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Day 1 Draft Recap, American League

Also see: National League.

Below are brief summaries of each American League team’s draft class following the end of the event’s first day. The numbers in parentheses beside each name indicate where the prospect was ranked on my top-100 list, which is also where players’ scouting reports can be found. Players who were not on my top 100 and were drafted yesterday have brief reports in this post.

Baltimore Orioles

Round 1, Pick 21 — D.L. Hall, LHP, Valdosta HS (GA) (10)
Round 2, Pick 60 — Adam Hall, SS, A.B. Lucas Seconday (ON, Canada) (NR)
Hall runs well enough to play up the middle but scouts question his athleticism, physicality, and swing. He’s an interesting developmental project.
Comp B, Pick 74 — Zac Lowther, LHP, Xavier Univ. (89)

Thoughts
The first Hall was great value and, I think, immediately became the organization’s best prospect; the second seemed a bit of a reach.

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Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat, MLB Draft Day 2

12:16
Eric A Longenhagen: Hi everyone. Today’s chat is going to be a slow burn, but hopefully active through much of Day 2 of the draft.

12:16
Eric A Longenhagen: We’re going to start in a few, but first, I desperately need coffee. Some I’m going to quickly acquire it.

12:18
Eric A Longenhagen: Okay, I have returned.

12:18
Eric A Longenhagen: Links: Day 1 draft recap for NL clubs: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/day-1-draft-recap-national-league/

12:18
Eric A Longenhagen: Cistulli sounds nearly done editing the AL piece, I’ll post when it’s ready.

12:19
Babe Lincoln: Best Day 1?

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Day 1 Draft Recap, National League

Also see: American League.

Below are brief summaries of each National League team’s draft class following the end of the event’s first day. The numbers in parentheses beside each name indicate where the prospect was ranked on my top-100 list, which is also where players’ scouting reports can be found. Players who were not on my top 100 and were drafted yesterday have brief reports in this post.

Arizona Diamondbacks

Round 1, Pick 7 — Pavin Smith, 1B, Virginia (20)
Round 2, Pick 44 — Drew Ellis, 1B/3B, Louisville (84)
Comp B, Pick 68 — Daulton Varsho, C, UW-Milwaukee (NR)
Varsho’s a stocky, plus-running catcher with high-effort, above-average bat speed. He has some catcher’s traits but his arm strength might not fit behind the plate. Some have concerns about strikeouts.

Thoughts
Three college performers, two whose futures likely lie at first base.

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FanGraphs’ 2017 Mock Draft, Final Edition

What follows is my last attempt to mock out the first round of the 2017 amateur draft. It’s mostly names with teams and nothing more, but I’ve included exposition where I think it’s merited. I’ll update it as information flows throughout the day, perhaps several times. Players have been assigned to teams based on multiple factors: rumors I’ve heard from various industry sources, the presence of front-office members at certain games (especially lately), each club’s own particular modus operandi, etc. Be sure to check out our draft rankings here. Chris Mitchell and I will be covering the draft live here.

1. Minnesota – Brendan McKay, 1B/LHP, Lousiville
I’ve heard JSerra SS Royce Lewis was being considered above where I had him on my last mock (which was as a potential option at No. 3, mocked at No. 5) and MLB.com has reported that it’s at No. 1. Presumably, Lewis would be an underslot target. That said, he’s a Boras advisee and an option at third overall, whereas McKay’s next home is at pick No. 4, so I’m not sure how Minnesota has more negotiating leverage over Lewis than McKay. If they take Lewis, I think it’s just because they like him most and the savings will be marginal.

2. Cincinnati – Hunter Greene, RHP, Notre Dame HS (CA)

3. San Diego – MacKenzie Gore, LHP, Whiteville HS (NC)
Greene is the other option, if he’s still available, with Lewis as a dark horse.

4. Tampa Bay – Royce Lewis, SS, JSerra HS (CA)
I think McKay stops here if he falls. Alabama high school OF Bubba Thompson has been mentioned as an underslot possibility here.


Royce Lewis: now to Tampa Bay? (Photo: Bill Mitchell)

5. Atlanta – Kyle Wright, RHP, Vanderbilt
Wright is the top player on my board, and I think he’d be a steal here, but there’s a chance Atlanta goes underslot with Concordia Lutheran HS (TX) Shane Baz, UC Irvine 2B? Keston Hiura and Huntington Beach HS 1B Nick Pratto. They’ve also had North Carolina prep outfielder Austin Beck in to work out, but I think there’s less money to be saved there than with the other names. If Wright doesn’t go here, he should be considered the favorite at each pick until he does.

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Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat: 6/6

12:01
Eric A Longenhagen: Good morning from, pretty sure it’s Tempe? Yes, it must be.

12:01
Eric A Longenhagen: Mock draft went live yesterday, it’s here: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/fangraphs-2017-mock-draft/

12:02
Eric A Longenhagen: Today’s daily notes have a few more rumors. I’ll link that here when it goes live.

12:02
Hobbs: At this point are you moving Acuna up? Rather have him or Eloy Jimenez longterm in real life and fantasy (if you answer fantasy questions)? Thanks.

12:03
Eric A Longenhagen: I’d give it another month. Probably have those two on equal footing at this point. Easier to see elite power from Eloy, Acuna has a better defensive home, might steal you 15-20 bags.

12:03
Estuve : How much cheaper would Gore have to be than Greene for you to draft him if you were in charge of a team with a top pick (let’s say the Reds)?

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FanGraphs’ 2017 Mock Draft

What follows is my best guess for the first round of the 2017 amateur draft. I’ll update it the day of the draft itself (June 12), perhaps several times. Players have been assigned to teams based on multiple factors: rumors I’ve heard from various industry sources, the presence of front-office members at certain games (especially lately), each club’s own particular modus operandi, etc. Be sure to check out our draft rankings here.

1. Minnesota – Kyle Wright, RHP, Vanderbilt
It sounds like Louisville LHP/1B Brendan McKay is also under heavy consideration here and that Minnesota would evaluate him both ways in pro ball for a while. Hunter Greene and MacKenzie Gore are dark horses but less likely than the Wright or McKay.

2. Cincinnati – Hunter Greene, RHP, Notre Dame HS (CA)
The Reds had about a half-dozen scouts at the ACC tournament in Louisville and watched Brendan McKay’s middling start, though I think they prefer him as a bat. He’s a possibility, but Greene is more likely and, in my opinion, the better prospect.

3. San Diego – MacKenzie Gore, LHP, Whiteville HS (NC)
I think the Padres would take Greene if he were available here and would be fine with JSerra shortstop Royce Lewis, too, but Padres decision makers have seen some of Gore’s best starts all year.

4. Tampa Bay – Brendan McKay, 1B/LHP, Lousiville
I think this is where McKay stops and that the Rays take him as a bat. If McKay goes at No. 1, I think Wright goes here, though the Rays had multiple high-level executives at MacKenzie Gore’s last start, too.

5. Atlanta – Royce Lewis, SS, JSerra HS (CA)
There have been a lot of crazy rumors about the Braves and they can’t all possibly be true, but of course the Braves haven’t been afraid to do things differently in order to maximize the overall talent they get in a single class before. As such, we have to at least consider the possibility they might get creative here. I think they’d like McKay or Gore and there’s a chance they cut an underslot deal (it would have to be at a huge discount and would still be risky), but Lewis is the best player on the board in this scenario.


Royce Lewis: going to Atlanta? (Photo: Bill Mitchell)

6. Oakland – Austin Beck, OF, North Davidson HS (NC)
Beck had a private workout in Oakland over the weekend and has the kind of tools the A’s can’t buy on the open market.

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Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat 5/30

12:02

Eric A Longenhagen: Good noon from Catasauqua, PA. Here is a link to today’s notes with notes from my look at Brendan McKay and more: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/daily-prospect-notes-530/

12:02

Ira: Can we expect a write up on Luis Robert? What’s your scouting report on him?

12:03

Eric A Longenhagen: Once he starts playing actual games, sure. I wrote him up last summer when I saw him and in the hardball times annual over the winter. He’s a very good prospect, fits somewhere in the middle of a top 100 based on what I’ve seen an the reports I’ve gotten.

12:03

J: Most upside in this year’s draft? Highest floor?

12:04

Eric A Longenhagen: Obviously this question requires certain assumptions, including me assuming you know those assumptions. But with that in mind: Greene has the most upside, McKay has the highest floor.

12:04

Greg: Any new draft buzz in the top 5?

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The 2017 Draft Sortable Board and Thoughts on the Class

Intro
We’re cutting the ribbon on the 2017 MLB Draft Sortable Board. The board will evolve and expand as we approach the draft, and Future Value grades will be added as the cement dries on player evaluations. For info on the 20-80 scale, by which the players are evaluated and, ultimately, the board is governed, bang it here. For info on Future Value, it’s strengths and flaws as a shorthand measurement, read this.

Thoughts on the Class Quality
The 2017 class is about average on overall talent and perhaps a bit below average as far as depth is concerned. The strength atop the class, despite Florida RHP Alex Faedo’s slightly diluted stuff, remains the terrific group of college pitchers who all have a chance to go in the top half of the first round. Faedo, Oregon LHP David Peterson, Louisville LHP Brendan McKay, Vanderbilt RHP Kyle Wright, and North Carolina RHP J.B. Bukauskas are all fairly easy to project as starters and have a chance to make up 33% of the top 15 picks. UCLA righty Griffin Canning also has consensus starter projection but lacks the stuff of those ahead of him and has been used heavily, at times throwing 120-140 pitches in a single start.

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Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat, Room and Board

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Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat 5/15

1:31
Eric A Longenhagen: Morning. Link:

1:31
Eric A Longenhagen: And chat…

1:31
Buck: Small sample size for sure. But is there anything I can take from Acuna’s hot start in Double A?

1:32
Eric A Longenhagen: No, especially not since last week’s chat was made up of an overwhelming number of back seat Player Dev coordinators criticizing his promotion.

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