A Quick Note on Relievers Wearing Down
A few weeks ago, we heard a lot of talk about how Atlanta was reaping what they sowed for overworking Craig Kimbrel, Jonny Venters, and Eric O’Flaherty during the first five months of the season. And, of course, the Braves final loss did include a blown save by Kimbrel, which was treated as evidence that he simply had worn down from taking the hill too many times this season.
Interestingly, though, that talk has dried up during the postseason, as relievers have dominated opposing hitters and been the shining stars of October so far. Last night, Jason Motte showed no signs of fatigue as he pumped 99 MPH fastballs past Milwaukee hitters. In fact, his average fastball velocity last night (97.6) was 1.3 MPH faster than his regular season average, despite that game marking his 83rd appearance of the season.
It’s not just Motte either. Mike Adams has now made 82 appearances this year, and he’s hardly turned to mush in the playoffs. John Axford is at 78 and still dominating; K-Rod is at 76. These guys are all now in Kimbrel workload territory, and they’re still blowing hitters away in mid-October. Even Alexi Ogando, whose second half struggles were attributed to him wearing down as a starting pitcher, has been throwing harder than ever out of the bullpen and showing no signs of fatigue in October.
It is hard to watch the never-ending stream of dominating relievers trotting in from various bullpens and accept the idea that relief pitchers are running on fumes at the end of the year. If anything, we’re seeing guys throwing harder than they did in the regular season, and the performance of the playoff bullpens has been nothing short of remarkable.
The idea that relievers can’t pitch 75 times in a season without breaking down at the end just isn’t supported by historical evidence, and it isn’t supported by what we’re seeing right now. If there’s one lesson to take away from the postseason so far, it’s that the idea of the poor overworked relief pitcher is just a myth.
Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.
I agree with Dave’s general points, but I wonder if the pattern of using pitchers two, three, or four (thanks to rain) days in a row – often for high-stress outings – will prove more taxing than the total number of appearances. Both injury and attrition can be acute as well as accumulative.
I agree w/ the general point here that the Atlanta bullpen woes were overblown, but we’re also 2 weeks past the end of the regular season. I have to imagine that usage rate is more important than simply the number of appearances over a variable amount of time to determine if a pitcher is suffering from fatigue or not.
Length of season is a factor as well. The minor league season is around a month shorter than that of MLB. This has a noticable effect on rookies.
I would love to see someone do a writeup on this.
I don’t have any research to back this up, but it seems anecdotally as though certain usage patterns (including having a guy warm up and sit down) lead to arm injuries. In other words, there could be a world of difference between two guys both of whom make 82 appearances if, for example, one nearly always had a day off (as in, not throwing at all) between appearances and the other pitched in 82 games but warmed up in 105. For that reason looking at the number of appearances a reliever makes in a vacuum is silly and unlikely to be predictive of much of anything. But that shouldn’t be taken to mean that it’s impossible to overwork a reliever.
Motte did wear down temporarily in the final weeks because they used him several days in a row. Now, he’s pitching every one or two days and then taking a day off. It’s a HUGE difference.
All of the relievers you mentioned are at least five years older than Kimbrel, who is twenty-three.
Also most people who saw Craig at the end of the season will tell you that it was his location and not velocity which was causing him problems. Venters seemed to have some mechanical issues which allegedly affected his slider.
Jonathan Broxton’s struggles all seem to go back to a stretch of games in 2010 where he pitched in 4 out of 5 games, warmed up in the one where he didn’t pitch, and was left in to make 40-something pitches against the Yankees in the ninth inning in a non-save situation in the last of the five. Thanks Joe Torre, thanks a billion.
Show the historical evidence rather than just citing 4 guys. What those 4 guys have done is largely meaningless.
And what three guys did over one month isn’t?
It’s obviously meaningless. When did I say otherwise?
Benoit has pitched an inning or two the last three days and been no worse for the wear.
Because all relievers are the same? It can be true that Venters and Kimbrel wore out down the stretch without it being true that all relievers wear down under similar workloads.
Having watched every single Braves game this year, it was pretty apparent that Venters did indeed wear down as the season progressed. Kimbrel actually looked very good up until the final three weeks of the season, where he was in uncharted waters in terms of prior experience pitching that much. It’s just a shame that most will remember Kimbrel for blowing those leads at the end of the season, when he was the most dominant closer in baseball for a long stretch.
Venters’ raw stuff took a dip as he pitched in virtually every close game down the stretch. He started walking more batters and became more erratic in the last month. Fredi continuing to use him almost every night, when it was apparent he needed more rest, was the one real bad decision made by the Braves during the collapse.
I know this is fangraphs and “lol emotions and stuff that can’t be defined through statistics” but I DO think that the Braves pen suffered from being over worked. When it’s late in the season, you’re young (as all 3 are), and you’re team is sliding, I bet it’s harder to “get up” than if you’re Motte, your team came back and is now in the playoffs pitching in front of 40,000 screaming fans. Just a thought.
“The idea that relievers can’t pitch 75 times in a season without breaking down at the end just isn’t supported by historical evidence, and it isn’t supported by what we’re seeing right now. If there’s one lesson to take away from the postseason so far, it’s that the idea of the poor overworked relief pitcher is just a myth.”
How about SHOWING the historical evidence that doesn’t support it?…
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