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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric forefather Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game.

How are they calculated? Haphazardly, is how. An explanation of the components and formulae which produce these NERD scores is available here. All objections to the numbers here are probably justified, on account of how this entire endeavor is absurd.

Most Highly Rated Game
Cincinnati at Cleveland | 18:10 ET
Bonilla (18.1 IP, 116 xFIP-) vs. Bauer (44.2 IP, 81 xFIP-)
By each of those three variables that inform run-prevention beyond the three included in expected FIP, Bauer has fared almost as poorly as possible. Among qualified pitchers, he’s conceded nearly the most home runs per fly ball. He’s allowed nearly the most hits per ball in play. He’s stranded nearly the fewest runners who’ve reached base against him. To observe Trevor Bauer is to observe a plaything of the arbitrary. It is to observe… ourselves!

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Cleveland Radio.

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Episode 743
Exit velocity is an asset for hitters, all things being equal. That said, some of the very best hitters in baseball (including Mike Trout, for example) have recorded rather pedestrian batted-ball speeds. Managing editor Dave Cameron addresses the diminishing returns of exit velocity. He also discusses Chris Davis and Khris Davis and explains why only one of them was a prospect. Also: the Brewers and Twins were among 2016’s worst clubs. Now? They’re both division leaders. “How and why and how?” is what the host asks, in that careful order.

A reminder: FanGraphs’ Ad Free Membership exists. Click here to learn more about it and share some of your disposable income with FanGraphs.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 43 min play time.)

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric forefather Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game.

How are they calculated? Haphazardly, is how. An explanation of the components and formulae which produce these NERD scores is available here. All objections to the numbers here are probably justified, on account of how this entire endeavor is absurd.

Most Highly Rated Game
Cleveland at Cincinnati | 19:10 ET
Carrasco (52.0 IP, 71 xFIP-) vs. Garrett (40.0 IP, 110 xFIP-)
Rookie Amir Garrett isn’t the reason this game has received today’s highest rating according to the author’s haphazardly constructed algorithm. A combination of Cleveland starter Carlos Carrasco and a surprisingly strong Reds club — one which has produced the league’s most defensive runs, for example — is largely responsible for that. A recent exploit of Garrett’s deserves attention, however, and this isn’t the least reasonable place to supply that attention.

At the beginning of May, Garrett was demoted briefly to Triple-A. While there, he made a single appearance, just two innings against White Sox affiliate Charlotte. He faced six total batters over those two innings. What the video here documents is the last pitch of all six plate appearances.

What did Amir Garrett do? Struck out everyone he faced, is what. Now, his deed has been recorded here — if not for posterity, then at least for 20 minutes or an hour.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Cleveland Radio.

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Episode 742
Lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen is the guest on this edition of the pod. In this episode, recorded on the eve of his trip to the ACC tournament, he discusses a number of top collegiate prospects for the approaching amateur draft — top prospects, for example, like Louisville two-way star Brendan McKay. He also examines a couple former first-rounders — Detroit right-hander Beau Burrows and Pittsburgh shortstop Cole Tucker — who’ve begun to translate their tools into on-field success.

A reminder: FanGraphs’ Ad Free Membership exists. Click here to learn more about it and share some of your disposable income with FanGraphs.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 1 hr 6 min play time.)

Read the rest of this entry »

Podcast: Play in new window | Download

Subscribe: RSS

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric forefather Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game.

How are they calculated? Haphazardly, is how. An explanation of the components and formulae which produce these NERD scores is available here. All objections to the numbers here are probably justified, on account of how this entire endeavor is absurd.

Most Highly Rated Game
Kansas City at New York AL | 19:05 ET
Vargas (48.2 IP, 95 xFIP-) vs. Pineda (47.1 IP, 66 xFIP-)
Michael Pineda continues to possess an arm constructed of electricity or something like electricity. Consider: he’s recorded the seventh-highest fastball velocity among the league’s 94 qualified pitchers and fifth-best swinging-strike rate among that same population. What else he’s done, though, is walk hardly anyone. Does he concede home runs with surprising frequency for a pitcher who otherwise exhibits signs of good command? Yes. That’s how the world is, though. Let’s not belabor it.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Kansas City Radio.

Read the rest of this entry »

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric forefather Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game.

How are they calculated? Haphazardly, is how. An explanation of the components and formulae which produce these NERD scores is available here. All objections to the numbers here are probably justified, on account of how this entire endeavor is absurd.

Most Highly Rated Game
Arizona at San Diego | 16:40 ET
Godley (18.2 IP, 72 xFIP-) vs. Richard (53.2 IP, 85 xFIP-)
If one takes for granted that the ideal outcome for a batter is a fly ball — and there are a number of hitters (Josh Donaldson, J.D. Martinez, et al) who do regard that as the ideal outcome — then one might regard Zack Godley as the pitcher most well suited to preventing that outcome. Consider: nearly 40% of plate appearances against him so far this season have ended either in a strikeout or a walk. Of the batted balls Godley has conceded, more than 70% have been grounders. “If a batter cannot elevate,” wrote Isaac Newton in lesser-known text, “then he’s incapable of consequently celebrating.” This is the principle on which Godley has based his approach.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Arizona or San Diego Radio.

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric forefather Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game.

How are they calculated? Haphazardly, is how. An explanation of the components and formulae which produce these NERD scores is available here. All objections to the numbers here are probably justified, on account of how this entire endeavor is absurd.

Most Highly Rated Game
Arizona at San Diego | 22:10 ET
Ray (45.1 IP, 86 xFIP-) vs. Perdomo (34.1 IP, 70 xFIP-)
Among starters who’ve recorded 30 or more innings so far this season, San Diego’s Luis Perdomo has produced the very best ground-ball rate (70.5%). What else he’s done — and what represents a departure from his rookie campaign last year — is also to miss bats at an above-average rate. Pairing those two results with such frequency is rare. By way of illustrating how rare, please consider the following handcrafted chart, which identifies not only Perdomo but also other who’ve recorded a similar combo pacakge of outcomes so far this season.

Dallas Keuchel, Lance McCullers, and Alex Wood are objectively effective pitchers. Perdomo’s teammate Trevor Cahill hasn’t previously been so effective, but is now effective. Shall one conclude that Perdomo is likely to be effective, as well? One shall, probably.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Arizona or San Diego Radio.

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric forefather Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game.

How are they calculated? Haphazardly, is how. An explanation of the components and formulae which produce these NERD scores is available here. All objections to the numbers here are probably justified, on account of how this entire endeavor is absurd.

Most Highly Rated Game
New York AL at Tampa Bay | 19:10 ET
Severino (42.0 IP, 68 xFIP-) vs. Ramirez (24.2 IP, 82 xFIP-)
Typically, when a pitcher records an ERA that’s a whole run higher than his xFIP, the result is a bad ERA. Luis Severino’s fielding-independent numbers have been so good this year, however, that despite allowing an extra run every nine innings, he’s still been better than average overall. Among his main virtues is arm speed: Severino has produced the highest average fastball velocity among qualifiers by nearly a full mph. Among not his virtues is allowing home runs. As for prudence, justice, etc., the author lacks sufficient knowledge of the situation to comment.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Tampa Bay Radio.

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Fringe Five Scoreboards: 2016 | 2015 | 2014 | 2013.

The Fringe Five is a weekly regular-season exercise, introduced a few years ago by the present author, wherein that same author utilizes regressed stats, scouting reports, and also his own fallible intuition to identify and/or continue monitoring the most compelling fringe prospects in all of baseball.

Central to the exercise, of course, is a definition of the word fringe, a term which possesses different connotations for different sorts of readers. For the purposes of the column this year, a fringe prospect (and therefore one eligible for inclusion among the Five) is any rookie-eligible player at High-A or above who (a) was omitted from the preseason prospect lists produced by Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, MLB.com, John Sickels*, and (most importantly) lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen and also who (b) is currently absent from a major-league roster. Players appearing on any updated list — such as the revised top 100 released last week by Baseball America — will also be excluded from eligibility.

*All 200 names!

In the final analysis, the basic idea is this: to recognize those prospects who are perhaps receiving less notoriety than their talents or performance might otherwise warrant.

Thairo Estrada, 2B/SS, New York AL (Profile)
I selected Estrada as Cistulli’s Guy on Eric Longenhagen’s organizational list for the Yankees. Like a number of other players who received that same distinction on other clubs, Estrada’s profile entering the season was marked by above-average contact skills and the promise of defensive value. Unlike some of those other players, however, Estrada also featured youth relative to level. Consider: of the 100 players who recorded more than 136 at-bats in the Florida State League last season — a list which includes top-100 sorts like Corey Ray and Amed Rosario — only Toronto prospect Richard Urena was younger.

Now at Double-A in just his age-21 season, Estrada has somehow produced even stronger numbers than last year. He’s recorded a strikeout rate of just 10.1% after posting a 13.1% mark at High-A last year. He’s also made two-thirds of his starts at shortstop after having largely moved off the position in 2015 and -16. He’s been a net positive there, according to Clay Davenport’s fielding-runs methodology.

Here’s footage of Estrada hitting one home run — specifically, in this case, during spring training:

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