Author Archive

Top 22 Prospects: Texas Rangers

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the Texas Rangers farm system. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as from my own observations. The KATOH statistical projections, probable-outcome graphs, and (further down) Mahalanobis comps have been provided by Chris Mitchell. For more information on the 20-80 scouting scale by which all of my prospect content is governed you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this. -Eric Longenhagen

The KATOH projection system uses minor-league data and Baseball America prospect rankings to forecast future performance in the major leagues. For each player, KATOH produces a WAR forecast for his first six years in the major leagues. There are drawbacks to scouting the stat line, so take these projections with a grain of salt. Due to their purely objective nature, the projections here can be useful in identifying prospects who might be overlooked or overrated. Due to sample-size concerns, only players with at least 200 minor-league plate appearances or batters faced last season have received projections. -Chris Mitchell

Other Lists
NL West (ARI, COL, LAD, SD, SF)
AL Central (CHW, CLE, DET, KC, MIN)
NL Central (CHC, CIN, PIT, MIL, StL)
NL East (ATL, MIA, NYM, PHI, WAS)
AL East (BAL, BOSNYY, TB, TOR)
AL West (HOU, LAA, SEA)

Rangers Top Prospects
Rk Name Age Highest Level Position ETA FV
1 Leodys Taveras 18 A CF 2020 55
2 Yohander Mendez 22 MLB LHP 2017 55
3 Ariel Jurado 21 AA RHP 2018 50
4 Cole Ragans 19 R LHP 2020 50
5 Ronald Guzman 22 AAA 1B 2018 45
6 Jose Trevino 24 AA C 2018 45
7 Joe Palumbo 22 A+ LHP 2020 45
8 Brett Martin 21 A+ LHP 2020 45
9 Andy Ibanez 24 AA 2B 2018 45
10 Anderson Tejeda 18 A SS 2021 45
11 Alex Speas 19 R RHP 2021 45
12 Josh Morgan 21 R INF 2020 40
13 Connor Sadzeck 25 AA RHP 2017 40
14 Michael DeLeon 20 AA SS 2019 40
15 Miguel Aparicio 18 R CF 2020 40
16 Eric Jenkins 20 A+ CF 2021 40
17 Mike Matuella 22 A- RHP 2019 40
18 Jose Leclerc 23 MLB RHP 2017 40
19 Drew Robinson 24 MLB INF 2017 40
20 Yanio Perez 21 A OF 2019 40
21 Kole Enright 19 R INF 2021 40
22 Jairo Beras 22 A+ OF 2020 40

55 FV Prospects

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2015 from Dominican Republic
Age 18 Height 6’1 Weight 170 Bat/Throw S/R
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/60 40/50 20/45 60/60 45/60 60/60

Relevant/Interesting Metrics
Has recorded .275 career average.

Scouting Report
Taveras signed for $2.1 million during the 2015 July 2 period and debuted in the DSL last year but, even in a brief time there, was clearly too advanced for that level. After 11 games in the DSL he came to Arizona for rookie ball. Scouts flocked to Arizona mid-summer to get a look at Taveras ahead of the trade deadline and he was a frequently discussed name in July. He has a very mature feel to hit, especially from the left side of the plate, with low-effort plus bat speed, barrel control, and a willingness to take what pitchers give him if a situation dictates it necessary for him to make contact. He also tracks pitches well, and scouts have a future 60 or better on the bat.

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Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat, Extended Spring Edition

1:00
Eric A Longenhagen: Good morning from lovely Tempe.

1:01
Eric A Longenhagen: The Mariners list went up today: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/top-16-prospects-seattle-mariners/

1:01
Eric A Longenhagen: Houston’s went up yesterday: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/top-21-prospects-houston-astros/

1:01
Eric A Longenhagen: I’ll be wrapping up Texas and Oakland tomorrow and Thursday so they should be up either late this week or Monday next.

1:02
Eric A Longenhagen: Also, this just went up: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/tuesday-cup-of-coffee-411/

1:03
Eric A Longenhagen: OKay, we chat.

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Top 16 Prospects: Seattle Mariners

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the Seattle Mariners farm system. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as from my own observations. The KATOH statistical projections, probable-outcome graphs, and (further down) Mahalanobis comps have been provided by Chris Mitchell. For more information on the 20-80 scouting scale by which all of my prospect content is governed you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this. -Eric Longenhagen

The KATOH projection system uses minor-league data and Baseball America prospect rankings to forecast future performance in the major leagues. For each player, KATOH produces a WAR forecast for his first six years in the major leagues. There are drawbacks to scouting the stat line, so take these projections with a grain of salt. Due to their purely objective nature, the projections here can be useful in identifying prospects who might be overlooked or overrated. Due to sample-size concerns, only players with at least 200 minor-league plate appearances or batters faced last season have received projections. -Chris Mitchell

Other Lists
NL West (ARI, COL, LAD, SD, SF)
AL Central (CHW, CLE, DET, KC, MIN)
NL Central (CHC, CIN, PIT, MIL, StL)
NL East (ATL, MIA, NYM, PHI, WAS)
AL East (BAL, BOSNYY, TB, TOR)
NL West (HOU, LAA)

Mariners Top Prospects
Rk Name Age Highest Level Position ETA FV
1 Kyle Lewis 21 A- OF 2019 55
2 Tyler O’Neill 21 AAA OF 2017 50
3 Nick Neidert 20 A+ RHP 2019 45
4 Mitch Haniger 26 MLB OF 2016 45
5 Andrew Moore 22 AA RHP 2017 45
6 Dan Altavilla 24 MLB RHP 2017 45
7 Dan Vogelbach 24 MLB 1B 2017 45
8 Ben Gamel 24 MLB OF 2017 40
9 Guillermo Heredia 26 MLB OF 2017 40
10 Max Povse 23 AA RHP 2018 40
11 Chris Torres 19 R SS 2020 40
12 Brayan Hernandez 19 R CF 2020 40
13 Thyago Vieira 24 AA RHP 2018 40
14 Bryson Brigman 21 A 2B 2019 40
15 Joe Rizzo 19 R 3B 2020 40
16 Braden Bishop 23 A+ CF 2019 40

55 FV Prospects

1. Kyle Lewis, OF
Drafted: 1st Round, 2016 from Mercer
Age 21 Height 6’4 Weight 205 Bat/Throw R/R
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/45 60/70 40/60 45/40 45/55 60/60

Relevant/Interesting Metrics
Slashed .395/.535/.731 with 20 home runs as junior at Mercer.

Scouting Report
Lewis crashed the national party on the Cape in 2015, distinguishing himself as the most talented prospect and youngest regular on an Orleans roster teeming with talent. (Half of the Firebirds roster were honest-to-god prospects.) His junior year at Mercer included 20 home runs, a Golden Spikes award, and questions about the quality of pitching he faced in the Southern Conference.

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Top 21 Prospects: Houston Astros

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the Houston Astros farm system. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as from my own observations. The KATOH statistical projections, probable-outcome graphs, and (further down) Mahalanobis comps have been provided by Chris Mitchell. For more information on the 20-80 scouting scale by which all of my prospect content is governed you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this. -Eric Longenhagen

The KATOH projection system uses minor-league data and Baseball America prospect rankings to forecast future performance in the major leagues. For each player, KATOH produces a WAR forecast for his first six years in the major leagues. There are drawbacks to scouting the stat line, so take these projections with a grain of salt. Due to their purely objective nature, the projections here can be useful in identifying prospects who might be overlooked or overrated. Due to sample-size concerns, only players with at least 200 minor-league plate appearances or batters faced last season have received projections. -Chris Mitchell

Other Lists
NL West (ARI, COL, LAD, SD, SF)
AL Central (CHW, CLE, DET, KC, MIN)
NL Central (CHC, CIN, PIT, MIL, StL)
NL East (ATL, MIA, NYM, PHI, WAS)
AL East (BAL, BOSNYY, TB, TOR)
NL West (LAA)

Astros Top Prospects
Rk Name Age Highest Level Position ETA FV
1 Francis Martes 21 AA RHP 2018 60
2 Kyle Tucker 20 A+ OF 2019 55
3 Franklin Perez 19 A RHP 2020 50
4 Forrest Whitley 19 R RHP 2019 50
5 Ramon Laureano 22 AA OF 2017 50
6 David Paulino 23 MLB RHP 2017 50
7 Derek Fisher 23 AAA OF 2017 45
8 Teoscar Hernandez 24 MLB OF 2017 45
9 Gilberto Celestino 18 R OF 2020 45
10 Daz Cameron 20 A OF 2020 45
11 Miguelangel Sierra 19 A- SS 2020 45
12 Cionel Perez 20 R LHP 2019 40
13 Garrett Stubbs 23 AA C 2018 40
14 Jandel Gustave 24 MLB RHP 2017 40
15 JD Davis 23 AA 3B 2017 40
16 Ronnie Dawson 21 A- OF 2020 40
17 Framber Valdez 23 A+ LHP 2017 40
18 Hector Perez 20 A RHP 2020 40
19 Freud Nova 17 R SS 2021 40
20 Jake Rogers 21 A C 2019 40
21 Lupe Chavez 19 R RHP 2020 40

60 FV Prospects

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2012 from Dominican Republic
Age 21 Height 6’0 Weight 170 Bat/Throw R/R
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command
60/60 60/70 45/55 40/55

Relevant/Interesting Metrics
Recorded strikeout and walk rates of 25% and 9%, respectively, at Double-A.

Scouting Report
The story of Martes’s acquisition is well told. The effects of the deal are obviously still resonating atop Houston’s prospect list, but perhaps more significant is the way that deal changed the way complex-level ball is scouted. Since Martes was unearthed in the GCL, more and more scouts are being assigned to rookie ball in Florida and Arizona. Some clubs have scout(s) here every year, others tailor their coverage based on where they are on the competitive spectrum, with rebuilding clubs more likely to have scouts here than ones who, if they make a trade, are hunting big leaguers instead of teenage lottery tickets. So while Martes has a chance to make a significant impact on an Astros club poised to compete for their division and, maybe, a World Series, the ripples through the industry created by his acquisition are arguably more significant. Okay, on to Martes as a prospect…

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Top 14 Prospects: Los Angeles Angels

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the Los Angeles Angels farm system. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as from my own observations. The KATOH statistical projections, probable-outcome graphs, and (further down) Mahalanobis comps have been provided by Chris Mitchell. For more information on the 20-80 scouting scale by which all of my prospect content is governed you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this. -Eric Longenhagen

The KATOH projection system uses minor-league data and Baseball America prospect rankings to forecast future performance in the major leagues. For each player, KATOH produces a WAR forecast for his first six years in the major leagues. There are drawbacks to scouting the stat line, so take these projections with a grain of salt. Due to their purely objective nature, the projections here can be useful in identifying prospects who might be overlooked or overrated. Due to sample-size concerns, only players with at least 200 minor-league plate appearances or batters faced last season have received projections. -Chris Mitchell

Other Lists
NL West (ARI, COL, LAD, SD, SF)
AL Central (CHW, CLE, DET, KC, MIN)
NL Central (CHC, CIN, PIT, MIL, StL)
NL East (ATL, MIA, NYM, PHI, WAS)
AL East (BAL, BOSNYY, TB, TOR)

Angels Top Prospects
Rk Name Age Highest Level Position ETA FV
1 Jahmai Jones 19 A CF 2020 50
2 Brandon Marsh 19 R OF 2020 45
3 Matt Thaiss 21 A 1B 2018 45
4 Chris Rodriguez 18 R RHP 2020 40
5 Alex Meyer 27 MLB RHP 2017 40
6 Nate Smith 25 AAA LHP 2017 40
7 Jamie Barria 20 A RHP 2019 40
8 Keynan Middleton 23 AAA RHP 2017 40
9 Nonie Williams 18 R SS 2021 40
10 Julio Garcia 19 R SS 2021 40
11 David Fletcher 22 AA SS 2018 40
12 Jake Jewell 23 A+ RHP 2018 40
13 Taylor Ward 23 A+ C 2019 40
14 Michael Hermosillo 22 A+ OF 2019 40

50 FV Prospects

Drafted: 2nd Round, 2015 from Wesleyan School (GA)
Age 19 Height 5’11 Weight 210 Bat/Throw R/R
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
40/60 40/50 30/45 60/60 45/55 45/45

Relevant/Interesting Metrics
Slashed .302/.379/.422 in 2016.

Scouting Report
Jones had already asserted himself as the organization’s best prospect by the fall after he was drafted, impressing scouts not only with his as-advertised athleticism and speed but with a surprisingly polished feel to hit and noticeable work ethic.

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Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat, 4/4

12:02
Eric A Longenhagen: Mornin’. Shorter chat today since I was on for three hours last night during our opening day chat marathon.

12:03
12:04
Eric A Longenhagen: One last thing before I start, there A LOT of questions in the chat asking when Prospect X is going to be in the big leagues. Blanket answer: I don’t know. Too many variables impact that sort of thing that have zero to do with the player’s performance.

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Top 17 Prospects: Toronto Blue Jays

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the Toronto Blue Jays farm system. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as from my own observations. The KATOH statistical projections, probable-outcome graphs, and (further down) Mahalanobis comps have been provided by Chris Mitchell. For more information on the 20-80 scouting scale by which all of my prospect content is governed you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this. -Eric Longenhagen

The KATOH projection system uses minor-league data and Baseball America prospect rankings to forecast future performance in the major leagues. For each player, KATOH produces a WAR forecast for his first six years in the major leagues. There are drawbacks to scouting the stat line, so take these projections with a grain of salt. Due to their purely objective nature, the projections here can be useful in identifying prospects who might be overlooked or overrated. Due to sample-size concerns, only players with at least 200 minor-league plate appearances or batters faced last season have received projections. -Chris Mitchell

Other Lists
NL West (ARI, COL, LAD, SD, SF)
AL Central (CHW, CLE, DET, KC, MIN)
NL Central (CHC, CIN, PIT, MIL, StL)
NL East (ATL, MIA, NYM, PHI, WAS)
AL East (BAL, BOSNYY, TB)

Blue Jays Top Prospects
Rk Name Age Highest Level Position ETA FV
1 Vlad, Jr. Guerrero 17 R 3B 2019 55
2 Anthony Alford 22 A+ OF 2018 50
3 Sean Reid-Foley 21 A+ RHP 2019 50
4 Richard Urena 21 AA SS 2019 45
5 Jon Harris 23 A+ RHP 2018 45
6 TJ Zeuch 21 A RHP 2019 45
7 Lourdes Gurriel 23 R UTIL 2017 45
8 Rowdy Tellez 22 AA 1B 2017 45
9 Conner Greene 21 AA RHP 2018 45
10 Bo Bichette 19 R INF 2020 40
11 Justin Maese 20 A RHP 2020 40
12 Josh Palacios 21 A OF 2019 40
13 J.B. Woodman 22 A OF 2019 40
14 Reese McGuire 22 AA C 2018 40
15 Max Pentecost 24 A+ C 2018 40
16 Zach Jackson 22 A- RHP 2018 40
17 Harold Ramirez 22 AA OF 2018 40

55 FV Prospects

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2015 from Dominican Republic
Age 18 Height 6’1 Weight 200 Bat/Throw R/R
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
35/60 60/70 40/60 40/30 40/45 60/60

Relevant/Interesting Metrics
Slashed .270/.360/.450 as 17-year-old in Appy League.

Scouting Report
The Blue Jays traded for international-bonus slots and were able to avoid completely blowing out their bonus pool to sign Guerrero in 2015, instead spending in a range that only benched them from big international spending for one year instead of two. While most 17-year-old international signees spend their first pro season in the Dominican, Guerrero was advanced enough to come stateside. Not only that, but after spending time in extended spring training (and often hanging around and attentively watching Jays’ Florida State League games at night in April and May), Guerrero skipped the GCL and was sent to the Appalachian League, where he was dominant.

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Top 15 Prospects: Boston Red Sox

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the Boston Red Sox farm system. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as from my own observations. The KATOH statistical projections, probable-outcome graphs, and (further down) Mahalanobis comps have been provided by Chris Mitchell. For more information on the 20-80 scouting scale by which all of my prospect content is governed you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this. -Eric Longenhagen

The KATOH projection system uses minor-league data and Baseball America prospect rankings to forecast future performance in the major leagues. For each player, KATOH produces a WAR forecast for his first six years in the major leagues. There are drawbacks to scouting the stat line, so take these projections with a grain of salt. Due to their purely objective nature, the projections here can be useful in identifying prospects who might be overlooked or overrated. Due to sample-size concerns, only players with at least 200 minor-league plate appearances or batters faced last season have received projections. -Chris Mitchell

Other Lists
NL West (ARI, COL, LAD, SD, SF)
AL Central (CHW, CLE, DET, KC, MIN)
NL Central (CHC, CIN, PIT, MIL, StL)
NL East (ATL, MIA, NYM, PHI, WAS)
AL East (BAL, NYY, TB)

Red Sox Top Prospects
Rk Name Age Highest Level Position ETA FV
1 Andrew Benintendi 22 MLB OF 2017 65
2 Rafael Devers 20 A+ 3B 2019 55
3 Jay Groome 18 A- LHP 2020 55
4 Sam Travis 23 AAA 1B 2017 45
5 Bobby Dalbec 21 A- 3B 2019 40
6 C.J. Chatham 22 A- SS 2019 40
7 Roniel Raudes 19 A RHP 2020 40
8 Travis Lankins 22 A+ RHP 2018 40
9 Josh Ockimey 21 A 1B 2020 40
10 Brian Johnson 26 MLB LHP 2017 40
11 Ben Taylor 24 AA RHP 2017 40
12 Mike Shawaryn 22 A- RHP 2019 40
13 Michael Chavis 21 A+ 3B 2019 40
14 Kyle Martin 26 AAA RHP 2017 40
15 Aneury Tavarez 24 AAA OF 2017 40

65 FV Prospects

Drafted: 1st Round, 2015 from Arkansas
Age 22 Height 5’10 Weight 170 Bat/Throw L/L
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
60/70 55/55 45/55 55/55 50/55 50/50

Relevant/Interesting Metrics
Slashed .295/.360/.475 during big-league call-up.

Scouting Report
There were evaluators who didn’t know Benintendi was a draft-eligible sophomore as the 2015 season began. They had little reason to. He was solid but unspectacular as a freshman at Arkansas (in part due to injury), showing promising on-base skills but hitting for zero power while offering what appeared to be little physical projection. He didn’t play summer ball as a rising sophomore, either, as he recovered from a leg injury. He was allowed to do upper-body strength training and little else, so Benintendi bulked up. The following spring he was dominant, whacking 35 extra-base hits, posting a 1.205 OPS against mostly SEC opponents, and rocketing up boards into the top three or four for some clubs. The Red Sox drafted him seventh overall.

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Top 31 Prospects: Tampa Bay Rays

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the Tampa Bay Rays farm system. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as from my own observations. The KATOH statistical projections, probable-outcome graphs, and (further down) Mahalanobis comps have been provided by Chris Mitchell. For more information on the 20-80 scouting scale by which all of my prospect content is governed you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this. -Eric Longenhagen

The KATOH projection system uses minor-league data and Baseball America prospect rankings to forecast future performance in the major leagues. For each player, KATOH produces a WAR forecast for his first six years in the major leagues. There are drawbacks to scouting the stat line, so take these projections with a grain of salt. Due to their purely objective nature, the projections here can be useful in identifying prospects who might be overlooked or overrated. Due to sample-size concerns, only players with at least 200 minor-league plate appearances or batters faced last season have received projections. -Chris Mitchell

Other Lists
NL West (ARI, COL, LAD, SD, SF)
AL Central (CHW, CLE, DET, KC, MIN)
NL Central (CHC, CIN, PIT, MIL, StL)
NL East (ATL, MIA, NYM, PHI, WAS)
AL East (BAL, BOSNYY, TB, TOR)

Rays Top Prospects
Rk Name Age Highest Level Position ETA FV
1 Willy Adames 21 AA SS 2018 60
2 Brent Honeywell 21 AA RHP 2018 55
3 Jose DeLeon 24 MLB RHP 2016 55
4 Jesus Sanchez 19 R OF 2020 50
5 Jake Bauers 21 AA 1B 2018 45
6 Josh Lowe 19 R CF 2021 45
7 Chih-Wei Hu 23 AAA RHP 2018 45
8 Lucius Fox 19 A SS 2021 45
9 Casey Gillaspie 24 AAA 1B 2017 45
10 Adrian Rondon 18 R 3B 2021 45
11 Garrett Whitley 20 A- OF 2021 45
12 Daniel Robertson 23 AAA UTIL 2017 40
13 Austin Franklin 19 R RHP 2021 40
14 Justin Williams 21 AA OF 2019 40
15 Jacob Faria 23 AAA RHP 2017 40
16 Ryne Stanek 25 AAA RHP 2017 40
17 Jake Fraley 21 A- OF 2019 40
18 Diego Castillo 23 R RHP 2017 40
19 Chris Betts 20 A- C 2020 40
20 Resly Linares 19 R LHP 2020 40
21 Michael Santos 21 A RHP 2019 40
22 Kevin Padlo 20 A 3B 2020 40
23 Taylor Guerrieri 24 AA RHP 2017 40
24 Hunter Wood 23 AA RHP 2017 40
25 Jaime Schultz 25 AAA RHP 2017 40
26 Greg Harris 22 AAA RHP 2018 40
27 David Rodriguez 21 R C 2019 40
28 Jose Alvarado 21 A+ LHP 2017 40
29 Brandon Koch 23 R RHP 2018 40
30 Ryan Boldt 22 A- CF 2019 40
31 Jhonleider Salinas 21 R RHP 2020 40

60 FV Prospects

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2012 from Dominican Republic
Age 21 Height 6’1 Weight 180 Bat/Throw R/R
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
40/55 55/60 40/55 45/40 40/45 60/60

Relevant/Interesting Metrics
Slashed .270/.370/.430 as a 20-year-old at Double-A.

Scouting Report
The barrel-chested Adames might ordinarily project to move off shortstop given his build, but it seems to me that Tampa has a rather liberal organizational philosophy about what constitutes a viable defensive shortstop and Adames isn’t going to be any more offensive there than aging Asdrubal Cabrera and Yunel Escobar have been in recent years.

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Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat, All the Brewers, all the Angels

12:01
Eric A Longenhagen: Howdy, is this thing on?

12:01
Eric A Longenhagen: ‘Tis.

12:01
Eric A Longenhagen: Let me tweet a link to the started chat and we’ll get rolling.

12:03
Eric A Longenhagen: Okay. How are you folks? I am well. Walker Buehler is pitching in the Dodgers big league road game today so if you’ve got MLB.tv and that game is on, you should check that out.

12:03
Gary: Are you heading to Florida for camps there at all or just staying in Arizona?

12:03
Eric A Longenhagen: Just here, if I do Florida it will be to straddle Extended and the FSL while also hitting draft stuff.

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