On behalf of Joe Girardi and Charlie Manuel, who were overcome with temporary insanity, I’d like to publicly apologize to the following players.

Francisco Liriano, +4.2 WAR
Joey Votto, +3.6 WAR
Kevin Youkilis, +3.2 WAR
Jered Weaver, +3.2 WAR
Alex Rios, +3.1 WAR
Josh Willingham, +3.1 WAR
Ryan Zimmerman, +3.0 WAR
Felix Hernandez, +2.9 WAR

By any standard you want to use, these eight have to be on the team. You can’t have a 2010 All-Star game without those guys. What a disaster.

I wasn’t planning on putting up my picks for the All-Star Game this year, but I’ve found myself with a little unexpected free time, and what better way to spend it than by writing about 68 players who will spend between 5 and 60 minutes playing in an exhibition game next week?

As you will see, I lean a bit more towards 2010 performance than true talent level as I believe guys who are having big first halves should be rewarded, however, both are factors. Oh, and if you’re wondering who got bumped so that I could make the game more entertaining by putting Strasburg on the roster, the last guy cut was Matt Belisle. Raise your hand if you’d rather watch him pitch than Strasburg? Yeah, that’s what I thought.

Anyway, without further adieu, here’s my picks for the game.

American League

Starters

C – Joe Mauer, Minnesota
1B – Justin Morneau, Minnesota
2B – Robinson Cano, New York
SS – Elvis Andrus, Texas
3B – Adrian Beltre, Boston
LF – Carl Crawford, Tampa Bay
CF – Alex Rios, Chicago
RF – Josh Hamilton, Texas
DH – Vladimir Guerrero, Texas
SP – Cliff Lee, Seattle

Reserves:

C – Kurt Suzuki, Oakland; Carlos Santana, Cleveland
1B – Miguel Cabrera, Detroit; Kevin Youkilis, Boston
2B – Ben Zobrist, Tampa Bay
SS – Derek Jeter, New York; Alex Gonzalez, Toronto
3B – Evan Longoria, Tampa Bay; Michael Young, Texas
OF – Franklin Gutierrez, Seattle; Ichiro Suzuki, Seattle; David DeJesus, Kansas City; Nick Markakis, Baltimore

SP – Francisco Liriano, Minnesota; Jered Weaver, Anaheim; Jon Lester, Boston; Felix Hernandez, Seattle; Justin Verlander, Detroit; Phil Hughes, New York; Clay Buchholz, Boston; David Price, Tampa Bay
RP: Matt Thornton, Chicago; Mariano Rivera, New York; Darren Oliver, Texas

National League

Starters

C – Miguel Olivo, Colorado
1B – Joey Votto, Cincinnati
2B – Martin Prado, Atlanta
SS – Hanley Ramirez, Florida
3B – David Wright, New York
LF – Matt Holliday, St. Louis
CF – Andres Torres, San Francisco
RF – Jayson Werth, Philadelphia
DH – Albert Pujols, St. Louis
SP – Roy Halladay, Philadelphia

Reserves

C – Brian McCann; Atlanta; Geovany Soto, Chicago
1B – Adrian Gonzalez, 1B
2B – Brandon Phillips, Cincinnati; Dan Uggla, Florida; Kelly Johnson, Arizona
SS – Rafael Furcal, Los Angeles
3B – Ryan Zimmerman, Washington; Scott Rolen, Cincinnati
OF – Josh Willingham, Washington; Marlon Byrd, Chicago; Colby Rasmus, St. Louis

SP – Josh Johnson, Florida; Ubaldo Jimenez, Colorado; Yovanni Gallarado, Milwaukee; Adam Wainwright, St. Louis; Roy Oswalt, Houston; Jaime Garcia, St. Louis; Stephen Strasburg, Washington
RP: Jonathan Broxton, Los Angeles; Luke Gregerson, San Diego; Brian Wilson, San Francisco; Evan Meek, Pittsburgh

Overview

I’ve held off on posting this one, because this is probably the most complicated decision any front office has to make this summer. The Padres are in first place and are tied with the Braves for the best record in the National League. They have a 2 1/2 game lead over the second place Dodgers, so even if they struggle in July, they should be close to the top of the division by month’s end. So, this should be pretty easy, right?

Buy or Sell

It isn’t that easy. There are plenty of reasons to think that San Diego can’t keep this up, as their success has leaned heavily on guys who are likely playing over their heads. Their starting rotation has a 3.37 ERA, second lowest in baseball, but their FIP of 4.00 is just 10th best in the game. Yes, some of that is good defense, but a bigger part of their run prevention has been leaving runners on base. Their starters have a 77.7% LOB% – again, the highest in baseball.

That’s just not going to last. In most years, no rotation is able to post a full year LOB% of higher than about 75 percent, and while that may seem like a small drop, it doesn’t take much of a change in performance with men on base to make a large impact on wins and losses. The Padres need to expect their current players to produce worse results over the rest of the year, and that complicates what they should do.

Is it worth sacrificing future talent to make a run that may not materialize anyway, especially for a team that is widely expected to trade Adrian Gonzalez this winter? Or, do they owe it to their fan base to make a run at this thing while they still have their star first baseman?

I don’t know. I don’t envy Jed Hoyer, that’s for sure. This is a tough decision to make. You want to take advantage of every chance your team gives you to play in October, but at the same time, the Padres don’t have a large enough margin for error to sacrifice young talent unless they’re sure they can continue to win. And, given how the team is winning games, it’s tough to have that confidence.

It’s a good thing that the deadline isn’t July 2nd, so he has another month to gather information and figure out which way he should go. But, I have a feeling that this may not be an easier decision then than it is now, and it’s probably the hardest call any GM is going to have to make in 2010.

On The Farm

Their farm system has some good pieces, though most of it is several years from the majors. You can be sure that the Padres won’t be moving guys like Donovon Tate or Simon Castro, but they have some interesting secondary prospects who could go in a move that significantly upgraded the team. It’s just tough to see the Padres trading too much out of the farm, given that they’re still somewhat in rebuilding mode.

Budget

Unbelievably, the Padres have $1.1 million in committed money for 2011, and that entire sum represents buyouts of team options – one for Jon Garland and one for Yorvit Torrealba. They hold one on Adrian Gonzalez that will obviously be picked up, but he could very easily be traded this winter. Most of the rest of the roster is either arbitration eligible (Heath Bell, Mike Adams, Scott Hairston) or under club control, meaning that they’ll make something close to the league minimum next year.

So, while the Padres don’t have a large budget, they should have some money to play with, simply because they haven’t spent any of next year’s budget yet. They won’t be players for Roy Oswalt, you wouldn’t think, but they may be able to afford to take on some 2011 money if it helps get them a player who can help them win now and in the future.

Buster Olney sent out the following messages on twitter last night:

From a rival high-ranking executive, about the D-Backs’ changes: “That is a brutal decision. They just tore apart one of the best front offices in baseball.”

Another GM on the D-Backs’ change at GM: “Absolutely crazy.”

That, essentially, was my reaction, as well, to the news that the Diamondbacks have fired Josh Byrnes. Yes, Arizona is in last place in the NL West, struggling through another tough year of disappointment. Since the start of last year, the D’backs have won just 42 percent of their games. It’s been a rough couple of years in the desert.

But, still, barring some kind of interpersonal communication problem or issue with ownership that we’re not aware of, this decision seems unjustified at best. As you can see from Olney’s quotes, Byrnes is one of the most respected men in the game, and this just seems like a massive overreaction.

Arizona’s problems this year are not hard to pinpoint. Their bullpen, as a group, has been a disaster, one reaching nearly epic proportions. Their relievers’ WPA total? -7.45. The Brewers have the next worst total, but come in at just -2.91. The D’Backs bullpen has been almost as harmful to their team’s chances of winning as the next three worst bullpens combined.

A bad bullpen is painful to watch, and few things are more frustrating than watching a lead evaporate at the end of a game. However, relievers are also the most fickle of all major league performers, and no amount of preparation and good management can insulate a team from a bullpen meltdown. As a group, the Arizona bullpen has thrown 205 innings. Over a sample that small, weird things can happen, such as usually relieable Chad Qualls posting a .452 BABIP.

What, exactly, should Byrnes have done to prevent this from happening? It’s not like they were abysmal a year ago and he should have seen this coming. No one could have seen this coming. And it’s not like hiring a new GM is going to make these guys pitch better. Sure, you could argue that perhaps he should have done a better job of building his bullpen, but is that really something you want to overhaul your front office over?

The team, as a whole, isn’t in bad shape, in large part due to some of the moves Byrnes has made. Their mostly young, cost-controlled position players have produced +11.7 WAR this year, fourth best in the National League. They’ve got a good young offensive core with Justin Upton, Chris Young, Mark Reynolds, Miguel Montero, Stephen Drew, and even Kelly Johnson, who was probably the bargain of the winter.

Pitching wise, they have some holes at the back end of the rotation, and obviously the bullpen needs an overhaul, but these are not hard fixes that require a change in organizational philosophy. This is not wholesale failure to develop talent and put good players on the field, like we see with other organizations who, it should be noted, have been far more patient with their GMs.

Someone asked me in a chat last week if I thought Arizona needed to make big changes, and I said no, that this had the look of a team that has a few tweaks and some better luck away from being able to challenge for the NL West title again. After firing their GM and putting their front office in limbo, I’m not so sure anymore. This has all the markings of a panic decision by a frustrated ownership group that may not be committed enough to building an organization the right way without overreacting to things that simply can’t be controlled.

Perhaps there’s more to this story, and Byrnes was fired for insubordination or something of the sort. We can’t know all the workings behind the decision, so I’ll withhold some judgment, but if this was truly a decision made because of the D’Backs’ record the last few years, then I think their ownership just royally screwed up.

Overview

While it’s a bit unusual, the Giants kicked off their legitimate run at the NL West last night by trading away their starting catcher. By moving Bengie Molina to the Rangers, they can now re-arrange their line-up in such a way that will let them become buyers for what they really need.

Buy or Sell

This is an easy buy, and the sooner the better. The NL West is wide open and the Giants have a shot at this thing, but they’ll need to be willing to make a move for an outfielder who can hit if they want to run down the three teams in front of them. The Molina trade lets them put Buster Posey behind the plate and move Aubrey Huff back to first base, creating a spot in the outfield for the one guy on the market who fits their needs perfectly – David DeJesus.

Besides being able to play any of the three outfield positions, DeJesus can do one thing the Giants badly need – hit the baseball with regularity. A career .290/.361/.429 hitter, he’s in the midst of the best year of his career, putting up a .331/.398/.478 mark for the Royals. He would be a monstrous upgrade over Aaron Rowand, and he fits everything that Brian Sabean has said he’s looking for.

He’s not a rental player, as he’s under contract for 2011 at a bargain rate of $6 million. He’s a good defender who can run down balls in the spacious park, and putting him next to Andres Torres will somewhat offset having Pat Burrell out there as well. He can hit anywhere in the line-up as well, as he’s one of the rare high quality players who also offers a lot of flexibility in how he is used.

There just aren’t any players like DeJesus on the market, who fit the needs of the Giants so perfectly. Rumor has the Royals asking for the moon, but I have to think there’s a deal to be made here. Putting him on this roster makes too much sense for it to not happen.

On The Farm

While Posey and Madison Bumgarner got all the headlines, there are some interesting young players in the system besides those two. They could offer up players like 20-year-old shortstop Ehire Adrianza, outfielder Thomas Neal, or lefty reliever Dan Runzler, who would have value to the Royals but wouldn’t cripple their future. The Giants system has enough depth to pull of a trade for pretty much anyone they want, and Sabean has shown he’s not shy about trading young for old.

Budget

At just $6 million for 2011, the Giants should be able to fit DeJesus in the budget, even though they’re going to be stretched for payroll room. They already have $77 million in committed salaries for next year, and that doesn’t include money to re-sign Aubrey Huff. They’re not going to have a ton of money to spend to upgrade their roster over the winter, so a guy like DeJesus, who is worth far more than his salary, is exactly what the doctor ordered.

Overview

The Dodgers are in second place, three games behind the division leading Padres. They’re a game ahead of the Rockies, who I suggested yesterday should be buyers. They won the NL West a year ago, and have mostly the same team back for 2010. This should be a pretty easy decision, right? Unfortunately for Dodger fans, the situation is complicated.

Buy or Sell

Given the team’s place in the standings and the talent on the roster, we can cross “sell” off the list of options in July. Theoretically, they should be buyers, but can they be, and if so, what should they be buying?

The divorce of the McCourts hangs over the entire organization, and while team officials continue to insist that it doesn’t affect their finances, it’s hard to take them seriously after they declined to offer arbitration to any of their free agents and failed to make any meaningful improvements to the roster.

The presumption is, and will likely continue to be, that the team is broke, and can’t afford to take on much in the way of salary. Given the players that are generally available in July, that’s a problem.

There are quite a few players who would make sense for the Dodgers if they could go shopping. They need a back-end starter to give them reliable innings behind the trio of Clayton Kershaw, Hiroki Kuroda, and Chad Billingsley, and that’s probably the asset that is most available via trade. Whether its Kevin Millwood, Jake Westbrook, or Ted Lilly, there are quite a few potential #4 starters who could be had for something less than the ransom that a guy like Cliff Lee will demand.

Unfortunately for the Dodgers, all three of those pitchers make significant money this year, and they would likely have to ask the GM on the other side of things to pick up a substantial amount of salary in any deal. The last time the Dodgers made that kind of deal, they shipped Carlos Santana to the Indians – whoops. They may not be eager to essentially sell off a young player again after getting burned so badly the last time, especially for a guy who would essentially be a rented role player and may not put them over the top anyway.

After all, this Dodgers roster has some problems that aren’t easily fixed. The outfield defense is awful, but they can’t afford to lose the offense provided by Manny Ramirez, Matt Kemp, or Andre Ethier in order to upgrade the glovework. They could use a better first baseman than James Loney, but outside of Prince Fielder, there’s probably not a guy out there who would make a big enough difference, and again, Fielder is pricey.

In reality, the Dodgers just need some of their own guys to play better. They can tweak the roster, but they can’t do anything to completely fix it until they have money to spend, and that makes giving up prospects to supplement a half-built playoff team less palatable than is usually the case for a team this close to October baseball.

On The Farm

The Dodgers system has talent, but it’s mostly in the lower levels of the system, which will also hurt their ability to make deals. Even top prospect Dee Gordon is more tools than production at this point, even though he’s made it to Double-A. Considering that the Dodgers are likely going to ask other teams to pay the freight for high salaried players, there may not be enough in the system for them to convince a team to make that kind of move.

Budget

The big unknown. The divorce makes it impossible to assume anything about the ability of the organization to add payroll, so the best we can do is guess that they’ll maintain the status quo.

Due to the ways service time accumulation and “super two” status works, the beginning of June saw a wide collection of the best prospects in baseball make their big league debuts. On June 8th, Stephen Strasburg and Mike Stanton were called up. The 9th brought Brad Lincoln, the 10th saw Jake Arrieta, and on the 11th, it was Carlos Santana.

Of the five guys called up in that four day span, Strasburg has obviously been the star, dominating the National League and making headlines every time he pitches. But, it’s the last of those five names that has actually performed the best since coming to the big leagues. Yes, Santana is even outplaying Mr. Strasburg.

In 16 big league games, he’s collected 17 hits. That doesn’t sound all that impressive until you realize that only five of them are singles. 12 of his 17 hits have gone for extra bases, giving him a .725 slugging percentage.

While that’s impressive, perhaps more so has been his command of the strike zone. Most young hitters struggle with breaking balls and look overmatched at times, but Santana has been anything but, drawing 12 walks in 64 plate appearances while striking out just six times. He’s only chased 20 percent of pitches outside the strike zone, putting him in the company of notable selective hitters like Kevin Youkilis.

Overall, his offensive line reads .333/.453/.725, good for a .490 wOBA. That is shockingly good on its own, but when you factor in that Santana is a catcher (who has thrown out six of 12 attempted basestealers, by the way), it takes it to another level. Santana’s total value in just over two weeks of baseball? +1.3 wins above replacement.

For a comparison, here’s his value extrapolated against Strasburg’s, both projected to a full season’s worth of playing time:

Santana: +10.2 wins per 500 PA
Strasburg: +9.5 wins per 200 IP

We limit Santana to 500 PA since he’s a catcher, and yet, he’s still outproducing Strasburg in value. This is to take nothing away from Washington’s ace, who is legitimately an amazing arm and one of the most exciting things to happen to baseball in a long, long time. However, what Santana is doing for the Indians is awfully impressive, and the comparison illustrates just how well he’s played since his arrival.

Strasburg and Jason Heyward are going to have make room – there’s yet another elite rookie in this class making a massive impact on his team from day one.

Overview

As they head into play against the Padres tonight, the Rockies are currently in fourth place in the NL West, five games behind the division leaders. With Troy Tulowitzki on the disabled list, the team has gone into something of a holding pattern to see if they can stay in the race until he returns, but I think that may be a mistake.

Buy Or Sell

The Rockies are very much contenders. They’re a high quality team with some good players, and while they’re five games out of first place, the Padres are almost certainly going to perform worse in the second half than they have so far. The Rockies should absolutely be buyers, and they should be buying sooner than later in order to maximize the amount of wins that a new acquisition can add to their roster.

There are essentially two glaring problems with the team, filling in for their star shortstop notwithstanding – both spots on the right side of the infield. Todd Helton’s power has vanished, and he’s posting a .307 wOBA, simply not good enough for a first baseman who spends half his time in Coors Field. The man playing next to him, meanwhile, Clint Barmes, has been even worse at the plate, posting a .289 wOBA. The lack of offense from these two spots have created problems for the Rockies.

One of those problems is fixable internally. The Rockies have too many outfielders, except one of them isn’t defensively capable and could be a more valuable player at first base – Brad Hawpe. He was primarily a first baseman in the minors, but was shifted to the outfield because Helton had the position locked down. By moving Hawpe to first base, they could drastically improve their outfield defense and get a better bat in the line-up than what Helton is giving them on a regular basis.

The second base issue can probably only be solved by going outside the organization. Barmes is a decent utility player, but he shouldn’t be starting on a team that has World Series aspirations. The team should be shopping heavily for a middle infielder who can handle second base full time and provide an offensive lift, especially if they can find that in a right-handed bat.

The obvious fit, if they can convince the Marlins that they’re out of the race, is Dan Uggla. He’s a consistent +3 to +4 win player with power and patience who would thrive in Colorado, and at $8 million this year and due for another arbitration raise in the winter, he’s too pricey by Florida’s standards.

There are lesser second base options available as well, but Uggla is the natural fit, and you have to imagine that Dan O’Dowd and Larry Beinfest will have a conversation or two during July.

On The Farm

The Rockies have some quality pitching prospects, always useful chips when trying to make a deal, especially with Florida. From Jhoulys Chacin to Esmil Rogers and Christian Friedrich, there are several good arms making their way towards the majors. Given their rotation depth, the Rockies could afford to part with one of these guys in pursuit of an impact player.

Things are not quite as rosy on the position player front, but the team has so much young talent on the major league roster that it’s not a huge problem.

Budget

Colorado isn’t rolling in cash, but they do have some financial flexibility going forward. They have just over $50 million in committed contracts for 2010, and their only significant arbitration cases will be with Barmes and Jason Hammel. Barmes is a non-tender candidate, so assuming the Rockies decline Hawpe’s option, they should have enough room in the budget to be able to fit another impact guy on the roster, such as Uggla.

By locking up Ubaldo Jimenez and Tulowitzki early for bargain rates, the team has given themselves a good foundation of which to build off. Even though they’re in fourth place, I’d like to see the Rockies take advantage of that and make a bold move to win both this year and next.

Over the last few years, Rich Lederer and I have exchanged our thoughts on the skills of Jered Weaver. Rich, an unabashed Weaver believer since his days at Long Beach State, saw Weaver as a legitimate frontline starter, while I saw more of a middle of the rotation guy who lived on keeping his fly balls in the park. Our disagreements mostly centered around whether to evaluate a pitcher on how many runs he prevents or his underlying components, as Weaver’s career ERA was nearly a run lower than his xFIP.

This year, Weaver has decided to make that argument obsolete, turning into a pitcher that both of us can agree on – a dominating, legitimate ace.

The last four years, Weaver had posted strikeout rates of 7.68, 6.43, 7.74, and 7.42, putting him just above average but certainly nothing special. This year, Weaver’s K/9 has jumped to 10.45, and he leads the majors in strikeouts by one, inching out strikeout machine (and National League pitcher) Tim Lincecum. In chart form, the leap looks like this.

In addition to increasing his strikeouts by 40 percent, he’s also posting a career low 2.12 BB/9 and a career high 36.6 percent groundball rate. He’s simply pitching better than he ever has before, and by a huge margin.

It’s hard to pinpoint any one reason why Weaver has been so much better this year than in prior years. His velocity hasn’t jumped. He didn’t add a new pitch or change the mix of pitches he’s using. His first strike rate isn’t any different than it was last year. Perhaps the most notable change is the frequency of 0-2 counts, which is up from 22 percent a year ago to 28 percent this year – since he’s getting ahead more often, he can get hitters to chase pitches out of the zone, so even if his stuff hasn’t changed, it’s made more effective by pitching in situations where the hitters have to be aggressive.

Whether he can keep pitching this way remains to be seen. Generally, it’s wiser to lean on four years of data rather than half a season’s worth, but for 2010 at least, Rich and I can agree on Jered Weaver, who has been tremendous, no matter how you evaluate a pitcher.