Introduction
#50 – #46

#45 – Miguel Montero, C, Arizona

Somewhat overlooked because he began the season on the DL, Montero has been a monster since returning to the line-up, carrying over last year’s success and then some. At 26, he’s a quality defensive catcher who can hit for power from the left side, and he’s become a more disciplined hitter as well. He now heads into the prime of his career as one of the best all around backstops in the game, and only his two remaining years of club control keep him this low on the list. Given the diminished salaries he’ll command and the value he will produce, however, he’s the kind of player that every team would covet.

#44 – Brian Matusz, SP, Baltimore

The best of Baltimore’s young arms, Matusz is one of the game’s best young left-handed starters. Despite pitching in the American League East, he’s more than holding his own with a four pitch repertoire that keeps hitters off balance. He doesn’t light up the radar gun like some other arms on this list, but he has a better idea of how to pitch than most. Don’t judge him on just his major league numbers to date – at 23, there’s far better days ahead. Given that the Orioles have him for five years beyond this one, it would take an overwhelming offer to pry him out of their hands.

#43 – Ben Zobrist, 2B/OF, Tampa Bay

Considering that he was never going to repeat his 2009 season, this has been about as good a follow-up as you could hope for. The surprising power hasn’t carried over, but everything else is still well above average, and the total package is a high quality player that is as versatile as any in the game. The Rays took a risk in locking him up before he had a chance to repeat his monster 2009 season, but it looks like a sound investment, as they have him signed through 2013 at bargain salaries and then hold team options for both 2014 and 2015.

#42 – Geovany Soto, C, Chicago

Like Montero, Soto is a young, offensive backstop with the ability to stay behind the plate. He’s rebounded from last year’s disappointing sophomore campaign, offering his usual blend of patience and power while inexplicably hitting eighth for the Cubs. Given his ability to drive the ball, he could hit in the middle of the order for most teams, and when you have a 27-year-old cacher who can provide that kind of punch, you have a highly valuable piece. The Cubs will control his rights for three more years, and it shouldn’t take them that long to figure out that he’s better than Koyie Hill.

#41 – Yovani Gallardo, SP, Milwaukee

The Brewers ace is a bit of a challenge to rank. On the one hand, he’s one of the better arms in baseball at age 24 and already signed to a long term, below market contract. On the other hand, knee surgery has limited his career to just over 400 innings pitched, and now he’s back on the DL with an oblique injury. With a longer track record of success, teams would be more willing to project him as a future ace, but he’s yet to crack 200 innings in a season and looks unlikely to do so again this year. Gallardo has the upside to rank much higher, but the injuries and backloaded contract would make teams think twice before giving up the farm to get him from Milwaukee.

And we’re off. Introduction here if you missed it.

#50 – Domonic Brown, OF, Philadelphia

The guy that most people consider the best prospect left in the minors, Brown is also the guy that was famously off-limits in the Roy Halladay trade. When your organization won’t trade you, straight up, for the best pitcher in baseball (who is signing a three year, below market deal as part of the trade, no less), you’ve got quite a bit of value. There’s a pretty good chance that Brown could be a solid major league player tomorrow, and his physical size and abilities give him serious upside. Young power hitters who can also handle themselves on defense are pretty rare and highly coveted.

#49 – Phil Hughes, SP, New York

The former top prospect started to live up to his billing last year and has carried it over to 2010, establishing himself as a solid middle-of-the-rotation arm at age 24. He has good command of quality stuff, and while he’s a pretty extreme flyball guy, he makes it work by racking up a lot of strikeouts. That he’s been able to succeed in a park that’s about as poor a fit for his skillset as possible (all 11 of his home runs allowed this year have come at Yankee Stadium) is highly impressive. Considering that he’s under team control through 2013 at arbitration prices, he’s quite the bargain.

#48 – Ricky Romero, SP, Toronto

Romero has stumbled of late, but his emergence as one of the better young left-handed pitchers in the game couldn’t have come at a better time for the Jays. While he’ll never entirely replace Halladay, he’s doing a pretty decent impression for a 25-year-old in his second year in the big leagues. A groundball lefty with a plus change-up, Romero is able to miss enough bats to compensate for the fact that he doesn’t have great command. He’s not an ace, but considering he’ll make something close to the league minimum again next year before becoming arbitration eligible, he’s providing a lot of return on the Blue Jays investment.

#47 – Martin Prado, 2B, Atlanta

The ultimate performance over tools guy in the big leagues right now, Prado’s success is a testament to how pedigree doesn’t mean everything. This is a guy who hit 15 home runs in 2,119 minor league plate appearances, and was simply not considered much of a prospect when he got to the big leagues. However, for the last three years, he’s been one of the best second baseman in baseball, adding some power to his already good contact rates and turning himself into a legitimate All-Star this season. He’s headed for his prime years as an already good player, and the Braves have him under control for three more seasons. He might be the most unexpected guy on this list, but he’s earned his spot here.

#46 – Mat Latos, SP, San Diego

Latos wasn’t great last year as a rookie, but his second stint through the National League has been a lot more successful. The fastball command that was his hallmark in the minors has returned, and the slider is good enough to give him a strikeout pitch on most days. As a result, he’s having a terrific season as a 22-year-old, and while he’s benefiting from Petco and the National League, he fares well even after you adjust for those external effects. With five more years of team control, the Padres have to be thrilled with how quickly Latos has developed and just how much value they’ll be able to get from him before he heads to free agency.

This post has been updated to once again acknowledge Bill Simmons as the originator for this series, which I adapted for MLB beginning in 2005. Credit has been given to him in every year since, but was unfortunately left out of this introduction at the time it was published. All credit for the idea goes to Bill.

They say time flies when you’re having fun, so the last year must have been a blast, because I can’t believe it’s been 12 months since I was getting lampooned for leaving Pablo Sandoval off the 2009 Trade Value series. So far, I’m okay with that decision, but it is time for us to re-evaluate and do it all over again. And so, over the next week, we’ll take a look at which 50 players in baseball have the most value to franchises besides their own. The criteria, as I stated last year, is as follows:

Essentially, the idea is to take all the information that goes into encapsulating a player’s value to an organization – his present skills, his future potential, how long he’s under club control, the expected cost of paying him over that time, and the risks involved with projecting his future performances – and figure out which players currently have the most trade value in baseball. The #1 guy wouldn’t get traded, straight up, for any other player in baseball. The #10 guy is someone who his organization would call untouchable, but if one of the nine guys above him was made available, they’d rethink that stance. You get the idea.

You can find the entire list from last summer here, and the trade value category has all of the individual posts, where we summarize the thoughts on five players at a time. We’ll follow the same format this year, running the series all week and wrapping it up next Monday with the top five.

Again, I want to emphasize that this is a post about trade value, not a ranking of player performance. How well they do on the field is obviously a significant factor, but teams don’t simply make deals based on how good a guy is right now. There are numerous factors, of which contract status is perhaps the most important. There’s a reason Cliff Lee has been traded three times in the last year, and it’s not because teams don’t want him. So, just because a player is not on this list does not mean I don’t think highly of his abilities (or that I hate the team he plays for). In fact, there are some tremendous players who didn’t make the cut. Here’s a few of the guys who just didn’t make it and a quick explanation as to why.

Carlos Gonzalez, CF, Colorado – There aren’t many guys who can play a legit center field and hit the baseball a long way, but Gonzalez brings both skills to the table. Unfortunately, the rest of the game isn’t quite as refined, and his approach at the plate is a problem. His aggressiveness can and will be used against him, and when pitchers adjust, he’ll need to as well.

Jaime Garcia, SP, St. Louis – The young LHP is having a tremendous rookie year for the Cardinals, but after posting a 70 percent ground ball rate in April, he’s become far more ordinary since. Since he doesn’t rack up that many strikeouts, he needs to either improve his command or lead the league in GB% in order to sustain his present results, and we haven’t seen that he can do either just yet. If he has another few months like his first one of the year, he’ll be on this list next year, but we need to see more.

Adrian Gonzalez, 1B, San Diego – There’s nothing wrong with Gonzalez’s skillset, but he’s a case where contracts come into play. He’s a bargain for 2011 at just $4.5 million in salary, but then he’s a free agent and he’s looking for a huge, huge paycheck. The Padres could get a lot for one year of Gonzalez, but I don’t think any of the teams who have guys on this list would swap them for the time that is left on his contract.

Joe Mauer, C, Minnesota – Another great player done in by his contract. I think he’ll end up being worth the big deal he signed with the Twins, but the fact is that there are only a couple of teams in baseball that can absorb the risk that comes along with a contract like that, and those teams wouldn’t create enough demand to drive up the price in talent to give the Twins a premium return for their star. He’s a tremendously valuable player, but he’s an expensive one, and it’s hard to see any team giving up a high quality, cheap young player while also taking on that kind of financial commitment.

Brett Anderson, SP, Oakland – As Bryan Smith will tell you, I am an Anderson fanboy. He is pretty much everything I love in a pitcher, as a lefty with good command of terrific stuff who gets both groundballs and strikeouts. The only he thing he doesn’t have is health. He’s on the DL for the second time this year with arm problems, and that is a huge red flag for any young pitcher. A healthy Anderson ranks very highly on this list, but unfortunately, a healthy Anderson doesn’t exist right now.

Who did make the cut? Come back at 5 pm for the guys who make up the #50 to #46 spots, and then we’ll do two posts a day for the rest of the week to get us up to #6. You can then have all weekend to speculate on the top 5, which will be revealed next Monday.

Bryan Smith will take a more specific look at some of the prospects and how they performed in the Futures Game in a subsequent post, and so instead of trying to add to what he’s already done, I’m going to take a different tact. Here are my somewhat random observations from being at the game.

Bryan touched on this in the last podcast, but MLB has to do away with the US vs World format. There is no reason to separate the teams that way, and it leads to a ridiculous imbalance that gives us a game that is far less than what it could be. In talking to baseball people at the game, it was pretty much unanimous that this year’s World Team was as bad as any in recent year, and watching them take BP was almost painful. Realistically, Brett Lawrie was the only guy who started for the World Team who could have cracked the US line-up, and he was followed in the World batting order by eight guys who probably didn’t deserve to even be at the game.

Just throw this format away, go to an AL/NL match-up, and give those of us who enjoy this event the game that it should be. I get that there are extenuating circumstances that keep this from being a true showcase of the 40 or 50 best guys in the minors each summer, but we don’t need to compound those unavoidable issues with a format that forces guys with no major league future to take a spot from far more interesting players. Any format that makes you feature Wilkin Ramirez is irreparably broken. Let’s just get rid of this US vs World theme and start over.

Moving on to guys who belonged here, Mike Trout. Almost all of my pre-game discussions inevitably drifted to how good he was, and that was before he put on a show in both BP and the game itself. Sometimes, the hype train runs out of control on guys like this, but with him, it’s deserved. If he’s not the best prospect in the game right now, he’s close to it, and he doesn’t turn 19 until next month. Crazy good.

You know what’s not crazy good though? Between innings “entertainment” consisting of big screen pong, complete with ridiculously annoying sound effects and no explanation of why we were getting tortured by this randomness. Donkey Kong wasn’t much better. Whichever person in the Angels organization gave that idea the green light deserves a sentence of having to watch every Scott Kazmir outing from now to infinity.

Anyway, I would say a good time was had by all, but I think a few people trying to arrive early for the Legends/Celebrity softball game weren’t so amused to find an actual game being played by kids they’d never heard of still in progress. Besides those folks, however, the game was generally successful, though could obviously be improved upon. Getting to watch the game with Bryan, as well as Rich and Joe Lederer (both good folks), made it even more enjoyable. I look forward to attending more of these in person, and can’t wait for next year’s AL/NL version – right, MLB?

As originally reported by Joel Sherman, and confirmed by most others, the Mariners are on the verge of trading Cliff Lee to the Yankees for a package of prospects headlined by Jesus Montero. For the Mariners, this is the kind of deal they simply could not pass up.

Once the team fell out of the race in May, trading Lee became inevitable. His value as the best pitcher in the American League ensured that the team would get significantly more from trading him than letting him walk and taking the draft picks. The only questions were when Lee would be moved, where he would go, and what the team would get in return. The answers appear to be today, New York, and a lot.

Montero is a premium prospect whose value comes from having one of the best offensive profiles of any 20-year-old on the planet. For a team that is last in the league in scoring runs, this has obvious appeal. Given the team’s woes behind the plate the last few years, the fact that he’s ostensibly a catcher also adds to his value, though I’m one of the disbelievers who don’t think he’ll stick there.

The rest of the offer is reported to be 23-year-old infielder David Adams and a third guy. I’ll let our resident prospect gurus get into their futures, but suffice it to say that they aren’t Montero quality pieces. He’s the get in this deal.

So, how’d the Mariners do on this deal? Better than expected, I’d say. If the blueprint for a premium rental pitcher at the deadline was the CC Sabathia trade from two years ago, you have to think the M’s are getting a bit more than Cleveland did. Matt LaPorta was a fine prospect, but probably a good step behind what Jesus Montero is right now. When Lee was originally being shopped, the idea that they could get a prospect of Montero’s quality for him seemed unlikely.

And, of course, there’s the reality of what the Mariners gave up to get Cliff Lee in the first place. Going from Phillippe Aumont, Tyson Gillies, and J.C. Ramirez to Montero (and other stuff) is a substantial upgrade in terms of future value. The Mariners are getting more in this deal than they gave up, though that’s mostly a function of how bad a deal Ruben Amaro made this winter.

Over all, this has to be viewed as a win from the Mariners perspective. They rented Lee, saw his value increase, and then spun him for more than they paid originally. The rest of the season hasn’t worked out well, but this series of transactions is a net positive for the Mariners.

Last year’s free agent market had a surplus of one thing – talented starting pitchers with health concerns. The market was flooded with guys who had previous success but were battling questions about the conditions of their arms, and were going to settle for one year deals because of it. And, pretty much without fail, they’ve all been busts.

Ben Sheets, Rich Harden, Justin Duchscherer, Chien-Ming Wang, and Erik Bedard were given a total of $25 million in guaranteed money as free agents. They have produced a grand total of +0.3 wins of value as a group, so they’re on pace to have bilked their teams out of $20 million over the course of the season. Now, things could change, and maybe Bedard or Wang will pitch well down the stretch or Sheets will have a great finish to the year, but so far, they’ve essentially been a waste of cash. It gets even worse if you include Brandon Webb’s $8 million option that the Diamondbacks exercised to keep him from hitting the market.

I think most of us thought that these deals were, by and large, good risk/reward propositions. Sheets got a bit more money than expected, but still, his contract wasn’t seen as too far out of line with what he could produce. And yet, the whole group has basically been a failure. It makes me wonder if most of us are overvaluing perceived upside in pitcher valuations.

After all, arm injuries don’t just sideline players, but they also diminish velocity and command, leading to lower levels of effectiveness. Even though Sheets has avoided the DL, he’s still not what he used to be. Harden lost enough off his fastball that he can’t really challenge hitters anymore, leading his always problematic walk rate even higher. And the rest of the group has spent nearly the entire season on the DL.

Upside is a tricky thing. It is the perception of what a guy could be, not necessarily a realistic expectation of what he will be. So far, in 2010, teams who spent on upside have been burned by doing so. I would imagine the money won’t flow so freely for guys with health concerns this winter, and perhaps that reaction is the correct one.

Justin Morneau has the highest WAR in baseball right now, but you probably knew that. Know who is second?

Josh Johnson. With another dominating start last night, the Marlins ace has now thrown 122 innings and is running a 2.33 FIP. Yes, that’s likely to rise over the course of the season (his HR/FB is just 3.8 percent), but for the first half of the season, he’s been basically unhittable.

However, this post is not to praise Johnson as much as it is to ask his agent “what were you thinking?” Six months ago, he signed a four year extension with the Marlins that will pay him $39 million through 2013. He would have been a free agent at the end of the 2012 season, so he gave up two years of free agency in order to sign the deal.

Two other pitchers with the same amount of service time signed long term contracts this winter as well. Felix Hernandez got $78 million over five years, and Justin Verlander got $80 million over five years, both getting about 60 percent more in annual salary than Johnson in addition to an extra year on the end of their deal.

Johnson didn’t have the same track record as either of those two, but he did have – and still has – similar talent levels. He’s out-pitching both of them right now, in fact. If Johnson had not signed a long term deal last winter, he’d be staring at one of the largest arbitration payouts in history this winter, and he’d have enough leverage to command a deal equal to those signed by Hernandez and Verlander a year ago.

Instead, he left a lot of money on the table. A lot. Here’s what he said at the time of the deal:

“I’m excited,” Johnson said. “It sets up me and my family for life. One of the best parts is knowing where I’m going to be the next four years. I won’t have to hear about any trade rumors or anything like that. I’m happy to be in South Florida.”

Johnson was clearly motivated to avoid going year to year, valuing long term security and peace of mind so highly that he signed a contract that makes him one of the most underpaid players in the game, relative to his ability. The next time you hear someone say that players are just all about the money nowadays, remind them of Johnson and his contract. Just like the rest of us, players value a variety of things, and they make decisions on where to work based on a variety of reasons.

Sorry about the lateness – some internet problems on my end.

Same premise as this afternoon, only we’re dealing with the Senior Circuit this time around.

Andrew McCutchen, CF
Chase Utley, 2B
Hanley Ramirez, SS
Albert Pujols, 1B
Adrian Gonzalez, DH
Matt Holliday, LF
Ryan Zimmerman, 3B
Jayson Werth, RF
Brian McCann, C

Bench: Yadier Molina (C), Joey Votto (1B/PH), David Wright (3B), Jose Reyes (SS/PR), Colby Rasmus (OF)

Roy Halladay, SP

Bullpen: Jonathan Broxton (R), Billy Wagner (L), Luke Gregerson (R), Hong-Chih Kuo (L), Sean Marshall (L), Matt Belisle (R, long guy)

With the American League putting a left-handed Cliff Lee on the mound, the NL line-up leans pretty heavily to the right-hand side. It would anyway, as most of the NL’s best hitters are right-handed, but it would be interesting to see how the match-ups unfolded after Lee left the game. For those wondering about the starter/reserve decisions, Zimmerman gets the nod due to his better defense, which is more important with Halladay’s sinker, while Gonzalez edges out Votto because I had to pick someone – there’s no wrong answer between those two.

In terms of in-game management, you’d probably pinch-hit Wright for McCann at some point when the AL had an LHP on the mound and Votto for McCutchen if there was a righty on the hill, but besides that, you’re not making a whole lot of changes. Even using Reyes as a pinch-runner would be tougher because you’d lose your only reserve shortstop, but the need to have both a RH and LH bat off the bench for pinch hitting limits the flexibility.

What the team lacks on the position player side of things, though, they make up for on the mound. Even as good as the AL hitters are, I don’t see them putting together a lot of offense against Halladay and that bullpen. An extreme groundball guy with great command being relieved by four guys who are nearly impossible to hit, plus a couple of nifty multi-inning relievers from each side if the game goes into extra innings? That’d be quite the challenge for American League hitters to overcome.

All told, this would be a fascinating game to watch. If MLB wants to give home field advantage to one league or another based on one game, how about having this affair right after the World Series ends? Who wouldn’t watch that? It’d be great theatre.

Next week, the AL and NL will hook up for an exhibition game. MLB is still pushing the “it counts” theme since home field advantage in the World Series is on the line, but no one treats the game like it really matters; the best players come out halfway through the game, guys are used out of position, and the roster is assembled with goals that directly conflict with putting the best team on the field. So, no, it doesn’t count.

But what if it did? What would the roster look like if the American League and National League were to play one game that really mattered, and their singular goal was to win that day? That’s what we’re going to take a look at today.

Below is my take on the 21 guys that would comprise the AL Roster. We won’t bother filling out the #2-#5 starter spots in the rotation, since this is just a one game deal, and we’re not going to convert starters into relievers for a day. The rosters are put together with not just the goal of having the best players, but the ones who make the most sense from a line-up construction/match-up standpoint, as well as tactical advantages for late game maneuvering. If the AL had to win just one game, this is the team I think they would put on the field.

Carl Crawford, LF
Kevin Youkilis, 1B
Joe Mauer, C
Miguel Cabrera, DH
Josh Hamilton, RF
Evan Longoria, 3B
Robinson Cano, 2B
Derek Jeter, SS
Ichiro Suzuki, CF

Bench: Victor Martinez (C/1B), Justin Morneau (1B/PH), Ben Zobrist (UT), Brett Gardner (OF/PR), Elvis Andrus (SS/PR)

Cliff Lee, SP

Bullpen: Mariano Rivera (R), Matt Thornton (L), Neftali Feliz (R), Scott Downs (L), Rafael Soriano (R), David Hernandez (R, long guy)

The line-up is balanced, going from left/right from top to bottom, and it gets high on base guys in front of the guys who can pound the ball over the wall. Even Roy Halladay would have a tough time getting through that line-up too many times. Because of the high quality of hitters, you won’t do much pinch-hitting, which is why Morneau is the only “big bat” guy on the bench. You would probably have him pinch hit for Jeter against an RHP in a high leverage situation at some point in the game, which is why there are two guys on the bench who can play shortstop.

Gardner is on the team to steal a base, as he’s probably the best runner in the game right now. There are enough slow guys on the team that it’s tough to say who he would run for, which is why a guy like Zobrist is necessary, since you don’t know which position you would be subbing out when you need a late game stolen base. Having the guy who can play anywhere gives you a lot of flexibility. Martinez gets the nod over all the other catchers because he can also play first base, so you can pinch run for Youkilis after you’ve used Morneau as a pinch-hitter and still have a first baseman.

The pitching side is more straight forward. Lee is the best pitcher in the league right now, and should be able to give you six innings, even against a loaded NL line-up. Rivera is the obvious pick to close out the game, and then it’s just a mix of good RH and LH guys to get it to him. David Hernandez gets the call as a long reliever who can bring some heat if the game goes to extra innings and you need a guy to stay out there until it ends – his overall numbers aren’t great, but he’s been lights out since moving to the bullpen and the stuff is certainly there.

Could the NL put 21 guys on the field to match this squad? We’ll find out at 5 pm.