NLDS Preview: Colorado Rockies

The Colorado Rockies are back in the playoffs for the second time in three years, and as a reward for winning the wild card, they get first dibs at trying to knock off the Phillies. This has the makings of a fun division series. Let’s look at the match-up from Colorado’s perspective.

Game 1, Rockies at Phillies, Wednesday, 2:37 PM

The opener will feature Ubaldo Jimenez and either Cole Hamels or Cliff Lee. While the Phillies pair of lefties are bigger names, Jimenez is in the same class of pitchers. He throws harder than any starting pitcher in baseball, and his sinker is a nasty out pitch. The Phillies will roll out their standard line-up, which is certainly a good one, and will present a challenge for the Rockies pitching staff. Colorado will have to consider leaving Brad Hawpe on the bench, however, as the team is better against southpaws with Dexter Fowler on the field against an LHP.

Game 2, Rockies at Phillies, Thursday, 2:37 PM

Aaron Cook is likely to take the hill for the Rockies against Hamels or Lee, whichever of the two didn’t pitch in game one. This is a clear disadvantage for the Rockies. Cook is a good pitcher, but he’s only made two starts since coming off the disabled list, and he’s not Hamels or Lee even at 100%. He’s going to have to have his sinker working to avoid giving up homers to the Phillies powerful line-up, and Jim Tracy shouldn’t be afraid to have a quick hook if he falters early. Again, facing an LHP, the Rockies should consider using Fowler instead of Hawpe.

Game 3, Phillies at Rockies, Saturday, TBD

When the series shifts to Coors Field, the Rockies will have a choice to make. Jorge de la Rosa left his final start of the season with a groin injury, so his health will be a determinant of who takes the mound against Joe Blanton. If de la Rosa can’t go, Jason Hammel or Jason Marquis would fill his place. Against a line-up with three strong left-handed hitters, the Rockies would likely prefer to have de la Rosa available. However, the Phillies don’t have a large platoon split as a team, so if there’s any concern over de la Rosa’s health, they should let him rest. Hawpe should finally start with an RHP on the hill.

Game 4, Phillies at Rockies, Sunday, TBD

This is where the pitching decisions will get more interesting. Assuming neither team sweeps, there will be pressure on whichever manager is down 2-1 in the series to bring his game one starter back on short rest in order to force a decisive game five. Neither Charlie Manuel nor Jim Tracy want to get eliminated with their #4 starter on the hill. Expect to see either Jimenez or Hamels/Lee start this game. If we have a game four, I’d say it’s likely we’ll also have a game five.

Game 5, Rockies at Phillies, Tuesday, TBD

If we get to a deciding final game, Colorado’s chances of winning may hinge on whether or not they were the team who had the 2-1 lead going into game four. If they were up after three games, they’ll likely have full rest Jimenez here, which gives them a real chance to win the series. If they had to use Jimenez in game four, then they’re repeating the match-up of Cook vs Lee/Hamels, and that’s still not one you expect Colorado to win all that often.

Overall

The Rockies are a good team, and any team is capable of winning 3 out of 5 from any other, so don’t go penciling in the Phillies for the NLCS just yet. That said, Colorado’s best chance to win this series is to steal one of the early games in Philadelphia and the first game back in Colorado, allowing them to save Jimenez for a potential game five showdown on full rest. There’s an exponential increase in likelyhood of winning the series if the Rockies can win two of the first three, beyond just being up 2-1 in the series.

Unlike some division champ/wild card match-ups, this one isn’t a total mismatch. The Rockies can play, and we should have a good series of baseball to watch.