2023 MLB Draft: Day One Recap

Below is a team-by-team analysis of last night’s draft activity. Remember that you can find more detailed scouting reports and tool grades for the players drafted over on The Board.

Arizona drafted a mix of floor and upside on Day One, adding a relatively stable, Top 100 prospect to their mix in Troy before taking two college dev projects in Grice and Groover. Groover is one of the most exciting players in the draft because his bat speed is ridiculous, though he needs refinement in many areas, especially defense. Lefties with a breaking ball as good as Grice’s tend to pan out, if only as relievers, but Grice could break out if he focuses solely on pitching.

It was a huge coup for the Braves to get Waldrep in the back third of the first round. I consider him the second-best pitcher in the entire draft and a Top 100 prospect. The rest of the Braves’ first day doesn’t look great. They took two guys I have projected as relievers in Hackenberg (who had a nearly 6.00 ERA this year) and Kuehler (who struggled late in the year). Hackenberg has a key Braves prospect attribute, though: breaking ball command. Atlanta has had success augmenting prospects for the better, especially when they have this skill already on board when they’re acquired.

Bradfield was drafted exactly where I had him ranked. Horvath continues the Orioles’ trend of drafting pull-heavy college performers. Similar to Hackenberg, Baumeister didn’t perform well enough in college to be a slam dunk second rounder, but the Orioles like to take pitchers with good natural breaking balls and he has that. They’ll try to sync up his delivery and develop the rest.

It was a great first day for the BoSox. Teel fell into their lap at 14 and then Zanetello, who I had ranked 31st, was waiting there in the middle of the second round. While eavesdropping on folks in the media area, I overheard discussion about Teel being slot, which would be surprising. Zanetello might be over, though, so Boston may have to save some pool space on Day Two to fit him in.

I had Shaw ranked 18th, but I don’t think he was a reach or anything like that. He should have gone in the middle third of the first round and he did, another chalky detail in a chalky draft. I’m a little less enamored with the Wiggins pick because (assuming his rehab goes as expected) he already does the thing the Cubs seem to be able to coax out of their pitching prospects: he throws hard. He’s a pure relief prospect who needs help in every other area if he’s going to be a starter in pro ball, and the Cubs track record of improving that skill in their pitching prospects isn’t great.

I’m not on an island in thinking that the Gonzalez pick was a reach, but I am in the minority — he had realistic homes around pick 10 or so. I worry he’s going to Bleday, as like JJ Bleday, he swings inside so many fastballs riding up and away from him. The Taylor pick marks the second consecutive year the Sox have taken a guy coming off of TJ, and a vertical fastball/curveball type at that.

This was as close to a “draft for need” haul as there was on Day One. Lowder and Floyd should quickly help the Reds pitching staff at the big league level while their young core hitters blossom. Stafura adds a good hit tool to the system and indicates a departure from the Hinds/Hendrick/Allen types who do everything but hit. I was a tad lower on each of these guys compared to where they were picked, but I still like all three and know people around baseball think this was a big first-day haul.

I had Ralphy in the early second round, so that was a bit of a reach for me, but there were other teams on him in that range and I think Cleveland may have picked San Diego’s pocket. Walters’ ability to throw strikes with his style of fastball is very exciting now that he’s in this system. He has a shot to be another James Karinchak type of reliever. If Walters (who remember was drafted last year and didn’t sign, giving him a little less leverage now as an older prospect) is under-slot, then that bonus pool space might be allocated to Clemmey. The Guardians don’t shy away from high school pitching in the draft, to mixed results.

I can’t imagine the culture shock Chase Dollander is about to experience going from the frat house of Tennessee’s college baseball program to a buttoned-up org like the Rockies. I think it’s fair to anticipate he’ll be pushed quickly in the same way Gabe Hughes has been so far. The Rockies have taken their fair share of college relievers in the past (Tommy Doyle, Ben Bowden) and scooped up another one very high in the draft in Sullivan, who I liked, just not in the second round. Carrigg is one of the more fun players in the draft and he blew up the Combine, especially the throwing drills. He’s going to be a cool multi-positional utilityman.

Detroit got two top-20 talents and two of the higher-floored high school prospects in the draft in Clark and McGonigle. I’m a little skeptical Anderson is going to keep hitting like he did this year. More on that in his scouting blurb.

It sounds like several teams in the Comp round were dying for Matthews to fall to them. His report reads a lot like George Springer’s did when he came out of UConn: huge bat speed, plus runner, feel to hit needs polish. The vertical break on Treadwell’s fastball is right in line with what Houston tends to target in the draft.

Mitchell (likely under slot) and Wolters (maybe over) provide a much needed injection of upside into the Royals system, which is arguably the worst in the sport. Mitchell has a lot of work to do on defense, but he has rare power for a catcher. Wolters is the latest in a recent run of highly priced high school arms in Kansas City. The Royals may have saved on Roccaforte to make their bonus pool math work.

Again, chalk. Teams were putting the Angels on near-ready hitters who they could rush up to the big leagues as soon as possible, and Schanuel is arguably the most polished hitter in the draft.

The Dodgers had their pocket picked by Miami (Thomas White) and diverted to elite speedster Kendall George, who I expect will sign for less than slot. That should give Los Angeles the flexibility go over at some point during Day Two. Gelof finished his college career with two consecutive years of .700 slugging percentages and at least 20 home runs.

It takes guts to use a top 10 pick on a high school pitcher, let alone to use two first round picks on high school arms in the same draft. I think you could argue the Marlins got the two best prep pitchers in the whole draft and that it makes sense to lean into the org’s core competency, which is developing arms.

The Wilken pick is perhaps a bit of a departure for Milwaukee. Yes, they’ve picked the Wes Clarkes of the world late in previous drafts, but they tend to use high picks on Eric Brown Jr. types, up-the-middle contact bats. Knoth is in Milwaukee’s wheelhouse, another power pitcher starter kit with a vertical fastball/curveball combo. Boeve continues Milwaukee’s trend of drafting smaller program guys.

Minnesota took the final player of the consensus top five available in Jenkins. The rest of their draft was mildly surprising. Soto throws hard, but I didn’t expect his sink-oriented heater to appeal to a more progressive team’s sensibilities. Keaschall checks a lot of data-related boxes and definitely has plus athleticism to the eye, but I’m not sure his feel to hit was actually tested by the Pac-12.

Houck will probably cost the Mets a lot of extra pool space, which is why they drafted (with his permission) Sproat, who is an older college prospect and therefore likely signable for a below-slot price.

I don’t have much to say about the Lombard pick. He went right near where I ranked him and I mocked him to the Yankees in my first mock. It will be interesting to see how they fit Lombard into their crowded complex-level infield.

Wilson is rumored to be signing a below-slot deal so, in the end, the A’s will probably pay him on par with about where I have him ranked on The Board. I hope they do more with the savings than just sign Naylor, who I consider more of a bat speed flier than a multi-million dollar prospect. I just don’t think he’s going to hit. With Henry Bolte in last year’s class, that marks two straight years the A’s have taken a guy with a questionable hit tool near the top of their class.

Good value again this year for the Phillies, who end up with one of the more promising high schoolers in the draft, a player who many expected would go prior to this. Miller might already be their best hitting prospect.

This is a sexy group. Skenes was a mild surprise at 1.1, but he’s ready to help a big league team and the time is nigh for the Pirates to actually contend. Jebb is like a Ji Hwan Bae clone, and if he came in under slot to help facilitate the Mueth pick, his selection looks even better.

Folks in rival war rooms thought San Diego was on Ralphy Velazquez at pick 25. The Guardians took him just two spots earlier and, as is often the case when the player you wanted goes right in front of you, the Padres scrambled to find someone with whom they could cut a deal. Head gives the Padres yet another high-upside athlete near the bottom of their farm.

Even though I’m apprehensive about both of their high schoolers, I really like the Giants’ draft so far because I think Whitman was incredible value at pick 69. The Bryce Eldridge two-way experiment should eventually lead him to a full-time hitting role, but the Giants have some experience working with two-way guys. The Walker Martin second round deal was a pervasive pre-draft rumor coming from the crew who scouts the four corners.

The Mariners’ complex-level team is going to be loaded after the draft now that they’ve added three high-upside high schoolers to their farm. Even among that group, there’s a well-rounded collection of floor (Farmelo’s defense), upside risk (Peete’s power and projection), and hit tool stability (Emerson). With those three in the fold, the Williamson pick is likely to be way under slot. Williamson is a high effort R/R third baseman with a weird bat wrap and a slice-and-spray approach.

I don’t have much to say here, as Davis was mocked to St. Louis before the draft. The recent history of Pac-12 hitters in pro ball is not good and the Cardinals are familiar with that (Ryan Holgate), but they went back to the well in Tucson to select Davis.

I thought the Rays’ three Day One picks would enable them to get creative, and maybe try to move someone very talented back to their third or fourth pick. Instead they caught a falling Taylor, who was great value where they got him, took another college performer in Ledbetter, and a “Rays Special” in Santana. Santana is a compact, switch-hitting shortstop, right up Tampa Bay’s alley.

The Rangers were viewed as Langford’s floor on draft day and they ended up getting their guy. Langford runs well enough to play center field, but his feel for the outfield is awful. He could probably move quickly as a DH if the Rangers want him in Arlington ASAP.

Nimmala struck out a lot during the spring, which is why he fell. Is he a righty Nolan Gorman, who K’d a ton as a senior but panned out anyway, or is he Keoni Cavaco? It seemed likely that a team that cares a lot about draft day age would be the one to catch him, and that’s why I mocked Nimmala to Toronto in my first go.

The Nationals now have two star-level outfielders in their farm system in Crews and James Wood. Morales had a mid-first round grade from me and was incredible value in the second round.