Episode 669
Dave Cameron is the managing editor of FanGraphs. During this edition of FanGraphs Audio, he examines yet another trade involving the Red Sox and yet another trade in which Dave Dombrowski has exchanged a young player for a less young player; reflects on the nature of (the recently dismissed) Terry Ryan’s long tenure(s) as general manager in Minnesota; and rains invective on the host.

This episode of the program either is or isn’t sponsored by SeatGeek, which site removes both the work and also the hassle from the process of shopping for tickets.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 50 min play time.)

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Episode 668
Lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen is the guest on this edition of the pod, during which he discusses his observations — regarding St. Louis prospect Alex Reyes, for example — from the Futures Games; considers the projections versus scouting reports on Andrew Benintendi and Alex Bregman; plus also chronicles his transcontinental scouting trip.

This episode of the program either is or isn’t sponsored by SeatGeek, which site removes both the work and also the hassle from the process of shopping for tickets.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 1 hr 2 min play time.)

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric nobleman Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Miami at Philadelphia | 19:05 ET
Fernandez (107.1 IP, 57 xFIP-) vs. Nola (96.0 IP, 72 xFIP-)
If Benjamin Franklin didn’t say it expressly, then he certainly thought it once or twice: the key in this life is to budget one’s resources properly — not just money, but also one’s energy and one’s time. It’s imperative, this practice, to keeping the mind sana and the body sano.

Today, the author utilized almost the entirety of his alloted time for this post to composing the unwieldy description of NERD’s postseason adjustment, which appears below. As a result, there’s no discussion of today’s most highly rated game.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Philadelphia Radio.

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric nobleman Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Baltimore at Tampa Bay | 13:10 ET
Bundy (38.0 IP, 116 xFIP-) vs. Odorizzi (104.2 IP, 101 xFIP-)
A lot hasn’t gone particularly well for Dylan Bundy over the last few years. After having been selected fourth overall in 2011 out of an Oklahoma high school and then promptly dispatching all manner of hitter up to Double-A as just a 19-year-old, Bundy experienced arm trouble which required surgery. Since then, he’s failed to reproduce the ecstatic promise of his first year — failed until this most recent month, that is. One wouldn’t necessarily notice it even by examining Bundy’s full-season numbers, but he’s been excellent recently.

Regard:

That’s Bundy over the most recent month (on bottom) compared to all of Bundy from before that. The difference is stark. More strikeouts, fewer walks, more ground balls — and he’s throwing harder. Which, perhaps that last variable is responsible for the first three: greater arm speed tends to have positive consequences beyond just a better fastball.

Of course, all that’s been in relief because all of Bundy’s career appearances have been in relief. This is his first start as a major leaguer. The point, though: Bundy appears more well prepared to handle a starting role now than the last couple years would lead one to suppose.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Tampa Bay Radio or Baltimore Television.

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric nobleman Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game(s)
Cleveland (Bauer) at Minnesota (Duffey) | 19:10 ET
Los Angeles NL (McCarthy) at Arizona (Bradley) | 20:10 ET
These two games receive the same precise score — to the 100th of a point — per the author’s haphazardly constructed algorithm. In the case both of Cleveland and Los Angeles, one finds talented clubs which feature greater than a 50% chance of qualifying for the divisional series. In the case of Minnesota and Arizona, one finds… not that. But then does find, on the other hand, at least a small collection of promising youth. Consider: the Diamondbacks feature the lowest average batters age (weighted by plate appearances) in the majors; the Twins, the fourth-lowest. Jake Lamb (3.2 WAR), Jean Segura (2.0 WAR), Robbie Grossman (1.2 WAR), Miguel Sano (1.0 WAR) are all in the midst of their age-26 season or something less than that, and all have recorded at least a win this year. Observing those two clubs, one is observes the future of baseball. But not literally. And maybe not even that figuratively. Not all of these brief entries are literary gold.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Cleveland Radio, Los Angeles NL Television.

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric nobleman Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Boston at New York AL | 19:05 ET
Wright (114.0 IP, 103 xFIP-) vs. Pineda (95.1 IP, 77 xFIP-)
Steven Wright and Michael Pineda are the same and also different. Like, for example, they possess probably 95% or 98% or whatever of the same genetic material. Because humans possess mostly the same genetic material. So, basically the same. But also, one of them’s a giant person from the Dominican, while the other is a more traditionally sized person from Torrance. So, rather different.

Here’s another manner in which they’re the same: they’ve both produced ERA numbers so far this season that’re wildly different than what their fielding-independent marks would otherwise suggest. But here’s also how they’re different: while Wright has very much outperformed his xFIP, Pineda has underperformed it.

Regard, by way of illustration, this table, which features the top-five qualified pitchers by absolute difference between xFIP- and ERA-:

It’s very likely that the appearnce of both pitchers here is more than a product of randomness. Wright, a knuckleballer, is almost certain to outperform his fielding-independent numbers. And as for Pineda, the opposite has been a trend, as well. Enough of a trend that one ought to regard it as a reflection of his “true talent”? Sure. Not to this degree. But sure.

This, in conclusion, has represented an attempt to identify a narrative where none was readily apparent.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Boston Radio.

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The Fringe Five is a weekly regular-season exercise, introduced a few years ago by the present author, wherein that same author utilizes regressed stats, scouting reports, and also his own fallible intuition to identify and/or continue monitoring the most compelling fringe prospects in all of baseball.

Central to the exercise, of course, is a definition of the word fringe, a term which possesses different connotations for different sorts of readers. For the purposes of the column this year, a fringe prospect (and therefore one eligible for inclusion in the Five) is any rookie-eligible player at High-A or above who (a) received a future value grade of 45 or less from Dan Farnsworth during the course of his organizational lists and who (b) was omitted from the preseason prospect lists produced by Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, MLB.com’s Jonathan Mayo, and John Sickels, and also who (c) is currently absent from a major-league roster. Players appearing on a midseason list or, otherwise, selected in the first round of the current season’s amateur draft will also be excluded from eligibility.

In the final analysis, the basic idea is this: to recognize those prospects who are perhaps receiving less notoriety than their talents or performance might otherwise warrant.

Chad Green, RHP, New York AL (Profile)
Depending on one’s concerns, there are two distinct ways of viewing Chad Green’s most recent sojourn to the majors leagues. For those who would prefer the Yankees to win games and not lose them in the year 2016, it was likely a dissappointment. Green conceded five home runs in 10.1 innings, allowing eight runs total over the course of two starts. Not great, in other words. For those looking for indications of Green’s future success, however, it was mostly encouraging. Because regard: against 40 batters, Green recorded 14 strikeouts and merely two walks (rates of 35.0% and 5.0%, respectively) and an average fastball velocity of 95 mph — and, in such a small sample, those are the only numbers likely to reveal anything.

Whatever the case, Green was dispatched back to Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre, where he promptly cobbled together a dominant performance, recording an 8:0 strikeout-to-walk ratio and conceding a single hit against 25 batters over 8.0 scoreless innings on Thursday (box).

Here’s footage from one of Green’s recent major-league starts — not of him allowing home runs, but rather recording strikeouts by means of a cutter at 92 mph and four-seamer at 95.

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Episode 667
Jeff Sullivan is a senior editor at FanGraphs. He’s also the sensitive male guest on this edition of FanGraphs Audio.

This episode of the program either is or isn’t sponsored by SeatGeek, which site removes both the work and also the hassle from the process of shopping for tickets.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 1 hr 7 min play time.)

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Episode 666
Dave Cameron is the managing editor of FanGraphs. During this edition of FanGraphs Audio he examines Boston’s recent trades for Aaron Hill and Brad Ziegler, whether it’s another case of Dave Dombrowski overpaying with prospects for present help; discusses his trade-value series and the challenges of evaluating players (like Jake Lamb) whose current production deviates wildly from previously established levels; and also addresses the omission of Clayton Kershaw from the list entirely.

Also, note: the Practical Analytics portion of the program wanders accidentally into the province of Real Talk. Listeners are encouraged to skip roughly to 16:00 if they have little interest in such matters.

This episode of the program either is or isn’t sponsored by SeatGeek, which site removes both the work and also the hassle from the process of shopping for tickets.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 51 min play time.)

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Podcast: Play in new window | Download

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