| 2:01 |
: FanGraphs works today!
|
| 2:02 |
: And the thunderstorm hasn’t knocked out my power.
|
| 2:02 |
: So I’ve dodged all of Cistulli’s best weapons to get here today.
|
| 2:02 |
: Zack Britton as a Dodger is highly unfair.
|
| 2:02 |
: I’m not sure the Orioles are truly motivated enough at this time to pull triggers for real.
|
| 2:02 |
: Is a team that’s 41-39 one game over .500, or two games over .500?
|
Episode 755
Managing editor Dave Cameron has begun publishing his annual Trade Value series. This is the podcast episode about the Trade Value series.
A reminder: FanGraphs’ Ad Free Membership exists. Click here to learn more about it and share some of your disposable income with FanGraphs.
Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.
You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.
Audio after the jump. (Approximately 46 min play time.)
Podcast: Play in new window | Download
Subscribe: RSS
Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric forefather Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game.
How are they calculated? Haphazardly, is how. An explanation of the components and formulae which produce these NERD scores is available here. All objections to the numbers here are probably justified, on account of how this entire endeavor is absurd.
Most Highly Rated Game
Milwaukee at New York AL | 13:05 ET
Nelson (104.0 IP, 77 xFIP-) vs. Tanaka (97.2 IP, 87 xFIP-)
For the second straight day, the author’s haphazardly constructed algorithm has selected a Brewers-Yankees games as the day’s most compelling. Each club’s probability of taking their division remains within shouting distance of 50% by the coin-flip method (which seems to best model how the dumb human mind conceives of a playoff race). Accordingly, both clubs are confronted by a sense of mounting urgency.
Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Milwaukee Radio.
Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric forefather Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game.
How are they calculated? Haphazardly, is how. An explanation of the components and formulae which produce these NERD scores is available here. All objections to the numbers here are probably justified, on account of how this entire endeavor is absurd.
Most Highly Rated Game
Milwaukee at New York AL | 13:05 ET
Suter (21.0 IP, 93 xFIP-) vs. Severino (99.2 IP, 70 xFIP-)
This game — or at least the appeal of this game as measured by the author’s haphazardly constructed algorithm — is the product of multiple improbable outcomes. Like the outcome of the Milwaukee Brewers ascending to and retaining a hold of first place in the NL Central, for one. And like the outcome of Brent Suter recording better-than-average run-prevention and fielding-independent numbers over any quantity of major-league innings, for another. And like the outcome of life arising from non-living matter and then, a billion years or whatever later, having arms and legs and hats and buildings.
Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Milwaukee Radio.
Fringe Five Scoreboards: 2016 | 2015 | 2014 | 2013.
The Fringe Five is a weekly regular-season exercise, introduced a few years ago by the present author, wherein that same author utilizes regressed stats, scouting reports, and also his own fallible intuition to identify and/or continue monitoring the most compelling fringe prospects in all of baseball.
Central to the exercise, of course, is a definition of the word fringe, a term which possesses different connotations for different sorts of readers. For the purposes of the column this year, a fringe prospect (and therefore one eligible for inclusion among the Five) is any rookie-eligible player at High-A or above who (a) was omitted from the preseason prospect lists produced by Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, MLB.com, John Sickels*, and (most importantly) lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen and also who (b) is currently absent from a major-league roster. Players appearing on any updated list — such as the revised top 100 released in by Baseball America or BP’s recent midseason top-50 list — will also be excluded from eligibility.
*All 200 names!
In the final analysis, the basic idea is this: to recognize those prospects who are perhaps receiving less notoriety than their talents or performance might otherwise warrant.
Sandy Baez, RHP, Detroit (Profile)
Signed for just $49,000 out of the Dominican in 2011, Baez is the rare example of a pitcher with both strong statistical indicators and physical tools who doesn’t also occupy a place near the top of industry prospect lists. The 23-year-old right-hander has had strong 2017 campaign, especially of late. Over his last five starts — a span of 29.2 innings and 117 batters — Baez has recorded strikeout and walk rates of 35.9% and 8.6%, respectively, never striking out fewer than 30% of opposing hitters in any individual start.
When Eric Longenhagen assessed the Detroit system this offseason, he cited Baez’s fastball as a strength but the secondaries as a weakness. Velocity remains an asset. According to Baez and his coaches, however, both his changeup and slider seem to have exhibited some indications of improvement.
Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric forefather Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game.
How are they calculated? Haphazardly, is how. An explanation of the components and formulae which produce these NERD scores is available here. All objections to the numbers here are probably justified, on account of how this entire endeavor is absurd.
Most Highly Rated Game
Boston at Tampa Bay | 19:10 ET
Sale (120.2 IP, 62 xFIP-) vs. Faria (32.1 IP, 78 xFIP-)
Imagine how good Chris Sale has been in your head. Now imagine a pitcher who’s been roughly 18% worse than that. Who do you see? Jacob Faria, is one possible answer according to the numbers. Faria’s been one of the majors’ best pitchers since his debut almost precisely a month ago. This game represents an opportunity to observe both him and Sale and the wondrous indoors of Tampa Bay’s Tropicana Field.
Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Boston or Tampa Bay Radio.
Episode 754
Owing to a confluence of circumstances, including his own impending fatherhood, the author is compelled to ask Dave Cameron: “If a parent’s sole, awful intent were to raise a future major leaguer, how would he or she go about that endeavor?” Using both objective data and also wild speculation, the guest attempts to answer that hopeless question.
A reminder: FanGraphs’ Ad Free Membership exists. Click here to learn more about it and share some of your disposable income with FanGraphs.
Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.
You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.
Audio after the jump. (Approximately 1 hr 18 min play time.)
Podcast: Play in new window | Download
Subscribe: RSS
Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric forefather Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game.
How are they calculated? Haphazardly, is how. An explanation of the components and formulae which produce these NERD scores is available here. All objections to the numbers here are probably justified, on account of how this entire endeavor is absurd.
Most Highly Rated Game
Arizona at Los Angeles NL | 22:10 ET
Godley (64.0 IP, 80 xFIP-) vs. Wood (73.2 IP, 60 xFIP-)
One might not feel comfortable regarding either Zack Godley or Alex Wood as above-average — or even elite — major-league pitchers. One, employing reason, likely feels uncomfortable about a number of other things in the world, as well, though. Perhaps tonight’s game is best regarded, then, as a training ground for discomfort.
Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Los Angeles NL Television.
Episode 753
The prolific Travis Sawchik is a former beat reporter for the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review and author of the book Big Data Baseball. He’s also the guest on this edition of the program, during which he discusses (a) the politics of area Little League baseball and (b) his conversation with Jon Lester regarding the yips but mostly (c) his championship title in a Hardball Dynasty league composed of rival baseball writers.
A reminder: FanGraphs’ Ad Free Membership exists. Click here to learn more about it and share some of your disposable income with FanGraphs.
Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.
You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.
Audio after the jump. (Approximately 1 hr 18 min play time.)
Podcast: Play in new window | Download
Subscribe: RSS
Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric forefather Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game.
How are they calculated? Haphazardly, is how. An explanation of the components and formulae which produce these NERD scores is available here. All objections to the numbers here are probably justified, on account of how this entire endeavor is absurd.
Most Highly Rated Game
Arizona at Los Angeles NL | 21:10 ET
Corbin (90.2 IP, 94 xFIP-) vs. Kershaw (116.1 IP, 66 xFIP-)
The Dodgers currently possess the second-best offense in the majors and also the fourth-best defense in the majors. Or, at the very least, they’ve recorded the second-best offensive and fourth-best defensive marks so far. In either case, it’s not surprising they currently occupy first place in the NL West. What might be surprising is that the D-backs are situated just 2.5 games behind them in that division despite having recorded less strong offensive and defensive marks. Probability suggests that they’ll finish the evening either 1.5 or 3.5 games behind.
Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Los Angeles NL Television.
