NERD Game Scores for Tuesday, August 25, 2015

August 25, 2015

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

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Most Highly Rated Game
Chicago NL at San Francisco | 22:15 ET
Arrieta (168.0 IP, 74 xFIP-) vs. Cain (47.2 IP, 123 xFIP-)
At some point during his 2006 conversation with Ricky Gervais — or actually maybe during another conversation with a different person in a different year — professional misanthrope Larry David claims that he regrets immediately every commitment he makes as soon has he’s made it. Every future obligation represents not an opportunity for David, but rather a looming nightmare, the prospect of which weighs heavily on his mind until it’s either fulfilled or, preferably, canceled.

David’s apprehension towards the future isn’t irrelevant to the Chicago Cubs’ current situation within the developing postseason landscape. As noted by a reader here yesterday, the club possesses simultaneously a high probability of qualifying for the postseason while, simultaneously, almost no chance of winning the NL Central. They are, in other words, almost certain to appear in the one-game wild-card playoff. So while the club’s remaining regular-season games aren’t precisely immaterial, they appear to have little consequence relative to the appointment the Cubs have made for Wednesday, October 7.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Basically All of Them?

Another Brief Note
Today’s Free Game
Today’s free game features Toronto at Texas, starts at 20:05 ET, and can be accessed by means of this hyperlinked text.

Complete Schedule
Here’s the complete and very sortable table for all of today’s games. Pitching probables and game times aggregated from MLB.com and also the rest of the internet. Note that the calculations both for team and game NERD scores have changed recently to better integrate playoff odds into same. Read more about those adjustments here and here.

Away		SP	Tm.	Gm.	Tm.	SP		Home	Time
Dallas Keuchel	HOU	8	7	7	9	2	NYA	Ivan Nova	19:05
N. Syndergaard	NYN	10	5	5	2	4	PHI	Jerome Williams	19:05
James Shields	SD	6	3	6	6	10	WAS	St. Strasburg	19:05
Jered Weaver	LAA	3	6	4	3	2	DET	Alfredo Simon	19:08
Chad Bettis	COL	5	3	4	2	7	ATL	Mike Foltynewicz	19:10
Alex Wood	LAN	5	10	7	3	10	CIN	John Lamb	19:10
Wily Peralta	MIL	4	3	4	4	6	CLE	Josh Tomlin	19:10
Ervin Santana	MIN	3	4	4	4	5	TB	Nate Karns	19:10
Charlie Morton	PIT	6	9	6	3	4	MIA	Brad Hand	19:10
Mark Buehrle	TOR	5	8	7	7	7	TEX	Derek Holland*	20:05
Mig. Gonzalez	BAL	4	5	4	3	2	KC	Danny Duffy	20:10
Wade Miley	BOS	4	3	4	3	6	CHA	Jose Quintana	20:10
Jaime Garcia	STL	6	5	5	5	5	AZ	Robbie Ray	21:40
Jesse Chavez	OAK	5	3	4	3	5	SEA	M. Montgomery	22:10
Jake Arrieta	CHN	9	10	8	8	3	SF	Matt Cain	22:15

* = Fewer than 10 IP, NERD at discretion of very handsome author.

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Mike Green

8 years ago

The Yankees have a higher team NERD than the Blue Jays? Can we have a video review on that one please? Perhaps there is something aesthetically pleasing about the last baseball gasp of Alex Rodriguez and of Carlos Beltran, with the possibility of one last game-winning home run promising tension of cinematic proportions.

-1

DNA+

Reply to Mike Green

Yankees are more interesting on the pitching side, and Blue Jays on the hitting side. Both teams hit a lot of home runs, and have identical records. It is probably properly a coin toss.

cass

Reply to DNA+

Team WAR does not factor in starting pitching because this is calculated separately for each day’s starting pitcher.

If the Yankees are closer to 50% odds of making the playoffs, though, this would increase their team score. I’d guess this is the issue. The Blue Jays have things locked up too well. (Their records are the same, but they are projected to be better and so their odds are better.)

Reply to cass

That makes sense, cass.

Or to put it another way, the chance of a game-winning home run and a swan dive from Beltran or Rodriguez are about the same. Hence, more cinematic tension than the relentless destruction of the Blue Jay offence.

Excellent point about the starting pitching being factored separately. I was actually thinking about Betances and Miller, and Betances in particular. To me, him and Wade Davis are the two most interesting pitchers to watch right now, because they just make hitters look silly.

John

Yankees divisional odds are closer to 50% is a contributing factor. Perhaps the contributingest.