Author Archive

Panda’s (Historically?) Big Boned Cycle

Pablo Sandoval hit for the cycle during the Giants’ 8-5 victory over the Rockies last night, ably and entertainingly broken down by Jeff Sullivan here. It has been quite a journey for Kung Fu Panda, who went from exciting young Giants third baseman to bench player during San Francisco’s run to the World Championship in 2010. Criticized by the organization for his weight, he came into 2011 slimmed-down and has returned to his impressive pre-2010 performance level. What makes the timing of the cycle so interesting is that it comes so soon after reports surfaced that he has gained back much of the weight he lost during the off-season. Sandoval is a big guy, but is he the biggest-boned player to hit for a cycle since the beginning of FanGraph’s play-by-play data (1974)?

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Matt Klaassen FanGraphs Chat – 9/15/11


Narratives From Formulas

Bill James’ discovery of the Pythagorean Win Expectation is one of the cooler findings of sabermetric research. You can read up on the details by following the given link. In short, what James found is that one can get a pretty good approximation of a team’s winning percentage given only their runs scored and allowed by using the following formula:

It works remarkably well, and more recent versions like PythagenPat are even more accurate. I won’t repeat the basics, which can be looked up elsewhere. Instead, I want to address the occasional misuse of the formula for building narratives of teams being better or worse.

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Huntington Extended by Pirates

This weekend, the Pittsburgh Pirates reportedly extended General Manager Neal Huntington through 2014 with a club option for 2015. Huntington was nearing the end of his prior contract, but the length of the new contract shows that ownership has confidence in the direction in which he is taking things.

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Twins “All In” for 2012?

The Minnesota Twins have had a brutal 2011 season, to say the least. After winning the American League Central in both 2009 and 2010, they have plummeted into a tie for last with the Royals at the moment. There have been number of factors in the Twins’ collapse this season, from Joe Nathan‘s injury to Tsuyoshi Nishioka‘s injury followed by awful performance to Francisco Liriano’s control problems and more, but none loom larger than the injuries to Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau. Many observers have understandably concluded that it might be time for the Twins to “blow it up.” However, in his Friday column for ESPN Insider (summarized for non-subscribers here), Buster Olney reports that the Twins aren’t necessarily going to hit the reset button. While that does not necessarily back up the “All In” in the title of Olney’s column, that the Twins are even considering doing such a thing is intriguing.

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Matt Klaassen FanGraphs Chat – 9/8/11


Yes, September Stats Count

Call-up season is upon us. It’s a lovely time of year. Even guys like Canadian Legend Simon Pond can get a bit of playing time here and there as teams give their regulars a bit more rest. It also means that a greater proportion of league-wide playing time than usual is going to a group of players whose true talent is replacement level or below. This situation inspires an assertion that I occasionally see this time of year: September statistics should be ignored or weighted less heavily because of the influx of less-talented players. It is easy to understand the motivation behind such a claim, but I think it is problematic.

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An Untimely Meditation on Michael Young

Michael Young won’t go away.

He’s 34 years old. He’s a bad defender pretty much anywhere on the diamond. He doesn’t walk much or hit for exceptional power. His biannual off-season whining when he’s moved to accommodate a superior fielder has damaged his reputation. (Remember “misled and manipulated?” Good times.) But, still, Young keeps on hitting.

As Joe Pawlikowski recently noted, Young — and his 3.6 WAR (on the back of his .372 wOBA — has been key for the American League West-leading Rangers, who’ve endured injuries to Young’s third-base replacement, Adrian Beltre, and to outfielders Josh Hamilton and Nelson Cruz. His playing time didn’t directly replace Hamilton’s or Cruz’s, but Young’s surprisingly strong offensive contribution (his 132 wRC+ is his best since 2005) has helped make up for what the team lost. The Rangers aren’t a lock for the playoffs yet, but they’re getting close, and Young has been a big part of that.

Which is exactly why this post so untimely: What should happen with Young in the off-season?

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Rookie of the Year, Playing Time, and WAR

A fair amount of Most Valuable Player and Cy Young discussion has been going around lately, and while it seems a bit early with a month left in the season, I suppose it is understandable. There has been less discussion of Rookie of the Year. I don’t blame anyone for that. I really don’t get that worked up about the individual year-end awards. (I’m not quite brave enough to say that I don’t care, maybe if Greinke hadn’t won in 2009 the story would have been different.) And if I’m not that pumped about the MVP or Cy Young races, why should I be excited about Rookie of the Year?

Still, a number of rookies have been impressive this season, so it is worth discussing. Brett Lawrie, for example, has hit so well in only 26 major league games that he’s already at two WAR for the season, right of there with the best of the American League rookie hitters. What if he (or Desmond Jennings, or whatever player you want to pick) keeps this up? What if they put up more value than any other rookie in less than half of a season? Would you vote for them for Rookie of the Year?

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Matt Klaassen FanGraphs Chat – 9/1/11