Sunday Notes: Olmos, Omar, Desmond, Marte, Mazara, more
Edgar Olmos had a tumultuous offseason a year ago. From November 2015 to March 2016, he went from the Mariners to the Cubs to the Orioles to the Cubs to the Orioles. It was waiver claim yo-yo, although the 26-year-old southpaw equates the experience to a table game.
“It was like a ping pong ball,” said Olmos. “It just went back and forth, back and forth. I’m married — I have a beautiful wife and two beautiful daughters — so it was a difference of us renting a spring training place in Arizona or in Florida. It was, ‘We need to look rent there, no, we need to look rent there, no, wait, we need to go back to looking there, no, not again.”
Olmos originally changed organizations in November 2014. Prior to being selected off waivers by Seattle, he spent seven years in the Marlins system. He made his big league debut wth the Fish in 2013, and the outing was especially memorable. The lefty entered a game with two outs and the bases loaded, and Ryan Howard at the plate.
“I walked out to the mound and the manager said, ‘Well, here you go; go get ‘em,’ remembered Olmos. “Being there was a dream come true, but I was able to kind of block out the noise, block out the lights and the fans, and block out Ryan Howard, pretend he wasn’t there. I knew I had to just stay with my strength, which was my fastball. I was pumping 98-99 at the time.”
Olmos got Howard to ground out to second on a slider. The next day didn’t go quite so well.
“I faced Howard again and got him to pop out,” explained Olmos. “Then Domonic Brown hit a little squibbler down the first base line, and I went over to pick it up and scoop it. As I came up, the ball wasn’t in my glove. Then I got an out on a bunt, walked a guy, and then another guy. That loaded the bases. (Catcher Rob) Brantly came out and told me to relax, stick to who I am, pound the zone, and everything would be OK.”
It wasn’t OK. Olmos got too much of the plate with a two-seam fastball and John Mayberry took him deep for a walk-off grand slam.
“It barely went out — it was first row, right on top of the flower bed — but it was still gone,” said Olmos. “The way I looked at it was, ‘I’ll live to fight another day.’”
Three-plus years later, the lefty has 11 big league games under his belt and a 5.21 ERA in 19 innings. He spent last year in Triple-A, in the Orioles organization, and fashioned a 2.88 ERA in 42 relief appearances. More of a pitcher now than a thrower — “I was 23 when threw 98” — Olmos signed a free agent contract with the Red Sox in November.
———
In an interview that ran here on Tuesday, Rockies GM Jeff Bridich said the organization has been “talking a lot about athleticism and positional flexibility” in recent years. Ian Desmond, who came to Colorado as a free agent in December, is that type of player. A shortstop in his time with the Nationals, he manned centerfield for the Rangers last season.
Barring unforeseen developments, Colorado plans to play him at first base. Not surprisingly, this has perplexed both pundits and the club’s fanbase. Being curious myself, I asked Bridich if taking advantage of Desmond’s positional flexibility would be more of a value-add than stationing him at the bottom of the defensive spectrum.
“I don’t necessarily look at it that way,” answered Bridich. “We want to turn as many ground balls into outs as we possibly can, and having a good first baseman — an athletic first baseman — is extremely important to us. I believe that Ian is going to fit that mold.
“We have infielders that get to a lot of balls and make athletic, off-balance — and at times awkward — throws. We need to have an athletic first baseman who can handle that. Mark Reynolds did a good job for us that way last year, and we look for Ian to do the same.”
I can’t argue with Bridich on the value of having a good defensive first baseman, especially one proficient at reining in errant throws. Even so, a more-versatile role would better optimize Desmond’s value to his new team.
———
Jim Leyland shared some of his thoughts on pitching when I spoke to him last summer. Among the former skipper’s beliefs is that not everyone can hit a good fastball.
“Not everybody can,” said Leyland. “I think you’d be surprised. There are a lot of hitters in the big leagues right now that can’t hit a good fastball. Because of their status, everybody thinks they can crush a fastball, so pitchers are reluctant to throw it to them. They don’t have to be.”
Leyland saw a lot of pitchers during his managerial tenure. He was at the helm for 3,499 MLB contests between 1986-2013. Along the way, he learned that if you don’t understand them, you’re probably sunk.
“As a manager, you better like pitchers,” said Leyland. “If you don’t, you’re in trouble. They control everything. Pitching has been, and always will be… you might out-slug somebody in a given year, but the law of averages says you’re not going to out-slug teams all year long. You better have pitching.”
———
Francis Martes is the top pitching prospect in the Houston Astros organization. In the opinion of some, he’s one of the top pitching prospects in the game. MLB.com recently ranked him fifth among right-handers, and Baseball America says he has “the raw profile of an ace with two pitches that grade near the top of the scale,.” Along with a mid-90s heater, the 6-foot-1, 225-lb. Dominican features a knee-bending hook.
Astros assistant GM Mike Elias described his secondary stuff in glowing terms.
“He has a fast, power curveball that’s deep,” Elias. “It’s got a lot of lateral break, too. He’s also got a good changeup. That’s something he’s improved upon more recently. His curveball has always been kind of his thing, and in the last year or two the changeup has come together for him really well. When he gets to the big leagues, it’s going to help him quite a bit to have both of those weapons.”
When I asked Elias how good the burly right-hander can be, I didn’t get a close-to-the-vest response.
“He’s got as high a ceiling as probably as any righty in the major leagues,” opined Elias. “He has such a gifted arm, and such a weapon breaking ball, plus the changeup as a third pitch. Something that can be lost sight of is how young he is. He went to Double-A (late in the 2015 season) and held his own. In and of itself, that says something. If you look at the list of guys who have pitched well in Double-A at age 19, it’s a really, really impressive list.”
How soon can we expect to see Martes in the Astros rotation?
“He’s got time on his side — we’re certainly not going to rush him — but if things go well for him this year, his road to Houston could be a very fast one,” said Elias. “We’ve got high hopes for him.”
———
Nomar Mazara had a strong rookie season for the Texas Rangers in 2016. Debuting as a 20-year-old — he turned 21 in late April — Mazara bashed 20 home runs and put up a creditable .739 OPS over 145 games. He exhibited massive power along the way. One of the outfielder’s bombs traveled an estimated 491 feet.
According to Rangers assistant GM Josh Boyd, the youngster’s strength of character is every bit as impressive as his ability to lose baseballs.
“His maturity stands out above everything else,” said Boyd, who previously served as the team’s director of professional scouting. “Behind the calm demeanor you see an intelligent, mature young man. A lot of it comes from his upbringing and his strong family unit. When he was coming up in the system, he quickly established himself as a leader by taking it upon himself to make sure other young players had an easier time with some of their needs adapting to life in the minors. While he was making his own adjustments he was a big brother and a good teammate. He often put others first, which speaks to his character.”
Mazara, who was signed by the Rangers out of Santo Domingo at age 16, is the son of a former high-ranking officer in the Dominican Navy.
———
For the second year in a row, Yangervis Solarte put up solid numbers with San Diego. The 29-year-old third baseman slashed .286/.341/.467, with a 118 wRC+. Not surprisingly, he produced more power away from pitcher-friendly Petco Park. Just four of his 15 dingers came in front of the home crowd, and his slugging percentage was .97 points higher on the road.
While the results differed, his hitting approach remained much the same.
“I never change my approach,” Solarte told me recently. “I just try to hit the ball good, and that’s it. I never try to get it to go out, or anything like that. But I know my park. I know the San Diego park is a little complicated. I have a couple of home runs there, but I have to keep your mind like, ‘Hit the ball hard.’”
Solarte does see some difference in how he’s attacked in certain venues.
“In Colorado, they use more fastballs,” said Solarte. “Breaking pitches don’t break like normal there. In Arizona… I think maybe they pitch me inside more. I don’t know.”
Solarte does know that he enjoys playing for his current manager, and hitting coach.
“Oh my god, that’s unbelievable,” said Solarte. “I love Andy Green. He’s always a positive guy. He talks to me happy. He talks to everybody happy. He’s a smart guy. My hitting coach (Alan Zinter) , same thing. He loves when I attack the pitch. He loves when I say to him, ‘Hey, let me see a pitch, stay balanced, and swing hard. We’re always on the same page.”
Solarte heads into 2017 looking to turn the page on a bittersweet season. The native of Venezuela missed time in September to be with his wife, who ultimately succumbed to cancer. Yuliett Pimentel Solarte was 31.
———
I admired Craig Edwards’ writing even before he came to FanGraphs, and continue to enjoy his work. That said, I disagree with his recent column suggesting that Omar Vizquel doesn’t belong in the Hall of Fame. This should come as no surprise, given that I advocated for the long-time shortstop in a recent Notes column.
Craig’s arguments against are certainly valid. By no means am I attempting to question his analytic chops. But I do want to augment what I wrote earlier with a few points I consider salient.
Vizquez was a shortstop, and thus should be judged as a shortstop. It is true that his offense compares unfavorably to that of almost every position player in the Hall of Fame, and yes, that includes the 22 shortstops.
But let’s look at some of those positional peers. Of the 22, only six played as recently as 1960, and three of them — Ernie Banks, Cal Ripken, and Robin Yount — combined to play over 3,400 games at positions other than shortstop. That leaves Luis Aparicio, Barry Larkin, and Ozzie Smith as the only career-long shortstops over the last 50-plus years with a plaque in Cooperstown.
(This is a good time to point out that I’m more of a big-Hall guy, and that Alan Trammell is among those who are deserving of enshrinement.)
Overall, Vizquel was a below-average hitter. Historically, he wasn’t a below-average hitter at his position. Over the past 100 years, 314 shortstops have logged 2,000-plus plate appearances. Of them, Vizquel is tied for 125th in wOBA, and 138th in wRC+. Not good, but not exactly chopped liver, either.
One last thought on Omar’s offense. That he ranks 42nd on the career hits list — and has more total bases than Edgar Martinez! — is largely due to his longevity. Few would argue otherwise. But longevity is meaningful. You don’t last 24 seasons, and play more games at shortstop than anyone in history, without being supremely talented.
Take another look at the number of shortstops with 2,000 plate appearances listed in the paragraph above. There aren’t many, and there’s a reason for that — it is the most athletically-demanding defensive position in the game. Vizquel played it better than all but a handful in history.
———
I missed this when it was announced last month, and it merits mention here in the Notes column. Dan Dickerson, the radio voice of the Detroit Tigers, was named the 2016 recipient of the Detroit Sports Broadcasters Association Ernie Harwell Lifetime Achievement Award. The 2017 season will be Dickerson’s 18th in the booth, and his 15th as the lead play-by-play voice. He made his Tigers debut in 2000, working alongside Harwell. The honor is well deserved. Dickerson is one of the best in the business.
———
LINKS YOU’LL LIKE
Pawtucket’s McCoy Stadium is 17 years older than any other Triple-A ballpark and 46 years older than any other park in the International League. According to Tim Britton of The Providence Journal, its days are numbered.
At Vice Sports, Rian Watt delved into how self-assessment by teams fires the MLB hot stove.
Franklin Delano Roosevelt, who had polio and spent much of his adult life in a wheelchair, won’t be the Nationals’ latest Racing President. Scott Allen has the story at The Washington Post.
Writing for The Japan Times, Jim Allen explained why Tuffy Rhodes, who 462 home runs in nine NPB seasons, could face a long road to Japan’s Baseball Hall of Fame.
What is the baseball atmosphere like in Cuba? Bernie Pleskoff went there to find out, and wrote about it for FanRag Sports.
Former big-league infielder Carmen Fanzone grew up idolizing both Al Kaline and jazz trumpeter Chet Baker. As Bruce Markuson explained at Detroit Athletic Co., Fanzone refused to choose between music and baseball.
At The Dallas Morning News, Evan Grant wrote about how Yu Darvish’s father might not be able to enter the US to see son pitch because of new border restrictions.
RANDOM FACTS AND STATS
Among pitchers with at least 100 plate appearances, Brandon Backe has the highest OBP (.317) in the past 50 years. Micah Owings has the highest SLG (.502).
In 1930, Babe Ruth became the first player to strike out 1,000 times in his career. In 1966, Mickey Mantle became the first to strike out 1,500 times. In 1983, Reggie Jackson became the first to strike out 2,000 times, and in 1986 he became the first to strike out 2,500 times.
Ellis Burks in the only player in history to appear in exactly 2,000 games. Ichiro Suzuki is the only player to appear in exactly 2,500 games. No one has appeared in exactly 3,000, although Cal Ripken played in 3,001 games.
The Marlins have had losing records in 18 of their 24 seasons. They’ve won two World Series titles and are undefeated in six post-season series.
On this date in 1961, Max Carey and “Sliding” Billy Hamilton were elected to the Hall of Fame by the veterans committee. Combined, they led the National League in stolen bases 15 times.
The 2017 SABR Analytics Conference will include a StatCast panel featuring Mike Petriello, Tom Tango, and Daren Willman. The conference will be held March 9-11 in Phoenix.
David Laurila grew up in Michigan's Upper Peninsula and now writes about baseball from his home in Cambridge, Mass. He authored the Prospectus Q&A series at Baseball Prospectus from December 2006-May 2011 before being claimed off waivers by FanGraphs. He can be followed on Twitter @DavidLaurilaQA.
“Take another look at the number of shortstops with 2,000 plate appearances listed in the paragraph above. There aren’t many, and there’s a reason for that — it is the most athletically-demanding defensive position in the game.”
for what it’s worth, there are 313 first basemen with 2,000 plate appearances in the same time frame, so maybe it’s not because of the athletic demands.
“Overall, Vizquel was a below-average hitter. Historically, he wasn’t a below-average hitter at his position. Over the past 100 years, 314 shortstops have logged 2,000-plus plate appearances. Of them, Vizquel is tied for 125th in wOBA, and 138th in wRC+. Not good, but not exactly chopped liver, either.”
You’ve got to be better than “not good” even as a great defensive SS to be considered for the Hall, though. And among SS with 2000+ PA, Vizquel ranks 13th among WAR. Tony Fernandez and Jimmy Rollins have similar if not better cases. So if Vizquel is a HoF, so are those guys. That’s not something I’m ok with, even as a big hall guy myself.
“One last thought on Omar’s offense. That he ranks 42nd on the career hits list — and has more total bases than Edgar Martinez! — is largely due to his longevity. Few would argue otherwise. But longevity is meaningful. You don’t last 24 seasons, and play more games at shortstop than anyone in history, without being supremely talented.”
Is longevity meaningful? After 2007 he stopped being useful, being replacement or sub replacement level virtually every year. So 4-5 of his last years he was hurting his team (-0.9 WAR, 0.9, 0, -0.4, -0.7). Had he not been costing his team with his poor play, he’d be 83rd on the hit list.
Vizquel was a quality player with 42.6 WAR, but if frustrates me to no end when people try to suggest he was a hall of famer. Smith, a similar defensive style player, still had 67 WAR in his career. Vizquel lags behind former teammate Kenny Lofton (62.4 WAR), a much more deserving candidate who was unfairly not given a chance to make the Hall. I would have much preferred to see Jim Edmonds, with 64 WAR, get a chance. And if you’re a “big hall” guy, then I’d prefer to see Lance Berkman, who despite the shorter career, had 56 WAR, and a much higher peak – who over an 8 year period had 6 seasons of 6+ WAR, with one of those being 7+. I’d much rather have a player who had a shorter career and higher peak, than a longer career with only 1 year of 4+ WAR.
If longevity is significant, then let’s just go put in Jamie Moyer, who had 48 WAR and played in even more seasons than Vizquel. Moyer ranks 40th in innings pitched over his career! And his RA/9 WAR, which credits his ability to prevent runs off the board despite a high home run total and low K:BB was 57.6 RA/9 WAR, meaning that he provided significantly more value over his career than Vizquel.
That’s the problem with arguing longevity – once you argue that playing for a long time is important, than guys like Moyer all of a sudden become HoF calibre guys – and worse for Vizquel, is that Moyer has a better case. And he’s not by any means a Hall of Fame calibre pitcher, not when Mussina and Schilling and Clemens can’t even get in.
Vizquel was an above average player for a long time, but he was never an elite player for more than 1 year. He does not deserve to be a HoF. You may have fond memories or liked him as a player, but he’s not good enough to be in the Hall.
If enough people share the same fond memory for a player, I feel that on some level that’s a qualification for the Hall of Fame by definition. For a long time he was one of the main representatives of the shortstop position, and still is from a historical point of view.
In full disclosure I’m also one of those people who feel that Posada has a case based on his stature – not a strong case, but a real case.
Enough people have the same awful memory about Mussina and it’s why he’s not voted in. They think he wasn’t dominant enough because at that point in time W/L record was meaningful.
But that’s the thing about memory – it’s often wrong. Mussina led the AL in WAR one year, and in a handful of other years was top 5 in FIP-.
I have a memory of Vizquel being a good, not elite player, and he stats back that up. He’s a solid player, but clearly overrated if anybody thinks he’s worthy of being in the Hall.
The fact that people like a player or have a fond memory of him doesn’t mean he’s a HoF calibre guy – it means he was a good player, but not one of the best players in the history of the game. We can remember him for what he is, a good player, and not insult the rest of baseball by suggesting he’s one of the best SS of all time. Certainly a good one, but not at a level deserving of the Hall.
I have fond memories of Garciaparra, and he was truly a superior player to Vizquel, but injuries killed his performance so he didn’t have longevity. Yet he produced about the same as Vizquel. If Vizquel is worthy, shouldn’t Garciaparra be? Where do you start drawing the line?
I get what you’re saying, but memories cannot override the performance that separates very good from great. Will Clark is my ‘memories” guy. And many feel the same way about him. But he’s not a hall of famer because of it.
I’m talking about an entirely different premise for the HoF entirely, one which is not directly connected to performance or statistical value. Using performance as counterargument is pointless because the underlying premise is entirely different. It may not be YOUR conception of the HoF, but you can’t dismiss it off-hand and insist that your definition has to be the only one and all others are heresy.
I’m not saying that Vizquel needs to be in the HoF, but the argument that he has no case at all is based on a very narrow, dogmatic and authoritarian view on what the HoF is (independent of how Vizquel himself is viewed). Other people aren’t obliged to share that view and on a website that ostensibly caters to the more well-educated reader one should not be under the delusion that they have exclusive claim on determining the definition of the Hall of Fame that everyone else must necessarily share.
And yes, I do think Garciaparra has a case.
I understand that you’re coming up with a different view. However the idea of “a lot of people have fond memories of this player” as a big case tends to lead to what the others have been saying, namely that any good but not great player can claim that as a reason to be inducted.
Nomar has been suggested, but my guy was Juan Gonzalez a guy who has a career 36 WAR and is one of the poster boys of overrated players in the 90’s. I love the guy though because the first game I ever went to as a kid he hit a home run; I’m sure there are tons of other rangers fans who share that memory. However, I think that saying, “he hit a home run at my first ever attended game!” is not a reason he should even sniff the Hall. It’s a nice memory, but I don’t think it’s anything more than that. And like others have said above, people’s memories are fallible and prone to mistakes.
You are correct that people shouldn’t just flat out claim they know the truth so to speak when it comes to nominations. However you also need to defend your stance that “on some level that’s a qualification”. How much support should that give the player, can they build their case on it or is it a minor thing? Honestly I just feel that there’s no way to apply that argument consistently or even fairly, and will lead to an explosion of guys who had solid careers but shouldn’t be Hall of Famers, read David Eckstein.
Trammell is more deserving. Defense was very solid, played SS his whole career, and in his prime was a dangerous hitter too.
Sure, by wRC+ since 1916 of SS with 2000 PA, he’s 138th of 314, but that’s a self-selected sample, David. Many of the players below him were so bad that they didn’t get significantly more than 2000 PA.
If you up the minimum to 4000 PA, you eliminate roughly half of the population – it goes from 314 to 160. Considering nobody makes the Hall with under 5000 PA (I believe Ralph Kiner, Ross Youngs were about there), and Vizquel had 12000 PA through his oft-cited longevity, I don’t know if ranking just above the top-half of 2000+ PA people in wRC+ is super impressive.
Of the 4000 PA subset, he’s 102nd of 160, now sitting below the 40th percentile. Of the 4000 PA subset, he’s also 147th in OFF, below the 10th percentile.
If you up it to 6000 PA, which is again not a very unreasonable ask, if you ask me, we get a subset of 77 players, or about 3 per 4 years.
Of the 6000 PA group, Vizquel is 59th of the 77 in wRC+ and 69th of the 77 in OFF.
Upping it to 7000 PA, where Hall careers really start unless you’ve got an incredible peak, the breakdown is 54 players and Vizquel ranks 44th in wRC+ and 48th in OFF.
Going back a bit to the original 2000 PA subset, Omar ranked 23rd among that group in fWAR and, as noted, there are 22 shortstops in the Hall, and that list wouldn’t include George Davis or Honus Wagner, to name two.
That list of 22 above him hardly changes until you get to around the 7000 level, where I believe it’s Nomar Garciaparra who drops off. He’s 22nd in WAR among shortstops with at least 7000 PA in the last 100 years, but has 12000 PA.
Vern Stephens is above Vizquel. He has a 117 wRC+, 7240 PA, almost 250 HR, 227.1 OFF+DEF and 48.6 fWAR compared to 83, 12013, under 100, *just 29.6 OFF+DEF* and 42.6 fWAR.
You can support Vizquel all you want, but he only finished top-5 in shortstop fWAR once as far as I can see, whereas even Miguel Tejada (2400 H, MVP) did that five times, even leading twice. Garciaparra ranked top-3 in SS fWAR six times, top-2 four times and led once. These are contemporaries. Rollins has four top-3 years, including leading once. None of them are going to make the Hall of Fame, but all are certainly superior players to Vizquel.
Ozzie Smith gets compared to him frequently, but Ozzie was a superior hitter, far superior baserunner, superior fielder, had a way, way, way superior peak/prime/career, and was recognized in his day for it, getting MVP votes frequently, ranking 2nd once (whereas Omar ranked 16th in the only year he even got a vote, a single 8th place vote iirc) and was an All Star I think 13 times to Vizquel’s three.
Vizquel is simply only a Hall of Famer if you ignore every single advance we’ve made in evaluating players or want a Hall with guys like Tejada, Rollins, Garciaparra and the three recent SS who will surpass him in career/have surpassed him in peak – Reyes, Hanley and Tulo, who are all already around 40 fWAR. Hanley finished top-4 among SS in fWAR four times, leading twice. Tulowitzki was top-3 six times, top-2 four times and led twice. Reyes was top-4 five times, top-2 three times and led once.
The last six years of Vizquel’s career, he was a top-20 SS by fWAR just once, the first of those years (18th). By contrast, Jimmy Rollins from 2011 to 2016 has been top-20 four times.
I just don’t see an argument for Vizquel that isn’t “Gold Gloves and Hits”, but I’ve spent enough of my Sunday morning on the topic.
You make valid points, Anthony. As for the larger subsets you mention, absolutely; the higher the quality of the players you compare him to, the worse he looks. My stance isn’t that Vizquel was a good hitter — he wasn’t — but rather that he wasn’t a terrible one relative to his position, taking into account how many have played it.
Here is one more snapshot: Of the 155 qualified shortstops from 1989-2012 — the years he played — Vizquel is tied for 56th in wOBA and tied for 64th in wRC+. Again, he wasn’t a good hitter, but most shortstops haven’t been good hitters. Vizquel was able to hold his head above water with the bat.
Getting 1000 PA from 1989 to 2012 isn’t exactly the mark of a Hall of Fame candidate. Why not, again, limit that to weed out players who simply weren’t good enough to have longer careers?
Most players, period, weren’t good players and left the league fairly quickly. But this isn’t a debate about whether Vizquel was good. He was. It’s whether he deserves to be elected to the Hall of Fame.
If you up the PA minimum from 1000 (qualified) to 2000, 155 drops to 112, and Vizquel goes from 64th to 57th. Up it to 3000 – again, this is a 24-year period – and the pool drops to 72, while 13 players above Vizquel drop off and he’s 44th.
I don’t necessarily want to continue limiting the pool of players via PA, just because it’s such a specific time period.
So, looking at these 72 players, Vizquel is 6th in fWAR. I’m not sure sixth-best SS of a specific subset of players tailored to make Vizquel look as good as possible is a good Hall argument.
The top four on this list, are in the Hall, will be in 2020, or named A-Rod. The other, Jimmy Rollins, won’t make it but is vastly superior to Omar.
Vizquel has 42 fWAR in 12000 PA, roughly 2.1 WAR per 600 PA. This is where my biggest quibble is, really. He was, for the balance of his career, an average-ish player because of how poor he was with the stick.
He doesn’t make up any of that with peak. Xander Bogaerts has more 4-fWAR seasons since the start of 2015 than Omar Vizquel did in his career.
If you compare him to all shortstops offensively, you’re also wiping out much of his defensive argument, because then you’re just comparing him to shortstops defensively, too, and he’s less impressive runs-wise when just considering fielding runs.
Vizquel was so bad offensively over such a long period of time that even if he were the greatest defender ever and topped 400 DEF, he’d still not even reach +200 on DEF+OFF. And he’s not the greatest defensive player ever.
Finally, and I’ll repeat from earlier, Xander Bogaerts has more 4-fWAR seasons since the start of 2015 than Omar Vizquel did in a 24-season career.
Jimmy Rollins: ~2.9 fWAR per 600 PA
Miguel Tejada: ~2.6 fWAR per 600 PA
Alan Trammell: ~4 fWAR per 600 PA
Barry Larkin: ~4.5 fWAR per 600 PA
Hanley Ramirez: ~3.9 fWAR per 600 PA
Troy Tulowitzki: ~4.5 fWAR per 600 PA
Nomar Garciaparra: ~4.1 fWAR per 600 PA
Jose Reyes: ~3.4 fWAR per 600 PA.
Honestly, David, why is Julio Franco – with three 5-win seasons, the same career WAR (42 vs. 42.6), a 112 wRC+ and about 2600 H while playing all over, an inferior Hall candidate?
Why is Jamie Moyer?
Johnny Damon?
Harold Baines?
Vizquel was one of the best defensive shortstops of his era, and of all-time, but you’ve gotta be more than just merely okay offensively at your position to outweigh that.
I’d never, ever trade Vizquel for any of Reyes, Tulowitzki, Hanley, Rollins, Tejada, Garciaparra, Ozzie, A-Rod, Jeter, Larkin, Trammell, Yount or Ripken. That’s 13 more or less contemporaries (all had their entire careers in last 45 years).
There have been 146 seasons in MLB history, 116 since 1901. Of the 146 ever, 92 times shortstops have had at least a 84 wRC+. 10 times they’ve had exactly an 83 wRC+. Only 44 times have they finished 82 and below.
Of the 116 since 1901, 64 have been 84+, 9 exactly 83, 43 83 and below.
You’re trying to promote this myth Omar’s offense was acceptable for his position for a Hall of Famer. He played 24 years because he was always playable until 2008, and at that point teams employed him for his veteran leadership/defense. This doesn’t mean his offensive contributions over a career this long aren’t dreadful, though. He was a terrible hitter *for a Hall of Famer*
Not a knock on him as a player in the sense I’m saying Vizquel was bad or anything. He wasn’t. But being average at your position offensively isn’t a good way to start a Hall of Fame argument, even if you’re Ozzie Smith good. Ozzie was a lot better than Omar at the plate and a lot better vs. the average SS.
A shorter point: “not a terrible one relative to his position” isn’t a good argument.
The typical Hall of Famer seems to be about 250-300 runs above average.
If you feel Vizquel was a *perfectly average* offensive shortstop (I do not) then he would need to be at least 200 runs better than the average shortstop to even have a small argument, and even then, his peak was dreadful compared to your typical Hall of Fame shortstop. In fact, it might be the worst of them all.
Oft-ridiculed Hall of Fame shortstops Travis Jackson (5 5-win seasons, 2 more 4-win seasons) and Dave Bancroft (3 6-win seasons, 3 other 4-win seasons) had VASTLY superior peaks and are considered the worst HoF shortstops. Aparicio, Vizquel’s closest comp of the recent era IMO, had two more 4-win years than Omar did, and the same number of 5-win years. Rabbit Maranville, another close comp, also at least had four 4-win seasons.
He simply wasn’t good enough to make a real statistical argument.
Given how he ranks, it’s really just a tough sell for me to be convinced to vote for Omar, especially with this dumb 10-man rule in place – I consider him around the 20th best candidate on next year’s ballot, below players I would not vote for like McGriff, Kent, Sosa, Billy Wagner, Hoffman, Damon and Moyer.
I’d need to see some truly amazing evidence that he was significantly better relative to the average SS than you’ve showed. PA minimums are not the way to go at all there. It’s a ridiculous sample, especially at levels as low as 1000 and 2000 PA like you’ve been choosing. If you want to eliminate the positional adjustment section and just compare him to the average shortstop offensively and defensively and convert that to runs, fine, but Vizquel doesn’t far significantly better there. He’s still very poor for a real Hall candidate, worse than all of Maranville, Aparicio, Bancroft, Jackson, Yount, Cronin, Trammell, Ozzie, Ripken, Jeter, Larkin, Appling, Vaughan, Dahlen, George Davis, Wagner, Rollins, Boudreau, Rizzuto and Reese IMO.
“The Marlins have had losing records in 18 of their 24 seasons. They’ve won two World Series titles and are undefeated in six post-season series.”
This is extremely deceptive. Jeffrey Loria has owned the Marlins since 2003 and he is responsible for almost all of the failure quoted above and exactly none of the success.
The casual baseball fan is often pelted with this fact of the Marlins having won two World Series, but I have never seen it noted that Loria had nothing to do with the building of those two championship teams. In 2003 John Henry (current owner of the Red Sox) handed Loria the 2003 team that won the World Series. Loria immediately began to destroy that team, trading away the future HOF player Miguel Cabrera for two prospects who never did anything for the Marlins. Miguel Cabrera will be going into Cooperstown as a Tiger.
The Marlins are eternally youthful since Loria sells all his players – except for Stanton – for MLB ready prospects. The casual MLB fan may think that Loria is active in the International market because of Miguel Cabrera, Hanley Ramirez and Anibal Sanchez, but all three of those players were delivered to Loria by John Henry.
Josh Beckett is the Marlins most famous pitcher, but he was drafted in 1999 when John Henry owned the Marlins. Miguel Cabrera was signed out of Venezuela the same year. After selling to Loria and taking ownership of the Red Sox, Henry traded Hanley Ramirez and Anibal Sanchez to the Marlins for Josh Beckett.
Under Jeffrey Loria the most successful season that franchise has had is 2009 when they played .537 baseball, and that is also the last year the Marlins finished with a winning record.
I believe Anibal Sanchez and Hanley were acquired under Loria.
Big Reds fan here.
Interesting how writers often write about how Omar Vizquel and/or Alan Trammel deserve to be in the Hall of Fame but never even considered Dave Concepcion. Vizquel may deserve to be in the hall of fame but not before Concepcion. Vizquel was a great fielder, but so was Concepcion. Concepcion won 5 gold gloves before this guy named Ozzie Smith burst onto the scene. I have no doubt that if Ozzie was not around Davey would have won several more gold gloves. Probably not the 11 Vizquel won but 8 – 10 are plausible. Along with his great defense Concepcion became an offensive force as he matured.
Even though he batted 7th/8th in the lineup in 1974 he finished 15th in the MVP voting. When the Reds talent retired or moved on Concepcion was placed in the 3rd spot and in 1979 he finished 9th in the MVP voting. In 1981 he finished 4th in the MVP voting. The only year Vizquel received any MVP votes was in 1999 when he finished 16th. This tells me that in their best years Concepcion was clearly better than Vizquel. Alan Trammell clearly exceeds both of these two in this category receiving votes in 7 different years including a second place finish in 1987. Just for a point of reference Ozzie Smith was on the ballot 6 times climaxing with a 2nd place finish in 1987.
Omar Vizquel made the all-star team 3 times. Dave Concepcion made the all-star team 9 times. Alan Trammell made the all-star team 6 times. Ozzie made it 15 times.
Concepcion won 2 silver sluggers and Trammell won 3. Vizquel won zero. Ozzie won 1 silver slugger.
Vizquel had a career RC+ of 83, Concepcion 88 and Trammell 111. Ozzie had a career RC+ of 90.
Career WAR/Games: Vizquel .014, Concepcion .016, Trammell .028 and Ozzie .026
From the above Vizquel is without a doubt 4th of these players. I am really surprised Trammell did not make it. You could make an argument he was a better player than Ozzie (Ozzie was clearly more spectacular though). All 4 of these players should be in and of the 4 I feel Vizquel is least qualified. Concepcion deserved better. The voters should be embarrassed they did not include Trammell and give more credit to the efforts of Concepcion.
The 1976 edition of the Big Red Machine belongs in the HOF as a unit.
I really don’t mind Vizquel in the Hall as its own thing, but I really don’t know if I could deal with the “if he’s in, then…” arguments that would logically follow.
Edgar Olmos has nothing on Brady Dragmire.
I agree with you on Omar Vizquel belonging in the HOF. “You don’t last 24 seasons, and play more games at shortstop than anyone in history, without being supremely talented.” QED
No way that Omar was ever on QED’s. Nomar I’d believe, but not a skinny dude like Omar.
I could use very similar arguments to the ones made for Omar Vizquel, and apply them to Julio Franco. Franco might even have a better case.
Johnny Damon, Harold Baines, Jamie Moyer too. Especially Jimmy Rollins, though, who was a very good defensive shortstop with a high peak for a shortstop.
Comparing apples to apples, Jimmy Rollins definitely should have a case. He was the face of the shortstop position for the better part of a decade, unquestionably the best shortstop of his era, and stayed there for a fairly extended period. In an era of increasing parity across players I think the traditional cutoffs undersell the qualifications of players like him.
“Unquestionably the best shortstop of his era”
Jeter was the face and the best.
Reyes, rollins, and tulo have cases for second I guess. Rollins was hurt less, the other 2 better. Young Hanley had 20 war in 3 years even.