Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat, MLB Draft Day 2 by Eric Longenhagen June 13, 2017 12:16 Eric A Longenhagen: Hi everyone. Today’s chat is going to be a slow burn, but hopefully active through much of Day 2 of the draft. 12:16 Eric A Longenhagen: We’re going to start in a few, but first, I desperately need coffee. Some I’m going to quickly acquire it. 12:18 Eric A Longenhagen: Okay, I have returned. 12:18 Eric A Longenhagen: Links: Day 1 draft recap for NL clubs: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/day-1-draft-recap-national-league/ 12:18 Eric A Longenhagen: Cistulli sounds nearly done editing the AL piece, I’ll post when it’s ready. 12:19 Babe Lincoln: Best Day 1? 12:19 Eric A Longenhagen: Reds 12:19 Babe Lincoln: Worst Day 1? 12:19 Eric A Longenhagen: A’s 12:19 Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: The Rays have stated that McKay will be used as a two-way player. What level do you think he gets assigned (short season or A ball, where Nathaniel Lowe is already swinging well at 1b), and how far between that initial placement and the show do you think he makes it while still playing on both sides? 12:22 Eric A Longenhagen: He probably gets started in the GCL but I’d push him aggressively as a hitter to see what he is already capable of handling/adjusting to. Port Charlotte by the end of the summer. No, I don’t think he makes it both ways. 12:22 CamdenWarehouse: When I listened to your appearance on the Ringer podcast, it was so weird to hear you called the lead prospect analyst and not the lead prospect analyst. (just pronounce them differently in your head) 12:23 Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah, it felt weird to be taken seriously for me, too. 12:23 GC: Of the remaining undrafted, which HS player is the toughest to sign away from college? 12:24 Eric A Longenhagen: Nick Brueser 12:24 Tumbler, Whiskey: Yo E, it looks like the D-backs’ draft (at least at this very early stage) hangs on being able to sign Drew Ellis. Varsho was likely an underslot deal, but do they need to save more to sign Ellis? 12:25 Eric A Longenhagen: Nah, I think Ellis is signable as is. 12:25 GC: Which draft pick in 2017 will end this season at the highest level of baseball? 12:25 Eric A Longenhagen: Bukauskas sure looks like he might race to the bigs as a reliever. 12:26 Seth: Do you think flatter slot values have reduced the amount of underslot/overslot pick combinations? Any picks today with significant signability questions? 12:26 Eric A Longenhagen: I do, or at least it makes it harder to target specific players later on and necessitates the teams take a more significant under slot haircuts. 12:26 LongLegsNiceRackMarinerMoose: 1. Surprised Carlson fell to 55? 2. Evan White skill set Darrin Erstad-ish? 3. WTH is up with Tyler O’Neill? 12:27 Eric A Longenhagen: Yes, no (White is a unicorn), bat-to-ball issues are nothing new for O’Neill, it’s why he wasn’t on my top 100. 12:27 5 Run Homer: Thoughts on Hagen Danner? 12:28 Eric A Longenhagen: Psyched Toronto drafted him as a catcher. I’m very intrigued by his power. He needs a lot of work behind the plate, but he could get there now that he’s doing it full time. 12:28 Grant: Do you think the success of Jordan Montgomery influenced the Yankees at all to pick another SC arm? 12:29 Eric A Longenhagen: No, Montgomery and Schmidt could not have more different looks about them. Totally different prospects, only commonality is the laundry. 12:29 Grant: Do certain college programs have better rapports with certain mlb teams? 12:30 Eric A Longenhagen: Yes, some coaching staffs have connections to certain front office personnel. Area scouts typically have some sort of relationship with a coaching staff, too. 12:30 Buff: Would Fernando Tatis rank ahead of all of the draftees? 12:30 Eric A Longenhagen: No, top 10 though. 12:30 Scruffy-Looking Nerf Hurler: How does Royce Lewis compare to the other top SS picks (namely Correa, Seager, Manny and Lindor) at the time of their respective drafts? Assuming of course he stays at SS, which doesn’t seem like the case. 12:32 Eric A Longenhagen: Agree with you that Lewis isn’t a SS. Doesn’t have Correa’s power projection, nor Seager’s, nor Machado’s. Might have a similar offensive profile to Lindor, but not a SS for me, let alone an elite one. I think Lewis is a really good player, but not the franchise-altering talent that all these other names are. 12:33 MaineBall: The Cape League starts tomorrow. Who are the top prospects playing there this summer that are eligible for next year’s draft? 12:34 Eric A Longenhagen: I haven’t looked at the rosters yet. Hit me up in the chat next Tuesday. Also keep in mind the Cape is where we unearth most of next year’s guys, they don’t come to the Cape preordained. 12:34 Tyrion Lannister: STL RHP Zac Gallen moved up to AA less than a year after going at the end of the 3rd round. Any updates to his scouting report? Or was he always a fast-mover? 12:35 Eric A Longenhagen: Scouting report is the same, stuff is modest but he locates and sequences well. Still a potential back end starter for me, is just more ready than your typical 3rd rounder. 12:35 Monty: It seemed obvious the Yankees were taking a calculated risk with their first round pick and in the process more than likely saving money to spend elsewhere. But what do I know? Do you think that was the plan? 12:37 Eric A Longenhagen: I said during the draft live chat that I didn’t think it made sense for them to be targeting a specific player with their next pick as an over slot deal because too many teams had multiple selections before their next pick. Do I think they wanted to be able to pick whoever they wanted regardless of signability? Yes. Do I think they took the guy who was the best prep arm on the board at that spot? Yes. 12:37 Grant: I really like the… Marlins! draft. Can Dunand play SS in the bigs? 12:37 Eric A Longenhagen: In my opinion, no. 12:38 lendel : Red Sox fan here, do you think Tanner Houck has a good shot at sticking as a starter? 12:38 Eric A Longenhagen: I give him a better shot than most, but think it’s less than 50/50. 12:39 Bert Campaneris: Your sortable board has Evan White and Nick Pratto so very close. I know each org has a different philosophy, but what factors would you use to differentiate. I feel that the versatility along (some believe that he can play the OF) along with his speed should’ve given the edge to White. I know I am nitpicking, but still (as a Royals fan) would’ve preferred White over Pratto. Which guy do you give the edge? 12:42 Eric A Longenhagen: White has zero physical projection, Pratto has more present power and should grow into at least a little bit more. If you have concerns about White having the power to profile at first base, Pratto the clear choice. 12:42 Dan: In 2016, 13 of their 15 first picks were pitchers…this year, 3/3. I think we need some pitchers in Chicago? 12:42 Eric A Longenhagen: Starting to look like clear org philosophy or preference at this point 12:44 Matt: As we get into day two (and eventually day 3) to what extent do you have knowledge of these guys? Are they all just deep picks that haven’t had much scouting outside of teams? 12:45 Eric A Longenhagen: There will be guys I know nothing about on Day 3, but today will still mostly be names I have notes on. 12:45 Elliott : There was speculation abound on twitter that Seth Romero may be pushed all the way to the majors this season to help the terrible pen down the stretch. What are your thoughts? Also, if he can’t control his temper, will we see Harper-Papelbon (Romero) round 2? 12:46 Eric A Longenhagen: It wouldn’t surprise me if he’s moved onto the 40 man quickly, if you know what I mean. 12:46 Matt: Daulton Varsho sounds intriguing but didn’t make your top 100. Is level of competition an issue for him, and do you have him ending up in the OF? 12:46 Eric A Longenhagen: Concerns about the bat-to-ball and whether or not he had the arm to catch moved him off my 100. I’d try him back there until he proves ha can’t do it. 12:47 Troutmageddon: Are Allard and Canning the Angels top 2 prospects already? 12:47 Eric A Longenhagen: No. Adell has an argument, Canning beneath Jones and Chris Rodriguez at this point. 12:47 ned flanders: Good Lord, when are you sleeping? Thank you for doing this. 12:48 Eric A Longenhagen: I’m typically up until 1 writing the Daily Notes anyway, and am oddly conditioned for this. By the end of Day 3 though, I’m a mess. 12:48 MaineBall: Who has the highest ceiling of the remaining players? 12:49 Eric A Longenhagen: If either Riley Adams or KJ Harrison can catch and tap into their power, they’re beasts. Both have huge question marks about those particular skills, which is why they’re still on the board. 12:50 Tyrion Lannister: What are the “appropriate” ages for each level? I.e. when is someone “old for” A, A+, AA, AAA? 12:50 Eric A Longenhagen: You can go on a minor leaguer’s player page on Bref and see how they stack up compared to the age baseline in their league in real time. It’s always shifting a bit. 12:51 Dave: The Phillies are already that Howard has a good chance to be a frontline starter, and that he is one of the best righthanders in the draft. Any truth to this? What is his realistic projection? 12:51 Eric A Longenhagen: Um. 12:52 Eric A Longenhagen: I like Howard, I get why teams were on him late and think they’re getting in on the ground floor of something that will be more than it is right now. But of course, he wasn’t on my top 100, so I don’t think he’s one of the best righties in the draft. 12:53 John: Do you think White Sox Scouting Director Nick Hostetler actually thinks Jake Hamburglar can stay at 3B or is he just trying to keep all doors open for the time being? 12:53 Eric A Longenhagen: They wouldn’t have taken him if they didn’t think he could stay at third, I just happen to disagree. 12:53 OB: If everything goes well for Haseley, is he a quick mover? Also, do you think he will stick in CF? 12:53 Eric A Longenhagen: Yes, yes. 12:54 Jones: The more I read about McKay, the more I feel like he has James Loney upside. Am I being too bearish? 12:54 Eric A Longenhagen: More power than Loney. 12:55 Eric A Longenhagen: AL Draft recap is up: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/day-1-draft-recap-american-league/ 12:55 Moltar: Would you live in a Mason House? Would you serve Caden Lemons-ade? 12:56 Eric A Longenhagen: 12:56 Estuve : What separates Hunter Greene from Shane Baz? 12:56 Eric A Longenhagen: Primarily? Command projection. 12:56 Steve: How hyped should I be for Jeren Kendall? If he can just get his hit to average is he a star? 12:56 Eric A Longenhagen: Maybe not quite a star, but I think if the bat gets to a 40 he’s an everyday player. 12:57 John S: Non-draft question: Any update on Anderson Espinoza? I thought he was supposed to start a throwing program a few weeks back, but… 12:57 Eric A Longenhagen: I was told June. 12:57 Junior: What are your thoughts on Nick Allen? He’s not on your best available list. 12:58 Eric A Longenhagen: He’s literally the top guy left on it: Eric Longenhagen @longenhagen Here are my Day 2 Best Available 13 Jun 2017 12:59 Bryce: Heard you had Giants taking Gonzalez. If that’s true, good call. You were the only one 1:00 Eric A Longenhagen: Yah, guess who the area scout referenced in this post works for: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/daily-prospect-notes-51/ 1:00 Eric A Longenhagen: That one was pretty easy. 1:00 Eric A Longenhagen: Also, Giants execs and Jacob’s dad go way back, I’m told. 1:00 Chris: Any real head-scratchers yesterday? 1:00 Eric A Longenhagen: For me, Deichmann. 1:01 Ian: what does Cistulli being “nearly done” editing sound like? 1:01 Eric A Longenhagen: A message that says, “Hey, I’m almost don with this.” 1:01 PD: Can the Pirates sign all 4? 1:01 Eric A Longenhagen: I think so. 1:02 Charlie: Does a draft of Burger-Sheets along with Collins in 2016 seem like overkill, or is it just Hostettler/Hahn having a clear preference in the type of prospect they believe pays off? From a fan perspective, seems like a younger kid or a toolsy player could have been nice in the 2nd round to diversify the system a little. 1:03 Eric A Longenhagen: I heard over the winter they were hoping to target some younger, toolsy high schoolers this year. My gut tells me the guy’s they’re taking are Hahn’s type more than anyone else’s. 1:03 Geronimo A: Are Greene and/or McKay in your top 100 now? 1:03 Eric A Longenhagen: The top 5 on my board are overall top 100 locks 1:03 Grant: LOTS of first basemen. LOTS. 1:03 Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah, it’s gross. 1:04 Eric A Longenhagen: An affront to god. 1:05 Eric A Longenhagen: Okay, day 2 is starting. Let me get set up to react and analyze picks as they come through. We’ll continue chatting, obviously. 1:05 Justin: I’m intrigued by the Pirates’ Cal Mitchell pick? Could you talk about him a little? Is Nick Williams a reasonable comp? 1:06 Eric A Longenhagen: Had some of the more interesting hitting actions on the showcase circuit, then didn’t hit as much this spring as many expected. I like him as a bit of a buy low reclamation project. 1:07 mike sixel: The Twins seemed to over draft (under slot) all three guys. Assuming spreading 200K around on lesser players doesn’t really matter, what’s their plan, do you think? 1:07 Eric A Longenhagen: Heard they were on other Boras advisees during last night’s selections but nothing came to fruition. Lewis is a Boras guy, so maybe the Twins are doing some math together with Scott and we’ll see them show their work today? 1:07 Eric A Longenhagen: They’re picking now. 1:08 Eric A Longenhagen: Blayne Enlow, RHP, St. Amat HS (LA) 1:09 Eric A Longenhagen: #33 overall on my board, chance for plus fastball and curveball, had one of the better max curveball spin rates measured on the showcase circuit (2700+ rpm) 1:09 Eric A Longenhagen: Reds take LHP Jacob Heatherly, Cullman HS (AL) 1:10 Eric A Longenhagen: Body lacks projection and his stuff was down a bit this spring compared to last summer, but he was low-90s with feel for an average curve and slider. He was 60 overall on my board 1:10 Eric A Longenhagen: San Diego picks Texas HS OF Mason House, who was 55 overall on my board 1:10 Eric A Longenhagen: House has great hitting actions, projectable frame, might grow into big power, no history vs elite competition 1:11 Eric A Longenhagen: It even took colleges forever to find him, he was committed to LSU Eunice in the fall 1:11 Guest: Surprised at all with the Giants breaking with tradition a bit and taking two toolsy HS guys over more polish? 1:11 Eric A Longenhagen: Yes, but all the names I had attached to them were off the board. 1:11 Eric A Longenhagen: Tampa Bay selects Taylor Walls, SS, Florida State 1:12 Eric A Longenhagen: 1:12 Eric A Longenhagen: Not a SS for me, but has a great approach, bat speed is fine. More of a UT profile for me. 1:12 Charlie: If you had to guess, pick one guy yesterday who doesn’t end up signing. 1:12 Eric A Longenhagen: I think they all will 1:12 Dude: Do you look back on past reports and look to improve your scout game? What have you gotten better at? What can you improve? How do you go about measuring these things? 1:13 Eric A Longenhagen: Yes, there’s a certain body type unto which I’ve underprojected power in the past. 1:13 Eric A Longenhagen: Braves select Freddy Tarnok, RHP, Riverview HS (FL) 1:14 Eric A Longenhagen: Two way prospect whose velo has ticked up this spring, touching 96. Braves tend to put more emphasis on pitchers’ stuff extrapolation. 1:14 Eric A Longenhagen: Oakland selects Nick Allen, SS, Francis Parker HS. #25 overall on my board, elite defensive hands, plenty of arm for short, bat to ball needs to max out for him to play every day but I thin kit will. 1:15 Eric A Longenhagen: 1:15 baby bull : is Greene a pitcher or hitter for you? 1:15 Eric A Longenhagen: Pitcher, as I’ve written several times 1:16 Eric A Longenhagen: Arizona selects Matt Tabor, RHP, Milton Academy (MA) 1:16 Eric A Longenhagen: Added weight over the winter, not everyone likes the delivery, has a chance for two average or better secondaries. 1:16 Eric A Longenhagen: Was #70 overall on my top 100 1:17 Bert Campaneris: Are you on the “Tanner Houck can be the RH Andrew Miller” bus? Why are some analyst/fan so infatuated with comps? So difficult to compare in this case as well, when they throw from opposite sides of the rubber. 1:17 Eric A Longenhagen: Comps are lazy 1:18 Eric A Longenhagen: Philadelphia selecting Connor Seabold, RHP, Cal St Fullerton. Control/command guy, velo tiicked up into the low-90s this season, average secondaries. #100 on my board 1:18 Matt: Is there a reliable way to have an idea which guys taken are underslot guys? 1:18 Eric A Longenhagen: Sourcing clubs and agents 1:19 Eric A Longenhagen: Milwaukee selects KJ Harrison, C, Oregon St 1:19 Eric A Longenhagen: #71 on my board 1:19 Eric A Longenhagen: question about whether he can catch (he did in HS but not very much in college) has plus raw power, performance has waxed and waned during his college career. 1:19 JP: Chance Sisco or Carson Kelly – who you taking as your catcher of the future for your franchise? 1:19 Eric A Longenhagen: Kelly 1:20 Bob from Tacoma: Is ranking these drafted players on your top 100 prospects list as easy as slotting their FV grade at the end of corresponding FV grade tier. So for instance Kyle Wright would be somewhere around #21? 1:20 Eric A Longenhagen: Not at the end, but certainly within the FV tier. 1:20 Eric A Longenhagen: Anaheim takes Jake Pearson, OF, West Monro HS (LA) 1:21 Eric A Longenhagen: #59 overall on my board. Has the speed for CF (plus), I like the bat to ball, don’t think there’s power here unless the swing changes, but in CF that might be okay. 1:22 Eric A Longenhagen: Rockies select Will Gaddis, RHP, Furman. Was touching 95 on the Cape last summer, stuff was down this year, deep repertoire though. 1:23 Eric A Longenhagen: White Sox take Luis Gonzalez, OF, New Mexico 1:23 Eric A Longenhagen: Solid across the board tools, nothing plus, heard some pre-draft off field questions. 1:23 Babe Lincoln: How would a player “move [Player X] back to” their later pick? What’s to stop another team from jumping on that player? 1:24 Eric A Longenhagen: Fear of unsignability. 1:24 Eric A Longenhagen: Pirates take Dylan Busby, 3B, Florida State 1:24 Eric A Longenhagen: 1:25 Eric A Longenhagen: ABove average power, really like his actions and footwork at third, huge questions about the bat to ball ability 1:25 Babe Lincoln: Where are you on Vientos relative to the consensus? 1:25 Eric A Longenhagen: Acknowledge the physical projection is very interesting, not sold on him from a skills/tools perspective 1:26 Eric A Longenhagen: Miami taking Kentucky MIF Riley Mahan 1:26 Eric A Longenhagen: Very nice swing, bat control. Probably a 2B and might not have the power for that. 1:26 greg: Surprised Romero went as soon as he did? 1:26 Eric A Longenhagen: No, I had him mocked at 24. 1:27 Eric A Longenhagen: Royals take Iowa Western CC LHP Dan Tillo 1:28 Eric A Longenhagen: Big kid, 6’5, transferred from Kentucky. Throws hard when healthy, but hasn’t been. Slider draws mixed reviews. 1:28 Saul: Thoughts on Cooper going 62nd? Seems very injury-prone 1:28 Eric A Longenhagen: Right, but so were Mitch White, Walker Buehler, Jordan Sheffield…. 1:29 Eric A Longenhagen: Houston selects Tyler Ivey, RHP, Grayson CC (TX) 1:29 Eric A Longenhagen: Low-90s, chance for above average changeup 1:29 greg: Think there’s really anything to the “McKay looks pretty bummed” thing you were discussing last night? 1:29 Eric A Longenhagen: No 1:30 Zihuatenejo: Dodgers were supposedly all in on Bubba Thompson before drafting Kendall. Was Thompson a smokescreen, or do you think they were surprised to see Kendall available? 1:30 Eric A Longenhagen: The latter. Maybe not surprised, but very pleased. 1:30 Eric A Longenhagen: Yankees select Trevor Stephan. RHP from Arkansas will touch 96, average curveball that plays up due to cross body delivery. 1:31 Eric A Longenhagen: He was #88 on my top 100 1:31 Eric A Longenhagen: 1:32 Eric A Longenhagen: Mariners take Gonzaga’s Wyatt Mills 1:32 Eric A Longenhagen: Senior sign, probably to get Carlson done 1:32 Eric A Longenhagen: Low slot, fb/slider relief guy 1:33 Eric A Longenhagen: Cardinals first selection is Cal St Fullerton CF Scott Hurst 1:33 Eric A Longenhagen: High school performer who got to school because he didn’t have pro physicality 1:33 Eric A Longenhagen: great feel to hit, lacks power and power projection, needs to stay in CF to profile 1:34 Eric A Longenhagen: TIger select Joey Morgan, C, Washington 1:34 Eric A Longenhagen: Was #98 on my top 100 1:34 Eric A Longenhagen: Swing has natural loft, might hit for some power, receiving needs polish. 1:34 Eric A Longenhagen: 1:35 Jim: Why did the astros take Perez in 2nd round, was he an under slot guy because JB Bauaksuas was over slot? Struggling on that pick considering hes getting surgery tomorrow 1:35 Jim: Thoughts on Corbin Martin….was it a reach their? Him or Morgan Cooper from UT at that slot. 1:35 Eric A Longenhagen: Loved the Martin pickup, not a Joe Perez guy but he has his proponents and has some of this class’ bets power and fastbal and slider spin rates 1:35 Eric A Longenhagen: Seth Corry, LHP, Lone Peak HS (UT) is the Giants pick 1:36 Eric A Longenhagen: Will touch 96, mostly 90-93 with chance for above average curveball. Command is very erratic. 1:36 Eric A Longenhagen: Second four corners area guy for San Francisco 1:36 Guest: Where do you see Heliot Ramos winding up in the field? 1:36 Eric A Longenhagen: CF 1:36 Charlie: Luis Robert, Austin Beck or Jordon Adell; choose one. 1:36 Eric A Longenhagen: Robert 1:37 Eric A Longenhagen: Mets select, or I assume they’re selecting, Quinn Brodey from Stanford. Announced with a different name 1:38 Eric A Longenhagen: Weird swing, but moves the barrel around, strength driven power. Bench OF ceiling for me. 1:38 Brian: David Peterson > Justin Dunn at the time of the draft? 1:38 Eric A Longenhagen: Equal, would take Peterson on preference but i had them graded the same 1:39 Eric A Longenhagen: Orioles take Miek Baumann from Jacksonville. Second year in a row BAL takes a Jacksonville kid in third round. 1:39 Eric A Longenhagen: Long arm action, low-90s, above average breaking ball. Kept off 100 because of relief risk, but has the body to start if BAL wants to give it a try. 1:40 Eric A Longenhagen: Toronto selects Riley Adams, C, San Diego 1:40 Eric A Longenhagen: Huge kid, plus raw power, above average pure arm strength that plays down due to how slow he exits crouch. Swing and miss issues because of lever length. 1:40 Eric A Longenhagen: 1:40 Eric A Longenhagen: #56 on my board, ceiling is huge if he hits and catches. 1:41 Eric A Longenhagen: Dodgers take another potential C/Utility guy in Houston’s COnnor Wong 1:41 Eric A Longenhagen: #85 on my board, good bat to ball skills, runs well. 1:42 Eric A Longenhagen: Very much like Austin Barnes, Will Smith in that he’s a better athlete than typically found at C 1:42 Michael Bourn Supremacy: Thoughts on Faedo pick? Good value or betting on something which is no longer there? 1:42 Eric A Longenhagen: A calculated risk that I thought was defensible. I had him ranked at 13. 1:43 Eric A Longenhagen: Red Sox select Brett Netzer, 2B, UNC Charlotte 1:43 Eric A Longenhagen: Great hitting actions, moves the barrel around, good extension through contact. Not sure the power profiles at 2B, could be a bat-first bench player if he can add defensive versatility. 1:44 Eric A Longenhagen: Cleveland takes Jon Rodriguez, OF, Beltran Academy (PR) 1:45 Eric A Longenhagen: Purely an age/physical projection pick 1:45 Eric A Longenhagen: Doesn’t turn 18 until the fall, huge, long levered frame, needs weight. Needs reps. 1:45 Moltar: Taking a vacation next week? You’ve earned it 1:45 Eric A Longenhagen: Nope, after July 2 1:46 Eric A Longenhagen: Nick Raquet, LHP, William&Mary goes to Washington 1:46 Eric A Longenhagen: Lefty relief prospect with arm strength. 1:46 Eric A Longenhagen: Rangers pick Matt Whatley, C, Oral Roberts 1:46 Eric A Longenhagen: Jose Trevino also a C from Oral Roberts 1:47 Eric A Longenhagen: Love Whatley’s glove, plus glove plus arm, high effort swing with 40 bat speed, pull-heavy approach. 1:47 Eric A Longenhagen: #87 on my 100 1:47 Eric A Longenhagen: 1:48 Eric A Longenhagen: Another college pitcher for the Cubbies. Keegan Thompson, RHP, Auburn 1:48 Eric A Longenhagen: curveball/command guy right now, velo has waxed and waned throughout college career 1:48 Eric A Longenhagen: Has a tj on the resume 1:48 Nick: Hey Eric, what are your thoughts on the Angles drafting Adell when it seems like their farm needs more help with pitching? 1:49 Eric A Longenhagen: Best Player Available, regardless of position. Always 1:49 Eric A Longenhagen: And there are several young arms you haven’t heard about yet who will be in the AZL and Short Season ball and make some noise 1:49 Eric A Longenhagen: Minnesota picks LHP Charlie Barnes from Clemson to start 4th round 1:49 Eric A Longenhagen: #96 on my top 100, potential plus changeup. 1:50 Eric A Longenhagen: 87-90 for me in Louisville a few weeks ago. 1:50 Eric A Longenhagen: 1:50 Eric A Longenhagen: Reds select Cash Case, 2B, First Academy (FL) 1:51 Eric A Longenhagen: Strong-bodied 2B with interesting power/hit combination. Has had some injury issues 1:51 gump: Have you ever tried playing OOTP? I wonder whether people with encyclopedic knowledge of prospects find games like that underwhelming 1:51 Eric A Longenhagen: Nope. MLB Showdown. 1:52 Eric A Longenhagen: Padres select Sam Keating, RHP, Canterbury HS (FL) 1:53 Eric A Longenhagen: 89-91, might touch 93 or 94 on occasion, delivery has caused some relief concern 1:53 Chris: Would Andrew Moore make your top 100 right now? He is dealing in AAA and looks like he’s ready for a shot… 1:53 Eric A Longenhagen: Might warrant consideraton but more likely the kind of guy who gets mentioned, honorably. 1:54 Eric A Longenhagen: Rays select Drew Strotman, RHP, St. Mary’s 1:54 Eric A Longenhagen: Frame is still projectable, fastball has reached mid-90s, chance for above average slider. 1:55 John W: Where would Vlad Jr., hypothetically, have gone in this draft? 1:55 Eric A Longenhagen: top 5 1:55 Eric A Longenhagen: Probably top 3 for me 1:56 Eric A Longenhagen: Braves take Troy Bacon, RHP, Santa Fe CC 1:56 Eric A Longenhagen: Bacon was a SS prospect in high school, missed a lot of bats as Santa Fe’s closer 1:56 Ford: They both got late starts to the season, but Sean Murphy and Yairo Munoz both hitting well so far. Reason to be excited for either? 1:57 Eric A Longenhagen: Murphy, I like. I’m a Munoz skeptic. 1:57 Eric A Longenhagen: Oakland takes Will Toffey, 3B, Vanderbilt. Love his glove at 3B, patient hitter, chance for above average hit tool. Power not there for 3B, but might be able to move around the diamond or just hit well enough to play every day. 1:58 Eric A Longenhagen: More on Troy Bacon… 1:58 Eric A Longenhagen: 92-97, four pitch mix, athletic 6′, JC reliever, so not easy to scout. 1:58 MaineBall: Assuming there are any left, which college pitchers that are still available have the best chance to be starters? 1:59 Eric A Longenhagen: Seattle’s Tarik Skubal and Kennesaw’s Tony Dibrell are my guys 2:00 Eric A Longenhagen: Catching up: 2:01 Eric A Longenhagen: Dbacks: Harrison Francis, Chiles HS (TN) – max effort, arm strength lottrery ticket 2:01 Eric A Longenhagen: Phillies: Jake Scheiner, 3B, Houston: abv avg power, swing has some length 2:02 Eric A Longenhagen: MIL: Brendan Murphy: Thought he was getting to ASU, lefty with avg fastball and changeup, breaking ball plays up due to arm slot vs lefties. 2:03 Eric A Longenhagen: Angels: John Swanda, RHP, Roosevelt HS (IA) – 90-93, some curveball feel. Some scouts liked him as a bat. 2:04 Eric A Longenhagen: Rockies pick Pearson McMahan, St Jonnn’s river st college. 91-93, t95, deceptive, some slider feel 2:05 Eric A Longenhagen: White Sox Lincoln Henzman out of Louisville: Bullpen arm, t 95, no clear best secondary 2:05 Grant: Heard you say that H. Greene is such a good athlete the command projects… but also that he’s, what, a 35 runner? I realize these aren’t the exact same, but man he must just be a physical dude. 2:06 Eric A Longenhagen: 6-4, 205 at age 17. Hard to move all that mass. 2:06 Eric A Longenhagen: Pirates take Vanderbilt C Jason Delay. Senior sign, viable defender though. 2:06 Eric A Longenhagen: Pirates take a senior sign guy means they’re doing math to get all the prep picks done. 2:06 LegallyEagle: Does a typical prospect expect to develop better in a college program or a minor league system? 2:06 Eric A Longenhagen: Minors. Player dev is the priority in the minors, not so in college. 2:07 Eric A Longenhagen: Miami takes Stanford RHP Colton Hock. 93-96, plus curveball. Pure relief look. Potential setup man. 2:07 Matt: Any idea why the MLB.com tracker isn’t updating? 2:08 Eric A Longenhagen: …no? 2:08 JP: MLB network guys comped every pick to all-stars and HOFers 2:08 Eric A Longenhagen: I doubt Mayo and Callis did that. The studio guys need to keep the casual fan interested with stuff like that. We don’t need to do that here because you’re all baseball freaks, it’s why you’re here. 2:08 Eric A Longenhagen: Royals take Lipscomb OF Mike Gigliotti. 2:09 Eric A Longenhagen: 92 on my top 100. plus run, plays CF, 40 bat speed. Patient, almost excessively. but of a tweener 2:10 Eric A Longenhagen: Houston takes Peter Solomon, RHP, Notre Dame 2:10 Eric A Longenhagen: 92-94, t96, multiple pitches, command probably relegates him to the bullpen 2:10 Adam: Did Mason House fall to the 4th round due to signability? 2:10 Eric A Longenhagen: No, due to lack of track record. 2:12 Eric A Longenhagen: Yankees take Canaan Smith, announced as a RF. Athletic, tradtional RF profile with power and arm strength. Also patient for a HS bat. 2:13 Eric A Longenhagen: Mariners take Seth Elledge, RHP, Dallas Baptist 2:13 Eric A Longenhagen: He throws hard, obviously, like everyone from DBU. 93-95 with sink, fringe slider. 2:13 Eric A Longenhagen: Cardinals draft Kramer Robertson, 2B, LSU 2:14 Eric A Longenhagen: Gamer/grinder type. Tools fringey across the board. 2:14 Noah: Are you higher on Bubba Thompson or Jeren Kendall? 2:14 Eric A Longenhagen: I have a top 100: http://www.fangraphs.com/scoutboard.aspx?draft=2017mlb&type=0&pos=all 2:15 Bert Campaneris: Michael Baumann got drafted. Ben Lindbergh is still available. 2:15 Eric A Longenhagen: Makeup issues. 2:15 Eric A Longenhagen: Tiger take Gio Arrierra, RHP, Palm Beach JC 2:16 Eric A Longenhagen: 90-93, chance for above average curve, probable reliever 2:16 Jim: Carter Kieboom or Bo Bichette — who would you rather own from a fantasy perspective? 2:16 Eric A Longenhagen: Depends on your fantasy. 2:17 Eric A Longenhagen: Love Garrett Cave here for SF 2:17 Eric A Longenhagen: Cave has one of the quickest arms in the draft, sitting 91-95 and touching 97 with a hard, mid-80s slider, a shapely looping curveball and a firm changeup. He’s likely a reliever but has a non-zero chance to start if he can harness his command and it makes sense to develop him as a starter so his secondaries get more reps. Even in relief (where his heater could play up) he might have several weapons and pitch in the back of a bullpen. 2:17 Eric A Longenhagen: 63 on my board 2:18 Eric A Longenhagen: Mets take Tony Dibrell, RHP, Kennesaw St 2:18 Eric A Longenhagen: Dibrell’s stuff has been inconsistent this spring but at times he has been up to 96 with a plus changeup. At others he’s sitting 88-92 with no command, so scouts’ opinions of him are dictated by when they’ve seen him. Four pitch mix. 2:18 Frenchie: Thoughts on Terriez Fuller ? 2:18 Eric A Longenhagen: Huge raw power, some of the best in the class. Not much else going on right now, a player dev project. 2:19 Eric A Longenhagen: BAL takes Jack Conlon, RHP, Sugarland TX 2:19 Eric A Longenhagen: sinking low-90s fastball, relief body and delivery for me 2:19 Jeremy: About your comment on the Braves’ pick: what do you mean about pitchers’ stuff extrapolation? 2:20 Eric A Longenhagen: If a guy’s stuff ticks up late, ATL tends to think it’s a sign of things to come while others are more apt to acknowledge it could be a short-lived blip. 2:21 Eric A Longenhagen: Blue Jays take Kevan Smith, SS, Maryland. Fringe UT profile for me. 2:21 Eric: Thoughts on Anthony Jimenez , Mariners CF prospect? 2:21 Eric A Longenhagen: Physical specimen, baseball skills are a bit raw, old for the level. Not a NP but certainly one whose performance I’m skeptical of at this point. 2:22 Eric A Longenhagen: Dodgers take James Marinan, RHP, Park Vista HS (FL) 2:22 Eric A Longenhagen: #52 o nmy board. The strong-bodied Marinan has experienced an uptick in velocity over the last six months and gone from sitting in the upper-80s to sitting 91-94 and touching 96. While his amorphous breaking ball lacks definition, there’s some feel for spin there and most scouts think at maturity it will be an average or better slider. Marinan generates good extension and has a great arm action that might portend more velocity and a better changeup. 2:22 Jonathan: When teams that are highly ranked on analysts’ boards slip several rounds in the actual draft without even turning into major overslot signings, which would you consider more likely: A) the analysts were all a bit off on said player, or B) the teams were all a bit off on said player. 2:23 Eric A Longenhagen: C) the difference between prospect #300 on my board and #100 on my board is smaller than people think and it’s not uncommon for teams to have them flipped for totally reasonable evaluation differences. 2:23 Eric A Longenhagen: Red Sox take Jake Thompson, RHP, Oregon St 2:24 Eric A Longenhagen: Good arm strength, avg slider, has had command issues throughout career 2:24 Eric A Longenhagen: Cleveland takes Ernie Clement, 2B, UVA 2:25 Eric A Longenhagen: Speedy little INF who some preferred in CF as his hands and arm are not sure bets for the INF. Some bat to ball ability. Utility profile. 2:25 Drew: Do you have most of this stuff in your head or are you Control+F on all these names after the top 50-100? 2:25 Eric A Longenhagen: It’s a mix. Guys I’ve seen I have better recall than guys I’ve just sourced on. 2:26 Eric A Longenhagen: Natoinals take Cole Freeman, 2B, LSU 2:26 Eric A Longenhagen: senior sign 2:26 Eric A Longenhagen: speed, contact 2:26 Chris: Why haven’t we seen Skoug drafted yet? I know I’m scouting the stat line, but he seems to have a lot of power for a catcher 2:26 Eric A Longenhagen: Yes, but lots of swing and miss and prob not a catcher 2:26 Erica: Do you prefer this draft system withe caps and bonus pools, or the old system? Seems like the players got screwed. 2:27 Eric A Longenhagen: I’s prefer no draft at all. So, I pref the old system where the kids were paid better. 2:27 Eric A Longenhagen: Rangers select Ryan Dease, projectable righty, upper-80s with chance for more 2:28 Eric: Any idea when Morejon will start pitching in minor league games? And what at level? 2:28 Eric A Longenhagen: Pretty sure SD’s short season roster has him on it. 2:28 Drew: All this talk about the Cape, how do players end up playing there? 2:28 Eric A Longenhagen: Cape teams basically scout and invite rising college juniors 2:29 Eric A Longenhagen: Erich Uelman, Cal Poly, goes to Cubs. RHP 90-94, avg slider, throws strikes. 2:29 Babe Lincoln: Will you tell us the first time someone who you have no idea who he is gets drafted? 2:29 Eric A Longenhagen: It was Bacon. 2:30 Eric A Longenhagen: Twins take Chipola 3B Andrew Bechtold. Above average bat speed, could be bat-first utility guy. 2:31 Babe Lincoln: Cave your highest probable-reliever? 2:31 Eric A Longenhagen: Nate Pearson 2:32 Eric A Longenhagen: Reds take Mac Sceroler, 91-93, fringe curve, chance for above avg changeup. 2:33 Eric A Longenhagen: 2:33 Eric A Longenhagen: ^Padres just took Homza, good frame, 2B for me, chance to hit enough to play there. Nice pick. 2:33 Noah: When you talk about picking the best player available how do you weigh the difference between a volatile high upside player and a safer player with lower ceiling and high floor with the same FV? 2:34 Eric A Longenhagen: That’s where more gut//subjectivity enters the equation. 2:35 Eric A Longenhagen: Braves took Josh Fleming from Webster. 0.67 ERA and 0.71 WHIP this year. 2:35 Eric A Longenhagen: Not Braves, Rays 2:36 Drew: At what point in the draft do you just throw your hands up and start listening/learning like the rest of us? 2:36 Eric A Longenhagen: When it’s time to start writing about what happened today. 2:36 Eric A Longenhagen: Which will be soon 2:37 Eric A Longenhagen: A’s take Santi Sanchez, C, Int’l Academy (PR) 2:37 Eric A Longenhagen: Elite arm strength, erratic approach, mature bosy 2:37 Eric A Longenhagen: body* 2:38 Rick C: Anything on Bruce Zimmerman? 2:38 Eric A Longenhagen: Senior sign 2:38 Eric A Longenhagen: Dbacks take Buddy Kennedy from Millville HS (NJ) 2:39 Eric A Longenhagen: Mature body, noisy swing, some feel for contact 2:39 Matt: Michael Chavis has 17 home runs and is leading the Carolina league in BA. Is he a prospect again? 2:39 Eric A Longenhagen: Yes, was hurt last year and didn’t tell anyone. 2:40 Eric A Longenhagen: Phillies take Ethan Lindow. Physically projectable, stuff backed up late in the spring. Has been up to 92 with some breaking ball and changeup feel. Interetsing buy-low prospect. 2:40 Tim: Does marinan have #2 upside? 2:41 Eric A Longenhagen: That’s a 5 WAR pitcher so, no. 2:41 Eric A Longenhagen: Brewers take NJ HS 3B Nick Egnatuk. 2:41 Eric A Longenhagen: Good body, great defensive 3B, bat needs an overhaul 2:42 Eric A Longenhagen: Egnatuk sounds the most like a Pokemon of any prospect in this year’s draft 2:42 KP: How good is Bo Bichette really? 2:42 Eric A Longenhagen: His hitting traits are very special 2:43 Eric A Longenhagen: Angels take Joe Booker. 87-89, t92. Vertical arm slot, good arm action, some curveball feel. 2:43 Alex: Who’s the highest remaining undrafted player from your board? Anyone in the top 100? 2:43 Eric A Longenhagen: I think it’s Jermiah Estrada? He might be going to school. 2:44 Eric A Longenhagen: Rockies take another likely reliever. 90-93, avg slider. Nick Kennedy, LHP, Texas. 2:44 Jim: should we assume all HS players drafted will spend most of the season in GCL / AZL . Any you expect to go straight to short season? 2:45 Eric A Longenhagen: I would, yes. 2:46 Eric A Longenhagen: White Sox take Tyler Johnson, RHP, South Carolina. Relief-only but touches 99, sits 93-97, has had health issues. 2:46 Sonny: What is Brent Rooker’s ‘elderly ascendancy’ mean? 2:46 Eric A Longenhagen: He’s old for the class but got much better this season 2:47 Eric A Longenhagen: Pirates take St Joe’s C Deon Stafford. Was seen as best northeast college hitter entering the spring, had some issues throwing and with contact rate this year. Has power, good athlete, chance to catch. 2:47 StL Steve: Has there ever been a player who was drafted and immediately became the number 1 prospect in baseball with out even playing a minor league game? If not, who was closest? 2:47 Eric A Longenhagen: Harper? 2:48 Eric A Longenhagen: Miami takes Ryan Lillie. Converted catcher, will touch 97. 2:48 Eric A Longenhagen: out of UC Riverside 2:49 Eric A Longenhagen: Kansas City takes Charlie Neuweiler, RHP, McClancy HS (NY) 2:50 Eric A Longenhagen: Upper-80s, knucklecurveball projects to average, perhaps above. 2:50 Eric A Longenhagen: Northeast arm and all that entails. 2:51 Eric A Longenhagen: Astros take Nate Perry, C, Bassett HS (VA) 2:52 Eric A Longenhagen: Not a lock to stay at C, has some pull power, body has some projection 2:52 Eric A Longenhagen: Yankees take Glen Otto, RHP, Rice. Surprise, he’s had injury issues. 90-93 as a starter, harder than that out of the bullpen, chance for above average curveball. Obviuosly has some injury concerns. 2:53 Eric A Longenhagen: Mariners take Long Beach C Dave Banuelos 2:54 Eric A Longenhagen: Plus arm, good receiver, maybe hits enough to be a low-end regular. More of a glove-first backup. 2:54 Nick: Who, if anybody, is virtually a lock to stay at catcher in this class? Melendez? 2:55 Eric A Longenhagen: Yup, Whatley and Banuelos. 2:55 Noah: Does baseball have a pace of play issue (and by that I mean day 1 of the draft) 2:55 Eric A Longenhagen: Nah, people have attention span issues. 2:57 Eric A Longenhagen: Tigers take Sam McMillan, just a solid developmental catching prospect who has a better than 50/50 chance to stay back there. 2:58 Eric A Longenhagen: Jason Bahr, UCF, RHP goes to the Giants. Huge college performer in relief role, stuff doesn’t look great but might have some deception/extensnion elements helping things play up 3:00 Eric A Longenhagen: Catching up: 3:00 Eric A Longenhagen: StL: Zach Kirtley, 2B, St Mary’s: Good bat to ball skills, projectable power 3:01 Eric A Longenhagen: NYM: Matt Winaker, 1B, Stanford: College performer wit hmore walks than K’s, 1B-only, bat not likely explosive enough for that profile 3:02 Eric A Longenhagen: BAL: Lamar Sparks, OF, Seven Lake: Projectable body, very raw. 3:02 Eric A Longenhagen: TOR: Cullen Large: 2B-only, good bat to ball skills. 3:03 Eric A Longenhagen: LAD: Riley Otteson, RHP, Utah – 93-96, chance for 55 slider. Pure relief, old for class due to Mormon mission. 3:03 Mike: Tristan Beck getting his name called any time soon? 3:03 Eric A Longenhagen: People thought he had a deal in place, it’s possible he simply did not. 3:04 Eric A Longenhagen: Red Sox take RHP Alex Scherff. 3:04 Eric A Longenhagen: Throws hard, big spin rates, old for the high school class, great body, poor command. 3:05 Eric A Longenhagen: No. 66 on my board 3:05 Eric A Longenhagen: Cleveland takes Austin Wade, OF, TCU 3:06 Eric A Longenhagen: Quintessential TCU bat, good approach, hit tool, lacks power. 3:06 Dr Evil: Has your perception of Dustin Fowler changed at all from your preseason writeups? Does he have more power upside than previously thought? 3:06 Eric A Longenhagen: No, I was the high guy on Fowler so this was expected. 3:07 Eric A Longenhagen: Nationals take Brigham Hill, RHP, Texas A&M. Cistulli loves him. Plus changeup, fringe fastball velo. 97 on my top 100 because I think the changeup is going to miss bats. 3:08 Eric A Longenhagen: Rangers take Jake Latz, who has a long injury history. Has been low-90s with avg secondaries in bullpens. 3:08 Drew: Any chance Beck goes back to school if he falls too far? 3:09 Eric A Longenhagen: Industry sources I’m talking to think so. 3:09 dominikk85: I like keston hiura but is there enough power especially if he cant play second? Couldn’t he become a good hit 15 hr DH like billy butler (more athletic of course) if second doesn’t work? 3:09 Eric A Longenhagen: There’s more power in there than that. 3:09 Pine Marten: With only a couple of minutes between picks, are teams scrambling every two minutes or do they have so many players ranked they can just pick the highest guy left? 3:09 Eric A Longenhagen: The latter. Their staffs have been prepping for this for literally a year. 3:10 Eric A Longenhagen: Cubs take speedy Puerto Rican CF Nelson Velasquez to end the round 3:11 Eric A Longenhagen: Okay folks, I’m calling it a chat. Check the site for analysis on Day 2 tomorrow.