Player X should be in the Hall of Fame because Player Y is in the Hall of Fame is a common argument. As often as not, a good counter argument can be made that neither is deserving —Y was a marginal candidate, and enshrining X would further water down what is meant to be a select group. If you’re an advocate of a “small hall.” that would be your view. If you’re in the “big hall” camp, X-and-Y debates are more likely to strike your fancy.

With that in mind, let’s compare Vladimir Guerrero — on the ballot for the first time — with Jim Rice, who is often cited as a marginal Hall of Famer. Outfielders known for their offensive prowess, they had careers of equal duration.

Guerrero had 9.059 plate appearances, 2,590 hits, and 972 extra-base hits. Rice had 9,058 plate appearances, 2,452 hits, and 848 extra-base hits.

Guerrero slashed .318/.379/.553. Rice slashed .298/.352/.502.

Guerrero had an OPS+ of 130-or-better 11 times, and 150-or-better six times. His high-water mark was 162. Rice had an OPS+ of 130-or-better six times, and 150-or-better twice. His high-water mark was 157. Read the rest of this entry »

Bud Black has made a lot of tactical decisions at Coors Field. He’s done so from the visiting dugout, having previously served as the skipper of the San Diego Padres. His perspective will be different going forward. Following a year-long stint as a special assistant in Anaheim, Black is now at the helm in Colorado. The Rockies named the 59-year-old former big-league lefty as their new manager earlier this month.

Black was a pitching coach before becoming a manager, and run-prevention remains his area of expertise. He’ll have his hands full in his new position. The offensive environment at Coors is well known, and the Rockies pitchers allowed the second-most runs in the National League this past season. Their 4.92 ERA was also second from the bottom.

Black has ideas of what will work in Colorado. He’s receptive to analytics — a trait surely not lost on GM Jeff Bridich — so while he has no intentions of trying to reinvent the wheel, he’s by no means old school. His moves will sometimes qualify as conventional, but that’s a matter of pragmatism, not a cookie-cutter mentality.

Black, who was featured in this past Sunday’s Notes column, talked about the approach he’ll bring to his new job — the focus was on pitching — late last week.

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Black on managing in Colorado: “I have a little bit of perspective, because I’ve managed close to a season [at Coors Field]. I’m not sure of the exact number, but it’s probably 80-90 games. Even though they were three- and four-game series over the course of a nine-year period, I’ve experienced all types of ballgames there.

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Bud Black believes Mike Scioscia became more progressive this past season. According to the newly-named Colorado Rockies manager — a special assistant with the Angels in 2016 — Billy Eppler was a big reason why. Eppler replaced Jerry Dipoto as Anaheim’s general manager 13 months ago, and according to Black, he had his manager’s ear.

“His relationship with Billy, and the guys Billy brought over, especially some of the analysts — those guys really hit it off,” Black told me. “I think it was very educational for both sides. Mike and his coaches got some great insight from Billy, and from some of the ideas he brought over from the Yankees. Mike reciprocated with some great core principles of baseball. That made for a great dynamic.”

The data bears that out — to an extent. The Angels more than doubled their number of defensive shifts, although they also continued to give up outs with the sacrifice bunt. That ignominious total dropped by just one from the previous year.

At last spring’s SABR Analytics Conference, Eppler called Scioscia an ”information savant.” Based on my interactions with the long-time skipper — including this conversation about analytics — I’m inclined to concur with that claim. Read the rest of this entry »

Should pitchers throw their “best pitch” a higher percentage of the time? I asked that question a number of times this past season, but with a qualifier. Fastballs — most everyone’s primary offering — weren’t the focal point. Secondary pitches were. Think Lance McCullers’ curveball (which he threw roughly 50% of the time this year). Andrew Miller’s slider (61%). Deolis Guerra’s changeup (45%). Zach Putnam’s splitter (68%). Would it behoove more hurlers to up their usage in a similar fashion?

White Sox pitching coach Don Cooper is one of the people with whom I broached the subject. Our conversation came in mid-summer, at Fenway Park, one day after Putnam threw 15 splitters in a 20-pitch relief outing.

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Cooper on Zach Putnam: “He’s coming in for one, maybe two innings. We want him to command his fastball. But his fastball is not the reason he’s in the big leagues. His split is. If we’re going to win or lose a game, it’s going to be on the split more often than not. He uses the fastball to locate, and get them off splits. He uses it to protect the split.

“He’s on the DL right now, because he’s had some difficulty recovering, but listen, we’re not bringing him in to throw fastballs. If that’s what we wanted, we’d leave the starter in, because I guarantee you that whatever starter we have in has a better fastball. We’re bringing him in because his best pitch is the split. He’s been striking out a guy an inning, and he hasn’t been doing it with fastballs.

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Criticizing awards voting is a yearly ritual. It shouldn’t have to be. The problem — as far as I can glean — isn’t lack of intelligence. It’s apathy. If more of the people casting ballots bothered to do their homework, fewer choices with flunk LOGIC-101.

Case in point: Coaches and players I’ve spoken to have admitted that Gold Glove voting isn’t taken as seriously as it should be. More than one has owned up to offense having entered into the picture in previous seasons.

Thursday’s Silver Slugger announcements included a handful of offensive results. Among them was Anthony Rizzo — .292//.385/.544 with 32 home runs — and not Joey Votto — .326/.434/.550 with 29 home runs — at first base in the National League. And those are mainstream stats. Votto also has a clear edge in wRC+ (158 to 145) and wOBA (.413 to .391).

Just like the Gold Gloves, the Silver Slugger selections are made by managers and coaches. Are we to believe that the majority of them would have preferred Rizzo’s performance over Votto’s on their own team? I have a hard time believing that to be the case. Read the rest of this entry »

Neil Allen will return as Minnesota Twins pitching coach in 2017. Expect to see more Tampa Bay Rays influence as a result.

Allen spent eight years coaching in the Rays system before coming to the Twin Cities prior to the 2015 season. He’s already incorporated a changeup philosophy since his arrival. The next steps — based on a conversation I had with him this summer — will likely include an increased emphasis on fastball command at the minor-league level.

Allen shared with me his thoughts on pitcher development, including how certain philosophies were implemented in his old organization. Given the success the Rays have had bringing quality arms to the big leagues, it should come as no surprise that he’d like to see many of them embraced within the Twins system.

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Allen on process and reports in Tampa Bay: “The philosophies come from the higher-ups. The general manager, the manager, and the pitching coordinator would get together and start the program. It would be explained to the coaches and we’d take it to the field. It was up to us — it became our responsibility — and if we didn’t see improvement in individuals, well, we had to answer to that. Why isn’t this guy getting better?

“After every game, there would be reports to fill out. We would report on consistency, on strikes, on location, on arm action. They would get those reports in Tampa Bay every night. They could see the amounts and percentages, as well as our comments on things like the depth of the breaking balls, the movement and arm speed on the changeups, the location of the fastballs. I don’t know exactly what they would do with the data, but every pitch that was thrown in the minor-league system that night was recorded.”

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The Cleveland Indians finished the regular season with 777 runs scored. That qualified as fifth-most in the majors. Their lineup was more speed than power — they led the American League in steals — but they weren’t exactly the 1959 Go-Go Sox. The club logged over 500 extra-base hits, and they finished fourth in the junior circuit in both wOBA and wRC+.

Ty Van Burkleo deserves much of the credit. Cleveland’s hitting coach for each of the past four seasons, the 53-year-old Van Burkleo espouses an approach built on patience and controlled aggression. There’s an overall philosophy. At the same time, however, he recognizes that each hitter has strengths he needs to optimize.

Van Burkleo shared his views on hitting in two separate conversations. I spoke to him on the eve of the World Series, and again when the team was at Wrigley Field.

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Van Burkleo on why the Indians offense was productive: “As a group — as nine guys in the lineup — everybody competes together. It’s not relying on just one or two guys to carry the load. We’ve had 11 walk-offs and I think they’ve been by nine different guys. Somebody is doing their part every day.

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Jason Heyward struggled with the bat all year. The expensive free agent acquisition had a .631 OPS during the regular season, and he went 5 for 48 during the postseason. He didn’t struggle with perspective.

Heyward pulled his Cubs teammates together during the Game 7 rain delay, reminding them that they were baseball’s best team. He told them, ‘We’re going to win this game.”

Nine days earlier, on the eve of the World Series, he was thoughtful while espousing the quality of his club. Read the rest of this entry »

Chris Coghlan embraced the challenge of a Game Seven. To the Cubs outfielder, a winner-takes-all affair against a formidable opponent is the ultimate for any athlete.

“You want it as tall as you can stack it,” Coghlan said after Game Six. “You look back at the road, and the adversity faced. You have to stay in the moment, but as a player, you don’t want anything else. Bring it.”

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Were many of the players nervous? That’s hard to know, although I did observe a few different demeanors prior to the game. I saw some smiles, particularly from Francisco Lindor. There were some businesslike expressions and less-casual-than-usual postures. One Indians player struck me as being a little on edge when I encountered him in the dugout prior to batting practice.

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One big story leading into the game concerned the prospect of Corey Kluber facing the same team for the third time in nine days. That meant a lot of familiarity — on both sides — and myriad questions about adjustments. In terms of pitch mix, the Cubs saw a different Kluber in Game Four than they did in Game One.

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Following their Game Five win at Wrigley Field, Cubs catcher Willson Contreras was asked about his club’s mood as they prepared to head to Cleveland, down three games to two.

“We are fired up,” responded Contreras. “We are going to go out there Tuesday and play our best baseball.”

They did exactly that. There was no Indian summer in Cleveland last night — it was 71 degrees at first pitch — as the Cubs won 9-3, setting up a decisive Game Seven.

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“It’s fun,” Anthony Rizzo said afterward. “Any Game Seven. I was at a Game Seven when the Blackhawks won. It was a Game Seven. It’s must watch if you’re a fan. Not just baseball. Game Seven of any sport is must watch.”

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Tonight’s Game Seven will be the 38th in World Series history. Of the previous 37, the home team has been victorious 18 times and the road team has been victorious 19 times.

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David Ross will put on a big-league uniform — at least as a player — for the last time tonight. The 39-year-old catcher didn’t sound too focused on his imminent retirement leading into Game Seven.

“All I’m going to be worried about is winning the World Series,” said Ross. “Screw my career. Let’s win the World Series.”

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The Indians have received a lot of kudos for their game-planning throughout the postseason. The Cubs deserve kudos of their own. Advance scouting has played a big role for the data-driven squad.

Read the rest of this entry »