopedist told me the guy who won the silver medal in the last olympics apparently was skiing on a torn ACL.

Marty: Is JV going anywhere? Who are likely candidates?

Dave Cameron: He’s not pitching well and is very expensive. I don’t know that there’s a market for him right now.

Charlie: Dave, they’re called baths. No indignity, just bliss.

Dave Cameron: Not allowed to soak my leg in water for 3 weeks.

John: Dodgers currently 5th in wrc+ against lefties at 110.  6th against righties with a 109 wrc+.  Seems like they’ve solved their issue with lefties? Or is that a SSS thing

Dave Cameron: Think it’s just more about balance. Seager, Bellinger, Pederson, Grandal all LHH. Turner only RH in middle of the order. Adding another LH just makes the match-ups too easy in the postseason.

Bob Valdez: You have a young child and a dog to care for.  Your working wife must be pretty unhappy with you getting this injury

Dave Cameron: Yeah, this wasn’t her favorite thing ever. Neighbors are helping with the dog during the day, thankfully.

BT: Is there a specific rule requiring player contracts to be public info? I could understand having to report to the commish office for validation, but never quite understood why everyone gets to know what a guy makes…

Dave Cameron: Teams don’t report that stuff publicly; it just gets leaked, often by the agents themselves.

Pk: Much has been made of the widely different styles of Red Sox former GM Cherington and current one, Dombrowski, mostly focusing on the horde talent vs. trade the farm narrative. One thing I’ve perceived based on acquisitions is that Dombrowski is much better at evaluating Major league level talent. Do you agree?

Dave Cameron: Nope.

Dave Cameron: I don’t know that Dombrowski has done anything in Boston that Cherington couldn’t have done. Overpay for Chris Sale? There’s nothing magical about that.

Dan Warthen: Is there something magical about not signing pablo sandoval?

Dave Cameron: Everyone does things that don’t work. Everyone.

Dave Cameron: Dombrowski traded Travis Shaw for a broken pitcher because he thought Pablo could still play.

Dave Cameron: Alright, off to do some writing and hobbling.

Dave Cameron: Thanks for hanging out, everyone.