Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 9/28/15 by Carson Cistulli September 28, 2015 12:07 Dan Szymborski: I’m here! Sorry, Papelbon fighting on Twitter 12:07 Comment From RotoLandoIf Dueling was an acceptable form of conflict resolution, would we have more or less idiots in the world? 12:08 Dan Szymborski: Oh, more I’m more I’m sure. You’d see all sorts of excessive lawsuits stemming 12:08 Comment From Zenbigger choke job: nationals season or papelbon? 12:08 Dan Szymborski: I think the Nats. We all expected the Nats to be good. We never really expected Papelbon to not be an asshole. 12:08 Comment From Phillies113If I were the Nationals manager and, as a Phillies fan, was actively trying to sabotage the team, would I still be a better manager than Matt Williams? 12:08 Dan Szymborski: Probably. At least they’d get a good draft pick 12:08 Comment From GSonah.. figured I’d mosey in about five minutes late.. don’t want to push the moderator.. 12:09 Comment From RotoLandoJonathon “Sprewell” Papelbon 12:09 Comment From OmarWho would you rather hang out with ,John Rocker or Jonathan Papelbon? 12:09 Dan Szymborski: Rocker 12:10 Dan Szymborski: I’m a straight white male of above-average income, I’m sure Rocker wouldn’t have any issue of me. 12:10 Dan Szymborski: Maybe the polish last name? 12:10 Comment From ArchieAre you trusting Archer in his repeat start against Toronto this week? 12:10 Dan Szymborski: As always, depends on what the alternate is 12:11 Comment From Cashmere+Tacoso Matt Williams had no idea what was going on, but knew Harper was coming out of the game? Or took him out himself for a different reason? 12:11 Dan Szymborski: That’s cute, thinking that Matt Williams has underlying reasoning that guides his decision-making process. 12:11 Comment From SirrasWhat do you forsee the Mets doing in the offseason? I’m not convinced they win the Cespedes bidding war (which I think is a good thing honestly). They seem set in the middle infield with Tejada/Flores/Herrera. Maybe get a few bullpen arms and a decent utility type (Kelly Johsnon again?)? 12:11 Dan Szymborski: I think they’ll make a better-than-token attempt to re-sign Cespedes and give him a legitimate offer, but someone will offer him more than the Mets will be willing to pay 12:12 Dan Szymborski: And the Mets escape a terrible contract by being cheap, not becuase they actually understood the underlying reason it was a bad contract 12:12 Comment From NealDIJ WHATS FOR LUNCH 12:12 Dan Szymborski: Merguez sausage. 12:13 Dan Szymborski: I don’t give a crap about organic food – I like as much science stuff as possible! But Whole Foods has a LOT of sausages. 12:13 Comment From mikeHow the hell do you decide between price and keuchel for the AL Cy? They’re virtually identical in both ERA and FIP 12:13 Dan Szymborski: When you get to a tie you absolutely can not break using normal evaluative methods, only then will I use stuff like leverage as the tiebreaker. 12:14 Comment From SirrasHow surprised ar eyou with how David Wright has played since coming back from the DL? 12:15 Dan Szymborski: I’m not all that surprised. He actually got time to recover from injury instead of foolhardy showing how tough he is. 12:15 Comment From BrenPlayers still think ignoring the rookie after they HR is funny too. 12:15 Comment From SirrasTrea Turner has barely played since being called up. Problem? 12:15 Dan Szymborski: Yes. There’s no reason he shouldn’t be starting once the season was essentially over. 12:16 Comment From NealAm I crazy for wanting the Jays to offer a QO to Estrada? Odds are he turns it down, but worst case scenario they overpay for a career year, and best case it gives them leverage to re-sign him as well as a draft pick if he doesn’t. 12:16 Dan Szymborski: I don’t think it’s really that crazy. 1/16 is really nothing. There are awlays people that think 1/16 is the same as offering 2/32 or 3/48, but they’re just dumb. 12:16 Comment From SirrasWhat do the Marlins need to do this offseason to compete? What do they actually do this offseason? 12:16 Dan Szymborski: Spend a lot of money? I dont’ think this team has the resources in-house to be good. 12:16 Comment From CDMJonathan Papelbon has -0.2 WAR with the Nationals 12:16 Comment From ArchieArcher vs TOR, Wacha @ PIT, Stoman at BAL or Hendricks @ MIL 12:17 Dan Szymborski: I think I’d take Stroman at Baltimore. The team’s sucked offensively for months. 12:18 Comment From ChristianPapelbon choked out any hope Williams had of keeping his manager job right? 12:18 Dan Szymborski: I believe so. 12:18 Comment From sempertyWhat chance do you give St. Louis of resigning Heyward with the emergence of Piscotty and Grichuk as usable players? 12:18 Dan Szymborski: I still think decent. I still don’t think Heyward will trigger a bidding war. 12:18 Comment From RotoLandoWhole Foods bacon is awesome. It’s a trick to get the non-organic people in there, but damn it it works 12:18 Comment From GeeOh boy its Szymborski, get ready for lots of *these* 12:19 Dan Szymborski: YOU GOT A BETTER PLURAL OF THIS? 12:19 Dan Szymborski: THISSES? THAT’S CRAZY. 12:19 Comment From HenryIs there really an argument for Arrieta to win Cy Young other than “TEH 20 WINZ”. If you prefer run prevention, Greinke is better ,and if you prefer defense-independent numbers, Kershaw is better. 12:19 Dan Szymborski: Well, he *does* have more bWAR. 12:19 Comment From Bryce HarperI should have punched Paps in the face shouldn’t I? 12:19 Dan Szymborski: In self-defense of course. 12:20 Comment From rayTigers bringing back Ausmus good or nah? 12:20 Dan Szymborski: Nah 12:20 Comment From NealHow disappointed will Orioles fans be this off-season? 12:20 Dan Szymborski: Not at all. This season has already provided the necessary demoralization. 12:21 Comment From cwhat do you make of ryan goins’ transformation from offensive black hole to his present level of league average middle infielder offense? sustainable? 12:21 Dan Szymborski: Not sold yet. 12:21 Comment From MattRemember when Papelbon thought that Mo should be setting up for him in the All Star game a few years back? 12:21 Dan Szymborski: I actually think I missed that fun at the time. 12:22 Comment From RonSpeaking of QO , who becomes the first player to actually take one? 12:22 Dan Szymborski: I’m still shocked that Cuddyer wasn’t, but the Mets out-dumbed the Rockies, an impressive feat. 12:23 Dan Szymborski: I still think there’s a *chance* Smarch does. 12:23 Comment From ArchieWhat do you think the odds are of the Red Sox starting the season with a Betts, Bradley, Castillo OF? Or will Dombrowski deal someone? 12:23 Dan Szymborski: I believe that’s the smartest configuration unless a deal falls into their laps. 12:23 Comment From IzzyWhat are the Mets chances of winning the NLDS against the Dodgers with and without home field advantage? 12:24 Dan Szymborski: I dont’ have the numbers in front of me, but probably 44/40 or somethin glike that. 12:24 Dan Szymborski: Playoff formats favor the Dodgers – kershaw/greinke pitch a greater proportion of games in playoffs than they would in regular seaosn. 12:24 Comment From MattPapelbon gets traded to Japan this offseason a-la Mr Baseball 12:25 Dan Szymborski: They should pay all of Papelbon’s salary and give him to the Rockies, with the proviso that if the Rockies release or trade Papelbon elsewhere, then the Rockies become responsible for the salary. 12:25 Comment From earls ghostNow that the Orioles season has all but officially ended, which direction do you think the Orioles will go. Having saved lots of cash not re-signing Cruz and Markakis last year and with Wieters, Davis, Chen and O’Day all most likely leaving, there should be enough cash for the organization to pursue free agents. Do you think they will spend lavishly on a corner OF and perhaps on a SP? (Though their mantra has been: “Buy the Bats, Grow the Arms.”) Or will they continue to look for value, perhaps retaining Parra at a reasonable price? 12:25 Dan Szymborski: Here’s the problem – losing Wieters, Davis, Chen, and O’Day doesn’t really free up cash for anything. 12:26 Dan Szymborski: They’re paying what, $29 million for those players this year? 12:26 Dan Szymborski: They can’t likely even *replace* the lost 2015 performance of those players with $29 million a year in free agency. 12:27 Dan Szymborski: So it doesn’t really free up money for improvements as they have to spend more than that just to get back to the team quality they have right now. 12:28 Dan Szymborski: Kinda like how if you stop paying mortgage on your house and your monthly payments are a very good deal, the bank foreclosing you don’t free up money for you. You still have to live somewhere. 12:28 Comment From HenryGreinke has a higher bWAR than Arrieta, so that wouldn’t really be a good case for him 12:28 Dan Szymborski: Bah, that’s what I get for not double-checking. 12:29 Comment From NikJared Eickhoff has pitched just as well as Aaron Nola – especially once he started throwing the curveball. Think he’s a legit rotation mainstay going forward? 12:30 Dan Szymborski: I’m cautiously optimistic that he’ll be a mid rotation guy. 12:30 Comment From NealShark takes the QO. 12:31 Comment From VicWhat do you make of the Brewers SP on Tuesday? And, if he pitches well on Tuesday, will he also go on Sunday? 12:31 Dan Szymborski: Jorge Lopez? He’s had a breakout season, but also remember that AA ain’t MLB. 12:31 Comment From NealA Jays radio broadcaster suggested moving Tulo to first so they can use Goins at short stop next year. 12:31 Dan Szymborski: Yeah, I made fun of that. It was Howarth. 12:31 Comment From Matt2008 – “If I was managing the team, I would close,” Papelbon said. “I’m not managing the team, so it don’t matter…We’ve both earned that right; us, by winning the World Series and having the opportunity of having our manager there and our team being represented, and Mariano by what he’s done for this role, we’re in Yankee Stadium and blah, blah, blah,” Papelbon said. “It’s not that easy. Everybody thinks it’s a cut and dry answer, but it’s not.” 12:32 Dan Szymborski: I gotta say, I dont’ find that particularly egregious. 12:32 Dan Szymborski: I won’t fault Papelbon for being overconfident in his abilities. I will fault him for acting like an ass and punching people and throwing baseballs at heads. 12:33 Dan Szymborski: And Rivera was great, but let’s be honest, Hall of Fame Yankees, there’s a lot of additional blah, blah, blah about. 12:33 Comment From Bryce HarperNot for self defense, for the good of humanity Dan 12:33 Comment From Phillies113What did the poor Rockies do to deserve that?? 12:34 Dan Szymborski: I think it would be a win for Rockies fans, given the chance that a frustrated Papelbon pitching in Coors knocks out the Monforts. 12:34 Comment From grouchodo you think lackey will get a QO? 12:34 Dan Szymborski: Yes 12:34 Comment From GuestGut reaction: NL Cy Young winner? 12:34 Dan Szymborski: Greinke 12:34 Comment From baltic wolfWith my fantasy baseball season at an end, I have to give a big shout out to the ZIPs projection system. Amazing to me, at least, how well it performed. Some misses like Hughes and Moss obviously, but it really knocked it out of the park with some other players—Chris Davis in particular. I had been skeptical that he could raise his batting average that much this year. Great job with your inputs! 12:35 Dan Szymborski: Like all projections, ZiPS will miss some and hit some. It’s a whole lot of algorithms, not a time machine after all. 12:35 Dan Szymborski: The future is very uncertain! 12:35 Comment From GuestGut reaction: Who wins the NL Wild Card game? 12:35 Dan Szymborski: Pittsburgh 12:35 Comment From GaryDo you think there’s something to the Orioles being bad at developing arms? Arrieta, Gausman, and Bundy all look bad, and I can’t think of any recent successes. 12:35 Dan Szymborski: It’s hard to call it a pattern yet, but it’ s not promising. 12:35 Comment From MikeBack to Arrieta – recognizing what he’s going up against for Cy Young with the double headed Dodger monster, does he have any chance at making a stealth run at NL MVP with the absurd second half he’s spun? 12:36 Dan Szymborski: I think it’s much harder for a pitcher to get that MVP Rub in a year with such a dominating MVP candidate. 12:36 Comment From fivetoolmikeBut Arrieta has the highest BP WARP! 12:36 Dan Szymborski: I have not verified this 12:36 Comment From The Famous Singer Rob StewartEven at 26, how risky is it signing Jason Heyward when a good chunk of his value is in his defense? 12:37 Dan Szymborski: There is a good deal of risk. It’s hard to be a +20 guy for all that long and defense peaks really early. Essentially, major league defense is just decline. 12:37 Comment From Dr. Johnny FeverHarper might have hurt his hand hitting Paps. That would not be good. Plus, you know, violence is bad. 12:37 Comment From Dr. Johnny FeverWhen does it make sense for the Phillies to start going after free agents? 12:38 Dan Szymborski: Depends how things develop. If you are a rebuilding team in September 2015 with the worst record on baseball and you’re deciding *which* year you’re going to start pushing, you’ve gone down a very wrong road 12:39 Comment From Eric WeinsteinWith Carlos Martinez now out for the season, are the Cardinals the worst NL team in the playoffs? 12:39 Dan Szymborski: No, I think they’re still better than the Mets. 12:39 Comment From Cashmere+Tacohey do you know if anyone has started a daily fantasy site? seems like a great idea, wonder if there’s one or two readily available 12:40 Dan Szymborski: Wait, what? 12:40 Comment From MikeAL MVP: Donaldson or Trout? 12:40 Dan Szymborski: Donaldson by a hair right now 12:40 Comment From Dr. Johnny FeverCy Young could split Greinke/Kershaw to open for Arrieta? 12:40 Dan Szymborski: There actually doesn’t appear to be any real vote splitting on any larger level 12:41 Comment From Bad BillAny worries about Trevor Rosenthal’s meltdown last night? Or is that just something that occasionally happens to closers? 12:41 Dan Szymborski: Didn’t see anything that would lead to anything more than the observation “Sometimes good players suck.” 12:41 Comment From NealIs Cy Young as much about the story as MVP? 12:43 Dan Szymborski: Not really. The word “value” isn’t in there to trick people that think the word “value” is a noun meaning “the relative worth of whatever weird argument you pull from your colon.” 12:44 Dan Szymborski: “Yeah, Cy Young is for best pitcher and there should be one for best player overall. Wait, the word value is in there! HOLY CRAP, WE NEED TO ASSIGN THE AWARD BASED ON WHETHER THE PLAYER HAS JOE BLANTON AS A TEAMMATE~!” 12:44 Comment From ANB4If the Tigers decision came down to 1 year of Ausmus vs. 3 of Gardenhire, they made the right call, right? Please tell me I’m right. 12:44 Dan Szymborski: Good point. 12:44 Dan Szymborski: Though there’s a risk Gardenhire will still be available. 12:44 Comment From Cory S.A pattern would be Seattle’s inability to develop a decent hitter outside of Seager. 12:44 Comment From Dr. Johnny FeverHayward going anywhere other than the Bronx this winter? 12:44 Dan Szymborski: I think he stays in St. Louis 12:44 Comment From Cashmere+Tacosince Harper/Papelbon have seemingly made up (at least publicly) and if the Nationals don’t cut or suspend Papelbon themselves, does Manfred do so? I’m not saying he should, just wondering if you think MLB would discipline Papelbon to say violence won’t be tolerated 12:45 Dan Szymborski: MLB not tolerating violence is of course a silly thing to expect 12:46 Dan Szymborski: Carlos Quentin got 8 games for charging the mound and breaking a person’s collarbone. Chris Davis got 25 games for neglecting to fill out the paperwork to renew the therapeutic medicine he takes for an anxiety condition. 12:46 Comment From Pirates HurdlesIts better than the people who think the word value means best. Valuable as an adjective = extremely useful or important. 12:46 Dan Szymborski: “Value” in the MVP ballot is defined. The strength of a player’s offense and defense. 12:47 Comment From GSonyou are the Indians and want to make a deal for a LHH 1B.. who would you target given their budget restraints? 12:47 Dan Szymborski: Hmm 12:47 Dan Szymborski: Well, not FA as there aren’t a lot of budget options 12:49 Dan Szymborski: Adam Lind maybe? The Brewers having a new GM increases the probability that they acknowledge reality. 12:49 Comment From Bad BillI like your … pithy … Rosenthal analysis. Specifically, though, I wondered about his loss of command/control. Still the same answer, or a portent of elbow doom? 12:49 Dan Szymborski: *Every* pitcher has an inning here and there where they lose the plot. It’s just that with a closer, they only throw 1. 12:49 Comment From Walt JockettyDo you have a 2016 ZiPS projection for Randy Wolf? Asking for a friend 12:49 Dan Szymborski: I’m not allowed to enable you or Cincy people will beat me up. 12:49 Comment From AndyWho gets back to the playoffs first and in what year: Marlins, Phillies or Braves? 12:49 Dan Szymborski: Wont’ say what year, but I think the Braves will get their first. 12:50 Comment From Dr. Johnny FeverCeiling for Greg Bird? 12:50 Dan Szymborski: Ceiling probably a minor star. 12:50 Dan Szymborski: I think he’s gotten a bit overhyped. 12:51 Dan Szymborski: I like him better than I liked Shane Greene last year, but you have a similar query 12:51 Dan Szymborski: “If X’s MLB performance is reflective of his ability, why did he play worse against AA and AAA players?” 12:52 Comment From HenryShouldn’t Tigers fans be more concerned with the overall decisionmaking process that led to ASSISTANT VP DAVE LITTLEFIELD than with whether Ausmus or Gardenhire manages? 12:52 Dan Szymborski: Yeah, but that’s already settled – they’re not losing that decision making process. 12:52 Comment From Cory S.I think Harper should win the MVP, but isn’t having an MVP season on a a non-playoff team an anti-value? (judging the team, not finances) 12:53 Dan Szymborski: Let’s assume it is. Why would we consider that in an individual award? 12:54 Dan Szymborski: $20 isn’t less valuable just because it’s in the wallet of a drunk driver. 12:54 Comment From BobWho would win in a fistfight between Jonathan Robert Papelbon and John Quincy Adams? 12:55 Dan Szymborski: Probably Papelbon. JQ didn’t seem like the brawling type. 12:55 Dan Szymborski: Plus he’s dead and it’s easy to punch a skeletonj 12:55 Comment From Guestexcited about life on Mars? 12:55 Dan Szymborski: We already found non-human life in the Nats dugout. 12:55 Comment From The Gyorko Store CalledHow much of an advantage is home field advantage? 12:56 Dan Szymborski: about 3 percentage points. 12:56 Comment From Dr. Johnny Fever“If X’s MLB performance is reflective of his ability, why did he play worse against AA and AAA players?” sample size? 12:56 Dan Szymborski: Except it’s the MLB performance that is the smaller one. 12:56 Comment From The Gyorko Store CalledWhen is the last time you used the phase “Cat’s Pajamas”? 12:56 Dan Szymborski: Actually, a few weeks ago. 12:57 Dan Szymborski: I recorded a one minute, fast-talking weekly wrapup using only 1930s sign, with a filter to make it sound like old-timey radio 12:57 Dan Szymborski: but I didn’t think it was good enough to do anything with 12:57 Dan Szymborski: slang, not sign 12:57 Comment From LoogeyWas Al Avilas decision to bring back Ausmus just a big F U to the media for leaking that Ausmus was being let go at the end of the season a while back? I mostly just cant imagine any other reason. 12:57 Dan Szymborski: I doubt it. I think it’s just ham-handed decision making process 12:57 Comment From Dr. Johnny FeverMike Schmidt won an MVP when his team finished more than 10 games back of the Mets. Can’t Harper win won for having, you know, a ridiculously good season and not running into any walls? 12:58 Comment From Cory S.Because the individual award is based on who is most valuable to their team….right? 12:58 Dan Szymborski: Well, according to the MVP ballot, “value” is based on a the strength of a player’s offense and defense. 12:58 Comment From Phillies113Which playoff team this year does not return to the postseason next year? 12:58 Dan Szymborski: Royals. 12:58 Comment From The+DudeWhen it comes to organic produce, I only eat vegetables that were fed with organic grass and celery. 12:58 Comment From The+DudeWhoever is using the username “The Gyorko Store Called” I salute you! 12:59 Comment From MikeHow much do you enjoy Xavier Woods’s trombone playing during New Day matches? 12:59 Dan Szymborski: Very much. 12:59 Dan Szymborski: The best was when he did the Final Fantasy victory music 1:00 Comment From Phillies113It’s easy to punch a skeleton?? Uh, Dan. Dan. First, you’d have to FIND a skeleton. Either you break into a research lab, a biology classroom, or you dig up an old grave. All of these things are illegal and, thus, VERY hard to pull off without getting caught. And then you have to punch it! Bones are super hard; punching the skeleton would hurt so bad! It isn’t easy at all to punch a skeleton! 1:00 Dan Szymborski: I didn’t say it was easy to do without getting caught, I said it’s simply easy to defeat a skeleton once you have it. 1:00 Dan Szymborski: I mean you can find JQ Adam’s grave unless he was cremated or something 1:00 Dan Szymborski: Adams’ 1:01 Dan Szymborski: Now, punching out an 1800s blacksmith? Considerably difficult. 1:01 Comment From Dr. Johnny Feverwhat’s the first thing you would change if you were the commissioner and had full fiat power? 1:01 Dan Szymborski: At least one day game every day. 1:01 Comment From daneykoJustin Bour is on fire. What to expect for him next season ? (with Stanton in the lineup) 1:01 Dan Szymborski: I woudln’t get overly excited 1:01 Comment From Pirates HurdlesCome on Dan the instructions themselves say “There is no clear-cut definition of what Most Valuable means.”. There is also stuff in their about “General character, disposition, loyalty and effort.” I guess Bryce is out after not hustling yesterday 1:02 Dan Szymborski: but the value part they do define 1:02 Dan Szymborski: And there ain’t nothing on team quality 1:02 Comment From Dr. Johnny FeverIt’s easier for you to punch a skeleton than for a skeleton to punch you. 1:02 Dan Szymborski: Yeah, that’s thet thing. 1:02 Dan Szymborski: OK, another slow week — this tends to happen in Septembers — so if you have anything off-topic, say it now or forever hold your peace 1:02 Comment From The+DudeThe Orioles have arguably the worst minor league system, and 7 players heading towards FA. Should they trade Machado and or Jones to basically get an entire minor league system in return? 1:03 Dan Szymborski: They should try to sign Machado first, but if they can’t do it soon, I think they should trade him and then Jones. 1:04 Comment From SirrasAny new PC games I shoud be looking into? 1:04 Dan Szymborski: There’s a cities skyline addon if you’re into that 1:04 Dan Szymborski: people are talkingj about undertale, but I don’t have it yet 1:05 Comment From MikeWhat AAA video game title are you most looking forward to for the next 3 months? 1:05 Dan Szymborski: Looking forward to Just Cause 3 1:06 Comment From Miggy AzaleaBest chance of being awesome (in MLB) in 2016 – Urias, Glasnow, Giolito? 1:06 Dan Szymborski: I think Urias 1:06 Comment From The+DudeYou said you thought Pittsburgh would win a WC game. Seeing how dominant Arrieta has been against the Pirates, doesn’t that give the Cubs a boost? 1:07 Dan Szymborski: Yeah but the Pirates have this guy named Edna Garrett or something that is pretty good 1:07 Comment From TomThe Cardinals will sign Heyward despite Grichuk and Piscotty and find a way to play them all. They are HYDRA. 1:07 Comment From the brainIf I wanted to make a request to a large number of people, what is the best way? 1:07 Dan Szymborski: Threatening communiqué to the UN? 1:07 Comment From EricSo Zach Britton at 78.3% is running the best GB% season of all measurable time, right? Kind of by a wide margin. Is this insane or is it just me? 1:07 Dan Szymborski: I think there’s at least one higher one 1:07 Comment From Phillies113If you were the pope, what would you do 1:07 Dan Szymborski: Get some papal pants. Robes are really awkward 1:08 Comment From The+DudeYou like the Dodgers, Dave Cameron thinks the Mets can hold their own against just about any team. The two of you get into a fist fight. Who wins? 1:08 Dan Szymborski: Thinking one team is better than the Mets doesn’t mean I don’t think the Mets can’t hold their own. 1:08 Dan Szymborski: Hold your own doesn’t necessarily mean favored. 1:08 Dan Szymborski: The Cubs can hold their own against the Pirates, too. 1:09 Comment From The+DudeDan, that was a flimsy set up to ask who would win in a fist fight, you or Dave Cameron. So who would win? 1:10 Dan Szymborski: Hard to tell. David’s not a drinker but I am, so I may be more willing to be aggressive foolish, but then again, David’s composure by not being inebriated might give him some finesse moves. 1:10 Comment From The+DudeAn army of 500 Trouts fights an army of 500 Harpers. No weapons, just bare hands. Who wins? 1:10 Dan Szymborski: I think Harper actually. 1:10 Comment From Dr. Johnny Feverfist fights are juvenile who can drink more, you or cameron? 1:10 Dan Szymborski: Oh, I’ll put myself into a drinking contest easily 1:11 Dan Szymborski: I’d lose to Chris Dial, but I would do well against most others 1:11 Comment From NealIf you were to fight 100 mini you’s. Who would win? 1:11 Dan Szymborski: How small are the mini me’s? It’s not linear, but at half size, I dont’ think I could take more than 3 mes. 1:12 Dan Szymborski: But if the mini mes were like anti-sized, I can stomp a whole lot 1:12 Comment From Dr. Johnny FeverJP Crawford going to make the Phils April roster? 1:12 Dan Szymborski: I believe so. 1:12 Comment From BigglesworthDodgers in a bit of a tailspin. Giants sweep would make things interesting. Any chance ? 1:12 Dan Szymborski: No. 1:12 Comment From The+DudeDoes Fangraphs get along with Baseball Reference, or are you competing with each other? 1:12 Dan Szymborski: I can’t speak for either group. 1:12 Dan Szymborski: But I’ve known both Sean Forman and Dave Cameron for going on 20 years. 1:13 Dan Szymborski: And I get along absolutely fine with both of them, as far as I know 1:13 Dan Szymborski: Now, I guess one or both think “Dan Szymborski, what a schmuck,” but I’m unaware of that so cannot include it when forming an opinion 1:14 Dan Szymborski: Oh, and in related drinking games, I’ve actually made hundreds of dollars in my lifetime from Milk Challenge bets. 1:14 Comment From NorthsiderDan’s Gut – Go eat a snickers. You act like a doofus when you’re hungry. 1:14 Dan Szymborski: I’m not listening to my gut – it’s the main case of me having to buy new pants. 1:14 Comment From War2d2Would you rather fight 100 duck-sized Dan Szymborskis or one horse-sized Dan Szymborski? 1:15 Dan Szymborski: 100 duck-sized Szymborskis and I’ll tell you why 1:15 Dan Szymborski: The duck sized Szymborskis would be too indecisive to swarm me and would attack black ninja style 1:15 Comment From JJJJShabadoDo you watch any British panel or game shows? (e.g. QI, Would I Lie to You?, Pointless, etc.) 1:15 Dan Szymborski: I’ve seen QI 1:15 Comment From Neal“Dan Symborski, what a schmuck”, name of your sex tape. 1:16 Dan Szymborski: The title of my sex tape would be “Dan Szymborski: Do not watch this unless you want your face to melt like that Nazi dude in Raiders of the Lost Ark. 1:16 Comment From Dr. Johnny FeverWhat team needs to be blown up but doesn’t know it yet? 1:16 Dan Szymborski: Might actually be the Orioles. I think the Reds and Rockies have at least some awareness. 1:16 Comment From earls ghostDan: my Klipsch computer speakers have finally bitten the dust. Music is almost as important to me as it is to you (I’m not a musician). Do you have a recommendation(s) to replace them? I can’t afford more than $250. 1:17 Dan Szymborski: For computer speakers? I don’t really have a recommendation. I don’t even *have* computer speakers. 1:18 Dan Szymborski: The headphones at my desk are ATH-m50x and that’s in your price range, but I don’t have recommendation for speakers 1:18 Comment From NealMore like face melting because of the sweet guitar riff’s you’d let off during it. 1:18 Dan Szymborski: I don’t even play guitar! I play piano though 1:18 Comment From The JokerTrue or false. The Dodgers are Better off without Puig in the playoffs. 1:18 Dan Szymborski: False. 1:19 Comment From Grand Admiral BraunSteve Carlton 1973: 20 losses and 4.5 WAR 1:19 Comment From Grand Admiral BraunSteve Carlton 1970: 10-19 with a 3.6 1:19 Comment From Grand Admiral BraunWith Shelby Miller in mind (5-17 W-L record but a 3.3 fWAR), I was wondering what the highest WAR number was for a player with the worst W-L record). 1:19 Dan Szymborski: Turk Farrell went 10-20 with 7 bWAR 1:20 Dan Szymborski: Ryan went 8-16 leading the league in ERA+ and 5.4 bWAR 1:20 Comment From RicoWhat are your feelings on Michael Conforto? Had he not lost rookie eligibility, where do you think we would see him on top prospect lists this offseason and how do you project him moving forward? 1:20 Dan Szymborski: I think he projects quite well going forward, though I don’t have it in front of me 1:21 Dan Szymborski: Jim Abbot 7-15, 5.8 bWAR. 1:21 Comment From SamWhere does Ian Desmond end up next year? (Club, position too if you don’t think SS) 1:21 Dan Szymborski: I think Padres do something stupid 1:21 Comment From MikeOut of Russell, Baez, Castro, and Coughlan, who would you start at SS/2B during the playoffs? 1:21 Dan Szymborski: Russell and Castro 1:22 Dan Szymborski: For all the complaining about Castro’s maturity, he took the benching like a champ and has bene a lot better since 1:22 Comment From RotoLandoHmmm…..20 dollars MIGHT be more valuable in the wallet of a drunk driver. If he/she gets into a fiery crash, and the 20 dollar bill is burned up, then that decreases the total supply of money in the economy, thus making my 20 dollars slightly more valuable. Thanks, you lush! 1:22 Comment From CM52You’ve known Dave Cameron for going on 20 years? I thought he was like 30? This sounds creepy. 1:22 Dan Szymborski: You know, he ages a year every year, dont’ you? 1:23 Dan Szymborski: I believe he’s 2 years younger than me. I’m 37 and I think he’s 35. 1:23 Dan Szymborski: We were the teenagers of rec.sport.baseball 1:23 Dan Szymborski: I actually stopped for a split second to verify in my brain that I’m still 37. 1:23 Comment From The+DudeThoughts on Severino? Is he a future ace, #2 starter, mid/end of the rotation or relief pitcher 1:23 Dan Szymborski: I think he has serious ace potential 1:24 Comment From GSon== just put a new set of Best Buy speakers (powered woofer and two speakers) on my system.. great sounds.. 1:24 Dan Szymborski: As I said, I have no help for computer speakers! 1:24 Dan Szymborski: OK, time to wrap it up. 1:24 Dan Szymborski: Thanks for coming everyone! I also appreciate the no terrible steroid arguments today. 1:24 Comment From The+DudeIt’s a little weird seeing an advertisement for a Makita 20-Inch Gas Chainsaw on Fangraphs. 1:25 Dan Szymborski: People on FanGraphs don’t need to clear small trees in their backyard? 1:25 Dan Szymborski: I chopped down a peach tree last year 1:25 Dan Szymborski: Now, the house’s previous owner had the peach tree 1:25 Dan Szymborski: BUT WHY ARE YOU PLANTING A PEACH TREE IN OHIO? 1:26 Dan Szymborski: I’m thinking of planting a hardy cherry tree though. 1:26 Comment From The+DudeWas the tree grass fed? 1:26 Dan Szymborski: I think it was fed by water and sunshine. 1:26 Dan Szymborski: It’s not like I was doing anything. 1:26 Dan Szymborski: The other trees seem to be staying alive well. 1:26 Comment From The+DudeWhy is your chat written by Carson Cistulli? 1:27 Dan Szymborski: I would never allow my chat to be written by THE WORST PERSON IN HUMAN EXISTENCE 1:27 Comment From RogerAre you talking to yourself? 1:27 Dan Szymborski: I’m not convinced you guys aren’t all multiple personaltiies asking questions on my laptop 1:27 Comment From The+Gyorko+Store+CalledYesterday, I used a pruning chainsaw to cut a large branch of a fig tree 1:27 Dan Szymborski: Figs are such an udnerrated fruit 1:27 Dan Szymborski: OK, thanks for coming everybody 1:28 Dan Szymborski: Remember, you can find me at ESPN.com, chats and projections here at fangraphs, and DSzymborski on Twitter. 1:28 Comment From The+DudeApples are overrated 1:28 Dan Szymborski: No, I think apples are rated.