The Atlanta Braves Win it All
The Atlanta Braves ended the 2021 season with a bang on Tuesday night, crushing the Houston Astros in a seven-run rout that rarely felt even as close as the eventual score. Atlanta had failed to make the World Series in any of their last 12 playoff appearances since being swept by the Yankees in 1999. But as they always say, the 13th time’s the charm, and the Braves took home the big trophy in front of a disappointed Minute Maid crowd.
The post-Milwaukee period was a tough one for the Braves, as they spent most of the 1970s and 80s fighting with Cleveland and San Diego for the unofficial title of the league’s most moribund franchise. They were more or less a Ted Turner-driven sideshow that existed to fill up hours on TBS between reruns of Alice and The Andy Griffith Show. They hit it big in the worst-to-first 1991 season, and even with a lengthy rebuilding phase in the mid-2010s, they’ve won the second-most games in baseball since the start of that season, behind only the New York Yankees. Despite impressive feats like dominating the top of the NL East for over a decade, one thing always marred their legacy: the lack of World Series victories. For all their dominance — the Braves won 100 games on four occasions in the 1990s and had chances at two more if not for the 1994 strike — they only emerged with a single World Series win in 1995.
It’s not entirely fair to count World Series titles in light of baseball’s greatly expanded modern playoffs, but life is rarely known for playing fair. The team that won Game 6 in 2021 is a very different one from that which won Game 6 in 1995. These Braves were not a dominating team, but rather one that wasn’t a heavy favorite to win the division and lost their franchise player, Ronald Acuña Jr., halfway through the season with a torn ACL. The 1995 team had Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, and John Smoltz in their primes. This one had to throw two consecutive bullpen games in the World Series because the broken leg Charlie Morton suffered in Game 1 reduced them to a two-man rotation.
Luckily for Atlanta, Max Fried was the right pitcher at the right time. Fried’s last two starts were ugly losses to the Dodgers and Astros, but the baseballs have no memory. Fried wasn’t missing any velocity, but his performance wasn’t of the overpowering variety and the Astros managed to put 15 of his pitches into of play. Like most of the very best Fried starts, he instead relied on location like a 15-year veteran, threading the needle against the patient Astros and weaving ruin. In 74 pitches, he racked up 17 called strikes. His 23% called strikes was the second-highest percentage for any pitcher throwing at least 50 pitches this postseason, trailing only his own nine-strikeout, six-inning shutout of the Brewers earlier this month. And Houston didn’t fare any better when the bats come off their shoulders. With an xBA on those hits of .199, the BABIP gods were not unkind to Fried, resulting in just four singles for Houston, never more than one in the same inning.
The first inning was the only time the Astros mounted a serious threat. After Jose Altuve hit an infield single, Michael Brantley reached first on what had to have been the scariest play of the game for an Atlanta fan. While trying to complete the standard 3-1 putout at first, Fried’s right foot did not find the first base bag. Brantley stepped on the pitcher’s ankle while trying to reach, sending Fried tumbling and resulting in two runners on and nobody out; Fried was charged with an error. While Brantley never actually touched first base, he was called safe with most of the attention on Fried’s ankle. After some light limping, Fried returned to come back and retire the side, striking out Carlos Correa and Yuli Gurriel.
That was the last time the Astros had a runner in scoring position. Statcast defines balls hit between 8 and 32 degrees as “Sweet Spot” events, and Martín Maldonado’s third-inning single was the only ball hit against Fried that fit in that category. Fried was lifted after 74 pitches and six innings, and with a six-run lead, he left with the knowledge that only an epic meltdown by the Braves’ bullpen would prevent him from being the winning pitcher in Atlanta’s first championship in 26 years.
In a postseason full of parades of relieves, the Braves just needed two — Tyler Matzek and Will Smith, to finish dispatching Houston, who went down in a quick and orderly fashion. Matzek started by going to the fastball well one time too many against Yordan Alvarez, who punished him with a hard single despite the platoon disadvantage. But he faced little resistance the rest of the way and struck out the side in the eighth, even coming back from a 3-0 count to whiff Marwin Gonzalez on a low-inside slider. Smith looked a little iffy against Brantley to start the ninth, with the Astros outfielder getting to first on a hard single off a poorly placed fastball. That was it for Houston, however. Smith mostly fastballed his way to the last three outs in a game that probably could have been closed out by Will Smith the catcher or Will Smith the actor.
Suffice it to say, the day went better for Atlanta’s offense. Having just used José Urquidy for an inning in Sunday’s win, Luis Garcia drew the start on three days’ rest. Garcia was less wild than in his Game 3 start but got fewer whiffs this time around with his hard stuff. He survived the first two innings unscathed, but the third was a different story. After Ozzie Albies swung underneath an 0-1 fastball, Garcia obliged him with a slightly lower one that he lined to right-center for a one-out single. After a Dansby Swanson lineout, Garcia tried to nibble around the lefty Eddie Rosario, resulting in a five-pitch walk.
Garcia cut the heart out of the Red Sox with cutters last week, but Jorge Soler avenged them when he muscled one that didn’t cut literally out of the park for a three-run jack that everyone knew was gone the second he connected.
That was all the Braves ended up needing, but that didn’t prevent them from banking some insurance runs. Cristian Javier had command issues, and his night — and really, Houston’s — was ended by a fastball he dangled in Swanson’s wheelhouse that resulted in a two-run homer, extending the lead to five.
While I suspect that Freddie Freeman will end up re-signing with the Braves when all is said and done, if this was his last game with Atlanta, he ended it in storybook fashion. Freeman had his best postseason ever, hitting .304/.440/.625 with five homers. The fifth home run came in the seventh inning of Game 6 on a slider from Phil Maton in his final at-bat of 2021. Remember how I said at the top that life rarely plays fair? This was one of those happy exceptions. It just wouldn’t have felt quite right if Freeman, after basically being the guy the Braves hung on to during rebuilding, was wearing a different uniform — or in a subsequent, different profession — when Atlanta won their next World Series.
By all accounts, this team should not have won the World Series. Forced to cobble together an emergency outfield for the final two months of the season, the 88-win Braves beat the 95-win Brewers, then the 106-win Dodgers, and the 95-win Astros, while never having to stave off elimination. The 2021 Atlanta Braves were not the best team in baseball in 2021. But they beat many of the best teams in baseball in October and thoroughly earned their forever status as 2021 world champions.
Let’s do this baseball stuff again in 2022!
(I hope)
Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.
I mean seriously, what kind of BS karma would have to happen for your top 2 pitchers to suffer broken legs in the first inning of a WS game? I thought there was no way a guy recovers from that; but he popped up, dusted himself off and said to himself, “now you’ve just pissed me off” and proceeded to mow them down. An amazing series and an amazing team who will be remembered as the NO QUIT Braves. As a collective we needed to get that huge ape off our backs. Sign Freddie and Soler and go get another ring.
I’d like to give Duvall a look as well. Duvall, Acuna, Soler, Swanson, Riley, Albies, and Freeman are all a 30 HR threat.
Duval!!! Blake Bortles!!!
Of course, the Braves’ 2022 outfield depends on what happens with Marcell Ozuna’s situation this offseason…
I don’t think it does.. I think even the Braves are ok with him never playing MLB baseball again.
He’s currently still under contract, so if he can get his legal situation worked out, then the Braves still have to pay him (or find someone willing to trade for him) if nothing else.
Man after all the heartbreak, I genuinely cannot believe this is the team that got it done. Absolutely stunned…
I’m still waiting to wake up. I calculated that I’ve watched over a year of Braves baseball since our last WS title. Totally worth it.
Yeah, losing Acuna and Soroka really hurt the team, and left them as a team with some flaws. But I think it’s a good reminder that even though any specific flawed team (in this case, the Braves) has a really small chance of winning the world series, the number of flawed teams in the field always outnumbers the number of teams that seem really strong. And so the chances that a flawed team wins the world series are pretty good, even if the chances of any one of them winning it is low.
Never underestimate the ability of the Mets FO to eff things up, to get out of your way, to quit on the team in the strangest, most inept and inexplicable manner imaginable. –Hey, you have a terrific team but… happy to help?
Yo, “route” should be “rout” in the first sentence.
” six-inning shutout of the Brewers earlier this month” We’re also in November now.
Otherwise, nice article!
Oops, it was late!
I’ll take the L for rout. But I’m going to try and justify this one by saying it was PLAYOFF MONTH, which totally doesn’t follow any mold old traditional calendar!
“Playoff Month” is fair.
Follows the mold of every Lunar Calendar ever, which are legit old fashioned.
Smoltz said players hit way better against relievers the more times they see them (and had some numbers to back it up). Is that true? I suspect so. I wonder what the decay rate is. If that’s the case, it’s even more of an argument to burn through the back end of the bullpen in low leverage situations.
Soler basically juuuuust missed 3 pitches before he jacked that slider. He clearly knew what was coming and how to hit something he wanted.
I’ve been wondering about this too. Would love to see some data on the effects of seeing pitchers multiple times over the course of a series.
Just a rough recollection but it was basically a 50 odd point BA improvement. That could just be noise though, even at that pretty sizable magnitude.
He had to be looking offspeed on the 3-2 given he kept Sheffielding pulled 110 mph foul balls prior.
Yeah I’d like to see an overlay of the swings. I think it was pretty much the same swing and timing on all three.
I would imagine so. Just as hitters do far better when they face a starter a 3rd time, you would think the same would be true for relievers
Trevor Plouffe the prognosticator!
https://twitter.com/trevorplouffe/status/1377335343108657154
These playoffs were all about how much you trusted your pitchers. The Braves were the only ones who really did it and where it paid off. A lot of teams were playing to win every game by throwing certain pitchers out there constantly, on short rest, pulling starters early, etc. Certain pitchers got used a ton, others barely at all. The Braves were the only team that really had confidence in their pitchers, both the starters and their bullpen. Snitker’s managing was good even in the abstract, but compared to his peers he looks like an absolute genius just by trusting the whole pitching staff. And this is striking because (1) he probably had the least reason to trust his bullpen and (2) the bullpen was up to the task. For whatever reason, the Braves knew the spots where their relievers would succeed, picked the right low-leverage spots to use guys he trusted less, and it all worked.
To be fair, the Astros had some reasons for doing it the way they did. The Red Sox have some really dangerous bats, they lost McCullers, and Garcia hurt his knee at one point and wasn’t pitching well. But the Dodgers and Red Sox and Rays don’t have that excuse (the Brewers also did this to a certain extent but they just couldn’t hit, at all, so we never got to see whether they would burned out too). And although the Astros might not have had a choice, their pitchers just looked like they were out of gas.
Which flies in the face of the “tired good pitchers are better than peak form bad pitchers theory.” Davidson, Chavez and Lee weren’t great but they ate mid leverage innings well enough to keep Fried, Anderson, Minter, Smith and Matzek at a high level in potential higher leverage innings.
I suspect there’s an interaction effect. Tired good pitchers who batters have seen a few times are way worse than fresh bad pitchers a batter is unfamiliar with. I bet that effect is even stronger with more aggressive batters.
Yeah if any team has a stable of above median innings eaters, it’s the Rays. Their lack of trust in those guys- of which they have more than pretty much any team- is crazy.
If you roster a gazillion relievers in your postseason roster, you should trust that group enough to not have to throw members of your core starting rotation into relief at the first sign of drama (looking at you Dave Roberts). Or, going back a few years, if you have a top-end LOOGY to neuter the other team’s lefty boppers, you don’t quit using them because they gave up a weak single to the other team’s star LHB (re: Mike Matheny’s use/non-use of Randy Choate vs. David Ortiz).
Snitker went a whole postseason without any brain farts on using his pitchers. Quite an accomplishment these days.
Honestly if it were possible, I’d give Snit the series MVP award.
I agree. He was awesome.
I don’t think this is something a lot of people have picked up on, but yes, this is among the best managing jobs I’ve ever seen.
It’s never too late to leave your mark or make a mint. Snitker had to have thoughts of hanging it up before he got tapped on the shoulder to interim manage this team. Now, 5 years later, he’s in the club. Barring something truly strange, he has no shot of the HOF, but you can bet your ass he’ll be in the Braves HOF and will never have to pick up a check in Atlanta for as long as he lives.
I agree. Even a small thing–letting Smyly wear Game 4–was guided by that principle.
You’re 100% right and I can’t help but ask myself if the Giants would have trusted their pitchers if they’d gotten farther, because the general situation didn’t start to become completely obvious until the championship series. The only real sign I saw of Kapler succumbing to the general panic in the nlds was pulling Rogers for Doval in the 8th inning of game 5. More worrying was the fact that in the numerous published post mortems, no Giants’ writers identified this is as a crucial mistake (and in the Giants’ fansite which I participate in, only me and one other guy criticized the move at the time).
Kapler is super sharp, is the thing. But this was a new experience for him right? Snitiker might have learned from the NLCS last year.
I’m not supposed to say this but I’m not completely convinced that Kapler is super sharp.
Nothing about Gabe Kapler says to me “this dude is smart”. I edited this comment just to emphasize the word NOTHING.
I was surprised that Fried was removed after just 70 odd pitches. After all, there was nothing to save him for, he wasn’t going to pitch in game 7 if they somehow lost game 6. It all worked out for the Braves but it was just another example of lowered expectations for starting pitchers. Hopefully MLB can address this some way over the winter.
Fried had his ankle stepped on in the first inning and his velocity was already dropping by the 3rd inning. He went from his 4-seam fastball sitting 94-95 mph to it sitting 91-92 mph by the 6th. He threw 15 pitches in the 1st, 8 in the 2nd, 9 in the 3rd, 8 in the 4th, 12 in the 5th, but 22 pitches in the 6th inning, for 74 pitches overall.
I was sad in the moment, but not surprised. This wasn’t a case of lowered expectations. Snitker made the right call – he could tell that Fried was running on fumes. When your starter guts through 6 innings after he’s injured in the first inning, he’s done his job.
“Smith mostly fastballed his way to the last three outs in a game that probably could have been closed out by Will Smith the catcher or Will Smith the actor.”
great line
The Braves wining the World Series is the best example since the Nationals that winning in the playoffs are a crapshoot. The Braves were probably the 2nd best team in the entire playoff field and ended up winning it all because they got hot for a month. To the offseason we go…
If you think they were the second best team, I don’t think that supports the point you are trying to make…I think you were trying to say “second worst”? (In your estimation)
Yeah that’s what I meant. Obviously they weren’t the second best team.
If the second-worst playoff team won it, is that something you would aim to fix? Do you ever want to see underdogs win, or just the teams that are “supposed” to win it? If you do want to see changes to tilt it a little toward the favorites, what do you suggest?
Genuinely curious and trying to spur a discussion regarding what level of underdogs and upsets we (as fans) want to see. I don’t think anyone wants to see 1-game series that are total crapshoots – I like it for the WC game but that’s plenty – and adding more games per round theoretically would reduce upsets somewhat, but would you go best-of-9 or best-of-11 and play til December? Make the higher seeds the home team in every game? I don’t know how “by the books” you’d like the outcomes to be (I suspect more than they were this year from your comments) and what specific steps you might take to reduce randomness of outcomes.
Personally I do like to see the underdogs win it sometimes, but wouldn’t want to see it every year. The playoffs in their current format feel “just random enough” for me, but your mileage may vary.
Going back to the pre-1969 system of no divisions, no wildcards, and no interleague play would make it more likely that you could argue that the winning team was the best, because there would be less evidence that the 96-win champion of one league wasn’t actually better than the 101-win champion of a (possibly weaker) league that it beat in the WS. I’d like to see that system used maybe once every five years, but I have a feeling I’m in a minority of one…
This requires moving back to 154 games and having a best of three WC round and adding another WC so the top two teams in each league get a mini-bye. I like the idea of 5 home games vs 2 away for teams with a better record. I guess my feeling on this is I’d like a bit more of an advantage for a team who was better for six months than the current 4 and 3 format. Hell, you could make it really weird where the lesser team gets game 1 and 7 at home.
I’m fine with the playoffs and the format the way it is though. Sometimes you get two heavyweights at the end, like 2017, and some years you get this year. It’s so unpredictable by nature that some years you get chalk and some years you don’t.
I think they should stop playing games. Maybe just plug everyone’s Opening Day roster into Out of the Park and sim the season.
Who said that? Don’t be obtuse.
95 win pythag, 99 win pace since they made the acquisitions, but sure…
If only there were some “regular” season to weed out the unqualified teams so we could just watch the best teams play. And if only there were some sort of advantage given to the better teams in the playoffs like home field…Perhaps each round should go 17 games to determine the True Bestest Awesome Number 1 Team That Didn’t Just Get Hot since July 31 and Instead Meets Steveo’s metric for Best Team Because Going 11-5 Against The Central Divison Leader, The 106 Win Dodgers and the AL Champ is Fluky Crapshooting….
By regular season record they were the 10th best of 10, and behind Toronto & Seattle too. By regular season run differential (and BRef’s SRS system) they were the 6th best of 10, and behind Toronto too. However, because of the midseason outfield/bench overhaul & d’Arnaud’s return from injury, the team that ended the year was better than the full-year record showed, so it’s not just that they got hot. Also, going 11-5 in the postseason against teams that averaged about 99 wins suggests that they (by then) probably were better than an 88-win team. 538’s ELO measure, which incorporates the postseason, has them tied with the Rays as the 2nd best team behind the Dodgers; that seems high, but I think a reasonable argument could be made that they were anywhere in the 4th-8th range.
ELO is a VERY good way to think about how to adjust for performance over the course of the year. The Braves were a very different team at the end of the season than the beginning. How much? It’s worth talking about.
11-5 understates the Pythagorean a little bit, I think.
I don’t even know what the “best” and “worst” team means in this context. The postseason is different than the regular season but I don’t think that’s a bad thing.
I disagree. Teams having a 15% chance of winning the World Series from the playoff field is not the same a a 0% chance. If you took a sample of 20 years of playoffs and were able to demonstrate that the 2 weakest teams in the playoff field won the world series at a 40% or greater rate, then yes you can conclude it is a crapshoot. But, while there have been some notable recent examples, I think you will find that the percentage of weaker teams winning the tournament are significantly lower than that threshold. Better teams remain far more likely to prevail. That fact that an underdog occasionally wins does not render the entire event an exercise in random variance.
Yes. This is a stochastic process, not a deterministic one; the team with the best chance of winning does not always win.
One thing to add is that although the “stronger” teams are more likely to win than the weaker ones, there are enough weaker teams that it makes sense that every so often one or more of them win it all. Let’s say that in an 8 team playoff, 4 teams, collectively, have a 70% chance to win the world series, and the other four teams collectively have a 30% chance. We’d expect that approximately every third year, a team from the weaker group will win it. And furthermore, if those 4 better teams each have a 17.5% chance of winning it all, then we’d expect that the group of four “weaker” teams has a better shot of winning it than any one team.
(It’s obviously more complicated than this, but as a heuristic, I think it underscores the point)
The team I like the most beating the team I dislike the most… I guess it does not get much better for me.
I was heartbroken as a young Pirates fan when Francisco Cabrera blooped a run scoring base hit that Barry Bonds muffed in the 1992 NLCS, so I’ve relished every Atlanta playoff disaster since. But well done Bravos. I’ll give credit where credit’s due and like most people I really didn’t want Houston to win a ‘valid’ WS.
Sid Bream is still catching his breath 30 years hence.
chop chop
Where does this rank on greatest executive seasons ever by Anthopolous? Lose your best pitcher, best hitter, probably 3rd best hitter, completely re-tools the OF, then one of those acquisitions wins NLCS MVP, the other wins WS MVP.
I get that series MVPs can be random, but that’s incredible considering the situation.
Not only that, but if there were an MVP of the Braves-Brewers NLDS, then yet another of the midseason OF acquisitions (Pederson) probably wins that award. Ironic that probably the best player/prospect they gave up (Bryse Wilson) got them the acquisition that helped the least (Rodriguez). I think the Giants GM still deserves GM of the year, though. Maybe Anthopolous had the best executive season ever for anyone who was the 2nd best GM of the year.
The “team that wins the division that was least likely going into the season” award is manager of the year. Kepler will win that. I’d like to hear an argument for why the Giants GM should win executive of the year over AA, and that’s of course not even including the postseason. A lot of people were criticizing the Braves for buying instead of selling. And not only did the buys lead to winning the division, but they cost very little. I’d be thoroughly shocked if any player they gave up turned into an impact player.
I think Bryse Wilson has a good shot at being an impact player. He’s only 24, and he’s had flashes of brilliance at the major league level, like his 2020 NLCS Game 4 start. He’s performed slightly better with the Pirates after the trade.
Alex Jackson is a smart catcher and a good game caller. If he could make consistent contact, he could be an impact player. But he wasn’t part of Atlanta’s future in any case.
Bryce Ball, Mason Berne, Ricky DeVito, and Kasey Kalich are a long ways off from making impact.
Last but not least, Pablo Sandoval will always be an impact player. Fourth ring for the Panda!
Bryse Wilson needs a 2nd pitch to throw, much less a third pitch needed to be a reliable starter.
Unironically Pablo was a big part of the early part of the season. 11 PH RBIs in big spots, many of which resulted in close wins against division rivals. Obviously he struck out a bunch too, but it’s Pablo.
As an almost-every-game watcher of the Atlanta baseball team, he was a good producer in big spots and an even greater clubhouse presence earlier this year.
And a great hugger.
Also, let’s never forget how important Ronald Acuña Jr. was to the Braves’ second-half revival: without his contributions in the first half, the Braves would have been at least 2-4 games further back in the standings mid-season, and most likely would have stood pat (or even sold off some guys).
In my book, he’s Atlanta’s regular-season MVP.
Really boring post-season if you weren’t a fan of one of the final two teams. The style of game that is played in the post-season is, imo, pretty unwatchable absent a direct rooting interest. I mostly avoided the WS.
I watched both clinchers from Europe, and I don’t like either team.
…but I do really, really hate the Astros.
Not much of a seamaholic, are you?
He’s obviously in recovery…
The NL Postseason was pretty solid, in my opinion, but the AL Postseason was just… ugh.
Combined runs:
NL Wild Card Game: 4 runs
NLDS1: 18 runs
NLDS2: 28 runs
NLCS: 55 runs
NL Postseason run total: 105 in 16 games. 6.56 runs per game.
7 games decided by 1 run, 2 by 2 runs, 2 by 3 runs, 1 by 4 runs, 4 by 5+ runs.
AL Wild Card Game: 8 runs
ALDS1: 49 runs
ALDS2: 46 runs
ALCS: 64 runs
AL Postseason run total: 167 in 15 games. 11.13 runs per game.
2 games decided by 1 run, 1 by 2 runs, 2 by 4 runs, 10 by 5+ runs.
WS run total: 45 in 6 games, 7.5 runs per game.
1 game decided by 1 run, 1 by 2 runs, 2 by 4 runs, and 2 by 5+ runs.
2/3rds of the AL postseason games were blowouts.
1/4th of the NL postseason games were blowouts.
1/3rd of the World Series games were blowouts.
There’s not a lot of tension in blowouts.
Yeah I’ve come to think that the postseason is really for fans only. I know that seems wrong as it seems like “big sporting events” should be something for every person to tune into and watch, but the MLB postseason is a grind and if I wasn’t a Braves fan I wouldn’t have watched every game like I did. Maybe tune in for a few innings here and there but it’s not really a product for non-fans. I’m fine with that personally, but I know some people would like to use the postseason as a chance to grow the game.
I am a Braves fan, but I’m also a person who has to wake up at 5:30-6 AM every morning on the east coast. I stayed up last night, but basically no other.
If the MLB playoffs are a grind, then what do you call the NBA and NHL playoffs? At least MLB restricts the playoff entrants to 1/3 of the teams and doesn’t make every round a best of 7.
It was definitely a grind, but I’d argue it had less to do with the on-field product and more with the fact that east coasters and some central-ers (who comprise the fandom of most teams who made the postseason) had to stay up late to finish games which were not blowouts.
I distinctly remember in game 5 of the WS telling my wife I hoped the Astros scored like 7 runs in the second inning so we could go to bed.
Hate to say that I agree:
Pace of games is horrible. Last night’s wasn’t so bad, but, Game 5 was in the 5th inning 2 hr & 20 minutes after starting. As someone on the East Coast who gets up at 6:00-6:15 every day, just too hard to stay up.
I’ll admit I miss the starting pitcher going further into games. Is it trend or COVID follow up season weirdness? Hope it’s the latter.
The WS games themselves, other than Game 4, just weren’t very good. 4 of 6 games decided by 4 or more runs, 1 of the other 2 was a shut out where Houston couldn’t do anything. & the blow outs started early. In all of the 4 “blow outs”, the winning team was up big by the 5th.
That said, glad to see we got a full season in. That was not a given back in March & glad to see packed stadiums again. Also, glad to see no COVID issues/players missing time during the post season.
Anyway, Congrats to Atlanta. Deserving champs that played the best when it mattered. On to 2022…
It’s interesting though that some people are concerned with increased bullpen usage and some people are concerned with games being blowouts in the 5th inning and some people are concerned with both.
It sounds to me like if one is concerned with both, the only solution is for bullpens to somehow get worse (worse bullpens = starters going longer, also worse bullpens = more runs scored late in the game). That seems unlikely to happen as talent level is rising, and there are only ~160 SP spots in the majors compared to ~210 RP spots. The talent has to go somewhere.
I also hope the increased bullpen usage is mostly a result of pitchers showing a lot less in 2020, but at the same time we might have to recognize that this is how baseball is to be played in the future.
Atlanta tallied two walk-off wins in the NLDS. They also hit 11 home runs in the 6-game world series. They also exhibited pretty good starting pitching and great bullpen pitching. I don’t know what kind of baseball excites you. But whatever it is, Atlanta likely showed it to you this postseason.
If you’re one of those “starting pitching is the only pitching that I like to watch” guys for whatever reason, consider the fact that Morton literally pitched (great) on a broken leg and many of both teams’ starters were injured playing a game whose sole purpose is to give you entertainment.
This one was for Dale Murphy, with his consecutive MVPs and underrated brilliance on a never ending series of terrible teams.
Greatest LDS MLBers:
1. Dale Murphy
2. Orel Hershiser
3. Bryce Harper?
Cross out Hershiser…you can slot Jacoby Ellsbury below Harper to replace Hershiser.
I am genuinely confused by Orel not being Mormon!
Harmon Killebrew! Did not know that. Awesome
I’ve looked and can’t verify that Orel was/is Mormon. At best, the evidence seems very weak.
Meanwhile Harmon Killebrew converted to Mormonism as an adult. Roy Halladay was raised Mormon but didn’t practice as an adult. And Dennis Eckersley was also supposedly Mormon at some point. Other options for the top 3 include Wally Joyner, Jeff Kent, and Jack Morris.
This is a surprisingly short list (compared to the NFL- for Samoan reasons- and the NBA). But all the LDS guys I know were into basketball and football, so maybe that makes sense.
To be fair there are a whole bunch of LDS folks who played baseball (Joyner, Kent, Morris, Harper, Murphy, and Ellsbury from above, plus Jeremy Guthrie, Kyle Farnsworth, etc) but aside from Killebrew there aren’t any that we would think of as deserving Hall of Famers (unless you’re a Morris guy). A lot of this is that there’s more of a focus on football but part of it is that the growth of LDS has happened quite precipitously in recent years, and baseball’s history goes back really far.
For example, you can put together a list of Jewish ballplayers who played their entire careers before any of the non-Killebrew guys I mentioned that is roughly equivalent to that list above, anchored by Sandy Koufax, Hank Greenberg, Al Rosen, and Sid Gordon. You don’t find that many Mormon ballplayers before the 80s because there weren’t that many Mormons. Killebrew was an outlier.
So while there are definitely not that many Mormons who play ball right now, they also have a lot of time they need to make up.
Maybe Harper makes the Hall someday?
Excellent summary and thank you Dan for making this about the Braves and the game and not taking pot shots over causes du jour!
Personally I think that the narrative of the left for dead Braves winning the World Series with a bunch of spare parts from other teams is much more interesting than the actual series itself turned out to be. With the exception of game 5 it never really felt like the Astros were clicking, and the only good drama came in the non deciding game 4 with the late home runs and the lead change.
Narrative bore me. Unless they’re my personal dumb narratives, but those are Danxclusives.
Artificial media driven narratives are terrible, but it is certainly interesting to see a team exceed expectations in a way that’s a bit quirky. I think that is a fair description of what the Braves did.
Course, an interesting storyline doesn’t keep you on the edge of your seat through a series if the gameplay isn’t there. Kind of unremarkable World Series in my book for that reason.
This is a ballclub that a little over 3 months ago on July 13th had a whopping 0.3% chance of winning the World Series
Those odds are not very useful, imo.
maybe now we can get back to what really matters here – prospect coverage 🙂
“And Houston didn’t fare any better when the bats come off their shoulders. With an xBA on those hits of .199, the BABIP gods were not unkind to Fried, resulting in just four singles for Houston, never more than one in the same inning.”
I don’t think I understand this sentence. The xBA on the 4 hits was .199? That doesn’t seem like Fried was getting lucky. Or on all balls in play? And the point is that Fried earned his .266 BABIP?
I mean they weren’t merciless and screwed over a guy who didn’t deserve to have his BIP become hits. THey sometimes are!
You know the Force is with you when the Braves got MVP performances from outfielders they were able to pick up at a Saturday morning tag sale, the neighborhood Dollar Tree and also trade a guy, who hit .137 this season, for the league leader in RBI’s.
Weird thing about Duvall is that one the one hand, when I see him leading the NL in RBI’s with just slightly above average overall hitting stats, my instinct is to think “maybe overrated”.
But watching him playing the OF this year, and seeing his various defensive stats, I wasn’t aware how good his defense is. Heck, he was above average in left, right, AND center this past season by both UZR and DRS (don’t have OAA on hand). So, putting it all together, Duvall looks like a solid everyday player for at least a few more years, even at age 33.
I think there’s kind of a related law to Nichols’ Law of Catcher Defense that states that people assume that one-dimensional offensive outfielders kinda suck defensively.
Former Reds outfielders named Adam D. can grow up to become Gold Glove centerfielders after all!
Hunter Renfroe is almost a duplicate of Duvall. His outfield defense, especially his great arm, was a surprise to all Red Sox fans. Add in 30+ bombs and RF was a big reason the team went as far as it did.
Duvall has had a reputation of being a pretty good defensive OF, though earlier this year some Braves fans were saying his defense had slipped. He may have been helped by positioning guidance; Braves players have often mentioned outside-the-lines help from the coaches and the analytical guys this year, and I don’t think I had ever heard a Braves player say that sort of thing before. Also, it’s not like they have/had many other options, as Pache and Heredia weren’t hitting, Pederson looked clumsy anywhere in the OF, and even if Acuna were healthy, the team seems to have decided that playing CF increases his chance of injury. Finally, as strikeouts increase, good OF defense may not matter as much.
For Acuña, the reason the Braves stopped playing him in center field was because he had to run more in center field. They wanted to save his legs, allow him a little more energy on the base paths.
Did Alvarez face any right handers in the World Series? I can’t find those numbers anywhere and don’t know how to figure it out without spending hours poring over box scores.
Morton once, Anderson twice, Wright twice, Chavez once, Martin once. He went 0-4 with 3 BBs in those PAs.
Only one of those times was in a high leverage spot (vs. Chavez with the Braves up 4-3 in the 3rd inning of game 5 with two runners on).
.000/.429/.000 is actually good, right?
Really happy for the Braves, specially since they took the ASG away from them.
Congratulations to Brendan Gawlowski, David Laurila, and Luke Hooper for correctly predicting the AL half of the playoff bracket, but none of you correctly predicted the Braves to even win the NL Pennant, let alone the World Series.