Now This Is A Graph
Congratulations to the Minnesota Twins for winning the AL Central in what can only be described as dramatic fashion.
Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.
Congratulations to the Minnesota Twins for winning the AL Central in what can only be described as dramatic fashion.
Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.
Game 1: Brian Duensing v CC Sabathia?
Anyway, that was a heck of a game. It was highly entertaining, but there were far too many fundamental errors for me to consider it a well played.
Yeah, a ton of stupid mistakes, but high drama nonetheless.
A ton of stupid mistakes. Like letting Gerald Laird go 0-6 while Alex Avila rotted on the bench? Unlike most people on here, I’m a big Leyland fan, but I’ll never figure that one.
yea that game was ridiculous. possibly one of the best ballgames i’ve ever watched. i hate the goddamn twins and tigers (white sox fan, woot!), but congrats to the twink fans, that was one fuck of a game!
Is there any situation that ever merits an IBB of Delmon Young?
Shame about the Inge HBP in the 12th that didn’t get called. Maybe we’d still be watching
True that.
I was thinking the exact same thing when that happened. I understand setting up the dp….but it was Delmon Young.
Fernando Rodney had not pitched more than 2 innngs in any outing since August 2008 and only twice since 2005. Yet Leyland was asking him to pitch 4 innings tonight. Crazy.
Did they get the expanded rosters in these 1-game playoffs? If so, you’d think they’d go all Lefty-Righty and exploit the roster size. Can they call guys up for the single game? Even less reason for the Rondey-a-thon.
So many little things in this game that were interesting.
Yeah, it’s considered a part of the regular season, so they get expanded rosters, which is why there seemed to be an inexhaustible supply of pinch runners (and defensive replacements to replace them). What both teams were running out of was relief pitchers, however. The Twins have to pray their starters go deep against the Yankees in at least the first couple of games (yeah, good luck with that — in the post-season, the Yankees are like Gardy’s personal Kryptonite.)
They’re gonna be walkin’ zombies tomorrow in NYC. And starting a rookie in the playoffs in Yankee stadium. They’ll probably get swept but 10 other teams in the AL won’t have a chance to get swept in the playoffs…
Not sure if anyone actually watched the game but Brandon Inge was hbp in the top of the 12th with bases loaded and Randy Marsh ( plate ump) called it a ball…He effectively lost us the ballgame. Not to say that there wern’t other chances like Laird striking out with bases loaded and going 0-5 and I agree Rodney was left in one inning to many, he should have went to Verlander or Jackson with little to no bullpen left (Bondo)
Verlander on one day’s rest, coming off three days rest? It would have been a textbook Pyrrhic victory. Not having Jackson for Game 1 or Verlander for Game 2 would have ruined any chance the Tiggers had.
Actually, they would have indeed had Jackson on regular rest for Wednesday (he last pitched Friday) and Verlander on regular rest for Friday (since he last pitched on Sunday). The Twins’ rotation is in much worse shape for the upcoming series than the Tigers’ would have been. But I was pulling for the Twins anyway, despite my dislike of the dreaded Yankees.
You have to do EVERYTHING for the win in this situation… you gotta get there first (so on and so forth)… neither manager should have been worried about playoff rotations whatsoever… Leyland leaving Rodney in for >2 innings was a death wish.
WY, I’m saying if one of them had come in, they would have been lost for those games.
Casilla may have been safe in the bottom of the 10th on the throw from Raburn. The game could have been over there. Quit whining, Tigers’ fans. You choked away the division.
Yep, he looked safe to me. That was game over as opposed to the HBP where the Twins would have had a chance to tie.
How did the not called HBP lose the game? The Twins scored in the bottom of the inning, so it would have at least been tied 6-6, with two guys on and one out with the Twins still batting.
That didn’t “lose you the ballgame” any more than Marsh’s terrible called strikeout of Orlando Cabrera would have lost the Twins the ballgame. Both teams had multiple chances to win, both before and after any bad calls.
That was an incredible game, through and through. I wanted to root for the Tigers, but Leyland made it tough for me. I guess I’ve never paid much attention, but Leyland looked like a pretty terrible manager tonight. Maybe I’m not aware of all the circumstances, but his pitcher/bullpen management was just terrible tonight. Porcello was yanked way too soon, and I knew the game was over once he trotted Rodney out in the 12th with nobody up in the pen.
Congrats Twins!
Actually, Gardenhire made some questionable moves, too, including not just going with Nathan in the 8th with the heart of the Tigers’ order coming up (especially since he wound up having to get two outs in the 8th anyway). Another questionable move was sacrificing with Span after Punto led off the bottom of the 9th with a single. By doing so, he basically took the bat out of Mauer’s hands with Cabrera coming up to bat and Gomez in the hole.
Randy Marsh also squeezed Twins pitchers all game long and unfortunately more of a factor than any ump should ever be. Sure he missed the Inge HBP, but he also missed SEVERAL 3rd strike calls. The 3-2 pitch to Granderson in the 3rd was right down the middle. Then Span takes in the exact same spot, maybe even higher, thats called a strike.
You’re kidding, right? The strike zone for Joe Nathan spanned both Twin Cities.
Same for Porcello…it all evened out in the end and the best team won.
Orlando Cabrera was called out on a pretty questionable call as well. I was pretty much impartial with no real rooting interest, and the strike zone seemed to be pretty, uh, “fluid” all night.
On a game with that many close plays, the umpiring crew is bound to make a few crucial mistakes. Of course the Twins got lucky at times. It’s a one-game playoff – luck is bound to be a considerable factor.
Agreed. Pitch FX thinks it was bogus also.
The occasional mistake on a close play is understandable; an inconsistent and wandering strike zone is not.
Joser,
I agree that the strike zone inconsistencies were kind of a bummer. But do we have any good proof that the strike zone was any less consistent than in the large majority of MLB games? I’m inclined to think that the gripes are magnified because of the importance of the game and because the game had a lot of high-leverage situations.
I have to agree, that strike zone was, um, shaky.
Porcello with 8 strikeouts in 5 2/3. Outside of one outing vs. the offensively offensive Mariners, he’s never even been close to that. To be fair, his strike to ball ratio wasn’t all that different from normal.
Amazing game.
I didn’t think the ump was that terrible either way, but at any rate, ump ratings should be made public.
I think this playoff game will go down in history as one of the all time greats. From inning to inning it appeared for both teams that the game was lost only to prolong the agony for 12 innings. I know it’s tough to be on the loosing end, but you have got to give it to the Twins to come from being behind by 7 games in September to win the ALC.
Speaking of the graph itself, I once had an idea (I’m sure I wasn’t the first) for measuring the “excitement” of a game by summing the absolute values of all the WPA changes, but I lack the technical know-how to spreadsheetly aggregate large numbers of games with little effort. I would definitely be interested in seeing how this game ranks among games this season, if anyone with more computer savvy feels like putting the time in (maybe it’s a simple computation for an admin, given the format of the database? I don’t know how computers work.)
That is pretty well captured by the aLI (average leverage index)
1.93 for this game.
The max was 7.24, and RBI single in the bottom of the 10th.
http://www.fangraphs.com/plays.aspx?date=2009-10-06&team=Twins&dh=0
Thrill of victory:
http://www.coolstandings.com/baseball_team.asp?id=MIN&sn=2009
Agony of defeat
http://www.coolstandings.com/baseball_team.asp?id=DET&sn=2009
Maybe i’m crazy but i feel some of the tigers wear excessiveley baggy clothing. is there any rule as to how baggy (versus size) a uniform can be? I wasn’t alive back then but i get the feeling if bob gibson hit your jersey as opposed to your chest they weren’t giving the base.
You could take your base but the next time you faced him Gibson would put a ball through your ear-flap.
I feel the strike zone was terrible in this game. can we move to computers calling strikes(maybe eliminating the dh to appease the traditionalists, of which i am one).
I’m glad my team isn’t in the AL Central – the Twins are the peskiest team on the planet. What a game. I was pissed because I came into the game late…but no matter they practically played two.
Dramatic as all hell, but man did both managers try to lose that game! I loved it, though. A 12-inning seesaw battle in the 163rd game of the season.
I can only hope Gardenhire manages the same way against my Yankees. Girardi has already set himself up for failure (agreeing to start Molina when Burnett pitches), so the help may be needed. 😉
As a Yankees fan, I have a fairly irrational distaste for Molina. I’m pretty sure this is compounded by the fact that he most often bats directly in front of my favorite player, and, insofar as anyone can be one, is a base-clogger.
No power. Less speed. No on-base skills.
But look at that arm!
The only good thing I can think of is that it strengthens the Yankee bench.
No, the only possible good thing about it is that AJ Burnett will apparently believe he will pitch well. This is about Burnett’s head.
I only hope Molina hasn’t GIPD’d twice by the time Jorge pinch-hits for him…
Even having to listen to Chip Caray whine about how Denard Span should be bunting in the 7th didn’t dampen the game. Weird managerial decisions, player mistakes, but hey, sometimes that’s what makes it fun.
Of course Extras could’ve been avoided in my opinion if Nathan just pitched the 8th and 9th, but oh well.
I started watching fairly late (6th-7th inning) and my first comment was “why not bring in Nathan here?” in the top of the 8th. Heart of the order due up, 1 run game, one of the best, if not the best, closers in baseball… and he ended up having to come in and get 2 outs that inning anyway.
And best of all, now no one has an excuse to not vote Mauer MVP.
Yay
Never underestimate the BBWAA.
Average discussion between baseball fan and BBWAA member
“____ walks and strikes out too much”
“Um, his OBP is like .405. He’s good”
“You stupid nerd, watch baseball.”
“I do.”
“You’re dealing with a member of the BBWAA”
“So because you write for a paper, that makes your opinion more qualified?”
“YOU DON’T WATCH BASEBALL BUT I WATCH BASEBALL I AM IN THE BBWAA.”
I swear these egomaniacs often make these votes more about themselves than the players. I swear the vagueness of the term “valuable” is the worst thing that can happen to individual awards, it lets some of the real jerks do whatever they want and not face any discourse. Heck, they can even do what Tom Haudricourt did.
Murray Chase would be proud!
I actually think Chass is calculated. I’ve emailed him before and he’s much more level headed one on one than he is in articles.
FJM set out to take down bad sports writing, but now some writers use ironic sports writing and purposely write bad crap to get website hits. Guys who know they’re hacks almost welcome criticism for attention.
Leyland not only lost that game for the Tigers, but probably lost another 15 during the year… I know they say a manager can only win or lose about 5 games for his team over the course of the season, but Leyland has been HORRIBLE this season.. actually he has been HORRIBLE since midway through 2006!!!
He either makes horrible moves or doesnt make a move when he needs to…
For those of you who dont regularly watch the Tigers, last nights managing was a microcasim of the entire season…
Raburn is a terrible fielder accoring to URZ but Leyland CONSTANTLY uses him in left feild, EVEN BRINGING HIM IN AS A DEFENSIVE REPLACEMENT!!!
He also brings in guys as replacements all the time, not thinking that maybe having Guillens or Maggs bat in the lineup may be important later on…
He ALWAYS pulls his starter too early or too late, NEVER at the right time…
And he ALWAYS leaves releivers in 3 or 4 batters to long…
Leyland lsot us the division, and all us Tiger fans get to look forward to 3 MORE FREAKING YEARS OF HIS IDIOCY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Jeff, man, calm down, breathe, it’s okay.
I’m not sure it is okay. Jeff probably lives in Detroit. Winter is now setting in. And he’s in Detroit.
I caught the highlights package and one of my first thoughts was I bet the win probability graph on that one is crazy.