ALDS Preview: Los Angeles Angels

This postseason marks the third straight year (and fourth in six years) that Los Angeles of Anaheim will face Boston in the ALDS. Even the most rational of Angels fans will feel some dread at the prospect, I assume: L.A.’s record in those three previous match-ups is 1-9. And while the run differential over that same time frame (29 v 62)* doesn’t inspire great confidence either, it’s unlikely that such lopsided results are the product of anything but the random variation of a small sample size. By comparison, the season series between the two was 5-4 in favor of the Halos, who outscored the Sox by a slight margin (44 v 40).

*An interesting note about this: of those 62 runs Boston has scored over 10 games, 14 of them (almost a quarter) were scored in the ninth inning or later.

In terms of results, this year’s iteration of the Angels isn’t so different from the other three teams to face Boston, as their Pythagorean Wins bear out:

YR	Pyth W
2009	92
2008	88
2007	90
2004	91

What is different is the unfamiliar means by which the Angels have reached this rather familiar end. While the previous versions have had a reputation for excellent pitching, defense, and baserunning, this year’s team has bent, if not entirely broken, that mold.

Offensively, the Angels are still running a lot. Their 148 stolen bases are good for third in the majors this year, after having finished second, second, and first, respectively, in 2008, 2007, and 2004. And their defense, according to UZR, is actually better than before: they rank 11th in that metric, versus ranks of 16, 16, and 18 in 2008, 2007, 2004.

As for their hitting prowess, many readers will remember in August when L.A. fielded a lineup consisting entirely of .300 hitters. While we, the Aristocrats of Baseballing Analysis, understand that batting average isn’t necessarily the best measure of offensive production, it’s an important part of getting on base.

Nor is this a team of Willie Keelers. Regard:

YR	wOBA	Lg Rank	BB%	ISO	LD%	FB%	HR/FB
2009	0.346	3	8.9 %	0.156	18.8	0.370	0.103
2008	0.325	18	8.0 %	0.145	18.0	0.355	0.098
2007	0.332	14	8.4 %	0.133	17.1	0.358	0.073
2004	0.335	16	7.3 %	0.147	19.2	0.358	0.096

The numbers are up across the board, really. More walks, more line drives (with the exception of ’04), more fly balls, and more fly balls leaving the yard.

The improvement is the result mostly of a key addition (Bobby Abreu and his .390 OBP), a career year (Torii Hunter matched his career high in wRAA — set in 2002 — in ca. 100 fewer PAs), and a couple of break-out seasons by younger players (Kendry Morales and Erick Aybar). More PAs for Mike Napoli — and fewer for Jeff Mathis — hasn’t hurt, either.

Some other things that might surprise you about the Angels offensive renaissance:

*Kendry Morales is really good. His wOBA of .382 (on the strength of .306/.355/.569 line) was good for 32nd in the majors.

*Chone Figgins led the AL in walks with 101.

*Despite being a little funny-figured, Bobby Abreu still steals bases. He was 30/38 this year.

Oddly, as the Halos batting has reached new levels, pitching has faltered. Regard (S Rank = Starters FIP Rank / R Rank = Relievers FIP Rank):

YR	FIP	Rank	S Rank	R Rank
2009	4.45	21	21	16
2008	4.12	8	10	9
2007	4.10	4	2	16
2006	4.09	5	15	1

This’ll be the first of these four teams to enter the postseason with a team FIP outside the majors’ top ten. And the mediocrity has been spread evenly across the starters and relievers, it seems.

Reasons? There are a few. For one, both John Lackey and Ervin Santana began the year on the DL. And while Lackey has put up more or less his usual rate stats, Santana has posted a 5.02 FIP (5.57 tRA) after last year’s 3.30 FIP (3.66 tRA).

In the bullpen, the departure of Francisco Rodriguez has hurt, as the Angels have traded in his 3.22 FIP from last year for Brian Fuentes‘ 4.42 FIP this year. Also painful have been the sub-par performances of both Jose Arredondo and Scot Shields, the latter of whom is broken after years of dependable, high-leverage contributions.