After the Detroit Tigers beat the Houston Astros in the opener of their Wild Card series, I wrote that while Tarik Skubal wasn’t perfect, he was very good, and that was enough to lead his team to a 3-1 win. The same was true in Game 2 of the ALDS, although this time he wasn’t the biggest story. On an afternoon where the ace left-hander hurled seven scoreless innings, Kerry Carpenter came off the bench and hit the biggest home run of his life against a lights-out closer. When the dust had settled, the Tigers had evened their series against the Cleveland Guardians at one game apiece with a 3-0 win.

The matchup between Skubal and Matthew Boyd offered both a contrast in styles and, at least on paper, a mismatch. After undergoing Tommy John surgery last year, the 33-year-old Boyd wasn’t offered a major league contract during the offseason, and he remained unsigned until June, when he signed a one-year deal with Cleveland for an undisclosed salary. He appeared in only eight big league games during the regular season. As it turned out, Boyd ended up matching this season’s likely American League Cy Young winner pitch-for-pitch for four-plus innings before the Guardians turned to what has been baseball’s best bullpen this season.

The early frames accentuated the contrast in styles. Through three innings, Boyd relied heavily on soft stuff, throwing more changeups than fastballs, while Skubal relied primarily on high-90s heaters, mostly leaving his own plus changeup in his back pocket. Hitters on both sides were left floundering. By the time the Guardians batted in the bottom of the fifth, the Tigers had the game’s only four hits, and one of them was of the infield-dribbler variety. Read the rest of this entry »

Justyn-Henry Malloy was in the Atlanta Braves organization when he appeared as a guest on FanGraphs Audio in October 2022, this while finishing up his first full professional season in the Arizona Fall League. He became a Tiger soon thereafter. In early December of that year, Detroit acquired the now-24-year-old outfielder, along with Jake Higginbotham, in exchange for Joe Jiménez.

Then a promising-yet-unpolished 2021 sixth-round pick out of Georgia Tech, Malloy was described in our trade recap as possessing “a combination of power and patience.” It was the latter that stood out most. Plate discipline was the youngster’s carrying tool, as evidenced by a .438 OBP as a collegian and a .408 OBP across three levels in the minors. Despite a higher-than-ideal strikeout rate and questions about his defensive future — he’d recently transitioned to left field from the hot corner — Malloy seemed well positioned to join a young Tigers lineup in the coming seasons.

He arrived, at least in part, this summer. After doing his thing in Toledo — his stat line with the Triple-A Mud Hens this season included a .403 OBP and a 129 wRC+ — Malloy made his MLB debut in early June, and with the exception of brief demotion in late August remained on the roster throughout. His numbers were admittedly not great. In 230 plate appearances against big-league pitching he slashed just .203/.291/.366 with eight home runs. Moreover, a pedestrian 10% walk rate belied the discerning-eye approach that helped him get there.

How different is the present day Justin-Henry Malloy from the up-and-coming prospect I’d talked to two years ago? I asked him that question when the Tigers played in Chicago on the final weekend of the regular season. Read the rest of this entry »

How the New York Yankees choose to deploy Clay Holmes throughout what they hope will be a long postseason run is uncertain, and the same is true for how he’ll perform in whichever role he assumes. The 31-year-old right-hander had a career-best 30 saves this season, but he was also charged with an big league-worst 13 blown saves. Displaced as the team’s closer by Luke Weaver in September, Holmes logged just one save in the season’s final month, that in the club’s last game.

His overall numbers were solid. Over 67 appearances comprising 63 innings, the sinkerballer put up a 3.14 ERA, a 3.02 FIP, and a 25.1% strikeout rate. He also killed a lot of worms, as evidenced by a 65% groundball rate that ranked second-highest among hurlers to throw at least 50 innings, behind only Tim Hill’s 68.2%.

Inducing groundballs has been Holmes’ M.O. ever since he debuted with the Pirates in 2018. He has a career groundball rate of 66.3%, with a high-water mark of 75.8% in 2022, his first full season in pinstripes. (The veteran reliever was acquired by New York from Pittsburgh in July 2021 in exchange for Diego Castillo and Hoy Park.)

As for playoff experience, his résumé is promising. While past performance is by no means a future guarantee, Holmes has nonetheless allowed just three hits over eight innings in six postseason appearances. Given that — and his 74 saves over the past three regular seasons — the 6-foot-5 hurler is battle tested when it comes to late-inning opportunities.

Holmes talked about his signature pitch, and how his approach hasn’t changed much over the years, when the Yankees visited Fenway Park in mid-September.

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David Laurila: You spent 10 years in the Pirates system before coming to New York. In terms of pitching philosophy — including what was emphasized in the development process — how different was Pittsburgh compared to here?

Clay Holmes: “I think ‘different’ is the key word. The onset of technology has happened pretty fast. To compare what you consider’ best’ and ‘right’ today to ‘best’ and ‘right’ when I was first drafted, you’re talking about two completely different atmospheres and settings in terms of where the game is. Read the rest of this entry »

A day after Jared Goff was perfect on Monday Night Football — the Detroit Lions quarterback went 18-for-18 with a pair of touchdown passes — Tarik Skubal was simply very good, though that was enough for the Tigers to win the opener of their best-of-three Wild Card series against the Houston Astros. In a game the team probably needed to win — losing with their ace on the mound would have put the Cinderella club squarely behind the eight ball — Skubal threw six scoreless innings to help lead Detroit to a 3-1 win.

He obviously didn’t do it alone. A.J. Hinch’s mix-and-match bullpen threw the most innings in the majors this season, and they sealed the deal against a normally potent Houston lineup. The unheralded yet talented quartet of Will Vest, Tyler Holton, Jason Foley, and Beau Brieske combined to hold the lead — albeit not without a white-knuckle scare in the ninth. As for Detroit’s hitters, they didn’t exactly knock down the fences, but they scored enough to support the hurlers. Read the rest of this entry »

The Detroit Tigers have been baseball’s hottest team, rattling off 31 wins in 43 games to go from eight games under .500 to 11 games over and into the postseason for the first time in a decade. That they’ve done so is nothing short of remarkable. Not only were most outside expectations relatively low coming into the campaign, the A.J. Hinch-led team has dominated September with a starting staff largely comprising of Tarik Skubal, unheralded rookie Keider Montero, and an array of openers. On the season, Detroit Tigers starters have thrown 748-and-a-third innings, the fewest in the majors (notably with a 3.66 ERA, fourth best in the majors).

There is obviously more to why the Tigers have emerged as a surprise team — not to mention a legitimate postseason contender — than the presence of an ace left-hander and Hinch’s expertise in mixing and matching starters and relievers. That is a deeper dive than fits here in Sunday Notes, but I did ask the “Why are the Tigers good?” question to three people who saw them sweep a series just this past week. I asked a second question as well: “What was the atmosphere like at Comerica Park?”

“From an atmosphere standpoint it was one of the best we’ve seen this year,” said Tampa Bay Rays broadcaster Andy Freed. “What impressed me most is that our first game there was supposed to be a night game, and because of rain coming in it was moved to the day. We thought, ‘What are they going to get, 5,000 people?’ It was a Tuesday and school was in session, but they got a great crowd. People decided they were still going to come to the baseball game. It reminded me how great of a sports town Detroit is. And they were into every pitch. It was the closest I’ve felt to a postseason atmosphere all year, except for maybe Philadelphia. Read the rest of this entry »

The chances of Bailey Ober’s start on Sunday sending the Minnesota Twins to the postseason have taken quite a hit in the last 24 hours. A 13-inning loss to the Miami Marlins dropped the September-swooning club to three games out in the Wild Card race with just three left to play. Still, whatever his team’s recent struggles, from a personal standpoint, the 29-year-old right-hander has had a successful season. Over 30 starts comprising 173 2/3 innings, Ober has a 12-8 record to go with a 3.94 ERA, a 3.81 FIP, a 27.1% strikeout rate, and 2.9 WAR. Enjoying what has objectively been a career-best year, he has stood tall in the Twins rotation.

I sat down with Ober on the penultimate weekend of the season to talk about his continuing evolution as a pitcher. I also checked in with Twins pitching coach Pete Maki to get his perspective on the 6-foot-9 hurler’s development path. The two first worked together in 2018, one year after Minnesota drafted Ober out of the College of Charleston in the 12th round.

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David Laurila: You have a good understanding of pitching analytics and how they can positively impact success. How has that process evolved for you?

Bailey Ober: “I feel like I started getting into all that stuff when I got drafted. We have an unbelievable team here with guys who provide all that information, and it’s kind of up to us if we want to take it and use it to our benefit. Once I got drafted into the minor leagues, I was very interested in seeing all the data. Over the years, you’re always learning. There is always new stuff coming up. For instance, there are new stats, new analytic tools to be used. Every year I’ve been taking in what I can, and continuing to learn.” Read the rest of this entry »

The Chicago White Sox haven’t had much go their way this year, and that includes the pitching department. Only Garrett Crochet (4.4) and the since-traded Erick Fedde (2.6) have produced as much as 1.3 WAR. Those things said, a few young pitchers have shown promise, one of them being 24-year-old rookie right-hander Jonathan Cannon. Over 119 2/3 innings, the 2022 third-round pick out of the University of Georgia has logged a 4.37 ERA, a 4.57 FIP, and 1.2 WAR — not sexy numbers, but thanks to a five-pitch mix and a cerebral approach to his craft, his potential is real. Prior to the season, Eric Longenhagen assigned Cannon a 45 FV, calling him “a high-floored no. 4/5 starter prospect thanks to his repertoire depth and command.”

Cannon discussed his M.O. on the mound when the White Sox visited Fenway Park earlier this month.

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David Laurila: You’re primarily known for your sinker, which you’ve thrown more than any of your other pitches this season. It’s also the pitch you’ve had the least success with from a statistical standpoint. Why is that?

Jonathan Cannon: “For the most part, it’s been the command of it being bad. If you look at the best sinkerballers in the game right now — I’m thinking guys like Logan Webb — what makes their sinkers so good is they do a really good job of commanding it down-and-away to righties. It kind of sets up everything else. When they’re missing, they’re missing down, but more middle. Right now, I feel like I command the outer half well, but a lot of them are elevated to around thigh high. When it leaks into the middle and is thigh high, I don’t get a lot of groundballs with it. That’s kind of been the main focus for me. When I do miss, I want to miss where I’m getting a groundball rather than a hard line drive into the gap. Read the rest of this entry »

Prior to talking to him in Wrigley Field’s home clubhouse in late August, my knowledge of Ethan Roberts mostly consisted of his being a 27-year-old, right-handed reliever with limited big-league experience and a high spin rate. I also knew he’d had Tommy John surgery in 2022 as that was mentioned, along with his spin, when he was blurbed as an honorable mention on our 2023 Chicago Cubs Top Prospects list.

The 2018 fourth-round pick out of Tennessee Technological University has added to his résumé since we spoke and now has 27 appearances for his career, 18 of them this year. His numbers in the current campaign include a 2.66 ERA and 23 strikeouts over 23-and-two-thirds innings. Three days ago he tossed a scoreless frame against the Washington Nationals and was credited with his first big-league win.

Roberts learned that he spun the ball well upon entering pro ball. Not long thereafter, he learned that not all spin is created equal.

“It was my first time around technology,” explained Roberts. “I threw a bullpen and my fastball was spinning pretty high. It was spinning like 2,800 [RPMs] —right now it’s more 2,600-2,700 — and I actually throw it very supinated. It’s kind of like a natural cutter. But yeah, when I got on technology there, in Arizona [at the Cubs spring training complex], I was like, ‘I don’t know what any of this means, but thanks for telling me.’”

Which brings us to his spin characteristics, as well as to pitch classifications. Read the rest of this entry »

Anthony Santander might be the most underrated hitter in the American League, at least from a national perspective. Overshadowed by the young talent on his own team, the 29-year-old Baltimore Orioles outfielder has 102 home runs and a 123 wRC+ over the past three seasons. This year’s numbers are especially impressive. A reliable cog in manager Brandon Hyde’s lineup — he’s played in 145 of the team’s 151 games — the switch-hitter from Margarita, Venezuela, has hit 41 homers while putting up a 129 wRC+ and a club-best 95 RBI this season.

The degree to which he remains under the radar is relative. Santander enjoyed his first All-Star selection this summer, and he is currently getting increased attention due to his forthcoming free agency. Accolades have nonetheless been in shorter-than-deserved supply, and that includes our own coverage here at FanGraphs. As evidenced by his player page, Santander’s name isn’t in the title of any piece we’ve published prior to the one you’re reading. As good as he’s been, that is something that needed to be corrected.

Santander sat down to talk hitting one day after smacking his 40th home run of the season last week at Fenway Park.

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David Laurila: How did you first learn to hit, and what has been your development path from there?

Anthony Santander: “My dad introduced me to baseball when I was 4 years old, and when I was young I was a pure right-handed hitter. I didn’t start switch-hitting until I started working to become a pro when I was 15 or 16. That took a little bit, because it was new for me.”

Laurila: Why did you start switch-hitting? Read the rest of this entry »

Colton Cowser is a leading contender for American League Rookie of the Year honors, and his power numbers are among the reasons why. The 24-year-old Baltimore Orioles outfielder has 20 home runs to go with a .240/.321/.431 slash line and a 115 wRC+. San Diego’s Jackson Merrill (23) is the only rookie in either league to have left the yard more times.

That Cowser is clearing fences with some regularity is in many ways unsurprising. At a listed 6-foot-2, 220 pounds, his build is that of a basher. That said, his profile going forward wasn’t entirely clear when he was first featured here at FanGraphs in February 2022. Drafted fifth overall the previous summer out of Sam Houston State University, Cowser had propelled just a pair of baseballs over outfield barriers in 149 low-level plate appearances. Moreover, as I related to him in our offseason conversation, Baseball America had recently cited his “impressive walk-to-strikeout ratio,” adding that his swing path is “presently more geared toward contact versus power.”

The numbers suggest that Cowser is no longer the same style of hitter. After having more free passes than Ks in college and in his first taste of professional action, the left-handed-swinging slugger has fanned a team-worst 157 times this season with a 30.5% strikeout rate and a 9.5% walk rate. He’s also hitting more balls in the air, as evidenced by his 38.2 FB%. That number was just 26.9 in his two-plus years down on the farm.

Cowser’s thoughts on making less contact as he settles in to what promises to be a productive MLB career? Read the rest of this entry »