Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Houston at Arizona | 21:40 ET
Keuchel (226.0 IP, 66 xFIP-) vs. de la Rosa (185.2 IP, 104 xFIP-)
The Angels and Astros, currently separated by a single win, currently feature a roughly 25% probability of producing the same regular-season record and necessitating the addition of a one-game playoff for the right to appear in the normal, regularly scheduled one-game playoff.

By way of comparison, and to better illustrate the likelihood of such a contingency, here are some events which have occurred less than a quarter of the time in 2015:

• Aramis Ramirez — or any of other 25 qualified players, actually — finished an at-bat with a base hit.
• Right-hander Shelby Miller, despite all manner of proficiency, recorded a win for his start.
• Your grandfather left sufficient gratuity for service at a restaurant.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Houston Television.

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Los Angeles AL at Texas | 20:05 ET
Heaney (101.1 IP, 106 xFIP-) vs. Holland (52.1 IP, 109 xFIP-)
By whichever methodology one cares to utilize, the Rangers currently possess a probability greater than 90% of winning the American’s Leagues most westerly division. Because the Angels have at least a chance of sweeping Texas, however — and therefore of gaining the division for themselves — this series opener offers the illusion of hope. The author is quoting Emily Dickinson, naturally, when he suggests that hope is the thing with feathers — and Guns N’ Roses, just as naturally, when observing that an illusion is something one ought to use.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Texas Radio.

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Oakland at Los Angeles AL | 19:05 ET
Zito (3.0 IP, 238 xFIP-) vs. Richards (195.1 IP, 95 xFIP-)
It is not particularly helpful to suggest that — for a club such as the Angels, who find themselves within two games on each side either of winning the AL West or failing to qualify at all for the postseason — it’s not so helpful to suggest that every victory is meaningful. Perhaps more enlightening, however, is to observe that, among all the clubs playing today, the Angels possess the highest projected probability of winning as calculated by the methodology used at the site (and ignoring precise lineup decisions, because the information is unavailable).

Regard, that same statement rendered — with difficulties — into the form of a table:

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Oakland Radio.

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Episode 599
Dave Cameron is both (a) the managing editor of FanGraphs and (b) the guest on this particular edition of FanGraphs Audio, during which edition he participates in an inquisitive but largely unscientific conversation regarding the Bryce Harper–Jonathan Papelbon contretemps, confirms that the Mets are scary but not also spooky, and (finally) attempts to explain why professional coin-tossing would make for an utter failure as a spectator sport.

This edition of the program is sponsored by Draft, the first truly mobile fantasy sports app. Compete directly against idiot host Carson Cistulli by clicking here.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 46 min play time.)

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Podcast: Play in new window | Download

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Detroit at Texas | 20:05 ET
Norris (53.1 IP, 113 xFIP-) vs. Hamels (197.1 IP, 86 xFIP-)
With the loss on Monday by Texas — plus the wins by Houston and Los Angeles — the latter two clubs trail the Rangers by only 1.5 and 2.0 games, respectively, now and all three clubs still possess at least a 15% probability of claiming the division despite the fact that the season is a mere six games from completion. It’s unlikely, the entire scenario — although not so unlikely that one is compelled to announce, while throwing his hands in the air, “You couldn’t make this stuff up!” Gabriel García Márquez, for example, could’ve probably made this stuff up pretty easily were he still alive. Also, so could probably most little brothers, given an afternoon to really explore the space.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Texas Radio.

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Houston at Seattle | 22:10 ET
McCullers (114.2 IP, 88 xFIP-) vs. Elias (107.1 IP, 106 xFIP-)
There are probably reasons to continue following the outcomes of National League games over this final week of the season, but nearly zero of them concern the influence of those same games on what might be called the “postseason landscape.” Indeed, so far as postseason landscapes are concerned, the American League has developed a monopoly on them. The Western division, in particular, is not unlike a mountain road populated almost exclusively by scenic vistas of postseason landscapes.

Regard, the current playoff odds of the three relevant clubs, rendered into a handsome table:

The American League West, Currently

	Team	W	L	GB	EXPW	EXPL	DIV	WC	POFF
1	Rangers	84	71	0.0	87.5	74.5	81.4%	12.7%	94.1%
2	Astros	82	74	2.5	85.4	76.6	8.9%	56.6%	65.5%
3	Angels	81	74	3.0	84.7	77.3	9.7%	25.0%	34.7%

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Houston Television.

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Texas at Houston | 14:10 ET
Perez (65.2 IP, 104 xFIP-) vs. Keuchel (219.0 IP, 68 xFIP-)
Houston’s win Saturday (box) — on the strength largely of a combined four home runs from their middle infield alone — allowed the club to reclaim a game in the standings from Texas in the AL West and, more importantly, to retain a half-game lead over Los Angeles for the second wild-card spot. With seven dates left on their schedule, however, basically nothing has been resolved wherein the Astros’ postseason future is concerned. According to the methodology used at the site, they possess a 60% probability of qualifying for the playoffs in some form and 32% probability of advancing to the divisional series. The suspense, not unlike a cave-aged gruyère or cave-aged some other sort of comestible, is delicious.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Texas Radio.

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Episode 598
Kiley McDaniel is both (a) the lead prospect analyst for FanGraphs and also (b) the guest on this particular edition of FanGraphs Audio — during which edition he discusses recent debuts by Cubs prospect Carl Edwards and the other (Houston’s) Matt Duffy, the likely forthcoming debut of German-born Minnesota outfielder Max Kepler, and varying roles of the league’s assistant general managers.

This edition of the program is sponsored by Draft, the first truly mobile fantasy sports app. Compete directly against idiot host Carson Cistulli by clicking here.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 1 hr 3 min play time.)

Read the rest of this entry »

Podcast: Play in new window | Download

Subscribe: RSS

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Texas at Houston | 13:05 ET
Holland (47.1 IP, 104 xFIP-) vs. McHugh (190.0 IP, 98 xFIP-)
Now possessing merely a half-game advantage over Los Angeles for the AL’s second wild-card spot, it’s fair probably to state that Houston is likely to qualify for the postseason only by the “skin of their teeth.” Were it not for this rare medical condition — which is known medically as dermadentosis and affects literally dozens — the Astros’ odds might be even worse. This afternoon, they endeavor simultaneously to separate themselves from the Angels while advancing on the division-leading Rangers.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Texas Radio.

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