We use Wins Above Replacement around here a lot, as one of the focuses of the site is to accurately quantify the value each player produces, and WAR is the best tool we have to do that. However, it faces a decent amount of skepticism from people who don’t trust various components for a variety of reasons – they don’t like the numbers that UZR spits out for defense, they don’t believe in replacement level, or they believe that pitchers do have control over their BABIP rates.

So, the question is, does WAR work? If it’s designed well, there should be a pretty strong correlation between a team’s total WAR and their actual record. Fans of WAR rejoice – there is.

For 2009, the correlation between a team’s projected record based on their WAR total and their actual record was .83. This is a robust number, especially considering that WAR is almost completely context independent and currently includes some notable omissions – base running (besides SB/CS, which are included in wOBA) and catcher defense are both ignored in the calculations. We also don’t have an adjustment for differences in leagues, so we’re not accounting for the fact that the AL is better than the NL.

Despite these imperfections, WAR still performs extremely well. One standard deviation of the difference between WAR and actual record is 6.4 wins, and every single team is within two standard deviations. Only four teams were more than 10 wins away from their projected total by WAR, with Tampa Bay ending up the furthest away from our expectation (96.6 projected wins, 84 actual wins), and 18 of the 30 teams were within six wins of their projected WAR total.

For comparison, the correlation between pythagorean expected record and actual record is .91, and pythag includes some aspects of context (performance with men on base, for instance) that impact runs scored and allowed, so we would expect it to predict actual record somewhat better than a context independent metric like WAR. The fact that WAR is even close to somewhat-context-included pythag is impressive in its own right.

WAR isn’t perfect. But given the known limitations and the variations in how contextual situations impact final record, it does an awfully impressive job of projecting wins and losses.

Congratulations to the Minnesota Twins for winning the AL Central in what can only be described as dramatic fashion.

The Colorado Rockies are back in the playoffs for the second time in three years, and as a reward for winning the wild card, they get first dibs at trying to knock off the Phillies. This has the makings of a fun division series. Let’s look at the match-up from Colorado’s perspective.

Game 1, Rockies at Phillies, Wednesday, 2:37 PM

The opener will feature Ubaldo Jimenez and either Cole Hamels or Cliff Lee. While the Phillies pair of lefties are bigger names, Jimenez is in the same class of pitchers. He throws harder than any starting pitcher in baseball, and his sinker is a nasty out pitch. The Phillies will roll out their standard line-up, which is certainly a good one, and will present a challenge for the Rockies pitching staff. Colorado will have to consider leaving Brad Hawpe on the bench, however, as the team is better against southpaws with Dexter Fowler on the field against an LHP.

Game 2, Rockies at Phillies, Thursday, 2:37 PM

Aaron Cook is likely to take the hill for the Rockies against Hamels or Lee, whichever of the two didn’t pitch in game one. This is a clear disadvantage for the Rockies. Cook is a good pitcher, but he’s only made two starts since coming off the disabled list, and he’s not Hamels or Lee even at 100%. He’s going to have to have his sinker working to avoid giving up homers to the Phillies powerful line-up, and Jim Tracy shouldn’t be afraid to have a quick hook if he falters early. Again, facing an LHP, the Rockies should consider using Fowler instead of Hawpe.

Game 3, Phillies at Rockies, Saturday, TBD

When the series shifts to Coors Field, the Rockies will have a choice to make. Jorge de la Rosa left his final start of the season with a groin injury, so his health will be a determinant of who takes the mound against Joe Blanton. If de la Rosa can’t go, Jason Hammel or Jason Marquis would fill his place. Against a line-up with three strong left-handed hitters, the Rockies would likely prefer to have de la Rosa available. However, the Phillies don’t have a large platoon split as a team, so if there’s any concern over de la Rosa’s health, they should let him rest. Hawpe should finally start with an RHP on the hill.

Game 4, Phillies at Rockies, Sunday, TBD

This is where the pitching decisions will get more interesting. Assuming neither team sweeps, there will be pressure on whichever manager is down 2-1 in the series to bring his game one starter back on short rest in order to force a decisive game five. Neither Charlie Manuel nor Jim Tracy want to get eliminated with their #4 starter on the hill. Expect to see either Jimenez or Hamels/Lee start this game. If we have a game four, I’d say it’s likely we’ll also have a game five.

Game 5, Rockies at Phillies, Tuesday, TBD

If we get to a deciding final game, Colorado’s chances of winning may hinge on whether or not they were the team who had the 2-1 lead going into game four. If they were up after three games, they’ll likely have full rest Jimenez here, which gives them a real chance to win the series. If they had to use Jimenez in game four, then they’re repeating the match-up of Cook vs Lee/Hamels, and that’s still not one you expect Colorado to win all that often.

Overall

The Rockies are a good team, and any team is capable of winning 3 out of 5 from any other, so don’t go penciling in the Phillies for the NLCS just yet. That said, Colorado’s best chance to win this series is to steal one of the early games in Philadelphia and the first game back in Colorado, allowing them to save Jimenez for a potential game five showdown on full rest. There’s an exponential increase in likelyhood of winning the series if the Rockies can win two of the first three, beyond just being up 2-1 in the series.

Unlike some division champ/wild card match-ups, this one isn’t a total mismatch. The Rockies can play, and we should have a good series of baseball to watch.

Okay, so thanks to the Twins and Tigers, the 2009 regular season isn’t quite over yet, but everyone else is either getting ready for the playoffs or 2010. So, as we put the first 2,430 games to rest, let’s reward some players for their accomplishments. Note – these awards purposely renamed because I don’t particularly care about the BBWAA votes, and don’t want to get into the usual arguments surrounding those.

Best Pitcher, American League:

Zack Greinke. Do I really have to say much here? +9.3 wins from a pitcher. Just ridiculous. Congratulations on a great year, kid.

Best Pitcher, National League:

Tim Lincecum. With all due respect to the Cardinals duo, it’s Lincecum. More quantity than Carpenter and more quality than Wainwright.

Best Player, American League:

Joe Mauer. One of the great catcher seasons of all time. Might make the playoffs with a group of teammates that wouldn’t finish over .500 without him.

Best Player, National League:

Albert Pujols. The best player in the game is also the most consistent. Truly, one of the greatest hitters of all time.

Best Rookie, American League:

Brett Anderson. A legitimate front-of-the-rotation starter who does everything well. One of the best young lefties we’ve seen in years.

Best Rookie, National League:

Andrew McCutchen. Hits for contact and power, draws walks, steals bsaes, and plays a solid center field. Not just a good rookie – he’s already a really good player.

Best Manager, American League:

Don Wakamatsu. Took over a team in turmoil, made them like each other, and won 85 games in the process.

Best Manager, National League:

Jim Tracy, I guess, if I have to pick someone. Not a very impressive group.

162 games just wasn’t enough to decide the winner of the AL Central, so on Tuesday night, the Twins and Tigers will engage in a one game playoff to determine who gets to keep playing. Minnesota tries to finish off a tremendous comeback, while Detroit tries to avoid a pretty staggering collapse.

The game itself will be tremendous drama to watch, but the existence of the game itself is bad news for both teams. Regardless of which team wins, they’re going to be at a significant disadvantage in the AL division series.

The Tigers used Justin Verlander on Sunday in order to force the 163rd game. In an effort to win that game and qualify for the playoffs, they’ll send Rick Porcello to the hill tomorrow. And then, if they win, they’ll have to turn around and play the Yankees on Wednesdady. Neither Verlander nor Porcello would be eligible to make that start, obviously, so instead, Edwin Jackson would be the game one starter for Detroit. Given his second half struggles, that’s certainly not an ideal situation for the Tigers.

The Twins face an even more serious problem. They’ll try to beat the Tigers with Scott Baker tomorrow, which would make him available for just one game in a first round match-up against New York, as they’d have to hand their two start spots to Nick Blackburn and Carl Pavano. Both are decent pitchers, but they’re clearly inferior to Baker. And with Minnesota only able to throw their best starter once in a five game series, their odds of being able to take down the Yankees takes a real hit.

As a fan without a rooting interest in the outcome of the AL Central, the one game playoff should provide some pretty enjoyable baseball to watch. But the price of the game is going to inflict a significant toll on the winner.

Congratulations to the Colorado Rockies, who clinched the NL Wild Card with a victory yesterday. Now that they’re in the playoffs, they just have one small problem – figuring out what their rotation should look like.

The Rockies have a problem most teams would love to have. Their five starting pitchers – Ubaldo Jimenez, Aaron Cook, Jason Marquis, Jason Hammel, and Jorge de la Rosa – have combined for +19 WAR, which is the main reason they’re going to the playoffs in the first place. Cook is the low man on the totem pole with 2.1 WAR, but that’s a function of injury related struggles and a stint on the DL. Over the last few years, Cook has established himself as a reliable, high quality starting pitcher.

You just don’t need five starting pitchers in a playoff series, however. So, one member of Colorado’s rotation is going to head to the bullpen, and figuring out who that should be isn’t as easy as it is for most clubs.

Jimenez is the #1, clearly. He’s one of the best pitchers in baseball. After that, it gets muddier.

Cook should probably be the #2. He’s been very good in two starts since returning from the DL, and you probably don’t want to mess with a guy’s routine who is coming off an arm problem.

That leaves de la Rosa, Hammel, and Marquis to fight for two spots. All of them have experience out of the bullpen. All of them provide different qualities as a starter. Hammel is the guy who pounds the strike zone. de la Rosa is the guy who racks up strikeouts. Marquis is the groundball specialist. They’ve all had pretty similar years, with their FIPs ranging from 3.73 to 4.10. And they have all checkered history before this season.

I’d go with Hammel and de la Rosa, personally. Marquis would give the bullpen something it doesn’t have right now – a guy to come in and get a ground ball in order to induce a DP or a play at the plate. The Rockies have relievers who can do other things, but they don’t have a sinker specialist in relief. Marquis would provide an option for Jim Tracy if he finds himself in a situation where he needs a groundball in a high leverage situation.

However, I’m not sure there’s a wrong answer here. You could make an argument for all three guys. No matter what is decided, someone isn’t going to be happy, but that’s the life of having too many quality starters in October. There are worse problems to have.

Chris Carpenter had himself some kind of afternoon. In his final tune-up for the postseason, he threw five shutout innings at the Reds, allowing just four base runners and striking out six batters in the process. But that’s not all that unusual for Carpenter, whose dominance is one of the main reasons the Cardinals are going to the playoffs.

It is Carpenter’s bat that got him noticed today. In the first inning, he came up with the bases loaded and deposited a Kip Wells pitch into the seats for a grand slam home run that put his team up 5-0. Then, in the fifth inning, he came up with runners at first and second and doubled them both in, giving himself six RBI on the day.

Carp became the seventh pitcher since 1954 to drive in six runners in a game. The other notable big hitting pitcher games?

Tony Cloninger, July 3rd, 1966. 3-5, 2 HR, 9 RBI.
Robert Person, June 2nd, 2002. 2-3, 2 HR, 7 RBI.
Micah Owings, August 18th, 2007. 4-5, 2 HR, 6 RBI.
Blue Moon Odom, May 4th, 1969. 3-3, 2B, HR, 6 RBI.
Dave Giusti, August 21st, 1966. 2-4, 2 2B, 6 RBI.
Babe Birrer, July 19th, 1955. 2-2, 2 HR, 6 RBI.

Cloninger’s game is easily the most impressive, as both of his home runs were grand slams, and he threw a complete game to boot. Talk about winning a game by yourself.

Perhaps the most amazing performance belongs to Birrer, however. He came into the game as a relief pitcher, and worked four innings. When he went to the ballpark, he was not scheduled to play. He went home having pitched four shutout innings and launching a pair of home runs. He only recorded one other hit in his major league career.

Let’s play the old comparison game. I’m going to show you four pitchers, and then you have to determine which one is the best.

Pitcher A: 8 GS, 48 IP, 57 H, 19 BB, 27 K, 11 HR, 6.43 FIP, 6.56 ERA
Pitcher B: 8 GS, 50 IP, 53 H, 20 BB, 25 K, 9 HR, 5.86 FIP, 4.86 ERA
Pitcher C: 8 GS, 55 IP, 51 H, 14 BB, 33 K, 5 HR, 4.10 FIP, 3.07 ERA
Pitcher D: 9 GS, 67 IP, 53 H, 12 BB, 42 K, 6 HR, 3.69 FIP, 1.76 ERA

I know, I know, it’s not very hard, right? Pitcher A is terrible. He probably doesn’t belong in baseball. Pitcher B is nearly as bad, and is a replacement level pitcher at best. Pitcher C is a solid middle of the rotation innings eater. Pitcher D is pretty darn good, though maybe not quite as good as his sparkling ERA would suggest.

What do they have in common? All four pitchers are named Bronson Arroyo.

That’s Arroyo’s 2009 season, broken up into quartiles. His first eight starts of the season, he was an absolute disaster – one of the very worst pitchers in baseball. He improved to just being lousy instead of totally miserable in his next eight starts, but at that point, half the season was gone and his FIP stood at 6.14. That’s a 98 inning sample of below replacement level performance.

His last 16 starts, though? He’s been the exact opposite. His FIP stands at 3.78 since July 10th, as he’s gone back to throwing strikes, missing bats, and keeping the ball in the park. His first half could not have gone any worse – his second half could not have gone any better.

The obvious question is why? I don’t have any idea. I’m not sure Arroyo does either. There’s always a post-hoc explanation for stuff like this, but it’s hardly ever true. The reality is that pitchers are remarkably inconsistent. Arroyo never was as bad as he pitched in the first half, while he’s also not as good as he’s pitched in the second half.

If there’s a lesson to be learned from this, it’s that pitchers are flaky, and even things that a pitcher can control can vary widely over fractions of a season. 100 innings may sound like a lot, but given the extreme variations that pitchers can face, it’s really not.

There are few things in baseball that get fans as excited as the new young star pitcher. Whether it was Dwight Gooden, Ben McDonald, Josh Beckett, Mark Prior, Felix Hernandez, or David Price, the promise of a potential ace is something that every fan base goes nuts for. There’s something special about having a truly dominating starting pitcher take the hill every five days.

Price got all the hype headed into the season, and perhaps his struggles have led to a bit of disappointment in the crop as a whole. But once you look past the fact that he didn’t dominate in the way some were expecting, there’s a whole lot of talent in this rookie pitching crop.

I talked about the emergence of Brett Anderson a month ago. He’s not only got a bright future, but he’s showing that he’s already one of the better pitchers in baseball. As a 21-year-old lefty, he’s running a 3.3 K/BB ratio while maintaining a 50% GB%. And he’s getting better as the year goes on. He might not have the sizzle of the names listed above, but he’s not that far away from being a #1 starter.

In the NL, Tommy Hanson is doing something similar. His first five starts were a bit rough, as he struggled with his command and ran a 17/18 BB/K rate in 29 innings. Since the calendar turned to June, however, he’s been lights out – 92 innings, 76 H, 27 BB, 89 K. This is the kind of line you should expect him to put up. He’s that good.

We just talked about Derek Holland last week, so I’ll spare the recap of that other than to say that he’s been much, much better than his ERA would indicate.

After those three, you’ve still got a strong crop of guys. J.A. Happ, Randy Wells, and Jeff Niemann have had strong rookie seasons, even if they aren’t quite as talented as the trio mentioned above. Rick Porcello has held his own as a 20-year-old without an out pitch, which is impressive in its own right. Brad Bergesen, Ricky Romero, and Mark Rzepczynski showed terrific sinkers and a good feel for pitching.

And finally, there were the relievers – Neftali Feliz stole the show late, but Andrew Bailey, Luke Gregerson, and Darren O’Day were lights out all year long. Daniel Bard flashed brilliance at times, while Chris Perez and Sergio Romo showed significant potential as well.

This is just a remarkably deep group of good young rookie pitchers. Injuries and attrition will send a lot of them by the way side, but don’t be surprised if we look back in five years and realize that a large handful of the best pitchers in the game all put themselves on the map in 2009.

The Piraes trade of Jason Bay has been slow to bear fruit. Three of the four players they received haven’t lived up to expectations – Brandon Moss has played at replacement level all season, Craig Hansen has been injured, and Bryan Morris was terrible and then hurt in A-ball. But, the key player to the deal was Andy LaRoche, and after a rough start to his Pirates career, he’s finally making fans appreciate the deal.

In September, LaRoche is hitting .347/.395/.640 in 82 trips to the plate. The most encouraging part for Pittsburgh fans has to be the power – 12 of his 26 hits have gone for extra bases this month after not having more than seven XBH in any prior month this season. Perhaps just as important, his revival has come after he hit just .188 in July and .205 in August, and looked to be on the verge of playing himself out of a job in 2010.

As a 26-year-old, LaRoche isn’ a kid anymore. He’s not going to keep getting chances bases on his minor league numbers, so a strong final month of the season was exactly what he needed. And, with the hot stretch, he’s raised his overall season line to .260/.335/.408, which makes him a league average hitter for the season.

As a solid defender at third, league average offense is enough to make him a pretty decent player. For the season, we’ve got him valued at +2.5 wins, which would be worth about $11 million on the free market. With an average across-the-board skillset, LaRoche isn’t likely to ever turn into a star, but for where Pittsburgh in his their rebuilding effort, he’s a better fit for the organization than keeping Bay would have been.

It took a while, but the Pirates can finally point to something more than hope for why they made the deal. With a strong finish to the season, LaRoche has given the team reason for optimism going forward, and that’s something that has been missing in Pittsburgh for quite a while.