Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat – 6/21/17

Dave Cameron: Happy Wednesday, everyone.

Dave Cameron: Or pre-ACL reconstruction day for me. This is my last day with mobility for a while.

Dave Cameron: So let’s talk about players whose knees aren’t about to get cut open.

Blah: Dave, The baseballs are juiced/changed right? I don’t think there is even a debate anymore.

Dave Cameron: There’s definitely still a debate. There’s circumstantial evidence that suggests the ball is different now, but it isn’t a fair reading of the evidence to suggest we’ve removed all doubt.

Dave Cameron: I think the ball probably is different. It makes the most sense. But we don’t *know*.

Mike: While the yankees’ recent losing streak isn’t a true barometer of what they are, does it reflect that the earlier hype was premature? Is their true ranking somewhere in between? Or is this just random bullpen mishaps making it an outlier?

Dave Cameron: By BaseRuns, they are the best team in baseball and it isn’t close.

Dave Cameron: They’re really good, recent losing streak or not.

AJ: Hi Dave.  The White Sox have very little payroll committed to next year (and 2 of their big contracts are Robertson and Quintana who may be traded). The Yankees need another starter, but are clearly not interested in rentals and would like to get under the $195M mark. If the White Sox agreed to take Ellsbury, would the Yankees be more inclined to trade from the top of their farm system?  Maybe, Frazier, Mateo and Sheffield for Quintana?  Would it be worth it from both sides?  Thanks.

Dave Cameron: Yeah, the White Sox should definitely be trying to buy talent by taking on bad contracts.

Dave Cameron: Whether that’s something the Yankees are interested in is less clear.

Dustin: This “Freddie Freeman to third base” talk can’t be something the Braves’ front office is seriously considering, can it? I just can’t imagine any other course of action for a still-rebuilding club besides dealing Matt Adams while his value is as high as it’s been in years.

Dave Cameron: I think you’re probably overrating how much the league would react to Adams having a hot month. He got traded for nothing not long ago; teams aren’t going to think he’s suddenly great now.

Dave Cameron: The idea that Adams could be flipped for some kind of real return is probably false.

Sonny: Pablo Sandoval is no longer trusted offensively or defensively late in games for the Red Sox, how does the team work around this and why should they?

Dave Cameron: They just need to cut him.

Dave Cameron: Dombrowski is being overly stubborn on this.

Bernie Brewer: Lance Lynn has had an ERA below his FIP/xFIP for the past few years, but this year it’s even more extreme.  Is this sustainable?

Dave Cameron: Tony Blengino wrote about him and his contact suppression for the site today. He’s throttling contact, so yes, while he’s allowing this kind of weak contact, he’s better than FIP thinks.

Orange Whips: I know the Twins aren’t playoff caliber just yet. But have you seen enough from their young core this season to think they’re on a good trajectory?

Dave Cameron: There’s some promise there. With Buxton looking more like Billy Hamilton, though, I wonder if they’ve got enough high-level players. A lot of these guys like Kepler, Grossman, and Polanco look like guys you don’t mind having, but not really core pieces.

Dave Cameron: Sano is really good. After that, I don’t know.

Murdoc: Which is a worse idea, Matt Adams in left or Freddie Freeman at third?

Dave Cameron: Adams in left. Freeman was an average-ish first baseman, maybe even above average, with a strong arm. If he’s a -10 3B, okay, well, that’s still better than what they had.

Dave Cameron: And it’s not like -10 3Bs don’t get played.

Matt: Does Mookie’s past life as a second baseman factor into his current/future value? Would the Red Sox/another team ever consider moving him back to the infield, or is he an OF from here on out? Does that versatility have any impact on $$?

Dave Cameron: He’s an outfielder.

JTT: So what do you do if you’re the Brewers?

Dave Cameron: Be patient, wait for the Cubs to run away with it, trade Garza in July or August.

Buff: So if the Rockies are probable buyers at the trade deadline, what do they buy? They appear to have a surplus of capable starters and outfielders, and their infield starters are stellar. More bullpen arms?

Dave Cameron: Mark Reynolds is stellar?

Dave Cameron: He’s had a nice first half, but with Reynolds likely regression coming and CarGo struggling, plus Desmond not looking like a productive bat yet, they are a hitter or two short.

Beep boop im a robot: Ben Gamel is obviously playing unsustainably well right now. But even witj regression imminent, has this stint changed your mind at all about his talent? Maybe more than a fourth outfielder right now?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, he’s probably good enough to play everyday now.

PTBNL: With Hardy on the shelf for a few weeks, Torres getting TJ, and Panda having an “ear infection,” (I think he was misdiagnosed, he has bad-at-baseball-itis) which AL East team makes the first move to upgrade the hot corner? Could Cozart play 3B for the Yankees or Red Sox?

Dave Cameron: Don’t see anyone acquiring Cozart to move him out of the middle of the infield. My guess is the Red Sox land Frazier as a 3B/1B/DH option, the Yankees stand pat with Headley, and the Orioles — if they buy — get Cozart.

Vince Clortho: Do defensive stats give credit to outfielders who cut off balls in the gap, or does that just count against baserunning stats as a failure to go from first to third?

Dave Cameron: That’s counted as part of the ARM rating.

Dave Cameron: ARM is throwing runners out and preventing advancements. Of course, not all advance prevention is about throwing, but it gets counted in that bucket.

JG: Has Fangraphs changed their weights to their xFIP and FIP calculations? I’ve noticed on multiple occasions when looking at pitchers who have barely any differences in their BB and K rates have wildly different calculations to the above. More so than in recent years.

Dave Cameron: No, the formulas haven’t changed. FIP is heavily influenced by HR rate, so you need to also factor that in.

Sale: At what point I’m I in the convo as best LHP in baseball? Keyshaw, me, then Keuchel?

Dave Cameron: You’re not in Kershaw’s league. No one is.

Marichal: What are the chances that Cueto gets traded this summer, and who are the most likely trade partners?

Dave Cameron: Depends on how he pitches over the next month. If he keeps struggling and won’t opt-out, they keep him, probably.

Dave Cameron: If he has a few good starts and it seems like he might walk away from the 4/$84M left on his deal, then they probably move him.

PTBNL: In an ideal world, who’s participating in the home run derby this year?

Dave Cameron: Judge and Stanton, with everyone else quitting before the event starts so we can just get right to the finals with those two.

J: Judge rest of season wRC+?

Dave Cameron: 135

Chris S: Do you still believe that the Nationals will be looking for a CF at the deadline? Michael A Taylor and Brian Goodwin seem to be chugging along rather well and Andrew Stevenson could be up soon. More relievers perhaps?

Dave Cameron: Would guess they’ll get an OF who can play CF if Taylor goes in a funk, but could also play left while Werth is hurt.

D: “mobility” in the lightest of terms? how can you walk on a torn ACL?

Dave Cameron: I didn’t realize this either until it happened, but you don’t really need your ACL for everyday stuff. I hiked 4 miles on Saturday. You’d never know my knee was shot right now. But your ACL is needed for pivoting/stopping, so I can’t really run unless it’s just in a straight line and I give myself a lot of room to slow down.

LegallyEagle: Good luck with your ACL reconstruction! Hopefully you won’t be hopped up on painkillers afterwards or anything (I’m not sure how the process works).

Dave Cameron: I’ve got a prescription for oxycodone, so if I write anything insane on Friday, I blame that.

Outta my way, Gyorkass: Judge checks in today with a Trout-ian 4.5 WAR on June 21. Obviously, he needs to display this level of baseball aptitude for quite a while before we judge him to be on the level of Trout, but what do you think is a reasonable end of year WAR figure for him?

Dave Cameron: He’s running a .430 BABIP. He’s not Troutian.

Dave Cameron: Maybe he gets to +7 or +8 WAR this year, but he’s probably more of a +5ish player.

RE: ACL reconstruction: Take it *super* easy for the first few hours after surgery.  My wife had her ACL reconstructed and tried to crutch-hobble into the pharmacy with me a few hours later.  She nearly passed out.

Dave Cameron: Well, I tore the meniscus on both sides of my knee too, so I’m not going to be allowed to put any weight on my left leg for a month.

Mike M: I know you’re not the resident prospect guy, but how good do you personally think Vlad Guerrero Jr. is going to be?

Dave Cameron: I think he’s the best prospect in baseball.

Dave Cameron: And I wouldn’t be surprised if he turned out to be the best hitter in the game in the next 10 years.

Justin: Despite Cozart having a career year and showing some signs of raw improvement (and some of batted ball luck), what is a realistic haul for him in the current market? a number 50-75 prospect and a kicker?

Dave Cameron: Don’t think you get a Top 100 guy for him. Not enough demand for SS.

PTBNL: Why cut Sandoval when they could just send him down to Pawtucket and hope he figures it out? Take him off the 40-man like they did with Craig. It’s not like he’d have any trouble clearing waivers – no one wants to touch that contract.

Dave Cameron: As a veteran with 5+ years of service time, he has the right to refuse any minor league assignment.

Dave Cameron: If you outright him off the 40 man, he can choose to be a free agent. That’s cutting him.

Ichiro: I don’t really think of Ichiro as a sure fire Hall of Famer anymore.  OPS of over .700 just twice in the last nine years.  Hall of Famer for you?

Dave Cameron: You think what 44-year-old Ichiro is doing as a fourth outfielder should impact our memories of what he was in his prime?

Kyle: who has more power Gallo or Judge.  Can Gallo make enough contact long term to make his power playable?

Dave Cameron: No one has Judge’s power. No one.

Taco Tuesday: Idea: Astros tandem start Morton and Peacock in the playoffs. Both are great 1st two times through the order.

Dave Cameron: I think the Astros are setting themselves up to bullpen their way through the non-Keuchel starts in the postseason.

Dave Cameron: Even McCullers is probably a 5 IP guy in October because he throws so many pitches.

Dave Cameron: Then you have Morton, Peacock, Devenski, Martes, etc…

LegallyEagle: Cody Bellinger is making the All-Star game right?

Dave Cameron: Probably, though NL OF is crowded.

Gary: Has Mookie gotten too pull happy? His BABIP is way down

Dave Cameron: It’s not about being pull happy; he hits a lot of infield flies.

Douglas X.: Assuming Brendan McKay is equally talented/projectable as a hitter/pitcher, doesn’t the injury risk mean that the Rays developing him as a hitter is an easy decision?

Dave Cameron: Sure, but most people think the arm is way ahead of the bat.

Grant: Reynolds is going to regress to expectations but… CarGo and Desmond aren’t…?

Dave Cameron: CarGo’s expected regression level is to a league average hitter with bad defense.

Dave Cameron: He’s not very good.

Mike M: Re: Reynolds regressing and CarGo + Desmond struggling: regression would suggest Reynolds will get worse but CarGo and Desmond will get better. It doesn’t make sense to suggest that one guy doing well and two guys doing poorly will all end up doing more poorly.

Dave Cameron: Of course CarGo will do better than he has been. But his better still is meh.

Dave Cameron: Reynolds, Gonzalez, and Desmond are below average corner players.

Dave Cameron: The idea that they’re a strength of the Rockies team is silly.

DMG: Do people who work for baseball teams in non-baseball ops jobs have the same work/life imbalance as those in baseball ops? Or is it more like a regular 9-to-5 if you’re in Marketing, or IT, or something like that?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, those jobs are normal.

BB guy: What do the Dodgers go re trades before All Star Break?  they are going strong but where do you see them trying to improve?  Getting a strong setup man?  Do they trade their AAA stars?

Dave Cameron: I wouldn’t be surprised to see them go for an OF who would let them stick Bellinger at first full time.

Dave Cameron: Gonzalez is not really a starter on a contender anymore.

j : Should Greg Bird continue to stay hurt, can you see the Yanks go after Yonder Alonso? I don’t see how they can stick with Chris Carter after the deadline

Dave Cameron: Yeah, I think a Gray/Alsono package to NYY could make a good amount of sense.

PTBNL: Kershaw is 16th in the MLB in FIP, a full 1.50 above Sale.

Sale is not in Kershaw’s league based on historical performance, but he’s way ahead of him based on this year’s numbers.

Dave Cameron: If you’re judging a player based solely on the first 10 weeks of 2017, you’re doing it wrong.

LegallyEagle: Why wouldn’t Bellinger be part of your hypothetical HR Derby? His exit velocity not up to par?

Dave Cameron: He doesn’t have Judge/Stanton power.

fla;kldjwf: When people say the balls are “juiced” what exactly does that mean?

Dave Cameron: That the ball has had some physical changes that make it fly farther.

Dave Cameron: http://www.physics.usyd.edu.au/~cross/baseball.html

Grant: Since 2014, Kershaw and Scherzer are 4 wins apart. Sale is 3 wins below Kershaw while in the AL. Kershaw stuff and home run problem… What could make you put Sale or Scherzer above him?

Dave Cameron: Kershaw could die, I guess.

Dave Cameron: There will come a point at which Clayton Kershaw isn’t the best pitcher in baseball. We’re not close to that point yet.

RM: In order of Playoff Odds, the NL playoff teams are the Dodgers, Nats, Rockies, Cubs, and Dbacks, all >80%. Do you expect any shake up at all, and who would be the odd man out?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, at this point, that has to be the expected five in the postseason. If any of those five are going to slide, it’s probably AZ or COL.

Mike M: “No one has Judge’s power. No one.” Mr. Stanton disagrees

Dave Cameron: Stanton has traded power for contact. He’s not hitting the ball like he used to.

Dave Cameron: And right now, Judge is hitting the ball harder than Stanton did even at his peak.

Wes: When can we expect to start seeing the Trade Value series?

Dave Cameron: It comes out during the All-Star break.

primantis: Is there a team in worse long term shape than the Marlins?  Not a great roster, Ozuna getting older, Stanton contract is scary, terrible prospect situation….

Dave Cameron: The Royals.

Jeries: Mark Buehrle is getting his number retired on Saturday.  Does that grind your gears?

Dave Cameron: Does it bother me that a franchise is honoring a very good player who had a really good career? No.

Tyler: Who will be the Phillies all star representative?

Dave Cameron: Neshek.

Matt: You alluded to the Mariners potentially trading Paxton at the deadline if they fall out of contention. You really think they would move him? What could they get for a dude like that?

Dave Cameron: If they fall far enough out, I think you have to listen.

Dave Cameron: You obviously would want a lot, but with his history of injuries, you don’t necessarily say he’s an unmovable part of the core.

RM: Re: Cargo/Desmond/Reynolds. Going forward, they should all be capable role players, nowhere near star-caliber, but also not black holes. The Rockies could spend a lot of prospects to get something back in a trade, but I’m not sure what position they would try to replace, and how much of an upgrade it would be. They stick with what they have, no doubt.

Dave Cameron: Because they’re likely going to end up in the Wild Card game, I agree that’s what they’ll probably do. You don’t want to mortgage the future to get a slightly better RF for a one-game play in.

Post Malone: Carlos Gonzalez is not a league average hitter you imbecile

Dave Cameron: wRC+, by year, since 2014: 83, 114, 108, 53. You’re right, he might not be a league average hitter. He might be below average.

Post Malone: You ever look at some of the stuff you write and realiz you don’t know a damn thing about what you’re talking about?

Dave Cameron: I do know how to spell realize, at least.

Anon: Which player has the biggest delta between reputation and ability?

Dave Cameron: I’m going to say Carlos Gonzalez, just so Post Malone loses it a little more.

BT: Speaking of the Phillies, they need to inject ANY kind of fun/hope into that stadium right now. The fans are miserable. One seemingly good way would be to promote some dudes…do you think we see the likes of Hoskins/Kingery/Cozens any time soon or are we destined for a full season of this dumpster fire?

Dave Cameron: I’d have promoted Hoskins a while ago. Tommy Joseph isn’t very good.

josh: New York or Chicago style pizza?

Dave Cameron: You mean pizza or lasagna?

Seymour: Considering contract, position, etc…is there a position player combo you’d rather have over Judge/Sanchez right now?

Dave Cameron: Seager/Bellinger isn’t bad.

Dave Cameron: Lindor/Ramirez.

Dave Cameron: Correa/Springer

Dave Cameron: Lots of good combos.

Dave Cameron: Bryant/Rizzo

Grant: Harper/Turner

John: Trout/whoevers playing left

Ayye: Goldshmidt/Lamb?

Dave Cameron: There are so many good players!

Mike M: “Pizza or Lasagna” that’s it, I’m team Post Malone.

Dave Cameron: I mean, I like lasagna. I have enjoyed Chicago style pizza. But it’s not really pizza.

Dave Cameron: It’s like if someone handed you a donut and was like “what do you think of this chocolate cake I made?”

Ayye: Betts/Bogaerts

Dave Cameron: So many good players!

Jacob h cornhole: A lot of Cargo trash being talked here which is partially deserved given his start. However, using wrc+ over previous seasons as your argument doesn’t seem fair to me given that Rockies players are always bogged down in wrc+ based on park factor. What say you?

Dave Cameron: Their wRC+ isn’t bogged down by park factors; wRC+ corrects improper valuations of Rockies hitters by those who don’t use park factors.

Mike M: What team gives up the best prospects at the deadline?

Dave Cameron: Houston

Taylor: Could you see the diamondbacks going after one of the top RP available or do you think they make more middle of the road moves?

Dave Cameron: I would guess they might go more for quantity than quality. Maybe get two or three arms instead of one more expensive guy.

Senile Oliver Stone: Does Houston have a weakness that can be exposed in the playoffs, seems like the’ll be set rotation wise (assuming health) and the lineup and bullpen are unbelievable?

Dave Cameron: I don’t think the line-up is unbelievable. 1B/LF/DH all below average, 3B is okay.

Dave Cameron: Alright, I’m going to go finish up my Andrew McCutchen post.

Dave Cameron: Probably should call it a day before Post Malone has an aneurism.

Dave Cameron: I’m taking the next few days off, but I’ll be back on Monday.