Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 8/24/15

12:01
Dan Szymborski: OMG WE ACTUALLY HAVE A DAY GAME ON MONDAY

12:02
Dan Szymborski: Welcome to the Dan Szymborski Weekly FanGraphs Chat, where lifes gives you lemons but you keep them because lemons are frigging awesome and you can brighten a dish with acid much better than a lot of times when people add salt!

12:02
Comment From hscer
1. d4 – are we playing with or without a board? http://gameknot.com/analyze…

12:02
Dan Szymborski: Let’s do this next week!

12:03
Dan Szymborski: But off-topic Qs, let’s keep them from the Lightning Round. We have to have an hour of normalcy before the insanity starts.

12:03
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12:03
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12:03
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12:04
Comment From Xolo
Melvin Upton has a higher WAR in a third of a season in San Diego than he did in two in Atlanta. SSS or might he be a change of scenery guy?

12:04
Dan Szymborski: SSS to an extent, but I’ve said I still think he can be an above-replacement role player.

12:05
Comment From CHATMAN
DAN YOU’RE 2 MINUTES LATE

12:05
Dan Szymborski: A Szymborski is never late, nor is he early, he arrives precisely when he means to.

12:05
Comment From FireJackZ
How is that a Gm like JackZ still has a job?Seems to show that ownership isn’t really interested in winning.

12:05
Dan Szymborski: I think he might get axed this offseason.

12:06
Comment From Avi Miller
My first *live* Szym chat! Missed your presence at Saber Seminar this weekend. Extraordinary first time going for me – definitely will be back next year.

12:06
Dan Szymborski: All the other ones are dead.

12:06
Dan Szymborski: Yeah, I’m horrible at planning. I really need an intern or something.

12:06
Dan Szymborski: True story: The reason I was not credentialed for the All-Star Game? Forgot to ask.

12:06
Comment From Gary
I’m curious why anyone thinks Giolito is better than Julio Urias. He’s put up better numbers at each level while being two years younger than him; am I missing something?

12:07
Dan Szymborski: Are there people making that argument? I love Giolito, but I’d take Urias first. Urias is the #1 pitching prospect in baseball.

12:07
Comment From Somerville Phil
I have decided to change my name and the names of all of my children and pets to Jackie. My wife thinks this is premature. Your thoughts?

12:08
Dan Szymborski: A bit so. He was prematurely underrated and now prematurely overrated

12:08
Comment From Kevin
Does Manny Machado end his career with his only major league attempt at SS being an error?

12:08
Dan Szymborski: I think he’ll at least make some appearance at short again.

12:10
Dan Szymborski: Now sadly, in the O’s eyes, I expect that the moving him back to SS thing has sailed, reached its destination, the tourists got home, their postcards came in the mail, they’ve gone back to work, and they’ve returned into a spiral of depression after realizing that the problems in their life did not go away on vacation they were always there but just avoided for a couple weeks and they’re trapped in a marriage that is now mostly for convenience than any real passion and they wish they weren’t stuck in middle management for a car company that had upper management that didn’t care about the opinions of regional managers but they hope to hang on just long enough to get the small pension granted as the company wente to mostly 401k about 7 years ago.

12:11
Dan Szymborski: So I do think he’ll get a successful play at shortstop at some point

12:11
Comment From pheven
Do you think the current pitching paradigm is optimal? 5-7 innings for a starter, 1-3 relievers finish the game? Or is there a more efficient method that would extract the most from a team’s pitching corps? (ie 3 innings per pitcher every 3 days)

12:11
Dan Szymborski: 3 innings per pitcher every 3 days leaves you in a rather rigid scheme

12:12
Dan Szymborski: I don’t think the way starters are used is necessarily suboptimal, but I think bullpen usage is

12:12
Comment From Brandon
Are you in or out on the Rangers making the playoffs?

12:13
Dan Szymborski: Probably the favorite simply by having the narrow edge right now. In a mass of very similar middling teams, possession is 9/10 of the law.

12:13
Comment From Herrr
Over/Under 5 Commentators who fumble Kike Hernandez ‘s name?

12:13
Dan Szymborski: That’s why we need to make sure to type Kiké so there isn’t the same sort of awkward pause like poor Ethan Faggett.

12:13
Comment From hscer
Who did Hayes beat in the last round?

12:14
Dan Szymborski: I believe he beat Reagan.

12:14
Dan Szymborski: Unfortunately, Hayes is mostly remembered now for the ’76 election

12:15
Dan Szymborski: Hayes was a total badass, so sorry to see his poll so low today.

12:15
Dan Szymborski: At south mountain, he got shot in the arm while leading a charge and it shattered his arm, so he got someone to give him a tourniquet and resumed the charge

12:16
Dan Szymborski: He was shot like 4 times during the civil war

12:16
Comment From Tom
How much should the Mets expect from David Wright the rest of the way?

12:16
Dan Szymborski: Whatever they get is gravy.

12:16
Dan Szymborski: He hasn’t been good *and* healthy for awhile

12:16
Comment From Kevin
Did you see that Randy Fucking Wolf started a major league game?! For a real team?! Is this a preview of things to come for Tiger’s fans?

12:17
Dan Szymborski: The Tigers holes eventually caught up with them. Every time they traded off depth for now, they made the downside worse.

12:17
Comment From Mr. Wrestling IV
I’m back, jerk-ass

12:17
Comment From Mike
Dan, does ZIPS know how many games this August 24 version of the Jays would be projected to win over 162 games?

12:17
Dan Szymborski: I think it was like a .555 team.

12:18
Comment From Aaron Mathews
Have you formed an opinion of the job Jeff Banister has done/is doing as a manager?

12:18
Dan Szymborski: Banister is someone who doesn’t elicit a lot of feelings from me about his stint so far.

12:19
Dan Szymborski: Nothing really stands out to me yet as notably good or bad

12:19
Comment From Art Vandelay
Reyes make it through the season in Colorado? It’d be tough to trade him because he’d almost certainly be claimed, right?

12:19
Dan Szymborski: He cleared waviers.

12:19
Dan Szymborski: waivers.

12:19
Dan Szymborski: There’s no reason to claim him on waivers.

12:20
Dan Szymborski: Reyes is owed a minimum of 2/48 after this season. That’s negative value.

12:21
Dan Szymborski: Someone claiming him off waivers from you and you giving to them is like free $10-$20 million.

12:21
Comment From FireJackZ
What is with the Mariner’s infatuation of moving infielder’s to the OF every season? Why not trade the IF for a proven OF talent?

12:21
Dan Szymborski: it’s a reflection of a rather haphazard front office

12:21
Comment From Kevin
The AL WC game is likely going to be the most lopsided since they expanded the field right? Does any team actually want that 2nd spot?

12:21
Dan Szymborski: Meh – there’s only so much lopsided on baseball game can be

12:23
Comment From Frank
Is there a good place or website to buy cheap minor league baseball hats? I want to spend around $15 on one not the $35 I’ve seen everywhere else

12:23
Dan Szymborski: Well, the stadium.

12:23
Dan Szymborski: Minor league hats are more of a specialty thing so you tend to pay a little more

12:24
Comment From Robert
Do you see Kole Calhoun as someone you would extend? Or is he a year-to-year guy since his skill set might not get big arb #s and he was an older rookie?

12:24
Dan Szymborski: Anybody who has value is someone I would seek to extend as there’s always a good price for an extension (and always a bad one)

12:25
Comment From Joe
Reds will be competitive in 20__?

12:25
Dan Szymborski: months after a clean sweep of their front office and ownership pledging not to be involved?

12:25
Dan Szymborski: (would probably need 30 or so, but 20 six-week periods seemed like cheating

12:25
Comment From Every Ms Fan
It’s really good that Rodney was DFA’d. It really was the right time with the Mariners being right in the chase for the playoffs.

12:27
Dan Szymborski: It’s like shutting the barn door after the horse got out, mated with a neighbor’s mare, the offspring wins the Kentucky Derby, and a despondent farmer after losing the court case to get his share of the proceeds burns down the farm, is arrested for arson, and goes to jail where he’s shivved by a member of the aryan brotherhood for not keistering some heroin for them.

12:27
Comment From Mr. Wrestling IV
Is Kris Medlen worth a speculative add? He seems not broken (currently)

12:27
Dan Szymborski: I believe so.

12:27
Comment From Guest
First affirmative action, now this domestic violence nonsense. Is Rob Manfred running for president on the democratic ticket?

12:27
Dan Szymborski: Heh.

12:28
Dan Szymborski: I’ll refrain from political commentary, but I’m not sure why the MLBPA agreed to this. While it’s reasonable for them to lay out terms and negotiate with MLB, giving the commissioner authority of no maximum is absolutely idiotic. An arbitration appeal is a thin protection.

12:28
Comment From FireJackZ
Donaldson or Trout for MVP?

12:29
Dan Szymborski: Quite close.

12:29
Comment From hscer
okay, next week. begin chat with poll on who will win (or draw). the people will have no data!

12:29
Comment From Xolo
Will Byung Ho Park hit enough in the US to justify his marvelous bat flipping abilities?

12:30
Dan Szymborski: He would hit at least decently in MLB. KBO’s lower than NPB, but more like AA than anything. A guy with an 1100 OPS in AA, even in a hitter’s league, is still likely an interesting prospect

12:30
Dan Szymborski: The offense in KBO does have to be taken into consideration of course – last I checked the league ERA was right around 5 again

12:30
Comment From Dave Dombrowskis Ghost
See that, Mr. Ilitch? You chase me out of town and now Daniel Norris and Anibal Sanchez are both functionally dead. You think Randy Wolf is gonna save you? BWAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!

12:30
Comment From @RationalMLBfan
Eric Balfour would play Jeff Samardzija in a movie, and Jeff Samardzija would play Cardinal Richelieu in a movie.

12:30
Comment From Mr. Wrestling IV
Did you watch SS last night? Jon Stewart reminds us again why non-athletes should not be put in a wrestling ring

12:30
Dan Szymborski: Oops, that’s for the off topic

12:31
Dan Szymborski: Yeah, but I like Jon Stewart. I only live-tweet a couple wrestling events a year because I bleed teoo many followers

12:31
Comment From Minty
Are the Dodgers and Nats actually better off if they miss they playoffs and can their managers?

12:31
Dan Szymborski: Well, th ebest would be they make the playoffs and canned their managers

12:31
Comment From Real
So that Angels/Jays series….what would you say to make Angels fans feel better about their team?

12:32
Dan Szymborski: You have Mike Trout for a very long time.

12:32
Comment From hscer
that’s like the Nats with Harper in center

12:32
Comment From hscer
(even though Harper did get to play there in ’12)

12:32
Comment From robert
For all the talk of the red sox being loaded with young talent, none of their players look better than merely average. Am I missing something?

12:33
Dan Szymborski: Bogaerts is just 22 and having a really nice season. Very happy to see after last year’s mixed campaign. (His glove’s been reasonable too)

12:33
Dan Szymborski: Betts is clearly an above-average player now.

12:33
Dan Szymborski: Bradley’s good enough defensively that his success *is* extremely good news

12:34
Dan Szymborski: Swihart was rushed but he’s been finally playing well

12:34
Dan Szymborski: The Red Sox *do* have a long of positives about their young players and Red Sox fans are talking about them for obvious reasons – I mean, would you prefer to talk about the years Rick Porcello and Joe Kelly had?

12:35
Comment From Blerg
Are the Braves the worst team in baseball right now?

12:35
Dan Szymborski: Naw, still the Phillies

12:35
Comment From MSW
Can’t we just call him Enrique?

12:35
Comment From hscer
Tilden the only guy to “lose” an election with a majority (not plurality) of the vote

12:35
Comment From hscer
wait, Jackson 1824 won like 52% didn’t he? I should know this

12:35
Dan Szymborski: Jackson did not have a majority, just a pluraility

12:36
Dan Szymborski: Clay and Crawford got like a quarte rof the votes

12:36
Comment From Hoff
After Donaldson and the Jays torched Trout’s Angels this weekend, and Toronto in first place, Josh has to be leading the AL MVP race, right?

12:36
Dan Szymborski: In voters eyes, probably. I think I was asked whta *I* thought

12:36
Comment From simpson
All: We are the mediocre presidents.
You won’t find our faces on dollars or on cents!
There’s Taylor, there’s Tyler,
There’s Fillmore and there’s Hayes.
There’s William Henry Harrison,
Harrison: I died in thirty days!
All: We… are… the…
Adequate, forgettable,
Occasionally regrettable
Caretaker presidents of the U-S-A!

12:36
Comment From Phil
More seriously on Jackie: what’s your take on the playing time question? Most Bostonians seem to believe that harm is done by platooning him with Castillo and Ramirez. Do young players need to play every day to develop?

12:36
Dan Szymborski: I would prefer young players to play every day.

12:37
Dan Szymborski: Platooning is better in win now mode, when you want to maximize now wins. That is not the Red Sox situation

12:38
Dan Szymborski: Ryan Klesko always had a large platoon split, but it didn’t shrink enough for him to not be platooned until they tried not platooning him

12:38
Dan Szymborski: If the Red Sox were a game behind in the wild card, I’d consider platoons for young players if the situation called for it. Now? No.

12:38
Comment From Mr. Wrestling IV
Fun Randy Wolf fact, ESPN’s “current” Randy Wolf headshot was from his stint with the Orioles in 2012

12:39
Comment From Kris
the machado as sad tourist metaphor might be your greatest rant yet

12:39
Comment From hscer
wolfra01 on BR is Ray Wolf (1904-79), who was retired in his only career PA, in the first game of a doubleheader on July 27, 1927. Randy Wolf is wolfra02

12:39
Comment From Matt
For the love of god, please trade Reyes. Someone, please please take him.

12:39
Comment From Avi Miller
Thoughts on Red Sox keeping both Vasquez and Swihart heading into 2016?

12:39
Dan Szymborski: Pretty good, I think Boston tends to keep options open

12:39
Comment From Guest
Does “making the playoffs” mean what it once did with the one-game WC, or has it become more nuanced? I don’t know how amped I’d get because my team “made the playoffs” and was bounced after one game.

12:39
Dan Szymborski: 20 teams don’t even get that.

12:40
Dan Szymborski: Winning a division is of course significantly better.

12:40
Dan Szymborski: So there *is* kind of like a tiered feeling about the playoffs. Which is good – winning the division should be more important than winnin ga wild card

12:40
Dan Szymborski: Essentially, the wild card has made, to some extent, seeds actually matter.

12:40
Comment From The Big Dipper
I know you don’t drink coffee, but doesn’t the way Stephen Piscotty is playing make you want to dunk him in a nice cup of joe??

12:41
Dan Szymborski: That sounds a little sexual

12:41
Dan Szymborski: True story, my grandfather would always dip donuts in his coffee. One morning I was there and he was drinking beer in a coffee mug and he was still dipping a donut in it.

12:42
Dan Szymborski: I was all like “Opa, you’re dipping your donut in beer!” He looks at it, shrugs and says “It’s moisture” and resumed dipping his donut in beer.

12:42
Comment From hscer
it’s very dangerous to waive at someone because what if they don’t have a hand

12:42
Comment From KJ
I haven’t seen much praise for him, but looking at stats, Aaron Altherr looks like a pretty good player in a pretty inept phillies OF. Any insight?

12:43
Dan Szymborski: Altherr was one of those guys that was kinda interesting then he had that awful 2014 (like Franco did too). But he’s been back on track this year

12:43
Dan Szymborski: I don’t think he’ll ever be a star, but he’s young and kinda interesting. When you’re a Phillie, being young and kinda interesting makes you a real asset

12:43
Comment From Art Vandelay
Wolf, Marcum, and Greinke having the slow-pitch contest is my favorite Randy Wolf memory. (Article by FanGraphs own Jeff Sullivan!) http://www.sbnation.com/201…

12:43
Comment From Blue Cat
Banister has generated a lot of local opinion on his bullpen management and then seemingly ham fisted attempts to justify his actions

12:43
Dan Szymborski: Every local team hates their manager’s bullpen use. I don’t see Banister’s as particularly awful or good

12:44
Dan Szymborski: In the first year or two, it’s easier to pick out the egregiously bad managers than the extremely good ones

12:44
Dan Szymborski: Because a lot of the good managers are good because of the long-term stability they foster and their longer-term decision making, which you can’t really see in 1 year

12:44
Dan Szymborski: But an awful manager can reallY @#%# things up in one year

12:45
Dan Szymborski: I think it took about 2 weeks for everyone in Baltimore to tire of Ray Miller

12:45
Comment From CSA
Do the Astros with a healthy Springer give the Blue Jays and Royals a run for their money as the best team in the AL?

12:46
Dan Szymborski: I think the Blue Jays are better than the Royals (obviously wont’ finish with a better record). Astros *could* be, but I think they’d be an underdog still, even if I like what they’ve done

12:46
Comment From Guest
If no one’s claiming Reyes on waivers, does that mean COL took on a burden to have the honor of swapping Tulo for two RP prospects and a high-variance arm?

12:46
Dan Szymborski: I like the prospects a little more than you

12:46
Dan Szymborski: But yes, the Rockies took Reyes in order to get better prospects. But to be honest, I’m not sure the Rockies actually realize that he’s a negative acquisition.

12:46
Comment From Phil
How does Rick Peterson still have a job? When will everyone finally get on board with the O’s pitcher development, (and to an extent its recent drafting), being perhaps the single most cumulative impact on their current lack of any bright future? The farm system is bad, but they are like kryptonite to any good pitching prospect.

12:47
Dan Szymborski: He fixed Victor Zambrano in 15 minutes!

12:48
Dan Szymborski: Or was it 10 minutes?

12:48
Dan Szymborski: Probably should have put in a whole hour.

12:49
Dan Szymborski: My analysis of that trade at the time:

New York Mets – Do a whole bunch of stupid shit

New York Mets – Wish that GM Jim Duquette would go back to Plan A of acquiring 10,000 minor league relievers.

Remember the episode of Mr. Belvedere in which everyone’s favorite English butler brained Bob Uecker with a golf club and flayed the face of that annoying little Wesley kid? No? Oh, that’s because even the producers of Mr. Belvedere had a line of stupidity that they wouldn’t cross, an understanding of the difference in producing a terrible show week-in and week-out and a terrible, insulting, disgusting show week-in and week-out.

12:49
Comment From Neal
The Jays are going to have a billion (give or take) outfielders next year. Who gets traded? I can see Saunders being a non-tender but other than that it’s a big question mark.

12:49
Dan Szymborski: I think they’re going to use the OFs as flexibility

12:49
Comment From The Big Dipper
Who is your fall guy?

12:49
Dan Szymborski: Lee Majors forever, baby.

12:49
Comment From Guest
Reports from my twitter feed: Two men planned to use a drone to get drugs and porn into a prison, authorities say

12:50
Dan Szymborski: Seems reasonable.

12:50
Dan Szymborski: Better use of a drone than taking video of your crap skiing.

12:50
Comment From FireJackZ
If you were going to pick an AL MVP HS card, would you take the Donaldson card or Trout?

12:50
Dan Szymborski: That’s a good idea for a card. Druid.

12:50
Comment From Mr. Wrestling IV
Are you saying there could be an untapped market for bootlegged minor league baseball caps?

12:50
Dan Szymborski: Too niche

12:50
Comment From TKDC
LBJ weighed 210 like Prince Fielder weighs 275.

12:51
Comment From Julio Pepper
You know anything about this guy Shoehei Otani? I’ve heard good things.

12:51
Dan Szymborski: Actually know more about Shinjiro Otani

12:52
Dan Szymborski: (tHAT’S A JOKE)

12:52
Dan Szymborski: I want to see Otani in MLB *now*

12:53
Dan Szymborski: I think he has a good enough bat to seriously get some WAR value as a pitcher

12:53
Dan Szymborski: Zambrano had 6 career offensive WAR with an OPS+ of something like 65. Otani can hit better than that, though I’m not sure if he’d be Wes Ferrell God Status.

12:54
Dan Szymborski: I think he’ll have success pitching too (obviously). His fastball is insane and he’s kind of an MLB-style pitcher – he goes after batters aggressively.

12:54
Dan Szymborski: NPB is still nibbler-friendly moreso than MLB is

12:54
Comment From Phillies113
I was perusing Baseball Prospectus’s pitch framing stats today for the first time in a while. I couldn’t help but notice that fellas like Yan Gomes, Brian McCann, and Jonathan Lucroy, who’d all rated quite highly in the past, are now in and around the bottom third in the majors in pitch framing. Any idea what the cause(s) could be?

12:55
Dan Szymborski: We’re still figuring out how volatile the measure is. That’s why when I project pitch framing as part of DR for catchers, it’s *extremely* conservative – nobody’s projected to be +10 or -10 and I think only a few +5 or -5

12:55
Comment From Julio Pepper
Do WAR calculations peg 10 runs == 1 WAR? If so, wouldn’t that understate the value of players today, due to lower run environments?

12:55
Dan Szymborski: No, they’re more like 9.1-9.3. They change. It’s just useful shorthand.

12:56
Dan Szymborski: It’s just that only guys like Trout is it a big enough deal to even notice.

12:56
Comment From Guest
what does it all mean?

12:56
Dan Szymborski: It’s just for the moment that we live.

12:56
Comment From mtsw
Have you considered creating separate projections (or splitting what’s presented) into starts and relief appearances? It’s very difficult to look at say, Logan Verrett’s projections and know what the system expects from him when he gets a spot start.

12:57
Dan Szymborski: While *I* can do that internally, I try to keep things simple.

12:57
Dan Szymborski: For presentation purposes.

12:57
Dan Szymborski: Trust me, I *still* spend tons of time trying to explain, in an exasperated fashion, basic stuff.

12:57
Dan Szymborski: Like the YOU ONLY HAVE 3 PEOPLE PROJECTED TO HIT .300 BA BUT LIKE 20 GUYS DO THAT EVERY YEAR LOLCOPTER ZIPS

12:58
Dan Szymborski: And then I try to explain “ZiPS only sees 3 people that are more likely to beat .300 than not, but with dozens of guys in the 20% to 50% range, ZiPS projects on aveage 25 guys will”

12:59
Dan Szymborski: And then the response THAT DOESNT MAKE SENSE, MOSTLY BECAUSE THE MATH FOR POETS THAT I TOOK IN HIGH SCHOOL WAS ALGEBRA INSTEAD OF PROBSTAT EVEN THOUGH THE LATTER IS THE MOST RELEVANT FOR PEOPLE IN THEIR DAILY LIVES

12:59
Comment From The Mighty Truffle
better defensive presence: 68 yr old Carlos Santana or his rheumatic namesake?

12:59
Dan Szymborski: heh

1:00
Comment From mtsw
Baltimore done? Am I wrong to think they basically have to win two games for every loss going forward to have a chance at the postseason?

1:00
Dan Szymborski: They’re not done, but I’m not overly enthused. My O’s feeling-o-meter is fairly low in the yellow territory, though not red

1:00
Comment From Hareeb al-Saq
Why do the various PAs keep agreeing to give the commissioner complete authority over various disciplinary matters with basically zero guidelines or limits? It’s not like we haven’t just seen some, uh, major-league tard-offs in recent times with A-Rod and Ray Rice and the total farce with Brady in court.

1:00
Dan Szymborski: Because various PAs are chickenshit.

1:01
Dan Szymborski: Today’s MLBPA doesn’t always realize that the big money they get today is *because* the previous generation fought tooth and nail for freedom and that it’s not something that’s written in stone tablets

1:01
Comment From The Big Dipper
I want to slap your butt cheeks

1:01
Dan Szymborski: Wait, what?

1:01
Comment From Walt Jocketty
Hey Dan! Can you fire up your ZiPS machine and let me know what a good price on a Skip Schumaker extension looks like?

1:02
Dan Szymborski: Well, that’s easy. Just take Mr. Burns’s final offer when the SImpsons sued him for Bart getting hit by a car

1:02
Comment From Brian
What do you make of Joc Pederson’s fall from grace? How much stock do you put in him ROS?

1:02
Dan Szymborski: He’ll be fine. I *told* you guys the BA would collapse.

1:02
Comment From Deez Nuts
…will make America great again

1:02
Comment From Connor
Can Hanley play first or is that a pipe dream?

1:03
Dan Szymborski: I’d say yes, but even though I cautioned people to not get too crazy about his defense in left, I thought he’d at least be able to not be Todd Hundley

1:03
Comment From mtsw
Has Kevin Gausman finally arrived? His turnaround seems predicated on him basically never throwing breaking pitches anymore. Can he be a successful starter long term as a strictly fastball/changeup guy?

1:03
Dan Szymborski: I think he still needs to have a bigger toolbox, though it’s hard to work on that in-season

1:04
Comment From Didi
What would Franklin Gutierrez’s career look like had he not been so damn unlucky with injuries?

1:04
Dan Szymborski: Devon Whiish

1:04
Dan Szymborski: Whitish

1:04
Comment From Kevin
Why on earth is Hanley Ramirez still playing the outfield?

1:04
Dan Szymborski: it allows the red sox to claim a tax credit in massachusetts for performers of a vaudeville nature.

1:05
Dan Szymborski: OK, I made that up. But still, the spirit of Massachusetts is the spirit of America, the spirit of what’s old and what’s new.

1:05
Comment From Brett W
On Projected Standings, for each of the 2 leagues, shouldn’t the sum of every team’s DOFF equal the sum of every team’s DIV plus 1/2 WC? It appears there is a greater than 1% chance no one wins the Wild Card game, according to the projection.

1:05
Dan Szymborski: I don’t know – i dont’ calculate it.

1:06
Dan Szymborski: Again, you need to send FG-related questions to someone who’s not me. Ideally a David.

1:06
Dan Szymborski: Well, not Wiers, a very bad man who thinks 2fort is a good TF2 map.

1:06
Comment From Guest
Is Ruben Amaro’s final fireable offense that he may not secure the first-round draft pick despite an awful 2015 season?

1:07
Dan Szymborski: It’s not like he didn’t make the team suck for lack of trying. If the Phillies don’t suck enough, it’s on the players at this point

1:07
Comment From FireJackZ
Was doing some research and came across some stats that seemed to state that prospect’s even First round prospect’s only have around a 10% success rate, success being 2-3 War player…your thoughts?

1:08
Dan Szymborski: Are you sure you’re getting the methodology right? 3 first-rounders a year having 2-3 WAR in career is a bit low

1:08
Dan Szymborski: 2010 had Sale/Harper/Machado/Harvey/Yelich/Grandal/Pomeranz

1:09
Dan Szymborski: 2009 had Trout/Strasburg/Pollock/Miller/Leake/Richards/Hosmer

1:09
Dan Szymborski: No wait, was Hosmer 2009?

1:09
Dan Szymborski: No, 2008

1:09
Comment From Guest
donde en el mundo es carlos zambrano?

1:10
Dan Szymborski: Well, as a wealthy player in Venezuela, probably on a NIcolas Maduro enemies list

1:10
Comment From Elam
Graveman likely out for the season. It’s confirmed – God hates A’s

1:10
Comment From hscer
I should write a community blog post instead of asking this, but historically what does it take for a manager to be fired after making the playoffs?

1:10
Dan Szymborski: The ire of Peter Angelos?

1:11
Dan Szymborski: OK, we’re at 1:10 now. So let’s get the Lightning Round flowing.

1:11
Dan Szymborski: Congrats to LBJ for making the Final Four! Despite a relatively low seeding.

1:12
Dan Szymborski: The rules of the Lightning Round are simple: I must answer every off-topic question, no matter the topic, with the few obvious exceptions (explicit things, work-related matters)

1:12
Comment From Art Vandelay
Are the GT cards being added to the Arena? I’ve gone 1-9 in my last 3 tries and I could probably stand to mix things up a bit.

1:12
Dan Szymborski: They will be. For GvG they added them to arena a week early, but not this time

1:12
Comment From KJ
Hear the new Destroyer record on NPR yet? Pretty great on first pass. Also, Kela or Caminero ROS for holds/rate stats?

1:12
Dan Szymborski: I have not. Bejar is one of those guys that his best stuff, I’m not sure if I love it or hate it.

1:12
Comment From Guest
I’d have pegged you as a guy who liked chickenshit unions, Szymborski.

1:13
Dan Szymborski: I’m a libertarian – I believe in free association.

1:13
Dan Szymborski: I’m even against right-to-work – if a private company wants to make a decision to make a specific union the sole provider of their employees, that’s none of my business

1:13
Comment From Jon
is TGT out yet

1:14
Dan Szymborski: It might be now! I’m going to open some packs after the stream if it’s open

1:14
Dan Szymborski: It *is* out now.

1:14
Dan Szymborski: So I will be doing a live stream after this.

1:14
Comment From Guest
Should Dave Cameron consider pitcher hitting when casting his vote for the Cy Young?

1:14
Dan Szymborski: I think so – it’s part of the player

1:14
Comment From Guest
What are the rules regarding who can and cannot say America is not great?

1:14
Dan Szymborski: None.

1:14
Comment From Guest
I want to check your butte slaps

1:15
Comment From hscer
favorite one-liner-based comedian not named Mitch Hedberg?

1:15
Dan Szymborski: Gaffigan

1:15
Comment From Frank
Favorite team uniform and briefly why?

1:15
Dan Szymborski: 80s brewers. The Blue and yellow is a sweet combo we dont’ get much in baseball and that glove logo? Kick. Ass.

1:15
Comment From Guest
when the lightning round’s flowing, take the mud river home

1:16
Comment From CATS
CAT UPDATE PLZ

1:16
Dan Szymborski: Calico cat sleeping on couch. Only one in my office right now

1:16
Comment From guy
What is your contingency plan in the event you uncover evidence that your cats are planning a coup of your household?

1:16
Dan Szymborski: To try to die honorably

1:16
Comment From Frank
For HS is there a website that has good basics for deck building? I have a ton of cards I just can’t figure out things synergy and minion/spell balance

1:17
Dan Szymborski: Trump’s Teachings. (the player, not the Donald)

1:17
Dan Szymborski: Check his youtube series – he runs down the major decks and the basic strategies

1:17
Comment From Dave Brubeck
Libertarianism is fun in theory, but the actual world is one trillion times more complex than they give it credit for.

1:18
Dan Szymborski: If we’re not talking *philosophy* I’m fairly pragmatic. I see libertarian stuff as a destination, not a magic button.

1:18
Comment From hscer
Deck-building requires wood, nails, time, and work. And probably some other things.

1:18
Comment From vilnius b.
Will the Democrats send in a pinch hitter for Hillary? Will they need to if Trump gets the GOP nomination?

1:18
Dan Szymborski: Probably not.

1:18
Comment From JeepBrah
My 02 Celica GT is running lean, iv been trying to fix the issue for over a year now (srs). I’m getting codes P0171 and an occasional random misfire in my cylinders (P0300-P0303). When my car is cold it has some acceleration issues and it sputters a bit, but when warmed up it runs like normal. Iv run out of options..

1:19
Dan Szymborski: PC valve stuff?

1:19
Dan Szymborski: PDV

1:19
Dan Szymborski: CPV

1:19
Dan Szymborski: PCV

1:19
Dan Szymborski: I don’t really do my own repairs, I just know how stuff works, but I don’t have a desire to fix myself

1:20
Dan Szymborski: I know exactly how to replace my O2 sensors. I’m not actually going to *do* it though

1:20
Comment From earls ghost
If Donald Trump wins a few primaries next spring, do you think the GOP will send a hit squad to take him down? (Jeez, that rotor blade on his helicopter had a missing bolt–how’d that happen?) And that the Democrats will send some ex-Navy Seals to make sure he stays safe?

1:20
Dan Szymborski: He’s still going to have issues when anybody actually gives a @#%#@ about the race right now

1:20
Dan Szymborski: It’s all Washington and horsetraders. Nobody else really cares all that much about 2016 election yet

1:21
Dan Szymborski: Every primary poll should have an option “WHY THE HELL DO I CARE BOUT THIS IT’S FRIGGIN AUGUST 2015” and it would get like 90% of the vote.

1:21
Comment From Wat
A Canadian business recently shut down and said because of it’s Christian belief it could not work with unions.

1:21
Dan Szymborski: As far as I’m concerned, that’s their decision. It’s not my business to make people do stupid things.

1:21
Dan Szymborski: err to make people not

1:21
Comment From mtsw
Hillary gets hit by a meteor. Who makes a better fill-in: Biden or Gore?

1:22
Dan Szymborski: Biden

1:22
Comment From MSW
Donald Trump has massive, long-running mafia ties. Is there any way that doesn’t sink him in the election?

1:22
Dan Szymborski: I’d be shocked if he got to the election. And if he did, I’m probably voting for Clinton.

1:22
Comment From mtsw
Carly Fiorina is polling at like 4%. Is 96/4 roughly the proportion of people who are happy with HP printers?

1:22
Dan Szymborski: heh

1:22
Comment From CamelJockey
I bought an older Porsche and I feel almost depressed when I’m not driving. I can’t wait to buy a newer one for sure. Anyone else get these feels?

1:22
Comment From hscer
If Trump were to become president, odds he gets bored and resigns in the first two or three years?

1:22
Dan Szymborski: Not that bad actually

1:23
Comment From RICHSTRONG
Just tore down my 99 trans am with the stock LS1 engine. At first I was just going to replace the heads with some aftermarket AFR’s and a better FI cam, then I got started to thinking about other builds and i’m an adrenaline junkie so now i’m just selling the LS1 block and building an LSX 427 with an F-2 Procharger. Aiming realistically for the 1,500 RWHP mark and 7’s in the 1/4 mile. Before doing all this I had a baby aftermarket FI cam, F1-A procharger on 12#, hooker headers 1 7/8 headers, and a bunch of other goodies. Only made about 800 at the wheels though. Anyway, yeah, just wondering if there’s any other F-body enthusiasts on Fangraphs.

1:23
Dan Szymborski: I don’t understand a lot of the stuff you said, but if someone speaks up, I’ll post that.

1:23
Comment From Jon
People should care about this election because we’re at a point where Bernie Sanders has about a 20% chance at the presidency. Source – I’m a political analyst

1:23
Dan Szymborski: Nah, there’s no way he’s 20% to win the presidency. I dont’ think he’s actually at 20% to get the nomination.

1:24
Comment From Glenn Close
How many times have people told you that they won’t be ignored, Dan? I was a kid with a pet bunny when I watched that movie. I resolved never to have casual sex ever ever ever.

1:24
Dan Szymborski: OK, quiet lightning round this week, so it now ends.

1:24
Dan Szymborski: Did you guys finally tire of it?

1:25
Dan Szymborski: Anyway, thanks for joining me everybody!

1:25
Dan Szymborski: As a reminder, you can find me at ESPN.com, projections and chats at FanGraphs, DSzymborski on Twitter

1:25
Dan Szymborski: And like in five minutes, I ‘m going to be streaming at twitch.tv/ZimSmash of some mega TGT pack opening!





Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.

newest oldest most voted
Bip
Member
Member
Bip

yeah lemons get a bad rap. I am a (very) amateur cook, and lemons are one of those ingredients you just need to have on hand at all times.

cornflake5000
Guest
cornflake5000

you misspelled “onions”

Jibber
Guest
Jibber

You both misspelled “scotch”