After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Philadephia Phillies.

Batters

Perhaps there’s a bit of recency bias in play since I just wrote about them, but the Phillies as an organization feel a lot to me like the Angels do. Both have significant high points on their roster: the Angels with Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani, and Anthony Rendon, the Phillies with Bryce Harper, J.T. Realmuto, Aaron Nola, and Zack Wheeler. But both teams share some less desirable qualities: ownership that seems to spend mostly in short bursts; major, obvious holes that go unanswered for years; and an unfortunate lack of reinforcements from the minors.

Entering the 2020 season, the Phillies ranked dead last in our positional rankings in center field. The projection was not far off, as they got a .637 OPS out of the position. They did little to address the problem after 2020, and though they did a better job thwarting the projections than the year before, I doubt anybody seriously thinks Travis Jankowski or Matt Vierling is going to be a great long-term option out there. Odúbel Herrera was already showing decline before his release, and the team has done just about nothing at the position since. In left, Andrew McCutchen was never better than simply a temporary stopgap; now that he’s gone, the Phillies don’t have a better idea. There’s still more of the offseason to come, but as of now, fans should be apprehensive about these two positions.
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After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Los Angeles Angels.

Batters

The good news: the Los Angeles Angels have Michael Jordan and Scottie Pippen. The bad news: the Los Angeles Angels play a sport where you have to give almost as many shots to Luc Longley and Stacey King as Jordan and Pippen. The Angels are a very star-driven team, and if something terrible happens to a star or two, it’s going to be hard to eke out first place in a division with four plausible contenders. If you can ensure that Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani, Anthony Rendon, and Noah Syndergaard all have full, healthy seasons, I think this is the team that can make the Astros sweat the most this summer. If not, I think the Angels’ playoff relevance will be on life support by the trade deadline. That is, assuming that Rob Manfred’s dystopian fever dream of every mediocre club getting a chance to knock off a 100-win team in the postseason by winning two of three games comes to pass. Read the rest of this entry »

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the St. Louis Cardinals.

Batters

Can we just say 87 wins and call it a day? It feels like that’s what I’ve been projecting for the Cardinals for the last 15 years or so. That’s an exaggeration, but not an extreme one: ZiPS hasn’t projected St. Louis outside the 85–90 win range in a full season since 2011. Going back to the first official ZiPS team standings in 2005 — I only did players in the first couple of years — the team’s projections have been below .500 once (2008) and above 90 wins once (2010).

The lineup rarely has superstars at the top, but the Cards have a knack for keeping their floor incredibly high. Does that line sound familiar? It might; it’s what I wrote last year. And it still applies today. For a while, it looked like it wouldn’t happen in 2021, with the team 44-47 right around the All-Star break. Now, if you still considered the Cardinals an 89-win team or thereabouts, the normal thinking would have been to say, “Oh, OK, so they’ll play at an 89-win pace the rest of the way and finish around .500.” But the Cards care not for you and your fancy-pants Gambler’s Fallacy. After a loss against the Kansas City Royals on August 8, St. Louis stood at 55-56. This was the last time they were below .500, as they went 35-16 the rest of the way, capped by a 17-game winning streak in mid-September. The Cards didn’t just sneak back into the Wild Card conversation; they talked over the Padres and Reds and flipped the table, spilling all the hors d’oeuvres onto the floor. In the end, they made the playoffs with seven games to spare. Read the rest of this entry »

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Minnesota Twins.

Batters

Hey, that doesn’t look half bad! I’m talking about the hitters, mind you, and it shouldn’t be that much of a surprise given that the Twins returned the entire lineup that was roughly middle-of-the-pack in offense in the American League. Given that last season was certainly more than half bad as a whole, and I’m going to get grumpy below, here’s the chance to say some nice things.

This is one place where I believe the ZiPS estimate of Byron Buxton’s playing time more than I do that of our depth charts. Minnesota’s extension was a fair deal on both sides, I feel, simply because you’d be lying or batty if you said that his health didn’t represent a significant risk that impacts his value in the open market. A seven-year contract worth $150–$200 million probably just isn’t out there, even if he were a free agent right now. It’s hard for the Twins to walk away, though, since a healthy season from Buxton, while possibly a unicorn, remains one of the biggest sources of possible upside on the roster.

Elsewhere, the offense generally looks fine. The only real position you could call an actual problem is perhaps the Trevor Larnach/Brent Rooker mix in left, with ZiPS not entirely enthralled with either. The Jimmy Kerrigan defensive projection turned my eye enough that I double-checked it, but ZiPS gave him the best defensive performance of a corner outfielder in the minors it ever has. If his glove is anywhere near what the computer thinks, he’s a more interesting back-of-the-roster talent than, say, Jake Cave.

Man, Jose Miranda. I admit to not really having paid much attention to his season in the minors, but he killed it in 2021 after a rather uninspiring history, and given his straight-up performance, he really ought to be considered one of the team’s top prospects. ZiPS is getting antsy about Royce Lewis, and really, he hasn’t actually been healthy and playing well since 2018. ZiPS may be too pessimistic about his mean projection long term, but I think he really ought to tumble down the prospect lists considerably. It’s hard to miss two years of development time.
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After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Houston Astros.

Batters

The outfield, the DH, and the catcher from the 2017 championship team are long gone, yet the Astros have carried on with nary a regret. Joining them on the ex-Astro list is the team’s former phenom, Carlos Correa. One could hardly call him a bust by any stretch of the imagination, but his injury history appears to have been enough to scare Houston off making a decade-long bet on him. The franchise has moved on from stars before, and it will again. But will it pay a serious short-term hit in the win department?

Honestly? No. Now, there’s no denying that a downgrade at shortstop is inevitable. But given Correa’s injury history, you can’t really pencil him in for 150 games. It was likely that the Plan B’s would get at least some playing time, and if 2022 was anything like 2017–19, that time could be substantial. ZiPS projects that we’re talking about a three-win hit for Houston. When you have a shortstop prospect slugging .600 in Triple-A, as Jeremy Peña just missed doing in 2021, it’s hard not to use that player! The more Peña and the less Aledmys Díaz that Houston gets, the better the post-Correa era will feel at the start.

Elsewhere, the Astros don’t really have much in the way of surprises. They have some dizzying highs in the trio of Alex Bregman, Kyle Tucker, and Yordan Alvarez, and they avoid being awful anywhere. Even the catcher projections aren’t really that lousy. With catcher defense extremely tricky to quantify, I’m certainly open to the idea that Martín Maldonado’s defense is better than our crude numbers have captured.

As usual, I have zero faith in Yuli Gurriel’s projection. He’ll eventually suffer age-related decline, but I don’t know if it’ll be at 38 or 48 or 58. I’m not sure that when the sun enters its red giant phase, the last vestige of life on Earth isn’t going to be Yuli still hitting .290.
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After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Cincinnati Reds.

Batters

The offense’s resurgence from 13th in the National League in runs scored in 2020 to fourth in ’21 was one of the big reasons the Reds stubbornly hung on to the edge of the Wild Card race for most of the second half of the season. Jonathan India not only survived in the majors but thrived, winning the Rookie of the Year award with a borderline star season and providing the team a significant boost. Tyler Stephenson wasn’t too far from a Rookie of the Year vote of his own, at least on my ballot. Joey Votto pushed back Father Time yet again, at least for the one season, and Nick Castellanos hit like the Reds expected him to when they signed him. Kyle Farmer was hardly a great shortstop, but the position would have been an even worse problem if Cincy’s wild plan to make the former backup catcher their shortstop had not worked out acceptably. Read the rest of this entry »

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Chicago Cubs.

Batters

Losing Javier Báez, Anthony Rizzo, and Kris Bryant hurt the offense, but the drop-off may not be all that significant. The first two weren’t amazing offensively, simply solid. And even amid some of the surprising breakouts from their Quadruple-A players, the Cubs got little out of second base and right field; Joc Pederson may have had some 2021 heroics, but they happened in Joctober, not Jocpril or Jocly. Read the rest of this entry »

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Pittsburgh Pirates.

Batters

The offensive projections are kind of bleak, but they also represent the 2022 highlight for the Pirates, at least if ZiPS is correct. The offense basically consists of three highly interesting (in a good way) players.

When all is said and done, Oneil Cruz may end up having the best career of the three. The team’s sixth-ranked prospect entering 2021, Cruz destroyed minor league pitching on his return to Double-A. In a week for Triple-A Indianapolis, Cruz went 11-for-21 with five homers in six games, resulting in him getting a call-up for the final weekend of the season. Cruz is a physical anomaly, a 6-foot-7 player who can credibly play shortstop and run the bases very well. While there will naturally always be whispers about a shortstop that big staying at the position — and Cruz has gained about 30 pounds since his early prospect days — the Pirates aren’t in a position that should preclude them from letting him play there as long as he can. It’s what the O’s should have done with Manny Machado years ago, but they instead prioritized J.J. Hardy. The projection is even more exciting when you realize how few games ZiPS is projecting for Cruz due to various injuries and the missing COVID season. Read the rest of this entry »

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Cleveland Guardians.

Batters

The overlying theme here is a state of averageness, and that’s not so bad. For a number of years, Cleveland’s outfield situation has been rather bleak, generally toward the bottom of the league, with little investment to make it better. This is the first time in a while that ZiPS sees some hope there. No, the Guardians didn’t pull a 180 and sign Starling Marte and Michael Conforto, but the likely players manning the outfield have better projections than most of those used out there in recent years. The most notable are Myles Straw and Steven Kwan, both of whom get projections that, in an entire season, put them a skosh above average. ZiPS doesn’t think they likely get any surprise star performances, but it’s a better situation.

The two likely meaningful breakouts in the roster are Nolan Jones and George Valera. ZiPS is happy with the latter’s entrance into the high minors, but there is concern about the former; that ceiling gets a lot lower if he doesn’t improve on 2021 and an unexciting .787 OPS for Triple-A Columbus. One can’t blame the ankle injury that ended Jones’ season, either, which was significant enough that he couldn’t play through it.

The middle infield is a similar story as the outfield. ZiPS sees more upside remaining for Andrés Giménez, and Amed Rosario is far from a problem. First base is a weak spot, with the computer holding out little hope for Bobby Bradley. It was a lot easier to excuse his underwhelming numbers when he was 22, but he’ll be 26 next season, and he didn’t even hit Triple-A pitchers all that convincingly last year. Speaking of players with offense that displeased ZiPS, let’s just say “Austin Hedges” and leave it there.
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12:00

Dan Szymborski: And it’s chat time!

12:01

Dan Szymborski: Well, yeah, but in the sense that everybody should want to.

12:01

Dan Szymborski: Good luck, though!

12:02

Dan Szymborski: He’s too young and talented to give up on, but the last 1.37 seasons should make you extremely worried

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