Paul Sporer FanGraphs Chat – 7/16/15

July 16, 2015

11:59

Paul Sporer: We’re live. I know we’re starved for baseball, but just one more day. What’d y’all think of the Home Run Derby?

11:59

Comment From Jill
Pence or Puig ROS in OBP league?

12:00

Paul Sporer: Puig for me. Plus I think he’s coming at a relative discount right now.

12:00

Comment From ricardo
Springer or JD Martinez ROS?

12:00

Paul Sporer: JDM and I think that’d be the case even if Springer were healthy

12:00

Comment From Larry
Keeper Trade: How much longer to you expect Garnder to be better offensively than Yelich. Obviously ROS this year, i think next year too, then it flips?

12:00

Paul Sporer: Yeah, I can see it playing out that way. Honestly, Yelich might take over in ’16, but for rest of ’15, I’m with Gardner

12:00

Comment From Todd
Josh Donaldson. Continue or Collapse? Should i look to sell high?

12:01

Paul Sporer: Continue, but you shouldn’t be averse to selling high

12:01

Comment From Eric
Is this a fair deal? Which side do you like better ROS? Carlos Gomez + Daniel Murphy for Chapman + Lorenzo Cain + Kendrick

12:01

Paul Sporer: i think the Gomez-Murphy is better overall, but I’d take the other side if saves were a sharp need

12:01

Comment From Avisail Love
I know you love Avisail Garcia but would you consider dropping him for Plouffe if you’re worried about Freeman’s return?

12:01

Paul Sporer: I wouldn’t hate that. I do like Avisail, but I recognize he may take a little to be a consistent producer

12:02

Comment From Walt
Thoughts on a possible innings limit for any of the CLEV SP? Seems like Bauer, Salazar, and possibly Carrasco could all be in line for that.

12:03

Paul Sporer: Bauer had a 199 last year, Salazar had 171. Carrasco only had 134, but he’s also 28 and has logged big totals in the past. I dont’ worry about any of them right now

12:03

Comment From Shawn
Paul Sporer- The Brock Holt of Fangraphs

12:03

Paul Sporer: Woo, I’m an All-Star!! But everyone mocks me

12:03

Comment From Josh G
Jeremy Hellickson’s K/9 jumped from 6.2 before June 1 to 9.7 after June 1 which coincided with him nearly eliminating his sinker. He has a 2.96 SIERA over the last 30 days. Are you buying him as a potential second half breakout?

12:04

Paul Sporer: I recently noticed that, too, tbh. I almost discussed him on Tuesday’s pod. I’m a little skeptical, but I’m going to investigate the surge

12:04

Comment From BamaWhoDat
Best home run derby ever going to 4 minutes worked out great ..prob could go to three minutes in later rounds was the most exciting all star event in history

12:04

Paul Sporer: Agreed. Said the exact same on the Tuesday pod.

12:04

Comment From Houzer
Soler or Pederson RoS in a redraft?

12:04

Paul Sporer: Pederson, but it’s close

12:04

Comment From Elf+of+Ellsbury
P-Spor (can I call you that?), I’m looking to buy Kris Bryant in a keep 5 league. I figure the only chance I have is by overpaying. Does an offer of Rendon, Brantley and Syndergaard get it done? Am I being foolish? Should I wait until Rendon is back in the line up or can I try this already?

12:04

Paul Sporer: That would constitute foolish. I realize you’ll have to overpay, but at some point it gets to be too much and you found the too much point

12:05

Comment From ronnie
I’ve gotten very little production from 1B this year. I just grabbed Chris Carter, so who do you think my best bet will be between him, Trumbo, Brandon Moss and Adam Laroche? Or should I be looking elsewhere all together?

12:05

Paul Sporer: Moss

12:05

Comment From Phil
Matt Harrison – think he’ll offer any 12-team AL only roto value in second half and/or next year?

12:05

Paul Sporer: Ehh, I’d be surprised. We’re three years from his last quality work and he’s thrown 32 IP in those three seasons.

12:05

Comment From Houzer
Starting De La Rosa tomorrow in San Diego?

12:05

Paul Sporer: Jorge? Sure. I really don’t know which DLR, though

12:06

Comment From Hoff
Thought I would hate the HR Derby, so I didn’t watch until the final round, I regret my decision.

12:06

Paul Sporer: Yeah, you at least gotta go DVR with it just in case. I was excited for the new format and it played well!

12:06

Comment From Larry
Is McHugh droppable in 12-teamers or are there signs hes more than a streamer?

12:06

Paul Sporer: Solid since SEA ripped him. I’d *at least* stream him in that format, but he’s definitely on the cusp of being an all-time starter. I think he irons it out for a nice 2H

12:07

Comment From neal
If Clay Buchholz has his rotation spot filled by Brian Johnson, does that make him Bon Scott?

12:07

Paul Sporer: I don’t get that. Sorry.

12:07

Comment From Seeds
Harper / Frazier for Posey / Blackmon / Cruz / Matt Harvey – which side would you want?

12:07

Paul Sporer: Wow, that’s a HUGE deal. I actually think the quantity is pretty good. I usually prefer the best guy in the deal, but this is good for both sides with a slight lean toward the quantity

12:07

Comment From Pale Hose
Sporer doesn’t need Eno for the podcast and then takes his chat spot. #PowerPlay

12:08

Comment From Art Vandelay
Are comments on articles down for everyone? Or is it just a problem for me?

12:08

Paul Sporer: Lemme look

12:08

Paul Sporer: I’m working over here

12:08

Comment From Alex in Austin
When would you expect Syndergaard to get shutdown?

12:09

Paul Sporer: Don’t know that he gets flat-out shutdown, but rather massaged throughout to make it to the finish line.

12:09

Comment From Avisail Love
considering trading for Kluber in a keeper league. Kluber wouldn’t be kept by me. worth trading betts ($13), pederson ($20), or springer ($10) for him?

12:10

Paul Sporer: I trust you have a strong SP need? I wouldn’t just trade them for Kluber for fun, but as long as I need a stud arm, I’d do it. I’d prefer to give Springer since he’s not playing and ideally you’re contending

12:10

Comment From Shawn
Redraft league- Correa/Longo too much for Puig? I have Tulo/Bryant at SS & 3B now and could use a power hitting OF

12:11

Paul Sporer: It’s a lot, but the context of you not starting either of them (although I assume they are in your MI and CI?) makes it easier to do. Honestly though, I think you need to get a little something with Puig there, even in a redraft

12:11

Comment From marc
likleyhood that one or both of springer and stanton dont return this year?

12:11

Paul Sporer: i’d be pretty surprised

12:11

Comment From Bobby Blownilla
I have a chance to trade for Latos or Cashner in dynasty at a decent price. Who you prefer this year and long term? Categories QS/K/ERA/WHIP. also I who would you prefer to deal for them, Moss or P. Alvarez. OBP league. thanks!

12:12

Paul Sporer: I prefer to keep Cashner. I prefer Moss as an acquisition

12:12

Comment From Zach
Best guess at B. Hamilton OBP and Ellsbury SB ROS.

12:12

Paul Sporer: .285 OBP, 20 SBs

12:12

Comment From Opie
Do you see a solid second half from Kole Calhoun or the same average production?

12:13

Paul Sporer: Maybe a couple ticks better, but not enough to be substantially different than his 1H

12:13

Comment From Tom
No pitching available in my AL-only league so I had to trade for Ubaldo and Hutchison. I’m terrified. Should I be bracing for the worst, or could they possibly turn in good second halves?

12:14

Paul Sporer: Ubaldo is avoiding the walks and looks good. Hutch is a total wildcard. I’d actually be more afraid of Hutch right now, oddly enough

12:14

Comment From Walt
Is the high BABIP sustainable for Kipnis ROS? Or are we looking at more of a .280 hitter?

12:15

Paul Sporer: Maybe not at .369, but we’ve seen him drop a full season of .345 so it’s not out of the realm. He’s a line drive hitter with some decent speed. I’d bet on a .300 or so AVG before I’d bet on a power spike

12:15

Comment From Donnie Drapes
Should the Mets go out and get some help or just see what the team they’ve assembled can do?

12:15

Paul Sporer: Gotta get some hitting. It’s too bad.

12:15

Comment From Todd
Whats your take on Banuelos and Gausman for the rest of 2015 and then beyond…..

12:16

Paul Sporer: Banuelos needs to stay upright. That’s really been his issue throughout. The talent is good. I’d be willing to gamble, but the health is tough. Gausman is someone I adore talent-wise, but the yo-yoing of him between the pen and rotation has definitely impacted him. if they just leave him in the rotation rest of way, I’m in

12:16

Comment From Miketron
You are the high man on Panik. What do you see him doing ROS?

12:18

Paul Sporer: Not too dissimilar from his 1H where nothing jumps out as elite, but the whole pack adds up to a plus player. Maybe 5 HRs, .285 AVG, 35 R, 30 RBI

12:18

Comment From Maxamuz
I’ve grown to accept and like you Paul.

12:18

Paul Sporer: Sweet

12:18

Comment From Alex in Austin
Is Kinsler in your top 2 second baseman rest of season?

12:18

Paul Sporer: He’s never been in my top 2. But we just did the 2B ranks yesterday

12:18

Comment From Podcast Fan
Kipnis/Jace Peterson or Jose Reyes/Travis. All players can be kept. No restrictions

12:19

Paul Sporer: Prefer to the Kip side.

12:19

Comment From Gabe
Sano doesn’t seem to be getting the kind of love as some of the other call-ups. Do you think he hits another 10-12 homers this year? What do you think of him beyond this year?

12:19

Paul Sporer: I’m a fan – http://www.rotowire.com/blo…

12:19

Comment From Larry
Scribner or Pomeranz if Clippard goes?

12:20

Paul Sporer: I’m a Pomeranz fan, but I’m not sure they let him close. I’d go Mujica as a wildcard option

12:20

Comment From Donnie Drapes
Tyson or Joe Ross in keeper league?

12:20

Paul Sporer: Still Tyson, but both Ross brothers are damn good pitchers

12:20

Comment From marc
What do you make of Matt Moore ROS and next year? hang on for now?

12:21

Paul Sporer: I’ve been out for ’15 from the jump. Just don’t expect anything of note in the TJ return espec. since command and control are the last pieces to return and he never really had much in the way of those two things to begin with

12:21

Comment From BamaWhoDat
Should i expect Cruz to continue his success against lefties ? Is a plug and play in dfs vs lefties till he faulters?

12:22

Paul Sporer: Nelson Cruz? Absolutely. He’s raked lefties for years.

12:22

Comment From Bobby
Any news come out over the past week in regards to when Berrios will be called up? I don’t want to have to wait much longer!

12:22

Paul Sporer: Nope. Still unsure. Could be any time really. He is their last stud prospect to get called up this year and pitching is their biggest need

12:22

Comment From Houzer
Who says no … JD Martinez and Price for Joc Pederson?

12:22

Paul Sporer: Hopefully the guy offering the two Tigers. That’s too much for Joc and I’m a huge Joc fan

12:22

Comment From Ant
You’re my favorite writer Paul. Could I get an ROS on DeSclafani? Also, as a Tigers fan, is David Price in a DET uniform next season?

12:24

Paul Sporer: Thanks! I’m skeptical about Price returning right now, I think it kinda depends how the season plays out. Handicapping right now, I’d say 35%. DeSclafani is likely to be similar to his 1H with some of the inconsistency we’ve seen. Maybe a little better if he can avoid the blow up start, but mostly the same

12:24

Comment From Shawn
Who are some guys you think are in line for a big 2nd half? Hitters or Pitchers

12:24

Paul Sporer: Did a whole pod on pitchers. http://www.fangraphs.com/fa… Not sure on hitters yet. I haven’t done a full breakdown. Maybe the guys I’m higher in the rankings would be my standout potentials

12:24

Comment From Keeper? I hardly know her
Any update on Latos’s injury? I need to set my roster soon for the long week.

12:25

Paul Sporer: Nothing different than expected to return this weekend.

12:25

Comment From Josh G
Dexter Fowler or Gregory Polanco as a bench bat?

12:26

Paul Sporer: Wow didn’t realize Fowler has been trash for three months. I’ll go Polanco because he has more upside and they’re otherwise doing the same thing

12:26

Comment From Walt
Any signs that G Polanco will have a breakout 2nd half? Or is he more of a hold until 2016?

12:27

Paul Sporer: Nothing screams breakout in the numbers so while he could, it’d be unexpected. There’d be some previously unforeseen change

12:27

Comment From Gary
Deep AL only, I’m short on pitching. Is JD too rich for either Pineda or Carrasco? And of those two, who do you like more?

12:28

Paul Sporer: I’d go for Carrasco. I’d push to get a little something with the pitcher for JDM, but if my trade partner balked, I think I’d still do a 1-for-1 there.

12:28

Comment From Lido
Thoughts on Yahoo’s new DFS? Have you tried it out?

12:28

Paul Sporer: Haven’t tried it yet. Will dive in post ASB

12:29

Comment From Mr. X
Paul, you’re the freakin’ man. Any thoughts on Brian Johnson going forward? Looks like he has some impressive minor league numbers, but nobody seems too hyped on him.

12:34

Paul Sporer: Thanks! Johnson is more of a solid-if-unspectacular guy. He could catch fire and surprise, but he’s more likely to be just OK. (low-4.00s kinda work)

12:35

Comment From CB
Hi Paul! Fantasy question here…I’m in first in an H2H league, standard cats except for QS/OBP replacing W/AVG. I’ve been offered Sonny Gray (not keepable) for my Miguel Sano (keepable for three years at a 17th rounder, 15th, and 13th each year. My team is already pretty strong but Gray would be a big addition. I’m just worried that Gray regresses to a 3.00 ERA or so while Sano busts out sometime in the future. Thoughts on whether this is fair value for him? I have one available keeper slot for Sano with my others tied up but I could opt to just keep Cueto at an 8th instead. Thanks!

12:35

Paul Sporer: Focus on ’15. You’re in 1st, but nothing is promised after a half in first. I like Sano, a lot in fact, but Gray is still a much better asset for ’15. Even if he regresses to a solid 3.00 ERA pitcher, that’s still a LOT of good IP. I think you gotta do it

12:35

Comment From Gabe
In a dynasty league, would you trade Keuchel for Soler? Maybe I need to ask for more?

12:36

Paul Sporer: Similar to a deal we covered earlier in the chat wherein you could ask for more without being a punk, but if your trade partner wouldn’t budge and he/she said it’s gotta be this 1-for-1, then you could do it.

12:36

Comment From coach
Hey Paul, what side ya got: Blackmon for Sano, Familia, Gallo. 12-team redraft

12:37

Paul Sporer: I can take the trio there, even in redraft.

12:37

Comment From Houzer
If Chapman gets moved, does Cingrani become the main 8th inning guy?

12:39

Paul Sporer: Perhaps when healthy. That pen is a mess without Chapman, though

12:39

Comment From Pirates Hurdles
AC/DC singers Paul, sheesh

12:39

Paul Sporer: Ah, not in my purview musically.

12:39

Comment From Shawn
Sorry to hear about Curtis, Paul. I enjoyed the pics you always posted of him on Instagram. Growing up I had a Beagle that we lost after 8 years. No need to post this, just wanted to give my condolences.

12:39

Paul Sporer: Thanks, Shawn, I really appreciate it

12:40

Comment From Bill
Why on earth is Oswaldo Arcia still in the minor leagues? He’s crushing it.

12:40

Paul Sporer: Not really sure. Doubt he lasts down there, though. I’m an Arcia fan

12:40

Comment From Berrios – when?
when’s the right time to pick up berrios? would you drop chavez, e. ramirez or karns for him now?

12:41

Paul Sporer: I really don’t know. Predicting call-ups is legitimately impossible without being in a front office. I wouldn’t drop any of those for him, thoguh

12:41

Comment From Jon M.
You called Carson Smith taking the job long before it was fashionable, so I’m gonna hit you with a number closer speculation question. Best shot at saves ROS: Siegrest, R. Soriano, Tazawa, Hawkins?

12:42

Paul Sporer: Sieg if Rosy is hurt. So stay tuned there for sure. Hawkins probably has the best shot at just getting raw saves regardless of performance surrounding them, but my top pick is Tazawa in anticipation of a Uehara trade

12:42

Comment From Greg
Thoughts on D. Hutchison ROS? Awful ERA, solid FIP

12:43

Paul Sporer: Total wildcard, IMO. Still learning on the job clearly as he’s basically an inverse of his ’14. Could click and go on a run, but the risk is substantial, still.

12:43

Comment From STS
Any projections or thoughts on Heaney ROS. He is a top ________ pitcher ROS

12:45

Paul Sporer: Not sure on the top ___th pitcher yet as I haven’t done my midseason SP ranks, but Heaney is good. The hype all died after his lame 29 IP last year, but that’s good for sure because he was easy to acquire this year. Obviously he will regress from a 1.32, but he could reasonably be a 3.32 the rest of the way without any sort of crazy leaps in skill. I’d project him closer to 3.75, but low-to-mid 3.00s is in play. a good upside gamble.

12:45

Comment From marc
should i look to add an OFer? have Soler Gardner and Maybin with Stanton and Springer on the Dl and was offered Pollock for Odorizzi

12:45

Paul Sporer: That’s a good deal, so I’d be OK doing it. you’re down two VERY good OFs already with Soler having already missed time to injury and Maybin hardly being a bastion of health himself so yeah I’d be keen on getting another OF and Pollock rules

12:45

Comment From Travis
Thoughts on Jeff Samardzija for the second half? He’s quoted saying he was pressing early with a new team, but it certainly didn’t seem to be an issue with the A’s last year. Looks like a different pitch mix than in the past, throwing the cutter a lot more than the two-seamer. Do you buy into his recent success from the last month or so?

12:46

Paul Sporer: I do buy his recent success. Huge on him coming into the season and haven’t really wavered there (though it’s been easier with the improved performance). He was in the 9 pitchers I really like for the 2H podcast, too

12:46

Comment From Kevin
Crawford for Chris Davis? Need 1B (Freeman DL) with Sano at SS

12:46

Paul Sporer: That’s a good deal

12:46

Comment From Christobel
Brad Miller or Elvis Andrus in an OBP league?

12:46

Paul Sporer: Miller

12:46

Comment From deshields or gose ros
deshields or gose ros?

12:46

Paul Sporer: DeShields

12:47

Comment From skipper
Would you rather have Lance Lynn or Jordan Zimmerman ROS? Is Billy Hamilton enough or too much to get either of them?

12:47

Paul Sporer: Lynn. Not as long as you have other SBs or enough SBs from Hamilton that you won’t lose a ton of points without him

12:47

Comment From marc
What potential team gives Hamels the biggest fantasy boost?

12:47

Paul Sporer: Dodgers

12:47

Comment From Art Vandelay
I just keep getting a white screen that says “There was a problem processing your comment”

12:47

Paul Sporer: That’s weird. Have you restarted your browser?

12:47

Comment From Maxamuz
Man I love Watermelon. So good.

12:48

Paul Sporer: Solid 55-60 grade fruit

12:48

Comment From Billy
Where is Jacoby Ellsbury worth the most, being traded away or kept?

12:50

Paul Sporer: Likely being traded away. I heard someone comp him to Johnny Damon the other day and that seems perfect from a statistical standpoint. Maybe Johnny Damon with lesser health is a better way to say it

12:50

Comment From Josh G
Please rank ROS: Shoemaker, Peavy, Velasquez, Chavez, Nelson, Jungmann. Thanks!

12:51

Paul Sporer: Chavez, Nelson, Peavy, Shoemaker, VV, Jungmann, I think… subject to change upon further investigation when I post my SP ranks

12:51

Comment From Mike Honcho
Do you see Ryan Zimmerman being useful ROS?

12:51

Paul Sporer: I’m skeptical. Injuries in a player’s base can sap his power and plantar fasciitis is a bish. It just worries me a lot as a nagging injury

12:51

Comment From Norm
Why isn’t anyone expecting a second half bounceback from Cano?

12:54

Paul Sporer: Seems everyone but me is – http://www.fangraphs.com/fa… But honestly, a bounceback to what? Yankees-era Cano isn’t coming back. If he bounces back to last year, that’s fine, but far from special and probably needs an OBP league to maximized. I just think after 1034 PA in Seattle, we have to accept he’s a different player. Maybe not the slug he was in the 1H, but we also learned that there were some medical issues tied to it and i’m not sure those are cured

12:54

Comment From BamaWhoDat
Should Padres deal jupton ? And if so who is likely to grab him?

12:55

Paul Sporer: They can still make a run, so I don’t necessarily think they should, but maybe it’s more of a retooling trade where they move him for something that helps this year. Perhaps a useful MI or 3B. Not sure who’d get him, tbh

12:55

Comment From alex
Where does Olivera play when he comes up, doesn’t seem like the Dodgers have a spot for him at this point. Do you think they’ll keep him down in the minors rest of the seaosn becuase of that?

12:57

Paul Sporer: Great question, but who really knows? They’re so stacked with talent that it seems like it’ll take injuries for some of these guys to break in, like Olivera or Seager. Or of course Guerrero who still lingers. Maybe his age helps him since Olivera is already 30. If he keeps raking, I could see him by passing Seager for the call with Turner moving to SS to take some of Rollins’ PT

12:57

Comment From Something everyone wants to know…
Let’s say Papelbon, F Rod & Chapman are all traded. Please rank their replacements along with Soria and Clippard (2 closers I own).

12:57

Paul Sporer: Soria, Giles, Clippard, MIL, CIN

12:57

Comment From marc
Drop Lackey Gio McHugh or Moore (who could be kept next year) for Heaney, who could also be kept for next year?

12:57

Paul Sporer: Moore.

12:57

Comment From Oswaldo Arcia
When will I Be Back? #crushingAAA

12:57

Paul Sporer: Sooooon!

12:57

Paul Sporer:

12:57

Comment From Proegler
Hey Paul, deep points league and need to solidify back end of my rotation. Going forward, can you rank Beachy, Jungman, Montgomery, Banuelos, and Brian Johnson?

12:58

Paul Sporer: Monty, Banuelos, Jungmann, BJ, Beachy

12:58

Comment From CB
One more question if you don’t mind…I want to start a full (keep entire roster) dynasty with full farm, the works

12:58

Paul Sporer: OK, I’ll let you.

12:58

Comment From Colby
Do you think its in the Tigers best interest to trade who they can and retool on the fly? It seems as if there’s too many holes to fill with out gutting an already bottom of the barrel farm system. Plus missing the playoffs might help by letting our aging stars rest for a winter.

1:00

Paul Sporer: Can’t sell 3.5 out with this team composition. Even the 9 game deficit in the division is attainable. They’re far from perfect, but they’re still only a bullpen arm or two from really competing, especially if Feliz somehow pans out. In theory, I understand why some suggest they should sell, but in practice, I just don’t see it

1:00	Comment From Cory 10 team keeper league: trade Gallo (on my farm and 6 years control) and the #1 pick next year (my #8 overall pick this year was Gio Gonzalez, hope next year will be #10) for Hanley (1.5 years control). What do you think?

1:01	Paul Sporer: flags fly forever. even with shoulder looking like it might be a major thing, Hanley has still easily been the best SS in baseball (fantasy-wise, obv since he doesn’t actually play SS)

1:02	Comment From owensurett35 Hey Paul, Where do you see the Mets finishing this season? Will they get a wild card?

1:02	Paul Sporer: I picked them for a WC at the start of the season and I’m sticking with it

1:02	Comment From Billy Watched Verlander’s last start… touched 97 with a tight breaking ball, does he still have a chance to be a good amount of what he once was?

1:04

Paul Sporer: Yeah I mean, to hear folks bury him is a sure sign that they’ve watched very little of him in the past year-plus. He’s clearly not what he was at peak, but the stuff still shows and when he’s commanding it, he can be very good. He’s no longer a frontliner (sub-3.00s) and I’d be surprised he returned to that level for any significant amount of time (several months), but he can be a firm mid-rotation (mid-3.00s) with spurts of greatness. health has been the biggest factor here. he didn’t just lose his ability to pitch

1:04	Comment From IA Pablo Sandoval or Plouffe ROS?

1:04	Paul Sporer: Plouffe

1:06	Comment From G Innings capped league, roll with Kyle Hendricks or stash Nola?

1:07	Paul Sporer: Hendricks

1:07	Comment From Josh G Can Rubby still deliver on his potential this season or is it time to move on?

1:08	Paul Sporer: With a .958 OPS v. LH, I think he’s a stream guy against righty-heavy lineups only right now

1:08	Comment From Greg Who is the one hitter that you feel will have a great 2nd half who would be categorized as a ‘buy low’ right now?

1:11	Paul Sporer: Does Brandon Belt count? He’s actually been pretty good, I guess, but I don’t think he really costs much since it’s 1B. I could see him hitting 15 HRs in 2H

1:11

Comment From Ali
Thoughts on Dozier and a CI sweetner for Bumgarner? 5×5 Roto, 16 teamer. I’m in serious need of MI help, and I’m sweeping pitching. With the trade though I’d be left really thin with Archer, Syndergaard, Anibal Sanchez and a bunch of streamers. I’m in second place right now. Thinking about Dozier’s second half decline in 2014…

1:13	Paul Sporer: Career is only 20 points lower on OPS for his 2Hs career-wise. He wasn’t really THAT bad in the 2H of last year, just that the HRs went from 18 to 5. the 6% HR/FB was the big reason, skills were solid otherwise. I’d do that deal

1:13	Comment From CB One more question if you don’t mind…I’m wanting to start a full dynasty (keep entire roster!) with full farm, the works. Any tips on the best way to incorporate contracts with the entire roster being kept? Thanks again!

1:14	Paul Sporer: I feel like those objectives run counter to each other. If it’s dynasty, you keep without contracts. If you want contracts, it’s more of a keeper league, where you have to make cuts

1:14	Comment From Pete Roto 5×5, 5-player keeper – Marte and Bumgarner for Trout. Too much? But…but…it’s a chance to get Trout…

1:14	Paul Sporer: No, that’s probably the required fare to get Trout, as it should be

1:14	Comment From BallznSrikes Anything to see in Adam Morgan?

1:15	Paul Sporer: Ehhhhh, probably not. He was a one-time prospect and he is just 25, but it looks pretty fringy. Living on a 94% LOB rate right now

1:15	Comment From BamaWhoDat Boston is projected to play better in second half…do you think I should target Han ram or mookie?

1:15	Paul Sporer: Mookie

1:15	Comment From Billy Do you have a problem with acquiring a guy you gave up for next to nothing six months ago for more now? Or is it all about value

1:15	Paul Sporer: All about value. The market changes and you should be willing to as well. I disliked guys in draft season that I’m now seeking out in trade (MadBum for example).

1:15	Comment From Nick Hypothetical Situation – An elite once-in-a-generation player will sign with your team at league minimum for a ridiculous amount of time, but wants the power to change the team name, jerseys, pretty much everything. Do you say yes? Which MLB teams would say no?

1:16	Paul Sporer: Very interesting hypothetical. I don’t know that I’d say because controlling all of that would take away from his game.

1:16	Comment From schwarber time Montero’s hurt and Schwarber’s been mashing. Make the switch now before the rest of the league scrambles to the waiver wire or hold tight with Montero?

1:16	Paul Sporer: If you have a chance to get Schwarber, do it now while there’s a chance folks aren’t really paying attention bc of the break

1:17	Comment From BamaWhoDat apperently my questions don’t pass the eye test I’m outta here

1:17	Paul Sporer: Whattya mean?

1:17	Paul Sporer: I’ve answered all the questions to the point of your comment, so if you sent one, it was answered

1:17	Comment From Shawn Would you be shopping Stanton now or do you think the power will return immediately when he does and best bet is to hold right now?

1:17	Paul Sporer: It really depends what you can get. I’m fine shopping him, but you’re selling low just by the virtue of the fact that he’s injured. I’d probably just hold personally

1:17	Comment From Josh G Any reason for optimism regarding Kris Medlen when he returns?

1:18	Paul Sporer: Sure, I mean he is a talented pitcher and it’s not like you CAN’T return from 2 TJs. Could be a lotta five-and-dives on KC, though. He’s on the perfect team bc they don’t need him going 6-7 with any regularity bc of their pen

1:18	Comment From marc Who could the pirates add that makes them serious WS contenders?

1:19	Paul Sporer: I think they are serious contenders as-is, tbh. Any deadline improvements would be on the fringes. bullpen arm here, bench bat there, that kinda stuff. Pittsburgh is v. good.

1:19	Comment From BallznSrikes Team who I could help win this year, keeper league with inflation…I give Freeman, McCutch, Lynn, A Wood (all FA to be) and O Herrera for Tomas, Chapman and Thor, fair?

1:20	Paul Sporer: No, you need more back. Even with them becoming FAs, you’re still giving a TON. Your big returns are both pitchers and they’re terrifying to keep. I want a better centerpiece hitter over Tomas.

1:20	Comment From Leo Is there anything that might suggest that Carlos Santana will have a good second half? or is it sell time with him

1:21	Paul Sporer: I remain a fan and actually almost said him for that guy who asked for a 2H buy low breakout. Skills aren’t terribly different from last year except the power is a big lower. he could regain that pop and still reach 25 Hrs

1:22	Comment From IA Do you think Ian Kennedy can cure his homeritis and have a productive 2nd half?

1:23

Paul Sporer: Cure it? No. It’s been a long-term issue for him. But push it down some? Sure. HRs are the devil for pitchers, though, so it’s still a risk. He could realistically cut the volume of HRs, but see little difference in results if the HRs he’s giving up are still more than solos. It can’t be this bad for another half, but I still think we might only get like a 3.60 ERA

1:23	Comment From Greg Looking to sell M Sano in a 1 year keeper league where he can be kept next season as a 23rd round pick. What would be a decent return for him? Position doesn’t matter.

1:24	Paul Sporer: That’s REALLY difficult to answer. A gillion factors are in play, the most important of which is whether or not you’re contending. I’d probably just hang onto him, tbh

1:24	Comment From Billy Who do you like ROS and long term in a points league, Flores, Schoop, Odor?

1:24	Paul Sporer: Odor

1:24	Comment From Todd Thanks Paul. appreciate you letting us nerds pick your brain……

1:24	Paul Sporer: No problem!

1:24	Comment From owensurett35 Who should be some of the Mets targets, approaching the NW Deadline

1:24	Paul Sporer: Milwaukee’s hitters

1:24	Comment From adam severino or hoffman?

1:25	Paul Sporer: Sev.

1:25	Comment From Billy What is your belief in Arismendy Alcantara?

1:26	Paul Sporer: Still pretty high long-term. He’s doing alright in AAA (although he cooled just before the break). The Zobrist Swiss Army Knife comparisons are apt, though I’d say he has a lower AVG ceiling right now with a higher speed ceiling when comparing to prime Zobrist

1:26	Comment From Ray Brian Johnson replaced Bon Scott as lead singer of AC/DC.

1:26	Paul Sporer: I need to bone up on classic rock, I guess.

1:27	Comment From adam Career WAR: Rodon or Springer?

1:27	Paul Sporer: Springer

1:27	Comment From adam Better ROS and/or better 2016: Wood or Quintana

1:27	Paul Sporer: Q

1:27	Comment From Rated Rookie I have Grandal and Schwarber in an 11-team keep-forever. When/if Schwarber is called up, who do I keep and who do I trade?

1:27	Paul Sporer: I’m a huge Grandal guy. If Schwarber is catching, I do believe that can stunt the bat some as teams want Cs to focus on handling the staff even at the expense of some bat production.

1:27	Comment From Billy Sano is a man child

1:27	Comment From Jacob Do you like the idea of buying Miggy for the playoffs in a H2H league? And how much is too much to give up at 1B?

1:28	Paul Sporer: Yes, I do because I think he’ll be great upon returning. However, you gotta be careful not to pay so much that you don’t make the playoffs altogether

1:28	Comment From Don Who gets traded first: Papelbon, K-Rod, or Clippard?

1:28	Paul Sporer: Pap

1:28	Comment From Thomas in Manhattan Who is the best player the Mets can acquire for Jon Niese and one of their non-elite top 100 prospects? (Brandon Nimmo, Kevin Plawecki, Dom Smith, etc…)

1:29	Paul Sporer: Aramis? I’m not sure Niese is bringing in a game-changer

1:29	Comment From Josh G What are your expectations for Matt Wisler ROS? Usable in a 12 team mixed league?

1:31	Paul Sporer: He could be, but that’d be if things break right for him. I think just a streamer in those leagues

1:31	Comment From Bart Who do you prefer for ROS, Taylor Jungmann or Matt Moore and would you drop either for Ken Giles in anticipation of a Papelbon trade?

1:31	Paul Sporer: Jungmann. I would if i needed SVs badly

1:31	Comment From BallznSrikes My 2 cents: loved the derby, 4 minutes would be ideal

1:31	Comment From Big Joe Mufferaw Rollins or Zobrist ROS?

1:31	Paul Sporer: Z

1:31	Comment From Alex What are your thoughts on Cain and Corbin ROS?

1:32	Paul Sporer: Matt Cain I presume since we’re talking SPs. Those two are close. I think Corbin will have flashes of ’13, but w/only a half left, it only takes a couple of clunkers to tank an ERA and he’s going to have them as every TJ returnee does so I’ll lean Cain ROS

1:32	Comment From Marc Drop A. Russell who can be kept for next year only for a non-keepable Odor?

1:33	Paul Sporer: Depends on your contention status. I like Odor, but I don’t know that his ROS is worth Russell ROS+2016

1:33	Comment From Dave Where do you see the innings limit being set for T. Walker? Seems that with the team out of it, and coming off an injury plagued season, he’s a prime candidate to be shut down

1:34	Paul Sporer: Maybe if they are out of it come September, but their fate can change on a dime still and he could be a huge key. They probably have another 60 IP for him which could get us to the finish line

1:35	Comment From Dave Is Melky someone who may have a nice bounceback 2H? Seems to be hitting much better in the past 30-45 days

1:36	Paul Sporer: Yes, that’s a fantastic name for a buy-low 2H guy. I loved him coming into the season and he’s been a nightmare, but rebounding of late as you suggest. Last calendar month: .879 OPS, .330 AVG with 3 HR and 14 RBIs

1:36	Comment From Josh G Does Jim Johnson get traded with Vizcaino taking over?

1:36	Paul Sporer: I can definitely see it.

1:36	Comment From Ryan “Going for it” in a keeper league: give McCullers and Strickland, get Anibal and AJ Ramos?

1:36	Paul Sporer: Love that even if you weren’t going for it, TBH

1:37	Comment From Pat Hey Paul. Will you rank these MI options for the ROS in an OBP league: Odor, DeShields Jr, Andrus and Segura. Thanks!

1:37	Paul Sporer: Flip Andrus and Segura

1:37	Comment From Big Joe Mufferaw Best site for Keeper leagues is????

1:37	Paul Sporer: they’ve all got their plusses and minuses, but I like CBS

1:37	Comment From Rick FYI Banuelos will hit his innings limit in another ~30 IP. Might move to the bullpen before that.

1:38	Paul Sporer: They put a firm limit on him? I missed that. That definitely changes some of my Banuelos hyping from earlier questions

1:38	Comment From Billy Where do you think Dustin Pedroia slots in when he comes back? Is he worth trying to trade because of his name value?

1:38	Paul Sporer: In the batting order? back at 1 or 2 for sure.

1:39	Comment From Great job on the solo podcast! Doing a podcast by yourself has to be REALLY tough. Keep up the good work! Next time your stuck alone, what if you did a podcast like a chat – fans submit questions you answer rapid fire? What do you think Rendon’s line will be ROS?

1:39	Paul Sporer: I considered getting a bunch of Qs from listeners for the solocast, so I will do that next time I roll solo

1:39	Comment From Guest What’s going on with Colabello’s playing time or lack of it in Toronto/

1:40	Paul Sporer: Just a lot of mouths to feed there and he’s Chris Colabello so he doesn’t exactly have clout to play every game even over guys like Smoak and Valencia

1:40	Comment From Billy Do you think Montas stays up after their doubleheader?

1:41	Paul Sporer: Maaaaybe, though he might just be a pen arm for them this year

1:41	Comment From Slumpbuster Give up Carlos Martinez and Michael Brantley for Gerritt Cole and Lorenzo Cain?

1:41	Paul Sporer: That’s hot. I’d say the slump is busted. :sunglassesemoji:

1:41	Comment From Billy Who says no: Yelich for JD Martinez, real life?

1:42	Paul Sporer: IRL probably the Marlins, but I don’t think the Tigers want to trade JDM at all right now. So maybe both clubs

1:42	Comment From Elf+of+Ellsbury In a keep forever which five would you choose: Bryant, Sano, Correa, Sale, Syndergaard, Cole, Rendon, Freeman, Donaldson?

1:43	Paul Sporer: Bryant or Correa. Really close between them. I favor hitters in this kind of scenario and then Bryant & Correa not only have the overwhelming talent, but also filling a prime position

1:43	Comment From Greg Do we see K Schwarber at any point before September?

1:43	Paul Sporer: Probably, but who really knows?

1:43	Comment From 50-Cent Piece Is Ian Kennedy this bad?

1:43	Paul Sporer: Not this bad, but HRs have always been an issue so this is just the running bad version of that.

1:43	Comment From Its Een What do you expect the rest of the year from Ian Desmond?

1:44	Paul Sporer: I feel like he can’t possibly stay this bad, but maybe he’s just really hurt and trying to play through bc of a contract year? it’s insane how bad he’s been

1:44	Comment From James Hey Paul. Made this trade this morning: I gave Heaney and Posey for Lucroy and Pineda. Redraft league, pretty standard scoring. Who wins?? Thanks

1:44	Paul Sporer: That’s a pretty even up deal. I’m expecting LuCroy to bounce back and I love Pineda so I can get behind it even though you gave the best player

1:44	Comment From Kevin Does Rodney hang up the quiver after this year when his contract expires?

1:45	Paul Sporer: Unless someone hits him with a “I just can’t turn this down” offer, then yes

1:45	Comment From FDR What do you think about the long term prospects for Ruby De La Rosa?

1:46	Paul Sporer: Still quite high. He needs to figure out lefties, but his changeup has some promise

1:46	Comment From Andrew ROS on Deshields please

1:47	Paul Sporer: Maybe 230ish PA of what we saw in the first half? I like him

1:47	Comment From Chuqui Corey Seager for Jorge Soler in dynasty fair?

1:47	Paul Sporer: Yes it’s fair. I want Soler

1:47	Comment From Chuqui Better RoS points league, V-Mart or Pujols?

1:47	Paul Sporer: Still Pujols, but I think VMart will be huge in 2H

1:47	Comment From rosy outlook? Kyle Hendricks and C.J. Cron. Do you like either for the 2H?

1:48	Paul Sporer: Hendricks could be this year’s Shoemaker in that he doesn’t have overwhelming stuff, but when his command and control are on, it works and works well.

1:48	Paul Sporer: Cron could be a decent power source, but I think the 406 PA we’ve seen to date are more or less what we’re going to get

1:48	Comment From Houzer The Joc for the two Tigers trade was a real baseball question! The Tigers can only keep JD relatively cheap for two more years, while they could keep Joc cheap for 5 more years. So in essence .. Price for 3 cheap years of Joc

1:49	Paul Sporer: That’d be something else if they pulled that kind of massive deal at the deadline. i think LAD might say no, though

1:49	Comment From dave when do you decide to throw in the towel in a keeper? im 7th place in an al only w 56 pts and the top 3 have 80 80 70. my team is decent but has underperformed. not sure when/if to start selling

1:51

Paul Sporer: You gotta go through the standings and try to get a realistic handle on how many points you can gain if your guys just play well. Not ELITE and well above expectations, but just play well. If you only see 7-8 attainable points barring MAJOR changes or performance surges then you can start to shift focus toward next year. But if you see 9-10 attainable points just with good, solid performances, then you gotta keep fighting and make the moves to extract those extra coupla points that could bring home the title

1:51	Comment From Antonio Has Tony Cingrani figured anything out or is he going to stink it up again as a starter?

1:51	Paul Sporer: I’m skeptical. Just doesn’t have a deep enough arsenal

1:51	Comment From rob refsnyder what do you expect out of Refsnyder ros?

1:53	Paul Sporer: I think he can be a solid producer. Like a Joe Panik-type perhaps. They said he’ll stick if he’s hitting

1:53	Comment From alex Actually going back to Olivera, when do you see him getting called up? What’s a reasonable ROS projection?

1:53	Paul Sporer: No idea. I’m sorry. Just an impossible situation to figure out right now

1:53	Comment From Derek 10 team keeper league, trade Gausman and Dickerson for Puig; and don’t want to wait for Dickerson this year

1:53	Paul Sporer: Yeah I’m cool with that for sure

1:53	Comment From Joe What do you think of Aaron Judge? Can he be a top 50-60 OF next year?

1:55	Paul Sporer: Yeah that’s not a bad upside for next year. a top 60 OF isn’t AWESOME (Mark Canha is 60th in ESPN’s player rater, Yelich 59, Byrd 61), but it’s still a solid producer and that doesn’t put overwhelming expectations on Judge.

1:55	Comment From Joss Should I be worried about Howie Kendrick? Hit batted-ball profile is terribad, save for the LD% and the very inflated HR/FB

1:56	Paul Sporer: I think he’s fine. Terribad greatly overstates even with the 6-year low in Hard%. I think he’ll continue to be a solid top 10 2B

1:56	Comment From Greg Is Jason Hammel this good? Or am I missing something?

1:56	Paul Sporer: I think he is. http://www.fangraphs.com/fa…

1:56	Comment From Billy What is Yahoo DFS supposed to have to set it apart?

1:56	Paul Sporer: Not sure

1:56	Comment From merv throneberry Does Chapman get traded to Toronto for Osuna & someone else?

1:57	Paul Sporer: He could get moved there, but I wouldn’t know for what. They might prefer to get Pap who could come cheaper

1:57	Comment From STS Hey, there used to be a guy named Eno, on this chat. Just realized he was missing. Hahahaha, nice pinch hitting job!

1:57	Paul Sporer: Thanks! Eno’s on vaca

1:57	Comment From Josh G Taylor Jungmann: smoke and mirrors or is there something there?

1:59

Paul Sporer: Loved him coming out of college, but I’ll admit that was because he went to the University of Texas which is where I went and i saw him a bunch. He isn’t gassing fools or fooling them with great stuff, but he seems like a capable backend type with his groundball tendencies carrying the load. BBs were a major issue in his last two MiLB stops and he’s curbed them in his short pro stint. If he isn’t giving out free passes, he’s got some use

1:59	Comment From Fred What are the chances the Red Sox stage a massive sell-off if they are around 8 GB as we get close to the 7/31 deadline?

1:59	Paul Sporer: Slim, IMO

1:59	Comment From mtsw Will increased competition in DFS eventually result in lower vigs? It’s hard to see how it wouldn’t absent illegal collusion between DFS platforms.

1:59	Paul Sporer: You’d think. A lot thought Yahoo! might come in lower

1:59	Comment From dave concerned about Hahn or does he come back soon?

2:00	Paul Sporer: I’m concerned. Forearm strain is often bad news. Big fan long-term, but his short-term value is severely dinged for me

2:00

Comment From bpqa
Hey Paul! In our keep-forever league where I’m contending and he’s not, I’ve been offered Liriano for Stroman. My DL is overflowing and I could use some SP help right now, so it makes sense on that level. But I’m worried I’d rue the deal for the ten years after this one. What would you do?

2:00	Paul Sporer: Don’t worry about 10 years after. You’re looking to bring home the crown and this GREATLY helps you do that. I’m in on that deal

2:00	Comment From Chuqui Seager too much for JD Martinez in Dynasty?

2:01	Paul Sporer: No, not too much. I assume dynasty leaguers overhype prospects, though, so maybe you could get a tack-on piece even w/JDM’s electric run of late

2:01	Comment From Mike Paul – In a H2H league (I know, not ideal) I just traded David Price, JD Martinez and Lucroy for Miggy, Hanley and Grandal. I’ll be in the playoffs so really just trying to stack up for the stretch run. How’d I do?

2:02	Paul Sporer: You did pretty well, IMO. Obviously it depends on Miggy’s return, but if he’s back in a month, you’re golden

2:02	Comment From Greg What are your thoughts on Karns and Fiers for the second half?

2:03	Paul Sporer: Fiers will prob be more of the same; Karns should be too now that I think about it and that works since he’s been pretty good this year. I’d lean Karns

2:04	Comment From John HI Paul, huge fan! League owner is offering me JZ or Cashner + Yelich for Adam Jones. I have Jones. Your thoughts on the offer?

2:05	Paul Sporer: I’m doing that. The pitcher choice is tough. Cashner has the talent to be elite, but we just haven’t seen it this year, meanwhile JZ is basically back at ’13 levels with great ratios, but modest Ks. I think you gotta go JZ rest of season, but JZ-Yelich for Jones works!

2:06	Comment From DeQuarium Lumpkin Thinking about cutting Sandoval ($15) to get under my salary cap. Only other move would be to shop a $35 Cano. If I can’t move Cano, will cutting Panda come back to bite me?

2:06	Paul Sporer: What kinda league setup?

2:06	Comment From Fred Kind of in a pinch for a SS, since Desmond has been so poor. Would you take A Escobar or Segura, or hold out hope that Desmond finds his groove again?

2:07	Paul Sporer: Where is Alcides’ speed? I’ll go Segura. I loved Desmond coming in, but you gave him a half. I’m ok making the move

2:07	Comment From Pretty Tony Ben Zobrist will certainly out-earn Jimmy Paredes ROS, right?

2:07	Paul Sporer: I think so

2:07	Comment From carl Segura for Latos in a 5×5 NL only league/ reasonable?

2:07	Paul Sporer: Perfectly. For both sides.

2:07	Comment From Josh G Does Aoki have the type of injury that’ll prevent him from running when he returns, or will he pick up where he left off?

2:08	Paul Sporer: I mean, it is a leg injury so it definitely could. Only 71% success rate prior to injury so they might yellow light him a bit

2:08	Comment From TheDudaSubsides Lance Lynn or Tyson Ross ROS?

2:08	Paul Sporer: Lynn barely, but I like Ross for a big 2H so it’s more an endorsement of Lynn than anything against Ross

2:08	Comment From Chuqui Are Dickerson and Springer reliable enough to be # 2 and #3 OFs RoS in a H2H league, or would you want to go get some top-notch reinforcements? Currently have Mekly and Revere as backups.

2:09	Paul Sporer: They’re really good 2-3 OFs when healthy, but it’s scary right now with their health profiles. Melky might end up covering one of them if he’s true Melky rest of way like the guy we’ve seen over the last month-plus

2:09	Comment From Dallas Desperate for steals in a 15 team mixed. Stash Peraza? Or don’t wast the bench spot…

2:09	Paul Sporer: I like it.

2:10	Comment From Toney D Need and upgrade at pitcher. What can I expect to get for Liriano and Hutchinson? 12 team H2H

2:11	Paul Sporer: Well Liriano is a beast, but if you’re pairing those two, you could maybe get a Lynn or Carrasco. I doubt they’d bring in the top level like Cueto-Price. Honestly, I’d rather just hold because Liriano could outperform Lynn or Carrasco pretty easily again in the 2H

2:11	Comment From Mike I’ve somehow ended up with 3 elite shortstops on my roster – Tulo, Hanley, Peralta. Didn’t draft any of them and am looking to move at least one. Who’s a 1-for-1 guy you would target for each of those guys? Any position (or pitching) will do. Who would you prefer to trade?

2:12	Paul Sporer: I’d look to get a big return for one of the first two since Peralta doesn’t have the name value. Fill your biggest need. You can ask for just about anything in a 1-for-1 with those guys. It’s a really big ask to just ask for 1-for-1 targets with very little context.

2:12	Comment From Jack From time Werth is back at MLB level in an OBP league would your rather have him and Puig or Bruce and Pence?

2:12	Paul Sporer: That’s pretty even up, but I’ll take Puig & Werth

2:12	Comment From Chuqui Arcia or Melky RoS?

2:12	Paul Sporer: melky

2:12	Comment From Dallas You’re on fire today, Paul. That is all . .

2:12	Comment From Walt Thoughts on Kang ROS? Playing everyday now at 3B, will his talent show up?

2:13	Paul Sporer: Yes, I’m a fan. I think we’ve already seen some nice bursts of his talent and the everyday PT will help. I’m buying.

2:13	Comment From Kris No incentive to lower vigs when every company is doing it. One DFS platform is going to need to get massive by buying everyone else before they can afford to lower it

2:13	Comment From Joe Would you drop any of Brandon Moss, Melky Cabrera, Shin Soo Choo, or Avasail Garcia for Eddie Rosario?

2:14	Paul Sporer: Nah.

2:14	Comment From Reginald Denton III Thoughts on Marco Estrada 2nd half? Do you like him better than Kyle Hendricks?

2:15	Paul Sporer: Nah. They have similarly non-overpowering stuff, but Hendricks keeps the ball in the yard while Estrada is still pretty HR prone (even his good year is a 1.0 HR/9). I think at best, we get an Estrada repeat. That’s if everything breaks right.

2:15	Comment From Big Joe Mufferaw Roster Crunch needed… do I drop Yan Gomes (I have McCann) or Headley (I have A-Rod and Seager)?

2:15	Paul Sporer: Headley

2:15	Comment From other barry How long will it take for a pitcher to be inducted into the HOF as a Rockie?

2:15	Paul Sporer: OMG. Another 25 years.

2:15	Comment From Walt Lance Lynn and Yan Gomes for Thor and C Maybin? Who wins?

2:16	Paul Sporer: I think the first side still wins

2:16	Comment From Keeper? I hardly know her Hey Paul seriously thanks for answering so many questions. It means I stay through all your chats just in case I think of something an hour in.

2:16	Paul Sporer: Thanks!

2:16	Comment From Joss Moss and Maybin for Sano and Melky, redraft

2:17	Paul Sporer: Fair deal. I don’t have a strong lean. Maybin’s health counters Sano’s lack of track record. Moss and Melky have both been below expectations, but shown signs of coming out of it

2:17	Comment From QuesoJerrry Would you trade Keuchel and Desmond for Justin Upton? My OF is Puig, Gomez and B. Hamilton, and MI is Pedroia and Travis. My staff is excellent, and Puig/Gomez could bounce back, so I’m hesitant. What say you? (keeper league)

2:19

Paul Sporer: Probably not, even as an Upton diehard. If you’re only starting 3 OFs, then you could get into a real pinch where you’re leaving Hamilton on the sidelines and I know his OBP is like five… as in .005… but he’s still stealing like crazy. I buy Keuchel a good bit. Sure, we’ll bake in some regression, but this might also just be his dream season and he goes out for another 90 IP of a 2.50 ERA en route to at least receiving Cy Young votes.

2:19	Comment From Keeper? I hardly know her I dropped A.J. Ramos for Capps in a points league just because of his K Rate. Silly? Also I’m not really competing this year for $$$

2:20	Paul Sporer: Yes. I prefer Ramos. I think Ramos is going to be an elite level closer

2:20	Paul Sporer: Assuming he’s not already

2:20	Comment From Johnny5Alive maybe desmond stays so bad, the cheap mets can afford to sign him in the offseason!

2:20	Paul Sporer: Better than giving Syndergaard for him!

2:20	Comment From Bob Do you see Marcus Semien bouncing back this season or is his current play indicative of who he really is?

2:21	Paul Sporer: more the latter. Solid first two months but it’s not like he had amazing skills so his June swoon that has carried over into July isn’t that surprising. he’s OK, but his position(s) are where the value comes from

2:21	Comment From Mike in H-Town Is Jake McGee droppable in 12-team re-draft? Seems like Box has nailed down that closers job.

2:21	Paul Sporer: Yeah i think you can drop him in that format

2:21	Comment From Kris No hard limit on Banuelos, but 120-130 is what they’ve said. He’s at 94 now

2:22	Paul Sporer: Word. So yeah that curbs his 2H value quite a bit

2:22	Comment From Dave Random player rankings for 2H: Odor, Melky, DeShields

2:22	Paul Sporer: i think that’s probably the order, though if i need speed, DeShields trumps Melky

2:22	Comment From IA Do you think CarGo can have a big 2nd half? The batted ball velocity and fly ball distance are still elite and the plate discipline similar to his productive seasons.

2:23	Paul Sporer: he could, but it’d only be against righties so the volume might not be there. he’s become nothing v. LHP

2:23	Comment From Ryguy Colabello or Napoli ROS?

2:24	Paul Sporer: Can’t believe I’m saying Colabello.

2:24	Comment From Don Drop Soler for Melky?

2:24	Paul Sporer: NO!

2:24	Comment From Marc Votto and a Keepable Buxton for Rizzo

2:24	Paul Sporer: Prefer the pair

2:24	Comment From Johnny5Alive i hate cbs

2:24

Comment From Pirates Hurdles
yuck, CBS’s interface is god awful, you can’t see stat ranges on your roster oage, the add/drop function defaults to the FA list, transactions are muddled with news/advice, It still doesnt display double headers, and worst of all, lineups lock 5min before the 1st game of the day.

2:25	Paul Sporer: Word. I play at all of the sites, maybe I’m just more comfortable w/CBS bc I have several lgs there

2:25	Comment From Johnny5Alive If Aramis is all you can bring in if your the mets, you arent winning a wild card.

2:27

Paul Sporer: Except they got to 47-42 already so I disagree that they can’t eek out a WC with only adding one piece like Aramis. They’re not going to make wholesale changes. Adding Aramis w/Duda recapturing his early season form and Cuddyer even being league average or a couple ticks above (like a 108 wRC+ or something) would be enough with this incredible pitching.

2:27	Comment From Dave Just traded Kipnis and Vogt for Marte. Good deal?

2:27	Paul Sporer: It’s not a bad deal.

2:27	Comment From BigBopper As a Tigers guy canyou shed some insight into bruce rondon’s value going forward? I’ve got himon a dirt cheap contract and would keep him if he might be in line for saves in the future

2:28	Paul Sporer: I think he will eventually get a shot to close, though not this year. Still raw. Still learning to put hitters away. He’s learning that his stuff alone won’t shut down MLB hitters all the time. Gotta sequence better and hit your spots, even at 100 MPH

2:28	Comment From BigBopper Arcia, Jesus Montero, or Rusney Castillo ROS

2:28	Paul Sporer: Arcia, Rusney, Jesus

2:28	Comment From rustydude Any optimism on a 2nd half bounce back for Steve Pearce?

2:29	Paul Sporer: Not really, sorry. Seems 31-year old, 383 PA breakouts aren’t sustainable after all. Who knew?!

2:29	Comment From Come Back Shane Would you hold a $1 Shane Greene in an AL keeper league or is it not worth the roster spot?

2:29	Paul Sporer: I would try to, yes. I still think he has the stuff to become something, but he does need work so it’s a long-term play at this point. He just hasn’t commanded his stuff the way he did last year and for three starts this year

2:29	Comment From realist deep keeper–abreu/desmond vs bryant/alcides?

2:30	Paul Sporer: Pretty even up, there. I lean Bryant ever-so-slightly

2:30	Comment From Josh G Marcus Semien or Jung-ho Kang ROS?

2:30	Paul Sporer: Kang

2:30	Comment From Big Joe Mufferaw Gun to your head… Trout or Harper ROS?

2:31	Paul Sporer: Y’all, call the cops, I have a gun pointed at me. 🙂 Still Trout, but they will both go 1 in a ton of leagues next year and I can’t imagine you can really clown anyone for picking one over the other

2:31	Comment From Dave If you had to take a guess, do we see Matz again this season?

2:31	Paul Sporer: Yes

2:31	Comment From Guy ROS expectations for Tanaka, assuming he doesn’t miss significant time?

2:33

Paul Sporer: If healthy, I think he’s great. Maybe not last year great, but very good. The problem is that HRs can muddle an ERA in no time. The only thing in his skill set that says the 3.63 ERA is legit is that 1.3 HR/9. Everything else points to a much better pitcher. So maybe another half in the mid-3.00s is the downside (again, with health)

2:33

Comment From Johnny5Alive
Should the mets buy or sell? i keep hearing they want zobrist, and i know alderson loves everything beane does, but that is not an upgrade that will improve their chances enough to get to a 1 game playoff AND it will cost too much. They are projected to finish behind the pirates, cubs, and giants. They should sell what they can right? sellers market

2:37	Paul Sporer: it is a seller’s market, but what are they going to sell? I do think Zobrist would be a great acquisition for them because they can move him around. Good Zobrist could be a 2 WAR player the rest of the way and that would be a substantial upgrade for them.

2:37

Comment From CB
Hey Paul, thank you for the advice. I’ll pull the trigger on Sonny then. With that in mind, now that Sano will be gone…who would you keep after Correa/Kluber/Pollock? Cueto (8th round cost, 6th, then has to be thrown back), Salazar (12th, 10th, 8th), Rizzo (2nd), Altuve (4th, 2nd), or Mesoraco (21st, 19th)? Those would be my other options. Again, thanks for the advice.

2:37	Paul Sporer: Cueto is situation dependent since he’s an FA. Maybe just take Rizzo as a 2nd since he’s a 1st rounder

2:38	Comment From Josh G Is Byrd a top 30 OF ROS? I feel he’s continuously underrated.

2:38	Paul Sporer: Top 30 might be a touch high, but top 50 seems right. If you lop off that April, he’s been fantastic. He is underrated bc he’s old and the power was kinda outta nowhere

2:38	Comment From Johnny5Alive holy crap, its 1 oclock already? how did this happen?

2:38	Comment From Josh G Is Jayson Werth worth a stash?

2:39	Paul Sporer: Yeah

2:39	Comment From Mr Met Wouldn’t Jay Bruce look nice in the OF here?

2:39	Paul Sporer: Yes, That could be a good target, but I doubt they wanna bench Cuddyer or Curtis

2:39	Comment From Vaughn Sexron Odds Dickerson plays again this year? The foot injury won’t fully heal without surgery, right?

2:40

Paul Sporer: I still think he’ll try to come back after some rest, so I’d say at last 85% that he plays, but for how long and how well, I don’t really now. Plantar fasciitis has become an injury I run away from. Traded Dickerson the second the foot was a thing earlier this year even though he was still raking

2:40	Comment From MMZ Where does Bruce land?

2:40	Paul Sporer: TBD. Let’s see if Cincy actually really sells. I could see a muted selling that they think is bigger than it really is

2:41	Comment From Dallas Arrieta for Tanaka and Aroldis?

2:41	Paul Sporer: Gimme the duo!

2:41	Comment From Fred Any word on M Montero’s thumb injury? Will we see Schwarber?

2:41	Paul Sporer: haven’t seen any word yet. I do think we see Schwarber if MM hits the DL

2:41	Comment From Fred If healthy, do you see Pence returning to top 20 OF status?

2:42	Paul Sporer: Maybe. He’s more of a compiler which boosts him in the rankings as the season wears on. On a per PA basis, he’s probably more top 30 than top 20

2:42	Comment From Fred Do you see the Angels moving someone to the pen to keep Heaney in the rotation?

2:43	Paul Sporer: Yeah, Shoemaker has relieved before and certainly hasn’t done anything that guarantees him a rotation spot

2:43	Comment From Mike Would you trade JD Martinez to get Miggy in a H2H league where you’re already locked into the playoffs?

2:43	Paul Sporer: Sure

2:43	Comment From As Fan Is Jesse Chavez in the rotation for much longer?

2:44	Paul Sporer: Who would replace him at this point? Might have to stick out of necessity, but could be replaced in August some time.

2:44	Comment From Kris Is Dickerson done for the season? Should I sell him for anything I can get right now? Or just hold at this point

2:45	Paul Sporer: No word that he’s done. I wouldn’t be agianst selling if you could get something useful, but that might be tough

2:45	Comment From KilleBrews Watermelon is best served cold.

2:45	Paul Sporer: Duh.

2:45	Comment From KilleBrews Thoughts on Mat Latos ROS?

2:45	Paul Sporer: Solid if healthy. Skills aren’t too far from pre-2014 levels. I’m a fan.

2:46	Comment From Billy What do I get with Fangraphs +?

2:46	Paul Sporer: All of the player profiles from this year and years past, plus a couple pieces of week from Eno (including a recent one on Gregory Polanco, who was asked about a lot in this chat)

2:47	Paul Sporer:

2:47	Comment From marc I just want to say thank you, youre absolutely killing it right now!

2:47	Comment From Cory Paul, is Puig overrated? His numbers this year are just ok, considering the injuries. His numbers in past years aren’t other worldly. Is it the hope for the high ceiling?

2:49

Paul Sporer: Aren’t they otherworldly, though? .305/.386/.502 for 1072 PA coming into this year. He hasn’t been great this year, but it’s really been the 11 games in July weighing his numbers down. He only has 43 games so that’s a quarter of his work and it’s been abysmal. If he had these numbers 43 games into the season (so mid-May?), I doubt we’d really hear much. Feels worse bc of the calendar, but he hasn’t played a full half

2:49	Comment From Jesse Verlander’s projections look pretty good to me for an AL only league. 4 ERA even, lotta innings, 8k/9. Are they way too optimistic?

2:49	Paul Sporer: No, they’re not. He’s still very talented.

2:49	Comment From Walt Maybin for Jordan Zim? I have 4 good to great OF already, and my SP is solid, so it’s a matter of which one is better overall.

2:50	Paul Sporer: Yes, that’s a good deal.

2:50	Comment From Ryan Still on board with Cashner?

2:50	Paul Sporer: yes, though annoyed and little cool on his rest of season, but still overall a big fan and wouldn’t be surprised if he got right and surged to the finish line

2:50	Comment From Keeper? I hardly know her How long until Buxton is a solid MLB player?

2:50	Paul Sporer: Couple years

2:50	Comment From BigBopper Thanks for the answers and the long chat today (MORE CHAT = MORE FUN = MORE KNOWLEDGE). And, love SaTB podcast too

2:50	Comment From Dallas Would you be looking to trade Harper in a redraft? I feel like he’s already achieved a full season of stats and worried about his injury history…

2:51	Paul Sporer: if you feel that way, then yes. you’ve already gotten fantastic production and he’ll fetch a mint. I’m not really looking to deal him myself, but your rationale is sound

2:51	Comment From CTW Rank in a 8-team triple slash:

2:51	Comment From CTW next 2 years of Posey, 2 years of Donaldson, 3 years of Arenado, 3 years of Mookie

2:52	Paul Sporer: Arenado, Mookie, Donaldson, Posey

2:52	Comment From Rick I don’t think they’ve given a hard limit on Banuelos’ innings, but Mark Bowman with MLB.com has reported it’s likely between 120-130 IP.

2:52	Comment From CP Do you think Anibal Sanchez turns things around in the second half?

2:53

Paul Sporer: If he keeps the ball in the park. It’s that simple… but at the same time so very hard. It’s all about command. Stuff is there. He was the best home run-preventer for two years running and then collapsed this year, I think we could definitely see a big rebound. He’s actually someone who could’ve made my 2H bust-out podcast on Tuesday

2:53	Comment From Mike in H-Town Could you rank Span, Souza, Melky, and Dyson ROS?

2:53	Paul Sporer: I think you just did.

2:53	Comment From Alex What’s the expected K/9 for Nola?

2:53	Paul Sporer: Maybe 7s

2:53	Comment From Keeper? I hardly know her Corey Seager and Odorizzi for Archer?

2:53	Comment From Keeper? I hardly know her Sorry that was in dynasty

2:54	Paul Sporer: The pair is probably better there. Archer’s gap over Odorizzi isn’t Seager so gimme the duo

2:54	Comment From Marc any chance of a Pittsburgh Meet-up in the future?

2:54	Paul Sporer: I don’t know. Going to PNC would rule.

2:54	Comment From Rick Is Patrick Corbin worth holding onto?

2:54	Paul Sporer: Depends on league type.

2:54	Comment From FP Keep or drop Alex Wood in a shallow redraft roto. Killing ratios.

2:55	Paul Sporer: The WHIP Is filthy, but the ERA was 2.85 in 10 starts prior to the Coors outing. Yeah I’m OK replacing him if you’ve got a solid arm on the wire

2:55	Comment From Mike in H-Town What do I do with Corey Dickerson? Droppable in 12-team redraft? I haven’t heard anything on him in weeks, and I don’t have a DL spot.

2:55	Paul Sporer: if you don’t have a DL spot, I understand it, but I have a hard time just cutting him without any news. We still haven’t heard anything that says he’s out for the year

2:55	Comment From Alex Time to give up on Semien? I can drop him for Alcides or Brad Miller in an OPS league. I don’t need SB, just counting stats

2:56	Paul Sporer: Yeah I’d take Miller. I’m not a huge Semien guy. I overrated the shit outta him in my May update. Got drunk on the HR/SB pacing like a twerp

2:56	Comment From Jake The Snake Roberts Who are some names that will be future fantasy aces in the next few years?

2:58	Paul Sporer: Syndergaard, Stroman, Rodon, Gausman, Wheeler

2:58	Comment From Adam My McCutchen for his Bryant, Hosmer, and Moustakas. 10-team roto. Would you pull the trigger?

2:58	Paul Sporer: Who are the Royals replacing is the key?

2:58	Comment From KilleBrews Danggit man give me some feedback on Mat Latos ROS..

2:58	Paul Sporer: I did. Relax. Hella questions.

2:58	Comment From IA Re: Brandon Belt: He’s swung at 82% of pitches in the zone but only 27% of pitches outside the zone. That’s some impressive pitch recognition.

2:58	Paul Sporer: I really like him.

2:58	Comment From Big+hurt What do you think of Latos’ long term prospects? I’m looking to buy low on him in a dynasty league (18 team). I’m thinking about selling high on Montgomery and dumping vmart. Thanks

2:59	Paul Sporer: I like selling high on Monty, but I wouldn’t dump VMart. Get Latos, but not for VMart

2:59	Comment From Rowdy Roddy Piper I need an OF and have solid pitching. Deal David Price for Cespedes or for Adam Jones? Or hold Price and stick with Soler/Kemp/Calhoun/Pence?

2:59	Paul Sporer: I could do either OF, but I prefer Cespedes personally

2:59	Comment From dave replacing dl Hahn do you pick up Tazawa,Dickey, Medlen, Porcello, Johnson, May,Feliz, Doubront? please rank, or even top 3

3:00	Paul Sporer: Taz, Dickey, and May (wish he had a rotation spot)

3:00	Comment From Phil Was offered Sandoval for Sano 3B for a 3B in a re-draft league. Am I crazy for holding onto Sano?

3:00	Paul Sporer: No hold onto Sano

3:00	Comment From BigBopper Rusney Castillo. He’s 28. He’s not impressed so far. My team is out of it. Should I take a flier on Jesus Montero who is somehow THREE YEARS YOUNGER?!?!?!

3:01	Paul Sporer: I think I’m just gonna be late on Montero if he ever pans out .. I can’t get on board yet

3:01	Comment From rustydude Speaking of potential 2nd half buy low candidates, do you think Jaso holds onto the #1 spot in the batting order? I have him in an AL-only OBP league.

3:01	Paul Sporer: Yes, very high on him as a sneaky good C, espec. in OBP

3:02	Comment From Adam Yovani Gallardo has a higher bWAR (3.4) than Hamels, Cueto or Samardzija but seem to be flying under the radar? What kind of package do you think it will take to get him? Possible bargain?

3:02	Paul Sporer: I’d take all three over him by a LOT. He’s been running hot because he’s a veteran pitcher who can get guys out, but he’s nowhere near this level in terms of true talent. I’d tack a full run onto his 2H ERA at least (3.62)

3:02	Comment From Gabe I can keep 3 of these pitchers for a keeper league. Who do you like most, who should I look to move for draft capital?David Price, Cueto, Salazar, Pineda, Kluber, Keuchel

3:03	Paul Sporer: Kluber is still my favorite. He, Price, and Cueto will give you the biggest returns.

3:03	Comment From Billy Is Ottoneu worth the price?

3:03	Paul Sporer: Yeah if you like that kind of league format. It’s very detailed and a lot of fun if you’re ready to dive into it

3:03	Comment From Josh G Jesse Chavez’s last four starts have been awful. Time to cut him loose or is this just a blip?

3:04	Paul Sporer: Could be wearing down some, but I’m not sure they have a replacement just yet so they could let him work it out. I’d be shopping for a replacement, though. If you dont’ get rid of him now, you will still want to relatively soon

3:04	Comment From Maxamuz I leave for an hour and you’re still here. #respect

3:04	Comment From Christobel Leave for 3 hours, come back, and you’re still chatting. You’re the man Paul.

3:04	Comment From Roy Better stash in an OBP league where I’ve still got a shot this year: Berrios or Conforto?

3:04	Paul Sporer: I think Berrios comes up this year so since you’re contending go with him

3:04	Comment From Brad Searching for an eventual closer with some upside… Strickland, Jeffress, Will Smith or Kela?

3:05	Paul Sporer: Eventual meaning ’15? If so, you gotta go with your favorite of the two Brewers. If you’re looking more long-term, then Strickland is a great option. I could even get behind Strickland as a possible ’15 guy, but I think K-Rod HAS to get moved opening up the MIL situation

3:05	Paul Sporer: Hey y’all, I’m gonna have to get going soon, i have to record the pod and eat lunch

3:05	Comment From marc also as a pittsburgh Native, “yinz” should come down. PNC is absolutely stunning. not a bad seat in the house

3:06	Paul Sporer: I’m dying to go

3:06	Comment From marc youve effectively killed 3 hours of my work day. i cant say thank you enough

3:06	Paul Sporer: Wood!

3:06	Comment From Keeper? I hardly know her What are your thoughts on Iwakuma ROS? Do you think his injury hurts his value significantly?

3:07	Paul Sporer: It has hurt his value significantly for sure, but this is when you buy low. This is an ACTUAL buy low. People say Carlos Carrasco is a buy low bc he has a 4.07 ERA, but you’re still paying for him. With Iwakuma, he’s basically free now. I like him as a gamble

3:07	Comment From Question What are vigs?

3:07	Paul Sporer: The charge at a DFS site for playing the game. So you put in $10 for a game and they take $1 off of that

3:07	Comment From Joss Cant believe this is still going, writing your name down for sure.

3:07	Comment From Houzer Paul- have you called Guinness for the length of this chat yet?

3:07	Paul Sporer: This isn’t even close to my longest 🙂

3:08	Comment From Walt Come to Philly for a meet up! Great seats still available at Citizens Bank!

3:08	Paul Sporer: Been to Citizen’s a bunch bc my best friend used to live in Philly. Great park.

3:08	Paul Sporer:

3:08	Comment From Nathan Hanley for Archer, redraft. Who wins?

3:08	Paul Sporer: I generally lean hitter in those 1-for-1s

3:08	Comment From Ryan Thoughts on Jake Peavy the rest of the year?

3:08	Paul Sporer: Just OK. Not quite like his SF run of ’14. Maybe a 3.75 ERA?

3:08	Comment From Bob Barker You should note that that 47-42 record began as like 15-3. That’s 32-39 since.

3:10

Paul Sporer: true, true. that’s re: Mets for those not following. They were unstoppable w/even a modicum of offense. I feel like Cuddyer and Duda getting on track plus an acquisition (Zobrist preferably, but Aramis, too) would be enough to stabilize the O w/Curtis, Murphy, and TdA being solid-average or a tick better.

3:10	Comment From Johnny5Alive what they should do is bring up conforto and send cuddyer tot he glue factory

3:11	Paul Sporer: Well they won’t obviously

3:11	Comment From Doug McGee or Capps in a 12 team, redraft holds league?

3:11	Paul Sporer: McGee probably better for the HDs

3:11	Comment From bearproof You think Pomeranz closes if Clippard is moved?

3:12	Paul Sporer: Could. Really up in the air, espec. w/OAK who doesn’t just follow convention

3:12	Comment From Keeper? I hardly know her Thanks again Paul have a good Pod

3:12	Comment From Cubs! Looks like Schwarber is getting recalled. Montero do the DL…

3:12	Comment From BC Drop Kyle Gibson, my worst SP, for Schwarber?

3:13	Paul Sporer: he’s the worst you can cut right now? if so, then sure bc Schwarber seems to be in line for a call

3:13	Comment From BC OBP League – Granderson or Aaron Hicks ROS?

3:13	Paul Sporer: CURTIS!

3:13	Comment From Walt Need a catcher after trading Vogt. Offer up Maybin for Grandal or Martin or McCann? Which one would you do that for? Or all 3?

3:14	Paul Sporer: Any of em is fine, tbh. I’m a Grandal honk from the spring (had him highest among the rankers at 10 I think… now 2 in latest ranks)

3:14	Comment From BC Drop Lucroy for Schwarber OBP?

3:14	Paul Sporer: No, that’s too much.

3:14	Comment From Walt Schwarber ROS if he stays up? Where would you place him in your rankings?

3:15	Paul Sporer: Not sure. Gonna update them in a few minutes, though. Let’s get it confirmed first. But at least top 12 I’d imagine

3:15	Comment From PatrickMo I’m looking to trade Matt Moore, I’m not high on him. Some still are, apparently. Any specific position players I should target?

3:15	Paul Sporer: Nah, just see what you can get. I’m not super high on his ’15 prospects. Still a long-term fan

3:16	Paul Sporer: OK y’all, I gotta roll for real. Hopefully I’ll be back again soon. Take care. Hit me up on twitter @sporer if I missed your question and you want it answered still

3:16	Paul Sporer:

BAL	CHW	LAA
BOS	CLE	OAK
NYY	DET	SEA
TBR	KCR	TEX
TOR	MIN	HOU

ATL	CHC*	ARI
MIA	CIN	COL
WSN	MIL	LAD
NYM*	PIT	SDP*
PHI	STL	SFG