Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 7/13/17 by Carson Cistulli July 13, 2017 2:01 Dan Szymborski: FanGraphs works today! 2:02 Dan Szymborski: And the thunderstorm hasn’t knocked out my power. 2:02 Dan Szymborski: So I’ve dodged all of Cistulli’s best weapons to get here today. 2:02 TimMorris: Zack Britton as a Dodger is highly unfair. 2:02 Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure the Orioles are truly motivated enough at this time to pull triggers for real. 2:02 Julio Pepper: Is a team that’s 41-39 one game over .500, or two games over .500? 2:03 Dan Szymborski: You can argue both ways philosophically. 2:03 Dan Szymborski: One game change makes them .500 2:03 Dan Szymborski: But it would require them two additional games to get to .500 2:03 Zonk: Your hot take on Quintana Trade…GO! 2:04 Dan Szymborski: A fair package. Quintana’s very valuable. I dont’ think, however, that this was necessarily a better return than they would’ve gotten in winter if they closed a deal. 2:04 Zonk: What do the Brewers do now before the deadline? Tweak on the cheap, or should they consider trading top prospects to keep pace with the Cubs? 2:04 Dan Szymborski: Former. They feel a year too early 2:04 S: Realistically, what are the chances that the Rockies resign Greg Holland? 2:05 Dan Szymborski: I’d go 30/70 against. But who knows? This is a team that gave Desmond $70 million to play none of the positions that you’d pay $70 million to Desmond to play. 2:05 ledwards: Dan, why do you hate <insert my team here> and <insert my favorite player here> so much? 2:05 Dan Szymborski: Because you touch yourself. 2:05 Coppy: In light of the Quintana trade, is it fair to say that Teheran can bring back a prospect like Kyle Tucker + another top 100 prospect from the Astros? 2:05 Dan Szymborski: No. 2:06 Dan Szymborski: Quintana has the better outlook. 2:06 RotoLando: Who is the first person to die on the season premier of Game of Thrones? 2:06 Dan Szymborski: Random Soldier #4 as the ships land on Westeros? 2:06 Q-Ball: Ken Rosenthal is posting to Facebook, because his employer doesn’t care about written content anymore. What is happening to baseball writing? Is Fangraphs going all-video? 2:06 Dan Szymborski: WTF Fox Sports mainly 2:07 Kyle: Are the Cubs done with their SP search or do you see them moving Candelario for a borderline #5 starter-type? Maybe a guy like Jesse Hahn from OAK or Matt Boyd from DET? 2:07 Dan Szymborski: I think this is the pitcher move. 2:07 Dan Szymborski: I don’t think they have as much to gain for a second, borderliney guy 2:07 RotoLando: Which is a better fit for Eloy Jimenez, Cubs or White Sox? 2:07 Dan Szymborski: Well, White Sox 2:07 Troy: Zips thoughts on Garrett Cooper? Recently traded to the Yankees. MILB depth or possible MLB guy? 2:07 Dan Szymborski: Don’t have the ZiPS, but he’s improved enough to be an OK fill-in fora couple years, I think. 2:09 Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: What is your take on Mike Zunino? 2:09 Dan Szymborski: He’s a superstar offensive catcher and the worst player in the history of baseball, depending on the day. 2:10 Dan Szymborski: Like a weird sports-related Batman villain they discarded when they figured that Harvey Dent made more sense. 2:10 Dan Szymborski: “Look, Bob Kane, yeah The Zoonster goes 1-for-30 sometimes, but I’m not sure why Commissioner Gordon would really care about that.” 2:11 ledwards: what do you think the Dodgers should do trade wise this cycle? My feeling is an RP arm and maybe a depth piece in the OF… 2:11 Dan Szymborski: The team is very deep, I t hink they’ll do a quiet need-based add. 2:11 Jeff’s Friend: Is Aaron Judge really a .300 hitter. Or at least a .290? Does a big second half regression await us? 2:11 Dan Szymborski: I think the BA goes down, but not the power 2:11 Pat: How does the return the ChiSox got today compare to what they asked the Astros for? 2:11 Dan Szymborski: It’s tricky in that we dont’ really *know* what the Astros would, in their heart-of-hearts, eventually give up. 2:12 Dan Szymborski: That Paulino/Martes/Tucker rumor was probably never offered. Astros *might* have gone there if they were desperate, but I’m not sure about that and they weren’t desperate. 2:12 Dan Szymborski: (Back in teh winter) 2:13 Dan Szymborski: But Paulino/Tucker/two fillins? I’m not sure the Astros wouldn’t have agreed to that. 2:14 Attila the Hunplugged: What do you think of Marco Estrada this year? Peripherals aren’t quite matching up. Is there something the numbers aren’t catching? 2:15 Dan Szymborski: I don’t have the pitch data in front of me, but from what I’ve seen, his changeup just doesn’t feel like it’s as nasty as the last few years 2:15 Jordan: Should the Jays move everything not nailed to the floor or is their enough meet on the bone that a quick “retool” can be successful? 2:15 Dan Szymborski: I think a quick retool can be successful, but it’ll make the eventual rebuild worse. 2:15 Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure their window is that wide. 2:16 Hazelton Way: i like the quintana addition, but i still don’t see the cubs doing much more than making the playoffs with an early exit at best. they just don’t seem to have it this year. am i off base here? 2:16 Dan Szymborski: You make the playoffs, you’re a realistic WS team. 2:17 Larry (WI): Best guess – with whom does Kakie Bryan sign? Something about the Quintana trade has me thinking the White Sox might drive hard in the paint. Just an instinct though… 2:17 Dan Szymborski: What, you missed Kakie’s misplay in the IL game? Tsk stsk. 2:17 CamdenWarehouse: How happy are you that we live in a world where Quintana’s trade was broken by someone named KatyPerrysBootyHole? 2:17 Dan Szymborski: This is Twitter. 2:17 AJ: Which cat would you take to a cats at the ballpark day? 2:17 Dan Szymborski: Galileo. He’s not skittish around people and won’t run away. 2:18 Dan Szymborski: Even as a kitten, he walked is slow purposeful marches. 2:18 Dan Szymborski: And if he somehow got away, I’d just find him at the nearest person with food. 2:19 JKD: Obviously from a baseball perspective, the Quintana trade is huge: gives the Cubs a bump in trying to catch the Brewers, and a more steady base for the next several years. But from a strategic and analytical perspective it’s… kind of boring? It’s a pretty fair trade of discounted future value for present value, from a team that needs the former to a team that needs the latter. Nobody gets fleeced anymore 🙁 2:19 Dan Szymborski: Yeah, boring in that sense. It’s a very reasonable trade that fulfills both teams needs and wants. 2:19 Gub Gub: Where’s the beef? 2:20 Dan Szymborski: The flank steak I grilled off yesterday is carved and in the fridge. Eating it with arugula, plums, and roquefort. 2:20 P: Is there another guy actually available out there who can legitimately slot in to the top end of Astros rotation? It kinda seemed like Q was the only actually obtainable top top end guy on the market 2:20 Dan Szymborski: He was the most interesting one, by far. 2:20 Dan Szymborski: But the team doesn’t have a lot of motivation for him. 2:20 Dan Szymborski: They were probably the contender with the least need for Quintana 2:20 CamdenWarehouse: Am I allowed to like both you and Carson? 2:20 Dan Szymborski: Yes, but you’ll end up in purgatory someday. 2:20 Hazelton Way: at what point does maddon’s i’m a fun guy routine start to wear thin? i mean i’m already there, but it seems the media and most fans aren’t. don’t get me wrong great mgr, but at some point you gotta show up and just play ball. 2:20 Dan Szymborski: Not yet 2:20 Robert: What would you rather watch, 1 27-out inning, or 27 1-out innings? 2:21 Dan Szymborski: 1 27-out inning. 2:21 Dan Szymborski: Watching the pitcher changes would be hialrious 2:21 Anon: Why is your name so easy to spell? 2:21 Dan Szymborski: I’m a good speller. 2:21 Dan Szymborski: Though not always a good typer. 2:21 Dan Szymborski: Especially on the laptop 2:21 Bill: Does the return for Quintana seem light to you? 3+ years of a 4+ WAR pitcher for pennies. Maybe Eloy is better than I thought? 2:21 Dan Szymborski: No, I think it’s a fair return. 2:22 Dunt: White Sox should trade Tommy Kahnle, right? What is suitable return for a guy like him that is posting elite numbers, but doesnt have the track record of a Miller/Chapman/etc.? 2:23 Dan Szymborski: I think you make him the closer for a year and then trade him. 2:23 Chris: Hi Dan, would you trade Robbie ray for Christian yelich and Danny Duffy? 2:23 Dan Szymborski: Yes 2:24 CamdenWarehouse: Would you want to incorporate Healey’s pitcher similarity scores into ZiPS if you could? 2:24 Dan Szymborski: Wait, what? Do you mean Tucker Healy? 2:24 Dan Szymborski: And why couldn’t I? 2:24 Dan Szymborski: Though it doesn’t really guide guys since he doesn’t have a career yet 2:24 steve: Is 1B Garrett Cooper worth a pickup in a 12 team mixed league since he was acquired by the Yankees today? 2:24 Dan Szymborski: not in a 12-team mixed 2:24 JimboSlice: Really torn with Schwarbs. Is he worth holding onto in a 12tm H2H with people like, Chisenhall/Schebler/Maybin/Puig on the wire? 2:24 Dan Szymborski: In this situ, no. 2:24 Jordan: hang on…. does yesterdays outage mean that we wont get a Dave or Eno chat this week? 2:25 Dan Szymborski: I have no idea! 2:25 Murse Wigwam: And now….the starting lineup for your Thursday FanGraphs Chat! (cue Alan Parsons Project) 2:25 Anon: Lots of names have 5 consonants in a row. 2:25 Dan Szymborski: I think there’s some symbol over the z over the name if you go back to Poland 2:25 Dan Szymborski: but yeah, I’m not doing that in either way 2:25 Cam’Ron: Do you see any team getting a bigger package for a pitcher this deadline than the WSox just did? 2:25 Dan Szymborski: No. I think this was about the offer. 2:25 greg: Does anyone else, when they see Biagini’s name in print, think of that line from the moneyball movie when the new husband is like, “oh, and I heard you lost Gia… Giam… Giambani??” 2:27 Q-Ball: What should the Cards be looking to do this deadline? Should they be buyers, or just holders? 2:28 Dan Szymborski: I think they’re buyers for reliever or two, probably should be tinkerers elsewhere 2:28 Jeb: With what the White Sox just got for Quintana. Should the Pirates definitely dangle Cole and Cutch out there and see what they can get? 2:28 Dan Szymborski: I would. 2:28 Dan Szymborski: Unless the offers are terrible, Cutch would be in a new uniform in August. 2:28 Hannah Hochevar: Better cutting of a Q: Chicago White Sox today or the lead singer of Live in the 90s? 2:29 Justin: With what Quintana just fetched back for the White Sox, what could Cole fetch back for the Pirates? 2:29 Dan Szymborski: Certainly less, I feel. 2:29 Michael: Who’s the next starter most likely to get moved in your opinion? Position player? 2:30 Dan Szymborski: I wouldn’t be surprised to see Gray go and J.D. Martinez. 2:30 Blackburn: I thought the Cubs overpaid again, just like they did for Chapman last year. 2:30 Dan Szymborski: They overpaid in value, but they didn’t overpay for tempo. 2:30 ledwards: As a self-professed stat nerd, why are you so bad at stats? I’ll hang-up and listen… 2:30 Dan Szymborski: Heh 2:30 Oddball Herrera: Thinking of Acuna, what are your thoughts on prospects who move through levels in the minors this quickly? Thinking it through, it seems like if they don’t stick at a level long enough, they may keep moving on before the scouting report catches up to them and never need to learn to adjust or address weaknesses. 2:30 Dan Szymborski: There’s a few things here 2:30 Dan Szymborski: Guys that blow through minors tend to be the ones that are supremely talented, because it’s not easy 2:31 Dan Szymborski: Though I think the ones that do have a significant flaw can use some consolidation time in the high minors 2:31 Gub Gub: How many people in the circle of internet baseball writers bother to get hair plugs? 2:31 Dan Szymborski: Not many, I don’t think 2:31 Dan Szymborski: Depends on the group 2:31 Guest: It seems that within the Fangraphs community, Robinson Cano might be a little bit under-appreciated. He’s frequently labeled as a fringe HOFer here (only 51 fWar), but he has 64.5 bWar. Most commentators outside of Fangraphs seem to align with bWar’s estimation of his career, unreservedly calling him a “future Hall of Famer.” Have there been other cases of other players with such a wide gap between bWar/fWar, and which side do you fall on when it comes to Cano? I’ve been perplexed by this divide for a while, and I’d love to see a deeper examination. 2:31 Dan Szymborski: Probably Hall of Fame worthy when his career ends. 2:32 Dan Szymborski: Will he get in? That’s trickier. Stupid ten-player limit logjam plus too many shitty voters equals shitty. 2:32 Big Joe Mufferaw: I have a HR derby tomorrow (Soft ball). What is you piece of advice? 2:32 Dan Szymborski: Beer makes everything better except driving. 2:32 Sam: Who would bring back more in a trade- Sonny Gray or Steven Matz. Feels like Matz is pretty underrated, no? 2:32 Dan Szymborski: I think it depends on the team really. 2:33 Dan Szymborski: I think Matz fetches more, but won’t be traded. 2:33 Brian Sabean: Tell me what’s the best I could get for Cueto? 2:33 Dan Szymborski: Surprisingly little, I think. His opt-out really creates a complicating factor. 2:33 Dan Szymborski: Becuase if he’s awesome, you may very well acquire him for two months. If he’s terrible, you may very well be stuck with him for years 2:33 Jake: When do you think we will see pitching framing included in catcher WAR? 2:33 Dan Szymborski: Ask Sean and Dave 2:33 Dan Szymborski: I conservatively include it in ZiPS 2:35 vilnius b.: Dan: You’re an Orioles fan like me. Can you explain to me why they wouldn’t trade guys like Machado, Britton and maybe even Brach? The farm system is in tatters and this seems the ideal time to start rebuilding. 2:36 Dan Szymborski: Excess conservatism. 2:36 BB: What do you know about Garrett Cooper, the first basemen that Milwaukee just traded to the Yankees? 2:36 Dan Szymborski: Big dude who only had gapper power, but possibly having a breakout/peak season. But it’s the PCL. 2:36 Dan Szymborski: I don’t think he’s a long-term starter yet, but hes’ interesting 2:36 Daron: Are we burying the lede here by not talking about today’s big trade? 1B Garrett Cooper to Yanks for LHP Tyler Webb in return to Brewers pen. 2:37 Travis: When does Acuna take Markakis’ spot? 2:37 Dan Szymborski: When the Braves are good enough they can afford to part with their inspirational leader. 2:37 Michael: are the red sox still going to get a 3B? top targets? 2:37 Dan Szymborski: They should trade nothing for Devers. 2:37 lendel : Are the odds above 50% that Pablo Sandoval finally gets DFA when his “rehab” assignment ends? 2:37 Dan Szymborski: You woudl think. 2:37 Anon: Are individual teams allowed to pay minor leaguers more money? I would think it would help their development if they weren’t living in poverty. 2:37 Dan Szymborski: It’s a complex issue. Only some teams are owned by their clubs. 2:38 Miles: What kind of contacts are Cain and Bruce looking at this offseason? 2:38 Dan Szymborski: That’s an August article type thing for me! 2:38 Dex: Reed and Bruce for Verdugo make sense? 2:38 Dan Szymborski: For the Mets, yes. The Dodgers would probably laugh at that offer and then die and their souls would comically float up like the weasels in Roger Rabbit. 2:39 Dan Szymborski: Verdugo for Reed and Bruce if Bruce was as good as the more deluded Mets fans actually think he is would still be a bad trade. 2:39 Tim: So, I have to activate both Conforto and Trout from my DL spots and SP is too thin to drop anyone and carry a bench bat, SO, I have to drop 2 of the following: CarGo, Reddick, Upton, or Bruce. Leaning toward bouncing CarGo and Reddick. Thoughts? 2:39 Dan Szymborski: CarGo of the group, I think. 2:39 Panda Links: Would you shave your mustache, if FanGraphs told you to? Alternately, would you grow a mustache for any employer? 2:39 Dan Szymborski: Only ESPN can give me hair tips. 2:40 Dan Szymborski: I grow awful mustaches. There’s no reason for me to grow one. 2:40 Dan Szymborski: And if I grew one, I’d probably look like Gacy, which nobody wants 2:40 Tommy B: Eloy > Tucker , Martes > Cease so pretty close no? 2:41 Dan Szymborski: If we’re talking winter, I’d go Martes/Tucker over Eloy/Cease 2:41 John: What are your thoughts on Addison Russell offensively the next two years? Top 10 offensive shortstop? 2:41 Dan Szymborski: Edge of top 10, but good glove. 2:41 Chaps: Did the Quintana trade just set a steep price for the rest of the starting pitching market? Or are the other starting pitcher prices more or less unchanged after this trade? 2:41 Dan Szymborski: No market changes. This was about the going rate for Quintana’s abilities/contract. 2:41 Dan Szymborski: Most pitchers aren’t as interesting. 2:41 Johnny Cueto: What uniform will I be wearing on September 1st and what about in 2018? 2:42 Dan Szymborski: I suspect in the end, the hurdles of trading him is Giants over the field. 2:42 JD Martin: ZiPS question, does the system take into account in-season velocity changes for projecting pitchers ROS? If so how much of a factor does it play compared to other things? 2:42 Dan Szymborski: No. In-season is less sophisticated than the normal year-to-year version. 2:42 RotoLando: This is bad news…for Courtney Hawkins 2:42 Matt: How often do you play the Sima and create Dan Simborsky? 2:42 Dan Szymborski: I create weirder people than me. 2:43 Guest: What would you have given up for Q, if you were Jeff Luhnow? And who do they go after now? 2:43 Dan Szymborski: If *I* had been the Astros, I would have given the Sox less than the Cubs did. 2:43 Dan Szymborski: I’m just not as motivated as the CUbs are at this juncture. 2:43 Xander: Saw somewhere that Astros trade for DeGrom would have to *start* with Bregman, Tucker and Martes. Is that something was you could see either team biting on? 2:44 Dan Szymborski: Well, the Mets should, the Astros shouldn’t. 2:45 Dan Szymborski: Nor would the Astros consdier this. 2:45 Dan Szymborski: I don’t think. 2:45 Dodgers: Is their any chance JD Martinez ends up in LA? 2:45 Dan Szymborski: Probably not. 2:45 Dodgers: Would Alex Verdugo be enough for Verlander if Los Angeles took his whole contract on? 2:46 Dan Szymborski: Alex Verdugo for the privilege of getting Verlander at 2.33/65? Tigers should jump at that and won’t. Dodgers should hang their heads in shame. 2:46 Xolo: Does Wil Myers ever step up and out of the ~115 wRC+ range? 2:46 Dan Szymborski: Wil Myers is a good player. He is what he is at this point, I think. 2:46 Matt: Why is everyone talking about the Cubs’ window? Who cares?! And, to that point – which window are they even talking about? I’ve seen their new offices, and its covered in windows. Facing all directions. 2:46 Dan Szymborski: If you worked in an office and it was 95 degrees outside, you’d damn well care about the windows! 2:47 Matt: @FakePeterGammons broke the Adam Eaton trade, and none of the “real” writers would acknowledge him. 2:47 CM: Think the O’s would be willing to move Gausman at this point? He’s the kind of guy that I’d like to see the Cubs target. 2:47 Dan Szymborski: I think that trading Gausman doesn’t make sense for the O’s 2:47 vil b.: Galileo is such a cool name for a cat! We have a cat named Jumpy (formerly feral) and she’s skittish all of the time. Wanna trade cats, lol? 2:47 Dan Szymborski: I’m very attached to Galileo after 18 1/2 years! 2:48 Dan Szymborski: You take any of my cats and I’ll hunt you down and wont’ even give you an hour head start, most dangerous game-style. 2:48 Julio Teheran: Over 7 seasons, my career ERA is 3.54 and my WHIP is 1.18. Explain how I am terrible. 2:48 Dan Szymborski: I didn’t say you were terrible. 2:48 Dan Szymborski: Less valuable than Quintana is not terrible. 2:48 Dan Szymborski: There’s no binary in which evaluation is either Jose Quintana or terrible. 2:50 Murse Wigwam: In your opinion, what is the greatest album of the 1970s? 2:51 Dan Szymborski: Blood on the Tracks (non-classical category) 2:51 Johnny Cueto: Any chance the Astros get desperate and go for me now that Quintana is not available? 2:52 Dan Szymborski: No, why would they be any more desperate than yesterday? 2:52 CamdenWarehouse: 27 1 out innings would have a very bad content/commercial ratio 2:52 Dan Szymborski: They’d just use J.J. Hardy at-bats as commercial breaks. 2:52 Local Rays Fan: Maddon’s Fun Guy routine wears out at a rate directly correlated to a team’s failure to win championships. 2:52 Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: Despite all preseason expectation, Rays don’t move Cobb this year, do they? He, Archer, and Faria are the only dependable starters right now, while Jose De Leon is injured and Honeywell isn’t ready. 2:53 Dan Szymborski: THey could. And I think you’re over-negative about Honeywell. 2:53 Duane Reede: When you use a laptop, do you set the laptop on top of your lap, or on a tabletop/desk? 2:53 Dan Szymborski: Usually on my legs. 2:53 Chaps: Lunhow’s previously mentioned that he jumped the gun with the early-ish Kazmir trade in 2015 since Price became available a bit later. Do you think that miscalculation played a part in why they didn’t get Quintana? 2:53 Dan Szymborski: No, because I don’t consider it a miscalculation. 2:53 Dan Szymborski: Why are you all so keen on moving Quintana to the Astros? Again, they’re the playoff team that least needs him. 2:54 Dan Szymborski: The only way he really becomes a priority add for the Astros (assuming no trade to Cubs) is if they have reason to believe that their various injured starters won’t be around in October. 2:54 Big League Choo: Any chance if Ms stumble out of 2nd half gate that JeDi starts to sell beyond lesser pieces (i.e Valencia, Dyson, etc.)? I realize they don’t have much but would Cruz get you anything? 2:54 Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure the Mariners are there. 2:54 Dan: Better Disney song: One Jump Ahead from Aladdin or Circle of Life from the Lion King 2:54 Dan Szymborski: One Jump Ahead 2:54 Collin: League using real life salaries. 2:55 Dan Szymborski: Yes, MLB has to pay players in real salaries. Loria tried to pay players in fictional currencies, but the CBA didn’t allow it. 2:55 RussellBrand’s[REDACTED]: Does Carlos Gonzalez bounce back in the 2nd half? What is his trade value right now? 2:55 Dan Szymborski: A little bit, zero. 2:55 CamdenWarehouse: Glenn Healey http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=32199 2:55 Dan Szymborski: Oh, lol, I didn’t understand your question. 2:56 Dan Szymborski: I’m still looking at this sort of data and seeing what predictive value it adds to my normal fuzzy clustering folderol 2:56 Bo Bichette: Fangraphs pre-season grade on my hit tool is 20/40. This ceiling has been shattered, right? 2:56 Dan Szymborski: That’s why pencils have erasers 2:56 Dan Szymborski: You’ll make a real mess on the monitor otherwise 2:56 TKDC: What do you have against Correlle Prime? 2:56 Dan Szymborski: I think I have his plates. 2:57 Dr Johnny Fever: any idea what Altherr’s ceiling looks like? 2:57 Dan Szymborski: Probably white with a fixture or two and a smoke detector 2:57 Billy Beane: Danforth, what do you think the Cubs would trade to acquire 1 Dan Szymborski? I feel like they would ask for 2 buckets of balls, but settle for one. Thoughts? 2:57 Dan Szymborski: How much of my contract are they picking up? 2:57 @marklxndr: fill in the blank with an mlb franchise: “arugula is the ____ of greens” 2:58 Dan Szymborski: Earl Weaver Orioles 2:58 TKDC: Pujols has 604 home runs. How many does he retire with? 2:58 Dan Szymborski: 660? 2:58 Dan Szymborski: That’s not a projection, we gotta move quickly 2:58 Babe Lincoln: How does the White Sox’s haul for Q compare to what they were (reportedly) offered over the winter? 2:58 Babe Lincoln: How does the White Sox’s haul for Q compare to what they were (reportedly) demanding over the winter? 2:58 Dan Szymborski: I expect around what they would have gotten if they had closed a deal. 2:58 Dan Szymborski: And less than reported demands. 2:58 me: could some of Quintana’s inflated ERA this year possibly be helped by the fact that the Cubs have better defense and better catchers? 2:59 Dan Szymborski: Well, it would help, but that would be part of their vlaue, not Quintana’s 2:59 Billy Beane: Ken Rosenthal should work for fangraphs. He’s not a fit, and I know YOU don’t technically work here either, but he’s among the top writers in baseball and this is among the top sites. 2:59 Rob: Will D. Robertson get the White Sox a top 100 prospect, assuming they eat some salary in the deal? 2:59 Dan Szymborski: A 2:59 Anon: Which team will overpay most for a reliever this year? Or does that not happen as much now that most/all the crappy GMs are gone? 2:59 Dan Szymborski: Nats. And they may not be wrong to. 2:59 Nate: Which current contender do you think is headed for the biggest decline next year? 2:59 Dan Szymborski: KC 2:59 Jack: No guarantees with prospects, but Rick Hahn has handled this rebuild pretty well so far, right? 2:59 Dan Szymborski: Solid B+ 3:00 Dan Szymborski: Trades made good, but need to be more. 3:00 John S: Are the Phillies in the midst of the worst rebuild of all time? Do they deserve this? I’m thinking maybe. 3:00 Dan Szymborski: I wouldn’t say worst, but I think they — and ownership may have part to do with it — felt they were closer than they actually were after 2016. 3:00 Dan Szymborski: That Pythag overperformance I suspect was bad for the Phillies long term. 3:00 Mike: Dan, is a hot dog actually a hamburger? Meat inside a bun, mostly the same toppings, both originated in Germany … 3:00 Dan Szymborski: A hamburger isn’t a form description. 3:01 CamdenWarehouse: I need to stop hearing about trade rumors for Gray and wondering why the Rockies would trade him… 3:01 Travis: Still feel the Braves should trade Freeman? What kind of return would they get in your eyes? 3:01 Dan Szymborski: I still think they should. They’d get a huge one, I think. 3:01 Dan Szymborski: They’re not. 3:01 Babe Lincoln: Surprising that everyone the White Sox got is so far from MLB? Just a lot more risk that way. 3:02 Dan Szymborski: MLB teams are the best places to get baseball players. The NBA doesn’t offer that many and I never see them at Meijer. 3:02 Jack Zduriencik: Did the Mariners fire me because my name is too hard to spell? 3:02 Dan Szymborski: heh 3:02 Billy Beane: So is it S?ymborski or S?ymborski? Why have you been lying to us with your unaccented z? 3:02 Dan Szymborski: I said I’m not doing that. 3:02 ledwards: it feels like the entire trade deadline consists of fans concocting dumb trade scenarios, journalist regurgitating rumors, and teams refusing to “pay the price” until of course they do… this is not a question. Also, I don’t really think you’re bad at stats until you insult my team which you haven’t… yet… 3:02 Dan Szymborski: That’s the fun of the deadline! 3:02 CamdenWarehouse: vilnius, the Orioles ownership and management is delusional. They think they have a playoff team this year and next. 3:02 Ronald Acuna: When the Braves sign Nick Markakis to a six year deal for $120 million, I will be blocked. Could they trade me and a pitching spec or two for Sonny Gray? 3:02 Dan Szymborski: heh 3:03 Jimbob: What would the Mets get say from the Astros for deGrom? 3:03 Dan Szymborski: A fairly similar package to Quintana. 3:03 Dan Szymborski: *If* the Astros were itnerested 3:03 Dan Szymborski: That’s a theoretical thing, not that they would definitely do this. 3:03 RotoLando: Do The Cubs need to coax Jonny Gomes out of retirement? 3:04 Dan Szymborski: He’s great at parades. The ratio of his actual Royals contribution to his speaking time at the celebrations was incredibly low. 3:04 Moltar: My favorite squadron, the Ny Mets, are not very good right now. Are they closer to a full rebuild or a world series? And if it’s the former, should they try to be aggressive at the trade deadline? 3:04 Dan Szymborski: Not sure about full reubild. Let’s call it an aggressive retool. 3:04 Dan Szymborski: Start with the ownership/manager. 3:05 Anon: I thought the major league team payed player salaries for their affiliates regardless of who owns the team. 3:05 Dan Szymborski: Yes, did I word my answer weird? 3:06 Dan Szymborski: Major League teams pay minor league players, but the relationships vary depending on the franchise. 3:06 Dan Szymborski: And it’s more than pay, there’s nutrition, etc. 3:06 Dan Szymborski: Sorry, it’s what I get for trying to answer as many questions. 3:07 Dan Szymborski: There are a lot of odd situations when the teams aren’t owned by same party. 3:07 Dan Szymborski: Like the Orioles lost Rochester in large part because ROchester wanted the O’s to sign more AAA veteran types and the O’s didn’t want to pay that 3:07 Tim Tebow’s Thunder Thighs: Now that Jordan’s replaced Jeb in Jeter’s group, can we complete the Triple J by bringing in Bo Jackson? That way we have all three major sports covered (no, hockey doesn’t count). When Jackson’s hip gives out we can call in Tebow off the bench. 3:07 Dan Szymborski: The whole Marlins sale sounds like a Netflix show. 3:08 Anon: Nice Roger Ravbit reference. I named my rabbit Roger when i was a kid. He died. 3:08 Dan Szymborski: Well, he’d be a very old rabbit now. 3:08 Dan Szymborski: I assume, I don’t actually know how long rabbits live. 3:08 Dan Szymborski: In my house, not so long. Galileo would get along with a rabbit, I think, but Pandora or Mercutio would gut the rabbit. 3:08 Matt: Isn’t growing awful mustaches the *only* reason to grow one? 3:09 Dan Szymborski: Jay Jaffe’s mustache is very impressive. 3:09 Dan Szymborski: My very nice and understanding companion at the Staten Island event last year said she was very impressed with it. 3:09 Dan Szymborski: And she knows Jonah Keri’s name now! She was very excited when she heard his name on NPR. 3:10 Aaron Judge: Do I break Big Mac’s rookie record? 3:10 Dan Szymborski: I think it will be very close. 3:10 Dan Szymborski: Let’s just say yes. Judge is Love. 3:10 Anon: How long does it take for your computer to spit out zips projections for every player? 3:11 Dan Szymborski: It’s about 45 seconds a player on an i7-3930k. 3:11 Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: Should the Astros be looking to start a deal with Bregman after his churlish tirade against a fan on Twitter? 3:11 Dan Szymborski: That would be s illy 3:11 Jerry Dipoto: The trade deadline is creeping up on me…what should i do? 3:11 Dan Szymborski: OMG THE CALL IS COMING FROM INSIDE YOUR HOUSE GET OUT NOW 3:11 Tad Ghostal: Are you getting enough oxygen? 3:12 Dan Szymborski: I think so. I have the lung capacity of a god for some reason. 3:12 CamdenWarehouse: You’re no Quintana, Dan. You must suck 3:12 Dan Szymborski: I totally suck anyway, even in an evaluation system that isn’t a binary, Quintana-relative structure 3:12 Gub Gub: Would you name your first child Szymba, and hold him high above your cats while Elton John music plays in the background? 3:12 Dan Szymborski: No 3:13 Dan Szymborski: ANDRONICUS 3:13 Johnny Appleseed : Yelich heating up heading into the ASB. Think he keeps it rolling? 3:13 Dan Szymborski: Yes 3:13 Dan Szymborski: OK, we are after 3, time for me to disappear into the wilderness. 3:13 Dan Szymborski: Thanks for coming, everyone! As a reminder, you can find my work at ESPN.com, chats and projections at Fangraphs, and DSzymborski on Twitter. 3:14 Not Gil: What was more epic, the tale of Gilgamesh, or Gil Meche? 3:14 Dan Szymborski: Royals didn’t sign Enkidu too.