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Yesterday, the Atlanta Braves signed Nick Marakis to a four year, $45 million contract. As Mike Petriello noted, the deal just doesn’t make much sense from a numerical perspective, since nearly every piece of evidence we have is that Markakis just isn’t that valuable of a player. I’ve previously compared Markakis to Nori Aoki, and would imagine that Aoki will sign for something like half of what Markakis just received from the Braves.

But, if we’re looking for an explanation of why the Braves — and others, since it’s not like Atlanta was the only team bidding for his services — valued Markakis, it’s actually not that much of a puzzle. The sentiment for the deal can essentially be summed up in this statement.

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Right-handed power. It’s the buzzword — or perhaps the buzzphrase — of the off-season. Every day, we wake up to news of another team throwing big money at a free agent because he has some history of strong offensive performances and he bats from the right side of the plate. $88 million for Hanley Ramirez. $58 million for Nelson Cruz. $30 million for Billy Butler. $21 million for Michael Cuddyer, who played in 49 games last year. $10 million for Torii Hunter, who Detroit didn’t even want to retain.

This is the winter to be a right-handed hitter on the free agent market, because teams are flush with cash and many of them are trying to balance out line-ups that have become too left-handed. For reference, here are the 30-year trends in the distribution of plate appearances between righties, lefties, and switch-hitting position players.

The changes are fairly subtle, but note the distinct uptick in the red line, representing the share of plate appearances that has been given to left-handed batters over the years. While the number has historically been around 30%, it jumped up to 33% in 2008 and has increased up to 35% by 2014. Besides the one year blip in 2002, the last seven years are the only seasons in the entire sample where left-handed hitters have been given one-third of all the plate appearances in Major League Baseball.

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On Friday night, when the A’s announced they traded Josh Donaldson for Brett Lawrie and three prospects, the public reaction was swift and harsh. How could Billy Beane trade one of the best players in baseball for so little in return? Did he not even bother calling other teams to let them know that Donaldson was available, since they obviously would have made better offers than this? Why even bother trading Donaldson if this was the best they could do? Even as I made the case for the deal being a reasonable one for the A’s, the popular consensus was that the A’s screwed up.

It all felt very similar. As I read through the reactions, I couldn’t help but feel like we just had this conversation four months ago, when the Rays traded David Price to Detroit for Drew Smyly and Nick Franklin. Price was a true ace, traded for players who were labeled a back-end starter and a utility infielder. Where was the upside? Why was this the best the Rays could do? Had they overplayed their hand, or were they just not smart enough to take a better deal that returned pieces with star potential? Like the Donaldson trade, I felt the deal was reasonable for the Rays, but the public sentiment strongly disagreed.

If we go back a year, the Doug Fister trade elicited the same kind of responses, though I shared in the shock at how little Detroit got back in that trade for a quality pitcher. But our reactions were basically the same, wondering how the Tigers turned a highly valuable asset into a collection of lower-upside role players. Wouldn’t other teams have bid more? How was this the best offer?

Two years ago, it was the Justin Upton trade that caused the public to scratch their heads. Martin Prado and some lesser prospects was not the haul that people were expecting, and even as I thought it made some sense for Arizona, the consensus was that this deal was a debacle for the Diamondbacks. A 25 year old slugger headed into his prime should bring back far more than in return than an above average player and prospects with limited ceilings, right?

Maybe not. As trades of this nature pile up, perhaps we need to consider that it’s not the teams selling the star players who are reading the markets incorrectly, but the public that expects returns above what teams are consistently getting. After all, is it more likely that our perception of a player’s trade value is incorrect, or that Billy Beane, Andrew Friedman, Dave Dombrowski, and Kevin Towers all decided to take inferior offers to what other teams were making?

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Four months ago, the A’s made the biggest splash of the summer, trading elite prospect Addison Russell in a package that landed them both Jeff Samardzija and Jason Hammel. It was a clear go-for-it trade, giving up a player rated as one of the 5-10 best prospects in baseball in exchange for a short-term upgrade, as they were renting just a few months of Hammel’s services, and only getting another year and change from Samardzija. It was the kind of deal that the team would likely regret if they didn’t have a deep playoff run in either 2014 or 2015. They followed up on that aggressive stance by trading Yoenis Cespedes for Jon Lester, moving even more of their assets into the present at the expense of the future.

We know what happened to finish out 2014; the A’s played very poorly down the stretch, lost out in the division race to the Angels, and then saw the Royals literally outrun them in Game 163. The window that the team worked so hard to open slammed shut in their face. Lester and Hammel are both going to pitch elsewhere next year, and Jed Lowrie and Luke Gregerson are almost certainly going to find new homes this winter as well. Next year’s A’s were simply never going to look like last year’s version, and the A’s just made extra sure of that by trading away their best player, third baseman Josh Donaldson.

On the surface, it’s easy to look at this move and think that it suggests the A’s are switching back into a build-for-the-future mode. Beane’s post-trade comments even suggest that this is perhaps the right interpretation of this trade. From MLB.com’s Jane Lee:

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After weeks of rumors linking him to the Phillies, Braves, Padres, and Giants, Yasmany Tomas has reportedly signed with the Arizona Diamondbacks, according to MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez. The deal guarantees Tomas $68.5 million over six years, but critically, it apparently contains an opt-out after the fourth year; a concession which may have allowed the D’Backs to sign Tomas for less than the reported asking price.

Kiley McDaniel wrote up Tomas back in September. I’ll quote liberally from that piece here:

The consensus is that as a prospect Tomas ranks behind White Sox 1B Jose Abreu, who got six years and $68 million before the season, as Tomas is a riskier bat with less of a track record and a little less raw power. Many scouts prefer (Rusney) Castillo, who got seven years and $72.5 million last month, as Castillo is a plus-plus runner that can play an up-the-middle position and is a little better bet to hit for some scouts, as well.

That said, Abreu and Castillo were both signed for their age-27 seasons while Tomas will be 24 next year and should be big league ready at some point in 2015. Scouts on the low-end for Tomas mention Dayan Viciedo as a comparable while more scouts think Yoenis Cespedes is a better offensive comparison, though Cespedes is quicker-twitch athlete with more speed and defense value.

While Kiley was attempting to compare and contrast the recent Cuban free agents for market valuation reasons, his projected peak line is almost a dead ringer for what Justin Upton has done in the big leagues, as I noted last week. Kiley’s guess of a .275/.350/.480 would equal out to about a 130 wRC+ in a neutral park, so even if he’s a minor defensive liability, that line would still make Tomas an above average player, probably in the +3 WAR range.

However, reports suggested that some teams felt that he profiled more as a DH, and if the defense is more Michael Morse than Brandon Moss, that could limit his overall value, especially in the National League. Whether this turns out for Arizona might depend entirely on how well he’s able to field his position; the D’Backs probably don’t need another Mark Trumbo, though Tomas will also expected to be a better hitter.

With just four team-controlled years, the D’Backs are buying Tomas’ age 24-27 seasons, and allowing him to potentially hit free agency again at perhaps the peak of his career. This seems like a near perfect fit for Tomas, as he gets $68 million in guaranteed money if he sucks, and yet he still gets a chance for a mega-contract if the power is as advertised. The opt-out could even give him the leverage to renegotiate into a much-larger deal with Arizona in a year or two if he follows the Cespedes/Puig/Abreu career path, as I’d imagine the White Sox would already be looking to tear up their deal with Abreu if he was only three years away from free agency.

By giving the fourth year opt-out, the D’Backs are limiting their own upside if Tomas hits, while still taking on all the risk associated with projecting performance from a guy who has never played in the U.S. before. However, a $68 million risk isn’t really that substantial of an investment anymore, and if he hits like scouts have been projecting, he should easily be worth the contract before he opts out. If Arizona backloaded enough of the money so that they can substantial value in the first four years of the deal, then the benefits could easily be worth the risk.

If Tomas is more of a DH than an outfielder, or if his raw power isn’t accompanied by a decent approach at the plate, the D’Backs could end up paying $68 million for a player who might fit better in the AL. That said, even if that does prove to be the case, he’d probably still have some appeal to teams in the junior circuit, and the price tag is low enough that he shouldn’t be too terribly hard to move if it comes to that; after all, we just saw Billy Butler get 3/$30M from the A’s, and Tomas has now signed for a similar annual average value.

Cuban free agents have proven to be remarkable bargains of late. The opt-out will serve to make this one less of a bargain, most likely, but it still seems like a reasonable risk for the Diamondbacks to take. $11 million per year for right-handed power might quickly look like a bargain if the rest of the skillset is even reasonably passable.

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The Red Sox had too many hitters before they signed both Pablo Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez to lucrative contracts, and now, they have perhaps the deepest line-up in all of baseball. But they still don’t have any pitching, and they simply don’t have enough spots in the line-up to spread around between their talented hitters. Rarely has a team’s need to make a trade (or two) been so obvious.

However, finding a natural trade partner for Boston’s needs is a little tricky. Their most obvious trade chip, Yoenis Cespedes, has the right-handed power that a number of teams seek, but because he’s only under contract for one more season, the teams that will be most interested in acquiring his services are teams that are trying to win in 2015. And teams that are trying to win next year are unlikely to part with the kind of pitching that the Red Sox covet; after all, if you’re trying to win next year, you probably want to hang on to your frontline pitching, since you’ll need it yourself.

There is one contender who has signaled a willingness to move a frontline starting pitcher: the Washington Nationals. With both Jordan Zimmermann and Doug Fister set for free agency after next season — as well as shortstop Ian Desmond, center fielder Denard Span, and relief ace Tyler Clippard — the Nationals are in a position where it might make sense for them to degrade their 2015 team slightly in order to make sure they don’t experience too steep off of a drop-off after next season. Zimmermann, in particular, would likely return a significant trade package, given his recent excellence and reasonable price tag.

But the Nationals simply don’t have any need for Yoenis Cespedes, or really many of the other pieces Boston might use to try and land an ace. Their outfield is stacked as it is, and their only real glaring hole is in the middle infield, where they need a second baseman for 2015 and likely a shortstop for 2016, after Desmond hits free agency. The Red Sox aren’t trading Xander Bogaerts or Mookie Betts for a rent-a-pitcher, however, and so the Nationals don’t really seem to match up with the Red Sox that well.

Perhaps there’s a way to make a deal work between the two teams, however, if we can identify a third team that covets the right-handed power the Red Sox have for sale, and has an extra talented middle infielder to send to the nation’s capital. Enter the Seattle Mariners.

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