Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
New York AL at Atlanta | 13:35 ET
Eovaldi (144.0 IP, 97 xFIP-) vs. Teheran (157.1 IP, 105 xFIP-)
Last Monday, Eno Sarris examined in these pages the development of right-hander Nathan Eovaldi’s splitter, a pitch that — following a disaster start at Miami in June — Eovaldi began to throw roughly 4 mph harder than previously but also with the same amount of drop. That same evening as Sarris’s post, Eovaldi proceeded to record a higher usage rate with the splitter than with his fastball (while also throwing that same fastball at an average velocity of 98-99 mph). The results: the highest single-game whiff rate of Eovaldi’s season and also 8.0 shutout innings. This afternoon’s game against Atlanta — facilitated by Atlanta’s excellent center-field camera — represents an opportunity to observe Eovaldi’s transformation.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Atlanta Radio.

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Episode 590
Kiley McDaniel is both (a) the lead prospect analyst for FanGraphs and also (b) the guest on this particular edition of FanGraphs Audio — during which edition he discusses the curious treatment by the Washington Nationals of prospect Trea Turner, the uses and not-uses of big-league scouts, and McDaniel’s dramatic re-assessment of right-handed Houston prospect Francis Martes.

This edition of the program is sponsored by Draft, the first truly mobile fantasy sports app. Compete directly against idiot host Carson Cistulli by clicking here.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 55 min play time.)

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
New York AL at Atlanta | 19:10 ET
Severino (23.0 IP, 90 xFIP-) vs. Wisler (64.2 IP, 127 xFIP-)
When observing the New York Yankees, one is observing a club afflicted by uncertainty. When observing Luis Severino, meanwhile, one is observing a pitcher engorged by talent. It’s a sort of litmus test — with which, of the two, one finds him- or herself identifying. Only one choice is sane, however.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Atlanta Radio.

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Detroit at Toronto | 19:07 ET
Boyd (30.2 IP, 126 xFIP-) vs. Dickey (167.0 IP, 122 xFIP-)
The current edition of this daily futile exercise features a bold and fresh amendment to the (now less) haphazardly derived algorithm utilized by the author to produce the NERD scores one finds below. Concerned reader John suggested a subtle but powerful revision to the calculation yesterday with a view to more accurately representing the state of those teams (like the Cubs) who, while technically featuring roughly a 50% probability of reaching the divisional series, aren’t actually competing in particularly high-leverage games at the moment (because they’ve basically clinched a wild-card spot but have no real chance of winning their division). The results of that suggestion appear below. Note the Cubs’ score, for instance, which drops from 10 to 5 as a result of the alteration. The Blue Jays and Yankees feature the league’s highest team scores, meanwhile, on account how their seasons are currently riddled with uncertainty.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Detroit or Toronto Radio.

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The author realized only after press time that Houston right-hander Michael Feliz actually appeared on John Sickels’ mid-season prospect update, thus technically rendering him (Feliz, not Sickels) ineligible for the Five. That he’s a promising talent remains true; that he’s a fringe one, however, is harder to argue.

The Fringe Five is a weekly regular-season exercise, introduced a couple years ago by the present author, wherein that same author utilizes regressed stats, scouting reports, and also his own fallible intuition to identify and/or continue monitoring the most compelling fringe prospects in all of baseball.

Central to the exercise, of course, is a definition of the word fringe, a term which possesses different connotations for different sorts of readers. For the purposes of the column this year, a fringe prospect (and therefore one eligible for inclusion in the Five) is any rookie-eligible player at High-A or above both (a) absent from the most current iteration of Kiley McDaniel’s top-200 prospect list and (b) absent from the midseason prospect lists produced by Baseball America, Keith Law, and John Sickels, and also (c) not currently playing in the majors. Players appearing anywhere on McDaniel’s updated prospect list or, otherwise, selected in the first round of the current season’s amateur draft will also be excluded from eligibility.

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Chicago NL at San Francisco | 15:45 ET
Haren (148.1 IP, 119 xFIP-) vs. Bumgarner (169.2 IP, 78 xFIP-)
Within the haphazardly derived algorithm used to calculated NERD team scores, the expression intended to represent the “urgency” or perhaps “leverage” of a club’s season — the expression relies on that same club’s divisional-series playoff odds. The closer those odds are to 50% — thereby suggesting greater uncertainty regarding the outcome of their season — the higher the NERD score for the relevant team.

As multiple concerned readers have noted, however, the method isn’t perfect. The Chicago Cubs, for example, possess almost precisely a 50% chance of qualifying for the divisional series at the moment. What they also possess, though, is basically zero probability of winning their division. The Cubs have, essentially, clinched a wild-card spot at this point — and, as such, it’s probably fair to say that their odds of reaching the divisional series (again, at 50%) aren’t reflective of great urgency. Unfortunately, to improve the algorithm at this point would require a close working relationship with tedium, a state which — not unlike polio or carpeting — ought to be eradicated posthaste.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Almost All of Them.

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Houston at New York AL | 13:05 ET
McHugh (159.0 IP, 100 xFIP-) vs. Pineda (118.0 IP, 71 xFIP-)
On the edition of FanGraphs Audio released this actual morning, the author mentioned that a friend of his — the sort of friend, specifically, who’s had two children over the last four years and whose relationship with the Pastime has suffered duly — would be attending today’s Astros-Yankees game. What follows is a brief collection of statements designed to provide context for a spectator of that same contest who also has no idea what’s going on.

• Both the Astros and Yankees currently possess better than a 50% chance of reaching the divisional series.
• New York’s success has been facilitated in no small part by the unexpectedly robust contributions of Alex Rodriguez and Mark Teixeira.
• Houston’s success, meanwhile, has been facilitated largely by players who are 25 and under.
• Yes, seriously, the Astros.
• By multiple standards, Houston and New York both possess among the top bullpens in the league, if that’s interesting at all.
• Probably avoid staring directly into Carlos Correa’s extraordinary talent.
• You might never return.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Houston Television.

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Episode 589
Dave Cameron is both (a) the managing editor of FanGraphs and (b) the guest on this particular edition of FanGraphs Audio, during which edition he discusses this past weekend’s Saberseminar in Boston, the quality and quantity of Statcast data, and one of Curt Schilling’s less horrifying — but also recent — comments.

This edition of the program is sponsored by Draft, the first truly mobile fantasy sports app. Compete directly against idiot host Carson Cistulli by clicking here.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 39 min play time.)

Read the rest of this entry »

Podcast: Play in new window | Download

Subscribe: RSS

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Chicago NL at San Francisco | 22:15 ET
Arrieta (168.0 IP, 74 xFIP-) vs. Cain (47.2 IP, 123 xFIP-)
At some point during his 2006 conversation with Ricky Gervais — or actually maybe during another conversation with a different person in a different year — professional misanthrope Larry David claims that he regrets immediately every commitment he makes as soon has he’s made it. Every future obligation represents not an opportunity for David, but rather a looming nightmare, the prospect of which weighs heavily on his mind until it’s either fulfilled or, preferably, canceled.

David’s apprehension towards the future isn’t irrelevant to the Chicago Cubs’ current situation within the developing postseason landscape. As noted by a reader here yesterday, the club possesses simultaneously a high probability of qualifying for the postseason while, simultaneously, almost no chance of winning the NL Central. They are, in other words, almost certain to appear in the one-game wild-card playoff. So while the club’s remaining regular-season games aren’t precisely immaterial, they appear to have little consequence relative to the appointment the Cubs have made for Wednesday, October 7.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Basically All of Them?

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