Last night, Jason Motte gave up two bloop singles and took the loss, but likely even more frustrating for the Cardinals not-closer closer, he had to watch the runs score from the dugout. After Ian Kinsler dumped one into no man’s land and then Elvis Andrus punched one into shallow right-center field, LaRussa was essentially faced with four decisions:

A. Leave Motte in to face Josh Hamilton, hoping that a non-healthy Hamilton would be overpowered by his fastball, and then have Motte match up against right-handed batters Adrian Beltre and Michael Young.

B. Intentionally walk Hamilton to load the bases, set up the force at home and a potential double play, and give Motte three consecutive right-handed batters to try and retire – Young, Beltre, and Nelson Cruz.

C. Replace Motte with Arthur Rhodes, get the left-on-left match-up against Hamilton, and then go to the bullpen again for another RHP (in this case, Lance Lynn) to go after Young and Beltre.

D. Bring in Rhodes to face Hamilton, but hide Motte somewhere in the field for that one batter so that he could return to face Young and Beltre.

LaRussa chose option C, and of course, it ended up not working out very well for St. Louis. Was there a better option that would have been more likely to help the Cardinals keep the lead, or at least not head to the bottom of the 9th down by a run?

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“I’m about 50 percent, but I’m going to give you 100 percent of my 50 percent.”

– Josh Hamilton, last week.

Josh Hamilton is hurt. He admitted as much, and watching him during the postseason, it’s been pretty obvious that his pulled groin is affecting him. However, last night should have been the final straw for Ron Washington, as Hamilton’s 8th inning at-bat against Arthur Rhodes revealed a guy who just isn’t healthy enough to take his normal hacks.

Take a look at the swing Hamilton put on that final slider from Rhodes.

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Here we go – the Fall Classic is just a few hours away, and both teams are rested and ready to send their aces to the hill for Game One. Let’s take a look at the match-ups and see how this break’s down from the numbers.

Rangers Starting Pitcher:

C.J. Wilson: 8.1 BB%, 22.5 K%, 49.3% GB%, 3.24 FIP (76 FIP-), 3.41 xFIP (84 xFIP-)

Cardinals Starting Pitcher:

Chris Carpenter: 5.5 BB%, 19.2 K%, 46.6% GB%, 3.06 FIP (82 FIP-), 3.31 xFIP (86 xFIP-)

Wilson and Carpenter are both groundball guys who also can rack up strikeouts if need be, which is why they’re among the best pitchers in baseball. Carpenter’s GB rate this year was actually the lowest he’s posted since 2002, so that probably slightly undersells his ability to get opposing hitters to beat the ball on the ground.

The main difference between the two (besides handedness, of course) is that Carpenter generally has terrific command, while Wilson is prone to bouts of wildness. He was able to get his walks under control this year, but he’s struggled with location during the playoffs, and if he doesn’t keep his fastball down, he’s certainly hittable. Carpenter’s less likely to struggle hitting his spots, but since he’s more reliant on balls in play being turned into outs, his potential path to failure is more about balls just finding holes.

Still, both are legitimate frontline starting pitchers, and there’s not much here to make you think that one team has a legitimate advantage on the mound at the start of the game. In terms of the starting pitching in tonight’s game, I’ll call this a push.

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As I wrote briefly yesterday, I think the Rangers have shown that they are probably the best team in baseball this year whether they win the World Series or not. What I didn’t realize yesterday is that this Rangers team might be historically good.

The 1998 Yankees are generally considered the best team in recent baseball history, as they won 114 regular season games and then went 11-2 in the playoffs, capturing a World Series title with ease. Combining the regular season and the postseason, they had a .714 winning percentage, a mark just shy of the .721 winning percentage posted by the legendary 1927 Yankees. The ’98 pinstriped squad outscored their opponents during the regular season by a stunning 299 runs, ranking #1 in the AL in both runs scored and runs allowed. For modern era teams, they essentially set the benchmark.

The 2011 Rangers can’t stack up next to that Yankees team in terms of winning percentage or even run differential, but an interesting thing happens when you begin to break down the roster into various components – the two teams end up looking very, very similar.

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I can’t remember the last time I wrote something that looked like a “notes column”, but today, I have a bunch of thoughts on different subjects, and so that format seems like the best way to cover them all without writing 10,000 words. On to the loosely-related points that are on my mind today.

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With the Rangers and Cardinals each capturing their respective league championships over the weekend, one central theme of the 2011 postseason has become obvious – how important a dominating bullpen can be in October. Both the Rangers and the Cardinals were let down by sub-par starting pitching, but were rescued by shut-down work from their relief corps, and the depth of both bullpens allowed each manager to have a quick hook with struggling starting pitchers.

Throughout both series, but especially the NLCS, this was treated as something of a surprising development. We were constantly being told that the failure of the Cardinals starters to get beyond the fifth inning was a significant problem, and that if Tony LaRussa didn’t start to get more innings from his rotation, the Cardinals were doomed. Of course, the Cardinals never did get much from their starters in the NLCS (they combined to pitch 24 1/3 innings in six games) but won the series pretty easily anyway, outscoring Milwaukee 43-26 in the process.

The reason for the Cardinals success – besides an offense that put up seven runs per game, which never hurts – was the quality and quantity of work that LaRussa was able to extract from his bullpen; Jason Motte, Fernando Salas, Mark Rzepczynski, Octavio Dotel and Lance Lynn allowed three runs in 24 2/3 innings. The Cardinals essentially shifted innings from their starters to their relievers, and given what we know about the relative performance of starters and relievers, this was absolutely the right call.

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A few weeks ago, we heard a lot of talk about how Atlanta was reaping what they sowed for overworking Craig Kimbrel, Jonny Venters, and Eric O’Flaherty during the first five months of the season. And, of course, the Braves final loss did include a blown save by Kimbrel, which was treated as evidence that he simply had worn down from taking the hill too many times this season.

Interestingly, though, that talk has dried up during the postseason, as relievers have dominated opposing hitters and been the shining stars of October so far. Last night, Jason Motte showed no signs of fatigue as he pumped 99 MPH fastballs past Milwaukee hitters. In fact, his average fastball velocity last night (97.6) was 1.3 MPH faster than his regular season average, despite that game marking his 83rd appearance of the season.

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If the Texas Rangers win Game Three of the ALCS tonight, the Tigers will find themselves down 3-0 in the series and would face elimination tomorrow. Rick Porcello is the scheduled starter for Detroit in that game, but there has been some rumblings about moving Justin Verlander up and have him start tomorrow if the Tigers season is on the line.

Jim Leyland won’t even consider doing that, however.

“He’s pitching Game 5,” Leyland said prior to a 7-3 loss on Monday in Game 2. “That’s a slam dunk. That is the end of the conversation.”

“What people don’t realize is, you’ve got to win four games,” Leyland said. “Nobody might believe this — the public, the TV people might not want to and everybody else — but let me tell you something: At this point, from what I’ve seen, pitching Justin Verlander on the fifth day is two-fold. It’s the best thing for Justin Verlander, and it’s the best thing for the team. Trust me when I tell you that.

“In my heart, it is a no-brainer. It might read better if I said I changed my mind. Everybody would love it. But it’s not the best thing for him, and it’s not the best thing for this team. He needs the day. That is a no-brainer.”

Leyland is going to get some grief for this stance if the Tigers get eliminated with Porcello on the hill and Verlander in the dugout, but in this instance, he’s exactly right.

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