Author Archive

NERD Game Scores: Watch Felix Doubront for Some Reason

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

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Most Highly Rated Game
Toronto at Oakland | 22:05 ET
Doubront (14.0 IP, 77 xFIP-) vs. Gray (129.2 IP, 86 xFIP-)
While the author is unable to cite any such documents specifically, reason dictates that there are probably hundreds or even thousands of tirelessly researched and scrupulously peer-reviewed scientific papers all of which conclude that human decision-making is a largely arbitrary endeavor. Today, instead of continuing to ignore this difficult truth, the reader has an opportunity to embrace it — by watching Toronto left-hander Felix Doubront pitch for some reason. Doubront has produced two curious starts for the Blue Jays, conceding just a single walk against 52 batters while recording a 69.0% ground-ball rate — this, however, while also allowing eight runs over just 11.2 innings. A compelling blend of success and failure, that. As to whether it’s a reason for watching Doubront, however — let’s regard this concern as moot for the moment.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Toronto Radio.

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NERD Game Scores: Young Joe Ross Viewing Opportunity

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

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Most Highly Rated Game
New York NL at Washington | 19:05 ET
deGrom (113.2 IP, 81 xFIP-) vs. Ross (20.1 IP, 55 xFIP-)
Today represents an excellent one for those interested in observing talented young pitchers. As noted below, both Boston’s Brian Johnson and Philadelphia’s Aaron Nola — in each case, first-round selections who’ve produced promising resumes as professionals — are expected to record their major-league debuts this evening. Of particular note with regard to this featured game, however, is both (a) the success (probably unexpected) that Washington right-hander Joe Ross has already enjoyed against major-league batters and (b) how the contest also features conspicuously talented and hard-throwing New York right-hander Jacob deGrom. In the end, however, the reader can’t go wrong with any of the three games mentioned here. Different than actual life, that, within the harrowing confines of which it’s impossible not to go constantly.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: New York NL Television.

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FanGraphs Audio: Dave Cameron Analyzes Trades and Trades

Episode 580
Dave Cameron is both (a) the managing editor of FanGraphs and (b) the guest on this particular edition of FanGraphs Audio, during which edition he discusses trade value: both the top hypothetical values of players who won’t be traded and the very real value of those who almost certainly will.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 43 min play time.)

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Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 7/20/15

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NERD Game Scores: Populist Knuckleball Entertainment Event

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

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Most Highly Rated Game
Boston at Los Angeles AL | 22:05 ET
Wright (43.1 IP, 125 xFIP-) vs. Heaney (27.1 IP, 82 xFIP-)
Due to popular opinion — which, one must concede, is generally among the least attractive opinions — the calculation for the NERD pitcher scores includes a bonus for knuckleballers equivalent to 5 * KN%, where KN% represents the number of knucklers a pitcher has thrown as a percentage of all the pitches he’s thrown. An attempt, this, to represent the sort of appeal a knuckleballer might possess above and beyond his actual performance. Boston right-hander Steven Wright is the only starter besides R.A. Dickey to benefit from this bonus: Wright has thrown the pitch at least about 80% of the time according to PITCHf/x — and probably more often than that, after adjusting for some of PITCHf/x’s classification issues. Wright pitches tonight against Andrew Heaney, who’s enjoyed considerable success since joining the club in late June.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Boston Radio.

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NERD Game Scores: Johnny Cueto Trade Audition Event

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

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Most Highly Rated Game
Cleveland at Cincinnati | 13:10 ET
Carrasco (108.1 IP, 70 xFIP-) vs. Cueto (118.2 IP, 85 xFIP-)
As noted by FanGraphs contributor and doctor of jurisprudence Craig Edwards recently in these pages, Cincinnati right-hander Johnny Cueto — owing both to his impending free agency and also the the Reds’ current position along the win curve — is among the starters most likely to be traded before the July 31 non-waiver deadline. Hypothetically, that would allow Cueto to record three more starts (including this afternoon’s) for the club with which he originally signed out of the Dominican Republic. Three starts at most, that is — and possibly fewer than that. Today represents an opportunity to observe Cueto perhaps for the last time in Cincinnati uniform — and represents also the opportunity to observe in Carlos Carrasco one of the league’s most electric starting pitchers.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Cleveland Radio.

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NERD Game Scores: Yanks-M’s Contest of Little Not Urgency

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

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Most Highly Rated Game
Seattle at New York AL | 13:05 ET
Iwakuma (29.1 IP, 99 xFIP-) vs. Pineda (106.1 IP, 67 xFIP-)
Four of the league’s top-10 qualifiers by park-adjusted xFIP are scheduled to start today: Clayton Kershaw, Corey Kluber, Francisco Liriano, and Pineda. Among them, Pineda is the only one expected to participate in a game featuring two clubs (his own and his opponent’s) each currently possessing playoff odds between 10% and 90%. Which, that’s a reasonable way, probably, to measure the “urgency” or “leverage” of a game — i.e. by identifying those games which offer clubs in something resembling contention. On the other hand, it’s possible that a reader might find the Dodgers-Nationals game more compelling — that is, a game which features two clubs almost certain to qualify for the postseason. What one finds, ultimately, is that neither option is right, all is relative, and there’s little consequence to anything.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Seattle Radio.

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NERD Game Scores: Houston Astros Ongoing Pleasure Event

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

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Most Highly Rated Game
Texas at Houston | 20:10 ET
Perez (N/A) vs. McHugh (114.0 IP, 101 xFIP-)
Were Houston’s ballpark to feature not a retractable, but rather a permanent, roof like the one found on the club’s previous stadium, a good name for that facility would be — instead of Minute Maid Park or whatever — would be the Pleasure Dome, after the stately edifice decreed by Kubla Khan in Xanadu. First off, it would facilitate a deep sense of connection for the people of Houston to the Western literary tradition, engendering a sense of civic pride lacking in sprawling modern cities such as that one. Furthermore, it would serve as an accurate representation of what one might find inside that park — that is, a club which offers not only aesthetically appealing baseball but also (for the moment, at least) finds itself with a deliciously uncertain future apropos the postseason. Tonight, who the Astros face is the Texas Rangers and left-hander Martin Perez, expected to record his first start since last May.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Texas Radio.

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The Fringe Five: Baseball’s Most Compelling Fringe Prospects

The Fringe Five is a weekly regular-season exercise, introduced a couple years ago by the present author, wherein that same author utilizes regressed stats, scouting reports, and also his own fallible intuition to identify and/or continue monitoring the most compelling fringe prospects in all of baseball.

Central to the exercise, of course, is a definition of the word fringe, a term which possesses different connotations for different sorts of readers. For the purposes of the column this year, a fringe prospect (and therefore one eligible for inclusion in the Five) is any rookie-eligible player at High-A or above both (a) absent from the most current iteration of Kiley McDaniel’s top-200 prospect list and (b) not currently playing in the majors. Players appearing on any of McDaniel’s updated prospect lists or, otherwise, selected in the first round of the current season’s amateur draft will also be excluded from eligibility.

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Paul Sporer FanGraphs Chat – 7/16/15

11:59
Paul Sporer: We’re live. I know we’re starved for baseball, but just one more day. What’d y’all think of the Home Run Derby?

11:59
Comment From Jill
Pence or Puig ROS in OBP league?

12:00
Paul Sporer: Puig for me. Plus I think he’s coming at a relative discount right now.

12:00
Comment From ricardo
Springer or JD Martinez ROS?

12:00
Paul Sporer: JDM and I think that’d be the case even if Springer were healthy

12:00
Comment From Larry
Keeper Trade: How much longer to you expect Garnder to be better offensively than Yelich. Obviously ROS this year, i think next year too, then it flips?

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