Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat – 11/26/14

Dave Cameron: Happy Thanksgiving, everyone. Let’s be thankful for an hour or so of baseball conversation.

Dave Cameron: The queue is now open.

Comment From Bret
A couple of reports out of Toronto are that the Jays have given Melky Cabrera a deadline to respond to their offer (believed to be 3-years / $39M) by the Winter Meetings. If you were Melky’s agent, do you advise him to take it?

Dave Cameron: Yeah. I don’t think he’s worth any more than that.

Comment From Cicero
Since Cargo and Tulo are unlikely to return value until health is more sure, shouldn’t the Rockies at least look to move Morneau, Stubbs and Rosario?

Dave Cameron: I disagree with the premise. I would bet several teams would pay for Tulo’s upside, even coming off the surgery.

Comment From AJ Preller
I made a run at Pablo Sandoval but it didn’t work out. What should I do now?

Dave Cameron: Be happy that your first attempt at a big move failed. If your sold on Tomas as a reasonable outfielder, he could make sense for them, but the focus should be on young player collection, not chasing aging free agents.

Comment From Bookie Metts
If it was your call, would you start the season with Betts or Victorino in RF? What do you think the Sox will do?

Dave Cameron: I’d imagine Betts/Castillo/Victorino will split CF/RF between them, so none of them are everyday guys. There’s no reason to have a clear starter/backup delineation there.

Comment From Joe C.
What type of bread do you use in your stuffing?

Dave Cameron: My in-laws live 20 minutes away, so my mother-in-law makes most of the main dishes. I’m responsible for cranberry sauce and orange rolls this year.

Comment From Joe C.
Brined and roasted turkey, or deep fried?

Dave Cameron: I’ve actually never had a deep fried turkey, despite living in the land of deep fried everything. I assume it’s probably pretty good, given that it’s fried and all.

Comment From The Oberamtmann
I’m guessing the Yanks get Headley, McCarthy and Drew (the last on a one-year deal). Does that sound right? Sadly, I don’t think they keep Robertson. If that’s their offseason, good or bad? Do you think that is what happens?

Dave Cameron: Report this morning said Yankees won’t go past three years for Headley. If that’s true, he goes elsewhere. And I wouldn’t be surprised if McCarthy was a pretty hot item after Lester signs, so they might not get him back either.

Comment From Northsider
The Marlins are looking for someone at 1B. Do you think they are looking for a veteran presence or a cost-controlled young player due to Stanton’s massive contract?

Dave Cameron: They made an offer to LaRoche, so it seems like more the former.

Comment From Ray
Happy Thanksgiving, Dave. What can the Dodgers expect in return for Matt Kemp now that Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval are off the market?

Dave Cameron: Hanley’s signing hurts them, I think. They’re trying to sell Kemp at 5/$107M, while Hanley only got 4/$88M. They’re going to have to eat money to move that contract, and Hanley getting less than what Kemp owed won’t help them make the claim othewrise.

Comment From Mike89
Any chance Niese or Gee could get a decent for SS for the Mets?

Dave Cameron: I don’t think so.

Comment From David
in your blockbuster – Why wouldn’t the Nats just send Souza to Seattle for Miller? Souza by all accounts is MLB ready and has power and speed. Would it be an overpay? seems like it could be a good match?

Dave Cameron: The goal of the trade for the Nationals would be to add to their long-term talent base. Swapping Souza for Miller would just move things around, and they’d still be facing a big drain this winter.

Comment From Manager General
Were the Red Sox signings simply a case of act now, ask questions later? So basically, secure the top FA bats out of the gate and use the next few months to figure out the rest?

Dave Cameron: I would assume they already have a pretty decent idea of what the trade market for Cespedes and others look like, and they decided they’d rather buy bats and trade for arms than pay the market price for pitching.

Comment From Happy Fun Ball
What’s with the scenic vista in the background? Did you pick that, or is CoverItLive trying to brighten our day?

Dave Cameron: That was a CIL addition. Apparently they’re trying to make the chat more cheery.

Comment From Guest
are the mariners still in on Tomas after signing Seager?

Dave Cameron: Seager extension won’t change their off-season plan at all; odds are they structured the deal so that he still gets the same amount he would have gotten in arbitration.

Comment From striker
You’ve mentioned before that offense ages better than defense. Can you provide me with a better understanding as to why?

Dave Cameron: Defense is based more on physical skills like speed and athleticism. Offense is based more on experience that is developed through repetition. Players get to the big leagues as good athletes, and lean more towards defense than offense early. They become better hitters as they see more pitching and adopt a better approach, which helps offset the decline in physical skills as they get older.

Comment From AL
Assuming health, who do you think is manning second next season for the rangers, Profar or Odor?

Dave Cameron: Whichever one they don’t trade for a pitcher or an outfielder.

Comment From Eric
Melky’s projection of 1.7 wins seems a little light. Is it possible it is being weighed down to heavily by his 2013 year where he was clearly hampered by a tumor in his spine?

Dave Cameron: Sure. Forecasts aren’t well equipped to handle performances which are caused by injuries, so you could argue that Steamer is underrating Cabrera a bit. Even with that adjustment, though, he’s still not a great player.

Comment From Ceej
Seeing what Hanley and Sandoval got, wouldn’t the Sox had been better off signing only 1 and beating the Cards trade for Heyward?

Dave Cameron: With what? They already traded all their pitching away.

Comment From AL
Can you please explain to me why the Brewers would rather have Adam Lind than Adam Laroche? I’m assuming that it’s monetary, but the difference is small for a full time player vs a platoon guy. Plus they would still have a useful long relief guy.

Dave Cameron: The difference between $25 million over two years and $7.5 million over one year is small?

Comment From Chris
If the Red Sox bring in a star pitcher either through free agency or trade, where does that leave the Phillies regarding Cole Hamels? Do they just wait til July to make a move at that point, or are there other trade partners available now?

Dave Cameron: My guess is Hamels doesn’t get traded this winter. Amaro’s perception of his value and his actual value are quite different, and he’ll probably wait until the trade deadline to hope a contender is desperate. He just better hope that Hamels doesn’t get injured and nuke all his value, following the Cliff Lee path.

Comment From Nick
Your trade proposal between the Sox-Mariners and Nationals is a complete joke. Obviously written through a Mariners fan boy eyes. Miller sucks and so does Hultzen.

Dave Cameron: It’s funny how every time I mention Brad Miller’s name, a legion of people mock and laugh, yet no one has ever put together any real cognizant argument for why a 25 year old SS who can hit at a league average level is actually not a good player.

Comment From Ceej
Based on what you know, how much would you want your favorite team to pay for Moncada? I’m a Bucco fan, but it’s fun to dream.

Dave Cameron: If he’s really the kind of talent that would go #1 overall in the draft, he’s worth $100 million.

Dave Cameron: The tricky thing is that because of the rules for under-22 international players, he can’t sign a major league deal, so any team buying his rights is just paying a signing bonus, and will have to add in his future salaries on top of that. Toss in the 100% tax that will be applied, and my guess is the winning bid ends up near $40 million.

Comment From JJB
Phillies would need to pay home much $ in order for a Hamels-for-Betts swap to work?

Dave Cameron: All of it. $110 million. And even then, I’m not sure Boston should do it.

Comment From vztaxes
Liked your FG on Fox article. What’s the math that equalizes trading players a year from free agency and cost controlled players under control for multiple years? How do you make it balance?

Dave Cameron: It depends on the team, and how much of a discount they’re putting on future wins. For a team like Seattle, they’re probably going to put a significant discount on those wins, given their desire to win while Cano/Felix/Iwakuma are still elite players. A team like Washington might put a much smaller discount on future wins in relation to current wins, given how much of an edge they have over the rest of their division

Comment From David
Think a Tyler Moore for one of the multiple, but not great pedigree SP from the marlins

Dave Cameron: Moore won’t fetch an SP. He’s pretty close to waiver bait.

Comment From Guest
Is it possible we’re seeing inflation at different rates in different markets? Even if total money flowing into the game stays the same, as long-term extensions of players who haven’t hit the free agent market increase, free agent salaries might increase, as the player supply becomes smaller than in the semi-recent past?

Dave Cameron: Maybe, but player demand will also go down. For every player who isn’t a free agent anymore, that means there’s also a team not looking to sign a player at that position.

Comment From Bruce
If the Marlins put Stanton on Waivers right now, how many teams would line up to take that contract?

Dave Cameron: All of them. Everyone could afford his salary for the next few years, and the teams who can’t afford the long-term cost would just extract the present value and then dump him after 2017 or so.

Comment From Happy Fun Ball
But the Nats have a surplus in the OF. Souza (or M Taylor) for Miller (or C. Taylor) gives them the INF upgrade they need, and would still allow them to flip Zimmerman to someone else in another deal if they really wanted to.

Dave Cameron: I think Souza is lined up to replace Span in the OF next year. If you’re looking at your 2016 roster, Souza isn’t replaceable.

Dave Cameron: At least not easily.

Dave Cameron: That doesn’t mean I don’t think it’s worth considering, but I don’t think it’s the kind of move the Nationals are trying to make.

Comment From vivalajeter
Syndergaard for Profar?

Dave Cameron: Don’t think the Mets would do that, given Profar’s health questions.

Comment From BassmanUW
To me, I think the odds of Lester going back to the Red Sox are vastly overstated. He might go back there if they are tied as the highest bidder, or maybe if they’re really minimally below that, but if he was so intent on signing there, he wouldn’t be going on the US tour. Not that the Red Sox won’t get him, but at certain points over the last week it’s been discussed as a foregone conclusion by some. Agree?

Dave Cameron: I agree that it’s not a foregone conclusion. I think he takes the most money, and that might not come from Boston.

Comment From moneyballmaher
Do you think Devon Travis will be starting 2b for the blue jays next year?

Dave Cameron: By the all-star break, yes. Probably not on Opening Day.

Comment From Kirby Wilson
Does the amount of innings that James Shields has pitched in recent years help his value because he is seen as a workhorse or hurt it because it seems like he has too many miles on him?

Dave Cameron: Both.

Comment From Manager General
Can you elaborate why Melky gets so little love around town? I’m a big Jays fan and thought he was a huge bright spot for the club last season. I don’t expect him to be a top-10 OF by any means, but 3-yr/$39 million seems like a solid deal for the Jays. Thanks!

Dave Cameron: He’s a one trick pony, so you’re betting entirely on the bat, and he doesn’t exactly have a consistent track record of hitting every year. If the bat regresses, he’s basically worthless, and there’s too much risk in the offensive performance to pay a significant contract for him.

Comment From Sam
How realistic would a Matt Kemp to Mariners trade be?

Dave Cameron: If Kemp gets traded, it’s probably the most likely option.

Comment From Jason
The Sox traded all their pitching? You mean besides Owens, E.Rodriguez, B. Johnson, Barnes, Ranaudo, de la Rosa, and Webster? Aren’t there some relatively strong prospects there?

Dave Cameron: The Braves didn’t want pitching prospects; they wanted a guy who could pitch in their rotation right now.

Comment From Starlin Castro
“a 25 year old SS who can hit at a league average level is actually not a good player.” Wait a minute, this sounds a year older than someone I know who you constantly call an unimpressive player…

Dave Cameron: Miller and Castro are three months apart, actually. And I think it’s pretty clear that Miller’s the better player; he’s a dramatically better baserunner and he doesn’t have Castro’s defensive lapses. And Castro is owed ~$40 million over the next five years, while Mliler will probably get about ~$15 million during the same time period.

Comment From Nick
Miller: .221/280/389 with terrible defense = Not good.

Dave Cameron: His career line is .241/.302/.389, which after you adjust for Safeco Field, is roughly league average. His defense at short is just fine. He’s a very good baserunner. Since he got to the big leagues, he’s basically been Jimmy Rollins. http://www.fangraphs.com/le…

Dave Cameron: J.J. Hardy got 3/40 for his decline years in the midst of a season where he posted a 90 wRC+. You really have to have your head in the sand to think that this skillset isn’t valued by big league teams.

Comment From Dan Duquette
If I’m offered Andrew Heaney straight up for Chris Davis, I take it in a second, right?

Dave Cameron: Without hesitation.

Comment From Mike
Trying to settle a debate with a friend: who would you rather give a 6 year contract to – Jon Lester this year or Jordan Zimmerman next year?

Dave Cameron: Probably Zimmermann, but it depends on the AAV too.

Comment From Sean
what kind of market could the Nats get for Denard Span? He’s in the same boat as Zimmermann/Fister/Clippard/Desmond as a 1 year guy and IMO he’s the one who they could replace the easiest (Souza/Taylor in the wings).

Dave Cameron: This is not a good winter to be selling a center fielder, so probably not enough to do it.

Comment From Humpty+Dumpty
What do the Sox do at 1st if they move Napoli to clear money? Is it sandoval there? Hanley?

Dave Cameron: Nava/Craig platoon.

Comment From Pirates Hurdles
Starlin Castro who has 3 – 3 win seasons in his career already is a worse player than Brad Miller, seems a bit delusional Dave. You can argue contract value, but head to head, come on man.

Dave Cameron: Castro has a career 98 wRC+, is projected for 101 next year. Miller has a career 95 wRC+, is projected for a 102 next year.

Dave Cameron: Miller is the better baserunner and defender.

Comment From Starlin Castro
I’ve got a career -3.1 UZR/150 to Miller’s 1.1; I’ve proven that I can be a consistent 110 wRC+ or so hitter as compared to Miller’s 86 last season; and my BsR is projected by Steamer to be -.6 to Miller’s .8. I’d say it’s far from “clear” that he’s better than me, even I agree that I’m not the stud everyone thinks I am.

Dave Cameron: A consistent 110 wRC+ hitter with a career number of 98? You’ve topped 110 once in five years.

Comment From Pirates Hurdles
Come on, Hardy was an established MLB starter, Miller had 1/2 of a good debut season the regressed a ton. apples and oranges.

Dave Cameron: He “regressed a ton” and was still a league average player. At 24.

Comment From Jim
Is there any legitimate argument against Pedro getting voted in first ballot?

Dave Cameron: No.

Comment From Eric
Do you think the presence of Devon Travis should keep AA from going out and acquiring a top infielder rather than (at minimum) a stop-gap? The relatively high probability of injuries with Reyes/Lawrie along with Travis still probably being a ways off makes me think Headley would be such a perfect target / fit.

Dave Cameron: Headley could be a good fit. Given Lawrie’s health problems, I wouldn’t avoid signing a smart deal for Headley.

Comment From CC
Is there any explanation for why the very best hitters in history have been left handed (Ruth, Bonds, Williams, Cobb, Gehrig), or is it just noise?

Dave Cameron: They get the platoon advantage more often.

Comment From Marcus A.
What number do you think is “fair” for Tomas? It seems like there’s so much risk and so much we don’t know, but the upside will still tantalize.

Dave Cameron: If he’s what scouts are saying he is — an above average slugger with meh defense and baserunning — than he’s probably a +2 to +3 WAR guy, but young enough to potentially improve some. That’s probably worth $80-$100 million, maybe more if you think his defense isn’t a big negative.

Comment From Josh
Castro’s WRC+ by year: 99, 109, 100, 72, 115. I will say you’re putting an awful lot of stock in that 72 when citing his career total.

Dave Cameron: He’s been almost exactly average twice, above average twice, and terrible once. That’s the profile of a guy you should project to be close to average. Maybe you think he should project for a 105 wRC+ instead of 101? Beyond that, you’re not putting enough weight on the bulk of his career.

Comment From AL
Thanks for wasting 20 minutes on defending Brad Miller.

Dave Cameron: You’re weclome!

Dave Cameron: Alright, off to grab some lunch and start the Thanksgiving cookery. Enjoy the holidays everyone.