Author Archive

FanGraphs Audio: Eric Thames and What Isn’t Lost in Translation

Episode 732
Managing editor Dave Cameron is the guest on this edition of the program, during which he discusses Eric Thames‘ early success and the implications of that success for the legitimacy of statistical translations from foreign leagues; provides some benchmarks for ideal launch angle and the players who are closest to those benchmarks; and identifies what’s broke with Eric Hosmer and why Eric Hosmer has little incentive to fix it.

A reminder: FanGraphs’ Ad Free Membership exists. Click here to learn more about it and share some of your disposable income with FanGraphs.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 47 min play time.)

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FanGraphs Audio: Lead Prospect Analyst Eric Longenhagen’s Fortnightly Appearance

Episode 731
Lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen is the guest on this edition of the pod. In this episode, he reflects wistfully on the successes and also failures of 2011 draft, discusses some velocity spikes among Dodgers prospects, and briefly previews a trip to a Scott Boras-sponsored showcase in California.

A reminder: FanGraphs’ Ad Free Membership exists. Click here to learn more about it and share some of your disposable income with FanGraphs.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 49 min play time.)

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The Top College Players by (Maybe) Predictive Stats

Week: 1 / 2 / 3 / 4 / 7.

Over the last couple years, the author has published a periodic statistical report designed to serve as a mostly responsible shorthand for people who, like the author, possess more enthusiasm for collegiate baseball than expert knowledge of it. Those reports integrated concepts central to much of the analysis found at FanGraphs — regarding sample size and regression, for example — to provide something not unlike a “true talent” leaderboard for hitters and pitchers in select conferences.

What follows represents the most current such report for the 2017 college campaign.

As in the original edition of this same thing, what I’ve done here is to utilize principles introduced by Chris Mitchell on forecasting future major-league performance with minor-league stats.

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Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 4/12/17

2:04
Jimmy Carter: Is Carter Capps a top 10 NL closer by the end of this season?

2:04
Dan Szymborski: OH yeah, hello.

2:05
Dan Szymborski: Could be, but I don’t want to commit yet given that he’s still doing rehab.

2:05
Dan Szymborski: And whether they call his shot put windup under new guidelines, I’m not sure of

2:05
Noah: Thoughts on Eric Thames so far? I know your system had him projected for a fairly significant season

2:05
Dan Szymborski: If he destroys the NL, Steamer gets the win over ZiPS – STeamer was more optimistic.

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FanGraphs Audio: You Shall Know Our Fastball Velocity

Episode 730
Managing editor Dave Cameron is the guest on this edition of the program, during which he discusses the beguiling matter of velocity and the measurement of velocity in baseball after the League recently completed their transition from the PITCHf/x to Statcast pitch-tracking systems.

A reminder: FanGraphs’ Ad Free Membership exists. Click here to learn more about it and share some of your disposable income with FanGraphs.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 35 min play time.)

Read the rest of this entry »


The Top College Players by (Maybe) Predictive Stats

Week: 1 / 2 / 3 / 4.

Over the last couple years, the author has published a periodic statistical report designed to serve as a mostly responsible shorthand for people who, like the author, possess more enthusiasm for collegiate baseball than expert knowledge of it. Those reports integrated concepts central to much of the analysis found at FanGraphs — regarding sample size and regression, for example — to provide something not unlike a “true talent” leaderboard for hitters and pitchers in select conferences.

What follows represents the most current such report for the 2017 college campaign.

As in the original edition of this same thing, what I’ve done here is to utilize principles introduced by Chris Mitchell on forecasting future major-league performance with minor-league stats.

Read the rest of this entry »


FanGraphs Audio: A Small, Yet Decidedly Adequate, Sample of Dave Cameron

Episode 729
Managing editor Dave Cameron is the guest on this edition of the program, during which he discusses not only the opportunities available to, but also the challenges that face, players who possess competence both as hitters and pitchers; examines one of the few metrics that becomes reliable in a sample size of one; and explains the strange composition of the Padres’ roster.

A reminder: FanGraphs’ Ad Free Membership exists. Click here to learn more about it and share some of your disposable income with FanGraphs.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 44 min play time.)

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Cleveland’s Next Anonymous and Great Third Baseman

After having produced one of the best overall lines on Cleveland’s World Series club and subsequently received a $26 million extension, Jose Ramirez enters the 2017 campaign as a core member of the Indians’ major-league club. For as obvious as that sounds, it represents a departure from his status at this same point last year.

Known as a useful defender with good contact skills, Ramirez also began the 2016 campaign having produced just a 78 wRC+ over his first 635 major-league plate appearances (a number of which he’d compiled while holding Francisco Lindor‘s place before the latter’s promotion). Nevertheless, he exhibited sufficient promise and present-day skill to make the Opening Day club and was used in a multi-positional role over the first four months of Cleveland’s season, recording starts at second base, third base, shortstop, and left field — the majority coming at that last position. When teammate Juan Uribe’s season ended at the end of July, Ramirez assumed third-base duties on a regular basis. Supplementing his contact ability with unprecedented power, Ramirez ultimately produced a nearly five-win season.

Officially speaking, Ramirez is now Cleveland’s starting third baseman. He also retains positional flexibility, however. So when it became clear that Jason Kipnis would have to begin the season on the disabled list, Ramirez represented an obvious choice to slide across the infield. The less obvious choice was who should fill the spot vacated by Ramirez.

One of the solutions to that quandary is utilityman Michael Martinez. Martinez has the benefit and drawback, from Cleveland’s perspective, of being a known commodity. One knows that Martinez can field almost any position. One also knows, however, that he can’t hit sufficiently to support any of them. He’s the Platonic ideal of a replacement player.

The other solution is Yandy Diaz. Signed out of Cuba in 2013 for $300,000, Diaz has been a fixture within the author’s Fringe Five columm, appearing among the top-10 finishers on the arbitrarily calculated leaderboards for that column both in 2015 and 2016. In many ways, Diaz is a clone of Ramirez.

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FanGraphs Audio: Chris Carter Is a Cardboard Box

Episode 728
Managing editor Dave Cameron is the guest on this edition of the pod, during which he discusses the unconscionably thorough positional power rankings; explains why contract extensions for certain types of players (such as Jose Ramirez) seem not to have benefited from inflation for half a decade; and suffers through a tortured metaphor in which Chris Carter is likened to a Finnish cardboard box.

A reminder: FanGraphs’ Ad Free Membership exists. Click here to learn more about it and share some of your disposable income with FanGraphs.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 34 min play time.)

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Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 3/29/17

2:06
Dan Szymborski: Hey guys!

2:06
CamdenWarehouse: Do you see Stephenson in the Reds rotation at some point this season?

2:06
Dan Szymborski: If his command is OK, I think he’ll get some time considering where the Reds are. Maybe even in if it isn’t.

2:06
mtsw: Does the fact that the arbitration system rewards counting stats for hitters but wins/saves for pitchers create a systemic bias towards teams with pitcher-friendly parks? Hitter counting stats are park dependent but wins/saves aren’t really.

2:06
Dan Szymborski: Never really thought of it, but I don’t think enough players go to arb for that to be a big deal.

2:07
Dan Szymborski: And I believe that they’re free to make an argument wiht a player to this effect.

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