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Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat 6/27

12:04
Eric A Longenhagen: Good morning from Tempe, everyone.

12:05
Eric A Longenhagen: Here are today’s notes: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/daily-prospect-notes-627/

12:05
Eric A Longenhagen: Had upload issues with the Norge Ruiz video overnight. I’ll tweet a link when it’s up so you can all get a peak.

12:05
Eric A Longenhagen: Alright, let’s do it.

12:05
Sour beer: Who are some of the biggest non-top-100 prospect movers this year so far?

12:07
Eric A Longenhagen: Bo Bichette, Jesus Sanchez, Jack Flaherty, some of Philly’s arms probably move into the 100. I could sit here and come up with another dozen or so that moved up because of graduations ahead of them.

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Day 2 Draft Standouts, American League

See also: National League.

Below are some notable selections from the draft’s second day. I chatted live for the first three hours of Day 2 here. If you missed any Day 1 analysis, the draft live stream is located here and analysis of the first day is available here for the American League and here for the National League. My top 100 with tool grades, scouting reports, etc., is here.

The numbers in parentheses beside each name indicate the round in which the relevant prospect was drafted.

Baltimore Orioles

Michael Baumann (3), a right-handed pitcher from Jacksonville, was just off my draft top 100. He’s got a strong build, above-average fastball, potential above-average slider, and had enough of a curveball and changeup to project as a starter on basis of repertoire depth.

There are concerns about the length of his arm action and the way it limits his command. CF Lamar Sparks (5) from Seven Lakes HS (TX) has a projectable frame, above-average bat speed, and runs well enough to stay in center field for a while. He’s the athletic, projectable sort of athlete on which Baltimore’s system is currently short. He’ll have to overcome his swing’s length.

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Day 2 Draft Standouts, National League

Below are some notable selections from the draft’s second day. I chatted live for the first three hours of Day 2 here. If you missed any Day 1 analysis, the draft live stream is located here and analysis of the first day is available here for the American League and here for the National League. My top 100 with tool grades, scouting reports, etc., is here.

The numbers in parentheses beside each name indicate the round in which the relevant prospect was drafted.

Arizona Diamondbacks

High school pitchers Matt Tabor (3) and Harrison Francis (4) both have promising physical projection, and Tabor’s velocity was already starting to climb this spring.

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Day 1 Draft Recap, American League

Also see: National League.

Below are brief summaries of each American League team’s draft class following the end of the event’s first day. The numbers in parentheses beside each name indicate where the prospect was ranked on my top-100 list, which is also where players’ scouting reports can be found. Players who were not on my top 100 and were drafted yesterday have brief reports in this post.

Baltimore Orioles

Round 1, Pick 21 — D.L. Hall, LHP, Valdosta HS (GA) (10)
Round 2, Pick 60 — Adam Hall, SS, A.B. Lucas Seconday (ON, Canada) (NR)
Hall runs well enough to play up the middle but scouts question his athleticism, physicality, and swing. He’s an interesting developmental project.
Comp B, Pick 74 — Zac Lowther, LHP, Xavier Univ. (89)

Thoughts
The first Hall was great value and, I think, immediately became the organization’s best prospect; the second seemed a bit of a reach.

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Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat, MLB Draft Day 2

12:16
Eric A Longenhagen: Hi everyone. Today’s chat is going to be a slow burn, but hopefully active through much of Day 2 of the draft.

12:16
Eric A Longenhagen: We’re going to start in a few, but first, I desperately need coffee. Some I’m going to quickly acquire it.

12:18
Eric A Longenhagen: Okay, I have returned.

12:18
Eric A Longenhagen: Links: Day 1 draft recap for NL clubs: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/day-1-draft-recap-national-league/

12:18
Eric A Longenhagen: Cistulli sounds nearly done editing the AL piece, I’ll post when it’s ready.

12:19
Babe Lincoln: Best Day 1?

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Day 1 Draft Recap, National League

Also see: American League.

Below are brief summaries of each National League team’s draft class following the end of the event’s first day. The numbers in parentheses beside each name indicate where the prospect was ranked on my top-100 list, which is also where players’ scouting reports can be found. Players who were not on my top 100 and were drafted yesterday have brief reports in this post.

Arizona Diamondbacks

Round 1, Pick 7 — Pavin Smith, 1B, Virginia (20)
Round 2, Pick 44 — Drew Ellis, 1B/3B, Louisville (84)
Comp B, Pick 68 — Daulton Varsho, C, UW-Milwaukee (NR)
Varsho’s a stocky, plus-running catcher with high-effort, above-average bat speed. He has some catcher’s traits but his arm strength might not fit behind the plate. Some have concerns about strikeouts.

Thoughts
Three college performers, two whose futures likely lie at first base.

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FanGraphs’ 2017 Mock Draft, Final Edition

What follows is my last attempt to mock out the first round of the 2017 amateur draft. It’s mostly names with teams and nothing more, but I’ve included exposition where I think it’s merited. I’ll update it as information flows throughout the day, perhaps several times. Players have been assigned to teams based on multiple factors: rumors I’ve heard from various industry sources, the presence of front-office members at certain games (especially lately), each club’s own particular modus operandi, etc. Be sure to check out our draft rankings here. Chris Mitchell and I will be covering the draft live here.

1. Minnesota – Brendan McKay, 1B/LHP, Lousiville
I’ve heard JSerra SS Royce Lewis was being considered above where I had him on my last mock (which was as a potential option at No. 3, mocked at No. 5) and MLB.com has reported that it’s at No. 1. Presumably, Lewis would be an underslot target. That said, he’s a Boras advisee and an option at third overall, whereas McKay’s next home is at pick No. 4, so I’m not sure how Minnesota has more negotiating leverage over Lewis than McKay. If they take Lewis, I think it’s just because they like him most and the savings will be marginal.

2. Cincinnati – Hunter Greene, RHP, Notre Dame HS (CA)

3. San Diego – MacKenzie Gore, LHP, Whiteville HS (NC)
Greene is the other option, if he’s still available, with Lewis as a dark horse.

4. Tampa Bay – Royce Lewis, SS, JSerra HS (CA)
I think McKay stops here if he falls. Alabama high school OF Bubba Thompson has been mentioned as an underslot possibility here.


Royce Lewis: now to Tampa Bay? (Photo: Bill Mitchell)

5. Atlanta – Kyle Wright, RHP, Vanderbilt
Wright is the top player on my board, and I think he’d be a steal here, but there’s a chance Atlanta goes underslot with Concordia Lutheran HS (TX) Shane Baz, UC Irvine 2B? Keston Hiura and Huntington Beach HS 1B Nick Pratto. They’ve also had North Carolina prep outfielder Austin Beck in to work out, but I think there’s less money to be saved there than with the other names. If Wright doesn’t go here, he should be considered the favorite at each pick until he does.

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Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat: 6/6

12:01
Eric A Longenhagen: Good morning from, pretty sure it’s Tempe? Yes, it must be.

12:01
Eric A Longenhagen: Mock draft went live yesterday, it’s here: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/fangraphs-2017-mock-draft/

12:02
Eric A Longenhagen: Today’s daily notes have a few more rumors. I’ll link that here when it goes live.

12:02
Hobbs: At this point are you moving Acuna up? Rather have him or Eloy Jimenez longterm in real life and fantasy (if you answer fantasy questions)? Thanks.

12:03
Eric A Longenhagen: I’d give it another month. Probably have those two on equal footing at this point. Easier to see elite power from Eloy, Acuna has a better defensive home, might steal you 15-20 bags.

12:03
Estuve : How much cheaper would Gore have to be than Greene for you to draft him if you were in charge of a team with a top pick (let’s say the Reds)?

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FanGraphs’ 2017 Mock Draft

What follows is my best guess for the first round of the 2017 amateur draft. I’ll update it the day of the draft itself (June 12), perhaps several times. Players have been assigned to teams based on multiple factors: rumors I’ve heard from various industry sources, the presence of front-office members at certain games (especially lately), each club’s own particular modus operandi, etc. Be sure to check out our draft rankings here.

1. Minnesota – Kyle Wright, RHP, Vanderbilt
It sounds like Louisville LHP/1B Brendan McKay is also under heavy consideration here and that Minnesota would evaluate him both ways in pro ball for a while. Hunter Greene and MacKenzie Gore are dark horses but less likely than the Wright or McKay.

2. Cincinnati – Hunter Greene, RHP, Notre Dame HS (CA)
The Reds had about a half-dozen scouts at the ACC tournament in Louisville and watched Brendan McKay’s middling start, though I think they prefer him as a bat. He’s a possibility, but Greene is more likely and, in my opinion, the better prospect.

3. San Diego – MacKenzie Gore, LHP, Whiteville HS (NC)
I think the Padres would take Greene if he were available here and would be fine with JSerra shortstop Royce Lewis, too, but Padres decision makers have seen some of Gore’s best starts all year.

4. Tampa Bay – Brendan McKay, 1B/LHP, Lousiville
I think this is where McKay stops and that the Rays take him as a bat. If McKay goes at No. 1, I think Wright goes here, though the Rays had multiple high-level executives at MacKenzie Gore’s last start, too.

5. Atlanta – Royce Lewis, SS, JSerra HS (CA)
There have been a lot of crazy rumors about the Braves and they can’t all possibly be true, but of course the Braves haven’t been afraid to do things differently in order to maximize the overall talent they get in a single class before. As such, we have to at least consider the possibility they might get creative here. I think they’d like McKay or Gore and there’s a chance they cut an underslot deal (it would have to be at a huge discount and would still be risky), but Lewis is the best player on the board in this scenario.


Royce Lewis: going to Atlanta? (Photo: Bill Mitchell)

6. Oakland – Austin Beck, OF, North Davidson HS (NC)
Beck had a private workout in Oakland over the weekend and has the kind of tools the A’s can’t buy on the open market.

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Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat 5/30

12:02

Eric A Longenhagen: Good noon from Catasauqua, PA. Here is a link to today’s notes with notes from my look at Brendan McKay and more: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/daily-prospect-notes-530/

12:02

Ira: Can we expect a write up on Luis Robert? What’s your scouting report on him?

12:03

Eric A Longenhagen: Once he starts playing actual games, sure. I wrote him up last summer when I saw him and in the hardball times annual over the winter. He’s a very good prospect, fits somewhere in the middle of a top 100 based on what I’ve seen an the reports I’ve gotten.

12:03

J: Most upside in this year’s draft? Highest floor?

12:04

Eric A Longenhagen: Obviously this question requires certain assumptions, including me assuming you know those assumptions. But with that in mind: Greene has the most upside, McKay has the highest floor.

12:04

Greg: Any new draft buzz in the top 5?

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