Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 7/18/16

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July 18, 2016
11:58
Dan Szymborski: Szymborski has arrived, to the disappointment of all.
11:59
Section 118: Give me a % chance of both Marcus Semien and Khris Davis hitting 35 HRs this year
11:59
Dan Szymborski: So like 40% and 70%? Let’s call it 28%
11:59
Dan Szymborski: maybe that’s too high
11:59
Dan Szymborski: 30 and 60? 18%?
12:00
Chris: How worried should the Bucs be re: Polanco ?

12:00
Dan Szymborski: You mean the hammy? I wouldn’t be that worried yet.
12:00
Matt: Hey Dan. I missed you.
12:00
Dan Szymborski: There’s help for that.
12:01
Brendan C. : What should the Yankees specifically target if they were to sell?
12:01
Dan Szymborski: I don’t think sellers should run in specifically targeting things. They should focus on getting the best future return they can for their players, but you don’t need me to say that!
12:02
Matt: Let’s assume Yanks sell. Who’s going? Beltran, Chapman, Nova?
12:02
Dan Szymborski: If they’re smart, this and more. Headley, Miller, someone willing to pick up some of Ellsbury for a prospect
12:03
Neer: ETA on Bregman’s arrival in the majors with Yulieski signing w/ the Stros?
12:03
Dan Szymborski: I don’t think it has an effect
12:03
Dan: Who has a better second half Conforto or Pence?
12:03
Dan Szymborski: I’ll still go with Pence. It’s not like his game is speed and defense
12:04
Elias: Could the Indians be asking on Vogt with Gomes down?
12:04
Dan Szymborski: Ought to be in the conversation if they’re not willing to pay Lucroy price
12:04
kel varnson: LAD appear to be bringing jose de leon along slowly. Does he don the Dodger uni by the season-end? or will he be utilized as a trade asset this month?
12:04
Dan Szymborski: The Dodgers with their various pitching injuries/risks are playing it be ear. And anyway, most times these things aren’t an either/or.
12:06
kel varnson: if/when arroyo comes up, who becomes the odd man out in the san fran infield? or is he utilized as a super utility player ala javier baez/brock holt?
12:07
Dan Szymborski: I still don’t think he gets a significant role in MLB this year if he comes up at all.
12:07
Dan Szymborski: The Giants aren’t aggressive promoters, typically, and they don’t usually make too many waves with jobs.
12:08
pennypacker: concern with jesse winker’s power outage or will great american cure that?
12:08
Dan Szymborski: I do have concern.
12:09
vandalay: why are the NYM seemingly hell-bent on keeping herrera in the minors?
12:09
Dan Szymborski: Their apparent casual disinterest in Herrera has confused me long-term.
12:09
Elias: Danny Valencia – A’s 2017 1B, or dealt at the deadline?
12:09
Dan Szymborski: Dealt if they’re smart.
12:09
Dan Szymborski: The market sucks and he’ll never be playing better than this. What time is better?
12:10
Mr. Pink: Tanner Roark, is playing pretty well. I would say it’s unsustainable but he already did this in 2014. What’s his value going forward?
12:10
Dan Szymborski: I think hey’s pretty good – he wouldn’t be the first pitcher to awkwardly adjust to constantly shifting roles.
12:11
paul: what is david prices issue
12:11
Dan Szymborski: The FIP gods are cruel sometimes.
12:11
Dan Szymborski: A .332 BABIP is simply not real. That’s about where hitters moonlighting as pitchers are.
12:12
Bob: Do you view Kepler’s recent power spike as sustainable (within reason)? The kid definitely has the frame for it… Follow up: with that (maybe) power, and evolving plate discipline, what type of performance do you expect in next 2-3 years?
12:12
Dan Szymborski: I think it’s perfectly reasonable, maybe not 30 HR power, but players don’t have fluke HR totals *that* often
12:12
The Decadent Moose: So I got the call to tryout for the Cardinals’ bullpen. My fastball velo is 72-74 spiking 77. Should I compliment that with a Fosh change or should I go more esoteric with knuckle options?
12:13
Dan Szymborski: The key to the cardinal bullpen is having blackmail material on Matheny. Because I’ve eliminated any other possible plausible thread of reasoning in Matheny’s bullpen usage over the years.
12:13
San Dymborski: In your opinion, outside of Trout, who’s the most valuable player in baseball right now, considering contract and age.
12:13
Dan Szymborski: Correa
12:13
Victor: Jeff Passan wrote that TEX would part with Gallo for Moore or Odorizzi or Smyly… Surely that’s an over payment for those guys, right?
12:14
Dan Szymborski: Probably. Depends which one of those we’re talking about.
12:14
Gtrope87: What do/should the Mets do at this point? I really want them to get Valencia/Hill but I feel like they’d have to put a big dent in their farm to do so. Is it worth it?
12:14
Dan Szymborski: I think go the course. If they were tied or a game or two out of the division, I’d endorse more aggression.
12:14
Roger: If Rich Hill is out of the picture because of his blister issue, who is the best starting pitcher on the trade market?
12:14
Dan Szymborski: My cat
12:15
Dan Szymborski: I’m only half-joking. People were talking about the LUCAS HARRELL trade market this weekend. Shelby Miller’s getting some interest
12:15
TP for my Jung Ho: The Cubs and Yankees have both postured about Miller and Schwarber at different times. Assuming both are tradeable, does it take more than just Schwarber to get Miller? What else do you think it would take?
12:15
Dan Szymborski: I don’t think the Cubs do it just for Miller.
12:16
Dan Szymborski: If, say, Soler had a better season and looked to make Schwarber more expendable, maybe.
12:16
Toby: Since he started using that changeup more, Michael Fulmer has a sub-1 ERA (65.1 IP). Obviously he can’t keep up that level of run prevention, but how legit is this? Also if he ends up qualifying, could he be ROY/CY
12:16
Dan Szymborski: Not this level, but he’s very good. I think h’ll be in my top 25 for future value next February
12:16
jon: Higher fWAR after Almora or Buxton after end of 2016? end of 2017?
12:16
Dan Szymborski: I’m still going to say Buxton, but I’m getting anxious
12:16
Ben: Does Gurriel have Zips?
12:16
Dan Szymborski: Haven’t done ’em yet.
12:17
Dan Szymborski: I usually try to avoid projecting the Cuban players until someone makes me or tricks me.
12:17
Burts_beads: Do the Marlins pick up Ichiro’s option for 2017?
12:17
Dan Szymborski: If one party walks away, I think it’ll be Ichiro to retirement not Marlins to decline options
12:19
Big Tall T: Ketel Marte is chasing a lot of pitches and has a terrible BB%. Do you think he can make some significant improvements, or is this kind of player in the MLB?
12:19
Dan Szymborski: I think this is the type of player he will remain.
12:19
TKDC: By how much WAR does Mike Trout beat Carlos Correa 2017-2021?
12:19
Dan Szymborski: By some. More than ZiPS things since ZiPS is obsessed with Correa
12:20
Stephen: Steve Brault has a low 90s fastball, a good changeup and a decent slider. His AAA (SSS) strikeout rate is outrageous and his projections are good. Why shouldn’t he be starting in the pirates rotation instead of Jeff Locke and/or Chad Kuhl?
12:20
Dan Szymborski: The Pirates do tend to be conservative. Brault still doesn’t have a ton of high minors experience and he can’t get by in the majors just on stuff.
12:20
Drassel: chance to see Joey Gallo with NY Yankees ?
12:20
Dan Szymborski: At least a chance.
12:20
Josh: what are realistic contributions from Morneau?
12:21
Dan Szymborski: Meh. Which is actually pretty good for a team that has Arrrggh at DH.
12:21
Paco: Do the Dodgers really need to do anything at the deadline besides get a reliever or 2? The rotation seems strong with BMac & Ryu back & Kershaw Wood & De Leon being ready to help soon. The offense was a problem but Puig, Grandal & Kendrick have all started hitting & I don’t see them replacing AGON
12:22
Dan Szymborski: I actually dont’ think they should make big splashes unless they tighten it up in the next 10 days
12:22
Hmm: I know he’s been numero uno for awhile now, but Gurriel is 32 years old and may bust. Does he really stand in Bregman’s way?
12:22
Dan Szymborski: No.
12:22
Dan Szymborski: Let’s say that Gurriel turns out to be good. Has anytime ever had a problem “OH NOES WE HAVE TOO MANY QUALITY INFIELDER, LETS PANIC PEOPLE!”
12:23
Matt: More Yanks questions. If they move Beltran, what are the channces Aaron Judge finds himself in RF this year?
12:23
Dan Szymborski: Pretty good, I think.
12:24
Dan Szymborski: But a Beltran trade depends on the baseball people being victorious over the stupid people.
12:24
Chuncey Wiggins: Is Rich Hill’s blister going to cost the A’s a lot of prospects?
12:24
Dan Szymborski: It may, though I don’t think anyone’s going crazy over Hill
12:24
darrenasu: Hey Dan…thoughts on Cheslor Cuthbert? Not getting a ton of buzz…but a 23 year-old with a .748 OPS isn’t too shabby. Fantasy value next year? Thanks,
12:24
Dan Szymborski: Not sure about fantasy
12:24
Sean: Dan, I’m already burned out on Overwatch. Please help.
12:24
Dan Szymborski: Play less? Game burnout is the sign of improper gaming!
12:25
Hmm: Over/under Corey Seager getting 70 xbh?
12:25
Dan Szymborski: I’d take the over
12:25
Bob Dobolina: Looks like ZiPS has Harper and Machado slated for nearly identical outputs the rest of the way, with the exception of Harper drawing more BBs. Think that’s how it shakes out? Or does Harper turn back into 2015 Harper at some point in the second half?
12:25
Dan Szymborski: So greedy. You act like hitting like Machado is bad
12:25
mtsw: Is there a AAAA-level or 6th starter type the Orioles could acquire? They prob don’t have the assets to get an actually decent starter, but they seem to be in a place where even getting another guy on the Vance Worley-tier would improve their rotation.
12:26
Dan Szymborski: Camden happens to be a tough place for one of those AAAA types. I’m not sure hte problem is that the O’s need another AAAA type, I think they have those and they just kinda suck in Camden.
12:26
Justin: Kershaw (68.9%) and Syndergard (69%) have nearly identical strike rates but Kershaw (2%) has walked batters at less than half the rate of Syndergard (4.3%). Is there anything to this or can we expect this to regress?
12:26
Dan Szymborski: It’s Kershaw.
12:26
Hmm: Could Joey Votto realistically be traded if obtaining team takes on most of his contract?
12:27
Dan Szymborski: He could. I think he could be traded with less than most of his contract, but I don’t think the Reds are interested.
12:27
paul: thoughts on david price getting roughed up by the yankees last night?
12:27
Dan Szymborski: David Price did not pitch a great game.
12:27
Hakuna Machado: Thoughts on Zimmerman for the Tigers ROS once back from the neck issue?
12:28
Dan Szymborski: Think he’ll be a high #2 guy
12:28
Justin: Tommy Pham has a career +130 RC in 250+ PA’s – should STL play him everyday and see what they have?
12:28
Dan Szymborski: If not every day, at least more than they do now
12:30
Bob: What’s the BABIP advantage for lefty pitchers vs righty pitchers due to the additional 0.1 to 0.2 seconds it takes for RHB to leave the batters box?
12:30
Dan Szymborski: It’s typically around 5 points of BABIP
12:30
mike sixel: I’d ask a Twins’ question, but why bother at this point…..so I’ll just say thinks for all the interesting reading you’ve provided over the years.
12:31
Dan Szymborski: I like the questions that aren’t question so I don’t need to do anything.
12:31
Dan Szymborski: I’m a lazy man.
12:31
darrenasu: Thoughts on Elvis Andrus this year? On pace to have best obp since 2012. Any change in his approach to suggest he can keep this up. He is only 27 years old. Thanks, dw
12:32
Dan Szymborski: I personally have not noticed any approach changes.
12:32
Matt: Is Riley Pint the kind of draftee that will spend little time in the minors, or is he a bit away from The Show?
12:32
Dan Szymborski: Bit away
12:32
TKDC: WIll Ian Desmond be vindicated for turning down the Nats extension offer this offseason?
12:32
Dan Szymborski: It’s possible. He’s had a terrific season
12:33
Would you rather: Speculatively own Bregman or Gurriel for the remainder of this season?
12:33
Dan Szymborski: Bregman
12:33
Matt: The Cubs trade for King Kong, and the Rangers for The Hulk. Who wins the world series now?
12:34
Dan Szymborski: Probably Rangers. King Kong was defeated by 1930s planes after all
12:34
Nick: This offseason do you see a Chris Sale trade? Cubs or Red Sox seem to be a good fit with all of their position player prospects that are up/close.
12:34
Dan Szymborski: I do not
12:34
Arnold Sillywagger: Would the Indians trade Zimmer or Frazier for Lucroy? And should they?
12:34
Dan Szymborski: I don’t think they will. I’d be no-inclined, but I’m not sure really
12:34
Pete: Now that we have easy access to ZiPS and other projection systems, is there any reason for fans to worry much about “stabilization points” when assessing how much of a player’s early season performance is “real”? Isn’t that all captured by the updated projections?
12:34
Dan Szymborski: Not really because the problem is stabilization points aren’t really a line
12:35
Gypsy Father: How fun is Matt Shoemaker? Can he keep putting up really good K/BB numbers without having any stuff?
12:35
Dan Szymborski: He did before
12:35
Watty: Which rhyming name matchup do you prefer? The pitching matchup earlier this year of Smyly vs. MIley or the batter/pitcher matchup over the weekend of Bauer vs. Mauer?
12:35
Dan Szymborski: I like Bauer and Mauer
12:35
Mike: Do you think Conforto will start at least against righties or will Cespedes preference of playing LF hurt his playing time?
12:35
Dan Szymborski: Cespedes’s playing time will not be reduced.
12:35
Bernie: Any chance Rangers do Gallo for Miller/Beltran?
12:35
Dan Szymborski: Some
12:35
Bob: What’s causing Correa’s ZIPS projected WAR to explode in the next five years?
12:36
Dan Szymborski: He’s a very young, very talented player near an age where players like him can explode
12:36
Dan Szymborski: Anything more, dissecting the exact reason in sets of hundreds of algorithms is a lengthy process.
12:36
SMOD ’16: Is heyward more likely to have a wRC+ under 100 or over 120 next year?
12:36
Dan Szymborski: Under 100
12:36
mtsw: If you gave a player a 100th percentile ability in everything else involved in pitching, how soft could he reasonably throw and still stick in the majors?
12:37
Dan Szymborski: 60? I’m assuming he has 100th percentile knuckleball skills
12:38
GSon: Is the AL ROY coming down to two guys, Michael Fulmer of the Tigers and Tyler Naquin of the Indians? Would you support either guy or go “off the board”?
12:38
Dan Szymborski: I’d probably go Fulmer, but it’s really close for me.
12:39
Dan Szymborski: Though I wouldn’t get the chance – I’m in Cincy BBWAA chapter.
12:39
Joe: Is there anyone available that could legitimately improve the O’s rotation that they could actually get?
12:39
Dan Szymborski: Honestly, I don’t think the lines of Use to O’s, O’s Can Get, and O’s Should Get have any intersecting points.
12:39
Matt: Ivan Nova is the best pitcher on the trade market. Boom.
12:40
Dan Szymborski: See, my cat doens’t look so bad
12:40
Dan Szymborski: Well, at least Galileo. He’s robust, but at 17, you’re not going to have to feed him for a decade afterwards.
12:42
Kevin: Do you see a team trading for Melvin Upton Jr as well as taking the entire contract? Or will the Padres have to eat a certain % no matter what if he does move?
12:42
Dan Szymborski: I can’t see anyone taking the entire contract
12:42
mtsw: The Twins apparently just canned Terry Ryan. Thoughts?
12:42
Dan Szymborski: It’s about time. he did a lot of good in Minnesota, but I th ink the game passed that front office by.
12:42
What’s your cat’s name?: And do you prefer human names like Charlie or ridiculous names like Sir Fuzzyrump? Or a blend? – Sir Charles Fuzzyrump, Duke of Meowshire
12:42
Dan Szymborski: Ridicluous
12:42
John Danielson: Is Profar/Gallo untouchable except for Jose Fernandez/Chris Sale types?
12:42
Dan Szymborski: I wouldn’t say that
12:43
Jeff: How come Jacob DeGrom doesn’t get hyped up like syndergaard or harvey does?
12:43
Dan Szymborski: For one is that he’s probably hit his upside.
12:43
Dan Szymborski: Harvey’s injuries kinda give the feeling that he’s never really hit where he could be
12:44
Dan Szymborski: And Sydnergaard’s *way* younger than him
12:44
Nick: Schwarber is a heavy, injured, poor fielding, platoon left fielder. While he absolutely mashes righties, I find it hard to believe he has a lot of trade value
12:44
Dan Szymborski: If you put it in the worst case way possible, a lot of things sound bad.
12:45
Dan Szymborski: “This restaurant sucks. They gave me a glass of this old water with yeast in there, with sugars just sitting in there fermenting, and it was so bad it even affected my reasoning and motor skills! 0 stars”
12:46
RABBINICAL COLLEGE GUY: Do you believe the Astros can win their division and why?
12:46
Dan Szymborski: They can, because I think they have a better roster htan Texas. They’re unlikely to because 4 1/2 game leads, as small as they sound, hold up more often than they dont’
12:46
Future Plans: If you could retire today in full economic comfort, what would you do to fill out your days?
12:46
Dan Szymborski: What I do now
12:47
Dan Szymborski: I am paid money to write about baseball and video games. What dumbass would walk away from that?
12:47
Dan Szymborski: What kind of sick person wants to do nothing with their life but spend money?
12:47
mtsw: Which current MLB position player do you think would have the best chance at making a Matt Bush-style late career transition to pitching?
12:47
Dan Szymborski: Francoeur
12:47
Dan Szymborski: He has a good arm, a little bit of experience, and there’s no chance he doesn’t go away for like another decade
12:48
Hmm: Of retired hitters 50 years of age or older, who would have the best chance of hitting a Syndergaard fastball if they picked up a bat today?
12:48
Dan Szymborski: Bonds
12:48
jon: Passan says Schwarber only gets moved if its Miller and Chapman. Would you do that deal as Chicago? New York?
12:48
Dan Szymborski: Miller *and* Chapman it suddenly becomes more interesting
12:50
GSon: The 2016 June First Entry draft (recently completed, including the closure of the signing period) resulted in one guy in the top 350 or so, not signing.. Who from this year’s class makes it to the ML the fastest?..
12:50
Dan Szymborski: I can see Arizona deciding to stick Duplantier in the pen and him get to MLB very quickly
12:50
natsfan: Somebody around here was saying CLE should go out and “get” Miller but he doesn’t seem to be their type. Too big a move, too heavy a price. Agree or disagree?
12:50
Dan Szymborski: They have other needs
12:50
Josh: Thoughts on Terry Ryan firing?
12:50
Dan Szymborski: Overdue
12:51
Chuncey Wiggins: What’s your first goal you’ll want to accomplish when playing No Mans Sky?
12:51
Dan Szymborski: Them releasing the game finally so I can put it in my Steam cart.
12:52
David: If the Rockies realized that should be trading Cargo, what would be a realistic price? Would Clevinger, Naquin and Plutko (or some other C-level prospect) be enough assuming no salary relief?
12:52
Dan Szymborski: If the Rockies offered this trade, I would hope that nobody in the Indians camp died laughing.
12:53
Chuncey Wiggins: Would you rather have to wear socks for gloves in the summer or wear gloves for socks in winter?
12:53
Dan Szymborski: Glove for socks in winter
12:53
Dan Szymborski: I rarely wear socks anyway
12:53
Dan Szymborski: Even in the winter, I typically only wear socks if there’s a good chance I’m doing some trudging through some kind of icy stuff
12:54
Bawling in Boulder: What would be a realistic trade return for CarGo right now?
12:54
Dan Szymborski: If no salary relief, one good prospect out of the top 50
12:55
Mick D: Which is the most likely possibility to move Matt Kemp for the Padres:
12:55
Dan Szymborski: Another GM has a nervous breakdown.
12:55
GSon: (with respect to the question I posed earlier: 2016 MLB Draft fastest to the ML’s.. I suggest Eric Lauer for the Padres, an SP from Kent State and Nick Senzel, a 3B from Tennessee drafted by the Reds)
12:55
Dan Szymborski: Thing is, neither team is known for promoting aggressively
12:55
Mike: Thoughts on the NES Classic Edition? The lack of expandability is a little disappointing, but $60 for 30 games really has piqued my interest.
12:55
Dan Szymborski: Here’s the problem: it has to be better than emulation to be worth buying.
12:56
Dan Szymborski: It’s cool and it has retro factor, but not for 30 games and for $60.
12:56
Dan Szymborski: Give me *every* NES game somehow, yeah that’s cool and I’ll think abou tit.
12:57
Dan Szymborski: But if I can’t play Destiny of an Emperor and other Mega Mans and River City Ransom and Tecmo Super Bowl and Maniac Mansion? Meh.
12:57
Philip: Favorite ice cream?
12:57
Dan Szymborski: Not that into ice cream
12:58
Sean: Do you think Dylan Bundy can succeed as a starter? That fastball is legit and seems to have some good secondary pitches if he can command them better.
12:58
Dan Szymborski: I think he can, though I obviously worry about his arm
12:58
Josh: Why does pitcher handedness affect how fast a BATTER can get out of the box? Or are you talking about a rhp pitching to a lhp, while lhp is batting (presumably) from left side?
12:58
Dan Szymborski: Because a righthander will face more lefthanded batters than the lefthander and the lefthanded batters will put the ball in play more often against them
12:59
Philip: Strawberry or coffee ice cream?
12:59
Dan Szymborski: Strawberry
12:59
Uther: Does ice cream taste better in a little plastic helmet at a baseball game?
12:59
Dan Szymborski: I’m not big on ice cream, but if I eat it, I don’t eat it in hot environments.
12:59
Dan Szymborski: I don’t like my food being a race against time
12:59
kevinthecomic: My cat’s name is Higgins. Is he any relation to Fangraphs staff write Dylan Higgins?
12:59
Dan Szymborski: Ask Dylan.
12:59
Matt: I have a theory that you’ve just convinced us of this “algorithm” you call ZiPS, and it’s really just your arbitrary assessment of player. What say you?
12:59
Dan Szymborski: Would save time.
1:00
c: should widowmaker be buffed again?
1:00
Dan Szymborski: Slightly
1:00
supertouch: Do you get a lot of attention from Rangers fans? Disproportionate attention? Do you think it’s because you stop by LSB on occasion?
1:00
Dan Szymborski: Possibly because I’m outright willing to call you a troll.
1:01
Nick: Who says no– Lucroy to the Indians for Zimmer, Juan Hillman, Mike Clevenger
1:01
Dan Szymborski: Indians I think. Lucroy is useful to them, but I don’t they’re desperate for him
1:01
The Doctor: Green eggs or ham?
1:01
Dan Szymborski: Ham. You shouldn’t be eating green eggs.
1:01
JD: Crazy how it feels like Arrieta has not been dominant this year, but has 2.68 ERA and 3.04 FIP. I guess its tough to follow up a season with 1.77 ERA and 2.35 FIP. Command is what has been the most eye opening for me.
1:01
EbenezerBatflip: My first goal is to mod the PC version of No Man’s Sky so I can teleport to other players 😛
1:01
Dan Szymborski: I think that’s everyone’s
1:02
Matt: Most overrated sports movie? Field of dreams?
1:02
Dan Szymborski: The Natural
1:02
Dan Szymborski: Field of Dream is up there though
1:02
Dan Szymborski: But they hacked away a lot of the essence of the Malamud
1:02
Matt: You have a cart made of steam? How does it hold things?
1:02
Dan Szymborski: Love and elf farts
1:03
AJ: The Marlins are in a race, obviously, but if the Sox were willing to offer Moncada for Fern, would the Marlins pull the trigger?
1:03
Dan Szymborski: They might. It’s an interesting question.
1:03
Rick C: Former OFer Jordan Schafer is trying to become a pitcher in the Dodgers’ system.
1:03
Dan Szymborski: Already hits like one, so he’s half there
1:03
mtsw: Why aren’t there more 1 vs 1 e-sports type games? People seem generally unhappy with a lot of the “one jerk teammate can ruin your experience” aspect of League of Legends but there doesn’t seem to be other games in the e-sports niche that are 1v1 now that competitive Starcraft is virtually dead (unless Hearthstone counts). Thoughts?
1:03
Dan Szymborski: There’s more dynamic with teams though.
1:03
Matt: Considering you work at home, on average every month, how many consecutive days do you go without stepping foot outside?
1:03
Dan Szymborski: My mailbox is outside
1:04
Dan Szymborski: There’s probably only a day or two each month that I don’t go outside
1:04
Matt: Have you ever thought of rebranding “working from home” to “living at work”? It makes you sound like more of a go getter, no?
1:04
Dan Szymborski: I don’t want to sound that corporate
1:04
Slew: NES Classic No Tetris = Fail
1:05
Erik: What goes into ZiPS’ decision of when players will peak? Different skill sets aging at different rates?
1:05
Dan Szymborski: The wide group of similar players.
1:05
Dan Szymborski: ZiPS uses cluster analysis
1:05
Guest: Cats are damn useless. Get a dog
1:06
Dan Szymborski: I’m not walking a dog at 6 in the morning
1:06
Bobby Sandy: Do you have a favorite Fangraphs writer?
1:06
Dan Szymborski: The first one to build a time machine and delete Cistulli from Earth Prime
1:06
Indy: Does anyone else feel like MLB.TVs blackout rule pushes fans toward out of market teams? I just don’t see how my young son will ever latch onto an in market team, since he will never be able to watch their games unless I decide to drop $120+ a month on cable. Just kinda wanted your thoughts
1:06
Dan Szymborski: I still believe that they’ll eventually fix the situation
1:06
Aaron: Below the chat window are links to “Related Posts” for chat transcripts from 2013, 2014, and 2015. Would like to see this list changed to your most recent chats. Just a suggestion, not a question. Thanks for the chats as always.
1:07
Dan Szymborski: It just means that my schtick is tired and old and it doens’t matter what year you read my chat
1:07
Dan Szymborski: OK, time for Lightning Round. You know the rules. GO
1:07
Michael: favorite muffin
1:07
Dan Szymborski: blueberry
1:08
Rog: What is that smell?
1:08
Dan Szymborski: Donuts, skunk, and the mailman
1:08
Slew: Top 5 NES games:
1:08
Dan Szymborski: Think I already named mine!
1:08
TP for my Jung Ho: Jail for a week or can’t leave your house for a year?
1:08
Dan Szymborski: Jail assuming for the sake of the question that it’s not something that affects my employment status
1:09
Dan Szymborski: Like “Dan agreeds to go to jail on a bet” not “Dan was found guilty of something”
1:09
Roadhog: best overwatch tank is:
1:09
Dan Szymborski: Defense Reinhardt, Offense Zarya
1:09
Toki: What would we get if Spielberg and Mel Brooks teamed up?
1:09
Dan Szymborski: At this point, probably a mess.
1:09
Dude Bruh: Opinion on Hanzo’s arrow hitbox?
1:09
Dan Szymborski: Gotta be big or he just plain s ucks
1:09
Jeremy: How underrated was Zombies Ate My Neighbors? Just finished it on emulator, top 10 SNES IMO
1:09
Dan Szymborski: Wasn’t relaly my genre
1:09
Sean: Should Blizzard attempt to revive Starcraft by balancing it around 2v2 or 3v3? That would be way more fun to play and watch, IMO.
1:09
Dan Szymborski: I think Starcraft’s dead
1:09
ChopChop: vote in dewcision 2016?
1:10
Dan Szymborski: Opening my veins in a warm bath is winning
1:10
Dan Szymborski: That or Gary Johnson probably. It remains to be seen how much connection I have left with this world come November.
1:10
johnforthegiants: Am I the worst troll on FanGraphs?
1:10
Dan Szymborski: Never studied the issue
1:10
JD: what should i make for dinner?
1:10
Dan Szymborski: Spaghetti carbonara
1:10
Guest: Any kind of fast food and only PBR or any kind of beer and only taco bell?
1:10
Dan Szymborski: The latter. I can do without fast food
1:10
mijo: Whats your favorite movie that everyone else seems to hate?
1:11
Dan Szymborski: OK, it’s not my favorite by any means
1:11
Dan Szymborski: But I actually like Hudson Hawk
1:11
Toki: Favorite Monty Python movie
1:11
Dan Szymborski: Meaning of Life
1:11
Big Tall T: I was on a Chinese game show yesterday and failed miserably, what level of shame is appropriate?
1:11
Dan Szymborski: I believe the standard is the nine familial exterminations.
1:11
Uther: So I finally read Ready Player One after numerous recommendations on this chat. You will really like it!
1:12
Nate: You’re playing overwatch and need a song to get pumped. That song is…
1:12
Dan Szymborski: I do not use music as an artificial stimulant
1:12
Gavin: What maps will Ana see usage on?
1:12
Dan Szymborski: Honestly, I don’t think she will get that much competitive use. But we’ll see how it shakes out.
1:13
Dan Szymborski: The basic issue is that unless you do something really unbalanced otherwise, you have to heal groups as well as Lucio or singles as well as Mercy to displace them significantly
1:13
hscer: what’s technically the legal status of emulators anyway
1:13
Dan Szymborski: Kind of a gray area. Since I own practically every emulated game I enjoy, I don’t feel much guitl.
1:13
bjogc: Jail for a month, or you have to guest star on carsons podcast 4 times a month for a year?
1:13
Dan Szymborski: Podcast I think
1:13
Datt Mamon: DATT. MAMON.
1:13
Bratislava: Just had a son, going through and buying old Genesis and N64 games to build up the library for him (still own old consoles of those with very few games). A couple of recommendations for each system?
1:14
Dan Szymborski: Genesis had some terrific sports games
1:14
Dan Szymborski: It really depends on what he likes
1:14
Dan Szymborski: I like the sports game and the RPGs
1:14
ChopChop: not the election.. the dewcision.. Baja Blast versus Pitch Black?
1:14
Dan Szymborski: Oh
1:14
Dan Szymborski: I don’t like Mountain Dew
1:14
Chicago Mark: Any more baseball questions?
1:14
Dan Szymborski: Not after the Lightning Round
1:14
Guest: How long would you last with hawk harrelson following you around and giving the play by play of your life
1:14
Dan Szymborski: I’m self-absorbed enough to enjoy that for a long time
1:14
Nate: Suicide squad level of excitement from 0 – Can’t effin wait?
1:14
Dan Szymborski: I don’t get my hopes up for any movie
1:15
Umm: Is it weird that I name the spiders in my apartment?
1:15
Dan Szymborski: Yes
1:16
TP for my Jung Ho: Try and name 3 good Will Smith movies.
1:16
Dan Szymborski: Ali, original Men in Black, Hitch
1:16
Mike: What is your favorite Star Trek movie, of any incarnation (TOS, TNG, reboot)?
1:16
Dan Szymborski: Wrath of Khan
1:16
Dan Szymborski: but the best star trek is still DS9 last four season
1:16
Matt: Tell me somehting I don’t know about this Dan Szymborski guy.
1:17
Dan Szymborski: I think I have a sprained muscle in my back
1:17
Money: Frugal, but intrigued by Overwatch. Convince me please!
1:17
Dan Szymborski: I’d rather have Overwatch then not having OVerwatch and $40
1:17
Dan Szymborski: than
1:17
Guest: Have you/will you read the star wars novels?
1:17
Dan Szymborski: I read Thrawn but not a whole lot else
1:17
Jeremy: Given the multitude of incredible, likely not played games on NES, SNES, Genesis, etc, any reason to purchase current-gen console?
1:18
Dan Szymborski: Depends how important graphics and stuff is. Nostalgia plays a role in these games.
1:18
Grand Admiral Thrawn: Excited to have me as a part of Star Wars canon??
1:18
Dan Szymborski: Yes, actually
1:18
noodle: Does heaven exist?
1:18
Dan Szymborski: No idea. If it does, probably different than described and from a definable physical reason
1:19
Dan Szymborski: To ants, humans have the power of a god, after all
1:19
Rafta Fang: is there a type/idea of a video game that you think would be awesome that hasn’t existed yet?
1:19
Dan Szymborski: One that sends me money
1:19
TKDC: What is the worst thing Trump has said during his campaign?
1:19
Dan Szymborski: announced ru nning for president
1:19
Matt: On a scale of Fired – Promoted to CEO, what would my companies reaction be to me tearing down my cubicle walls and installing a hammock?
1:19
Dan Szymborski: depends on the company.
1:19
Toki: Will they ever make a movie about the original Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles that killed people? The original comic was dark.
1:19
Dan Szymborski: No, I think that has passed
1:19
AF: For better or worse, Hillary is the mean of the last 3 presidents. Trump is a scary disaster. Unless you think life has been unlivable for last 20 years how could you be indifferent?
1:20
Dan Szymborski: The robber baron’s cruelty may sometimes sleep, his cupidity may
at some point be satiated, but those who torment us for our own good
will torment us without end for they do so with the approval
of their own conscience.
1:20
bjogc: N64 has more nostalgia but PS1 had infinitely better games and way more of a selection. Smash bros golden eye and Mario 64 are great but seriously give it a rest with the n64 revisionist history
1:20
Dan Szymborski: PS1 has more nostalgia for me
1:21
Dan Szymborski: I had way more PS1 games
1:21
Rafta Fang: video game book suggestion?
1:21
Dan Szymborski: Don’t have one
1:21
Frank: how old were you when you got your first kiss?
1:21
Dan Szymborski: 12
1:21
rustydude: Own or rent a home?
1:21
Dan Szymborski: Own
1:21
mijo: any hopes for the magnificent seven remake?
1:21
Dan Szymborski: Remakes almost always only work when the original sucks, so no
1:21
Dan Szymborski: Ocean’s Eleven only worked becuase, let’s be honest, the original sucked
1:21
EbenezerBatflip: name a better zombie game than Zombies Ate My Neighbors
1:21
Dan Szymborski: I’m not into the genre typically
1:21
Matt: If PS4 released Q*Bert, would you buy a PS4?
1:21
Dan Szymborski: No
1:21
Rob: Rank the Back to the Future movies. I say 1-3-2
1:21
Dan Szymborski: Reasonable
1:22
Cyclone: Tell me an awesome fact please!
1:22
Dan Szymborski: Mike Awesome’s finisher was a running powerbomb.
1:22
Matt: Trump v Hillary v Recent president: A poo sandwich with cheese is still a poo sandwich. Also, who was that quote you responded with? Adam Smith?
1:22
Dan Szymborski: CS Lewis
1:22
Will: do you have a man cave?
1:22
Dan Szymborski: I think the whole house is
1:22
TKDC: How is Hitch a good movie?
1:23
Dan Szymborski: I enjoyed it
1:23
Stick: % chance the power ranger movie is enjoyable
1:23
Dan Szymborski: 0
1:23
Toki: Will Final fantasy XV bomb?
1:23
Dan Szymborski: I think so
1:23
Dan Szymborski: The runup has been so long
1:23
Dan Szymborski: And the FFVII remake is making me less interested in what the company does
1:23
NotSueKostielne: Which pokemon would be the best pet to have? which most dangerous?
1:23
Dan Szymborski: I do not have the depth of pokemon knowledge to naswer this
1:23
mijo: Theres gotta be someone out there that only watches the talking dead and not the show right?
1:23
Dan Szymborski: There’s someone out there, I’m sure, that thinks George Washington is still alive
1:23
TP: Enjoy your team at the convention this week. Should be memorable.
1:24
Dan Szymborski: I have a team?
1:24
well guess what its you: best jon bois content?
1:24
Dan Szymborski: Madden stuff
1:24
Matt: % chance the pink ranger marries me?
1:24
Dan Szymborski: approaching 0
1:24
Barry: Life of Brian was the best Python
1:24
Gavin: Would you rather fight one Giancarlo Stanton sized duck or 100 duck sized Giancarlo Stantons?
1:24
Dan Szymborski: 100 duck sized. I think they’d be hard to coordinate
1:24
Sean: As a libertarian, do you support basic income?
1:25
Dan Szymborski: Only as an alternative to what we do now, but since it wouldn’t be an alternative but essentially an addition, absolutely not.
1:25
Bork: Hi Dan I missed the chat because of a meeting. Did I miss anything important
1:25
Dan Szymborski: It’s my chat, so no
1:25
EbenezerBatflip: Hahaha, you’d get picked apart by 100 of them
1:25
Dan Szymborski: Coordination is an issue
1:25
Toki: Will they ever remaster in HD Legends of Dragoon?
1:25
Dan Szymborski: I don’t bleieve so
1:25
a name: Python script that generates Monty Python scripts lr
1:26
Yesh: When was the last time you heard/saw something that changed the way you looked at the world? What was it?
1:26
Dan Szymborski: When I last had an eye test, they dilated my pupils and everything looked weird for like an hour
1:26
rustydude: If you’re a fan of salmon, do you go twice or thrice the price with wild caught salmon or is the farmed stuff good enough?
1:26
Dan Szymborski: Mostly just liked smokes
1:26
Dan Szymborski: smoked
1:26
TP: Today’s RNC schedule has *everything*: Duck Dynasty, Chachi, a Navy SEAL, an underwear model, a Fox News Sheriff, a “Real World” alum…all for YOU!
1:26
Dan Szymborski: Luckily I have no desire to watch conventions
1:26
Matt: One time, I had this brilliant idea for an invention, where I would take the electrons and fire them into this little box thus creating an image that can be transmitted through the air. Then I realized TV had been invented 75 years earlier.
1:26
AF: Do you answer basketball questions and if so Durant?
1:27
Dan Szymborski: That’s not Q
1:27
Sean: My question got answered in literally less than 30 seconds after submittal. I must have struck a nerve!
1:27
Dan Szymborski: No, I’m just almost caught up
1:27
a name: Python script that generates Monty Python scripts or Month Python script about Python scripts?
1:27
Dan Szymborski: the latter
1:27
Dan Szymborski: DONE
1:27
Dan Szymborski: Caught up!
1:27
Dan Szymborski: And so ends 90 minutes of your life that you will repent having spent in such a way when you are on your deathbed.
1:28
Dan Szymborski: As a reminder, you can find my work at ESPN.com, chats and projections at FanGraphs, and DSzymborski on Twitter.
1:28
Dan Szymborski: You cannot find me in your grocer’s freezer because I am not frozen food nor do I market any such item.
1:28
Dan Szymborski: Now, go do something worthwhile in your life, like throw tomatoes at Murray Chass.
1:28
Dan Szymborski: And remember….be good to each other. /thejudge





 

Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.

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ackbar7member
7 years ago

A guy with 100 percentile knuckle and control could probably throw it softer than 60. A pitch that could move that much and go right where the pitcher wanted it most of the time seems fairly unhittable probably down to around 50, possibly lower. Mixing in curves, sliders and sinkers at the same speed would also keep this very soft tosser in the majors.

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