Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat 5/30

12:02

Eric A Longenhagen: Good noon from Catasauqua, PA. Here is a link to today’s notes with notes from my look at Brendan McKay and more: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/daily-prospect-notes-530/

12:02

Ira: Can we expect a write up on Luis Robert? What’s your scouting report on him?

12:03

Eric A Longenhagen: Once he starts playing actual games, sure. I wrote him up last summer when I saw him and in the hardball times annual over the winter. He’s a very good prospect, fits somewhere in the middle of a top 100 based on what I’ve seen an the reports I’ve gotten.

12:03

J: Most upside in this year’s draft? Highest floor?

12:04

Eric A Longenhagen: Obviously this question requires certain assumptions, including me assuming you know those assumptions. But with that in mind: Greene has the most upside, McKay has the highest floor.

12:04

Greg: Any new draft buzz in the top 5?

12:05

Eric A Longenhagen: The Reds were like 6 or 7 deep at the ACC tournament and, while Louisville is obviously close to Cincinnati, I think it’s a sign they’re really on McKay.

12:05

Brian: The Phillies seem to have some of their best-performing prospects at positions where they have at least a decent young option in Majors (Alfaro/Rupp, Hoskins/Joseph). How do you see those logjams playing out?

12:07

Eric A Longenhagen: These things have a tendency to sort themselves out. It isn’t like Hoskins has totally solved and dominated Triple-A for multiple seasons. It has been two months. Rupp won’t be in Alfaro’s way when the time comes and the ToJo/Hoskins thing will probably work itself out at some point, be it injury, trade. No reason to jump to any sort of decisions there.

12:07

Larry: It seems like most questions with Royce Lewis are defensive ones. Are there concerns about his any part of his offense?

12:08

Eric A Longenhagen: Not really. He has great feel to hit, will likely grow into game power. And while I doubt very much he’s a long term shortstop, center field is still a premium spot.

12:08

Philip: How many of the draft prospects do you view as top 50 prospects right now? Is it just Greene or Wright or is Gore/Lewis/McKay in mix as well or…?

12:08

Eric A Longenhagen: The top 5 are 55 FVs or better.

12:08

Pirates Reliever Prospects: What do you think about the FV of Edgar Santana and Dovydas Neverauskas? Has your evaluation of Santana changed from your preseason report?

12:09

Eric A Longenhagen: Relievers, unless they’re utterly dominant, are almost always 40s. And not just because their roles/value are limited but because they’re volatile performers. Still have 40s on both of those guys.

12:09

Keefths: Can you explain why there is so much hype recently around Jesus Sanchez his OBP is good but not amazing …

12:10

Eric A Longenhagen: He has monster physical tools and is playing well as a teenager in full season ball.

12:10

Rob: Is Jake Rogers suddenly a good hitter now? I realize he’s still only in A ball, but that’s an exciting development for me as a Stros fan

12:11

Eric A Longenhagen: I really like Rogers and think he might hit for enough pop to play every day but I don’t expect this current rate to continue.

12:11

Paul: Are you doing any mock drafts?

12:11

Eric A Longenhagen: Yup, a week before and the day of.

12:11

Manny Being Manny: Any idea when, if at all, the Mets will finally bring up Rosario?

12:11

Eric A Longenhagen: Nope

12:11

Skip: Has Brandon Lowe done anything to improve his stock? I’ve seen him four times in the last month and he seems like a line drive machine.

12:12

Eric A Longenhagen: Yes. He’s hitting very well, much better than last year.

12:12

Ben: Think Derek Fisher can become anything more than an average regular?

12:13

Eric A Longenhagen: Certainly has the tools to be more than an average everyday player but they don’t always show up in games and he’s a bit of a defensive liability, which the stat sheet doesn’t show you.

12:13

Jack: Who are you most excited to watch play this year that still hasn’t been assigned? Delvin Perez, Kevin Maitan, anybody else I’m forgetting?

12:13

Eric A Longenhagen: Kyle Lewis

12:13

Jonathan: The sortable draft board is awesome, but it’s missing FVs right now. First question: will those be added at some point? Second question: how many 55 FV guys are on the board? (I’m assuming there aren’t any 60s but maybe that’s dumb of me.)

12:14

Eric A Longenhagen: Yup, as I said in the companion piece, the FVs will be added and the board will be updated and expanded as we approach the draft. Working on that right now, actually. The top 5 are 55s and 60s.

12:14

Ted: I watched Austin Beck’s videos for the first time today. Am I wrong for being concerned about his swing and miss when he swings so hard?

12:15

Eric A Longenhagen: Nope, you’re on it. Scouts are concerned about the swing and miss, too. In fact, he was a guy I was told, by multiple sources, to move down the board after it went live. Huge tools, though. Still think he goes top 12 picks.

12:16

Tim: Good call on Shed Long – over 360 PAs in the FSL seems to suggest the kid can hit – and he’s outhitting Senzel too. Are others coming around to the idea of him as at least an avg-regular or are his peripherals still a bit disconcerting?

12:17

Eric A Longenhagen: Thanks. Yeah, Long is hitting. There’s still some dissent, but there is for practically every prospect. Even guys like Moncada and Bellinger don’t generate universal agreement. That’s part of why this job is interesting.

12:17

Jason: I see Brent Rooker didn’t make your top 50 draft guys on your sort board. Do you not believe in the bat or does his age kind of dampen his stock?

12:18

Eric A Longenhagen: Tough defensive profile as he’s likely 1B-only and he isn’t very good there. But yeah, those numbers are freaskish. I considered him for the 50. He’ll be on the 100, probably somewhere in the 60s or 70s.

12:18

Mike: Is there any reason for Brendan Rodgers to still be in Lancaster? Seems like he’s ready for the challenge of AA.

12:18

Eric A Longenhagen: Spoke with a scout over the weekend who didn’t like what he saw out of him there. Looks heavy footed, surviving on instinct and strength on both sides of the ball.

12:19

Eric A Longenhagen: See what I mean? You can’t get a consensus on anyone.

12:19

Eric A Longenhagen: I still really like Rodgers, think he’s a top 20 prospect.

12:19

JP: Have you heard or seen anything about Victor Caratini’s defense at catcher? Has been on fire all season at the plate.

12:20

Eric A Longenhagen: Saw him for six weeks last fall and it isn’t good but he rakes and some clubs are more willing to put up with 40 defense back there some of the time if it means getting that bat into a lineup. Caratini is the type of player who needs to be on an AL club.

12:21

old timer: Aaron Whitefield – good numbers last year and again this year but I never see him on any prospect lists; is that because he’s not a real prospect?

12:21

Eric A Longenhagen: I saw Whitefield last fall, I think. Let me check my notes. He never came up as I did the Twins list…hold on…..

12:23

Eric A Longenhagen: Okay yeah, slight frame, kind of a funky, unique set-up but has some bat control, looked to me like he tracked pitches well. Profile depends on him staying in CF and I didn’t get a good enough look, in person, to tell whether or not he’d stay there.

12:23

Eric A Longenhagen: I’ll ask around this week. Remind me on the Twitter or in next week’s chat and I’ll have more

12:23

SAL guy: Am I crazy for liking Pache over Leody? Is this a defensible position?

12:24

Eric A Longenhagen: Not crazy but I’d still take Leodys.

12:24

John: Have you had a chance to see Corey Ray? Striking out far too much, but improving since beginning of season.

12:24

Eric A Longenhagen: I have and he was one of the best prospects I saw all spring. Think he’ll be fine.

12:24

Jon: Any thoughts on who the Brewers may select at #9?

12:24

Eric A Longenhagen: Have heard them with Beck.

12:25

Tom: Does kyle wright have a chance to be a TOR arm?

12:25

Eric A Longenhagen: Yup. Shot to be a #2 for me.

12:25

Kevin: I hear that Buehler will be limited to around 100 innings this season. What’s a reasonable jump in innings next season? 150?

12:25

Eric A Longenhagen: 150 might be a little aggressive. 130?

12:26

Dudley: How much has Dustin Fowler’s stock improved in the early going? Are you a believer?

12:26

Eric A Longenhagen: About the same for me but I had him on the top 100, not sure if anyone else did. Average everyday player for me.

12:26

Rob M : Where does Triston McKenzie appear on Top 100 lists next spring?

12:26

Eric A Longenhagen: Probably in the 30s.

12:27

Erik: My only local baseball team is a Northwoods League team. Do you know anything about that league, or is the Cape Cod league the only college summer league anyone scouts? Any prospects I should try to see this summer when they come through town?

12:27

Eric A Longenhagen: Scouts see the Northwoods League and it’s good baseball but I haven’t looked at the rosters yet to flag anyone of interest.

12:28

Chris S: Jose Marmalejos of the Washington Nationals is batting 367 and even though isnt hitting for too much power is swing seems to have that effortless path through the zone. Your thoughts on him Eric? Do you believe the Nationals could use him in a worthwhile trade this summer as he is blocked by Ryan Zimmerman?

12:28

Eric A Longenhagen: Wrote about him last week: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/daily-prospect-notes-525/

12:28

Eric A Longenhagen: Strikes me as a guy teams will try to get on a minor league deal, but there are clubs who scout the upper levels aggressively looking for marginal improvements on the big roster.

12:29

Eric A Longenhagen: the teams I know that do that all have 1B firmly entrenched, though.

12:29

Eric A Longenhagen: Marmolejos Marmolejos Marmolejos.

12:29

Jason: In an alternative world,everything is the same except for Bukauskas being 6’5. Would he be the top draft prospect then?

12:30

Eric A Longenhagen: Maybe? Some teams definitely care that he’s 6′. I think he does enough to mitigate it that I don’t care and there are several teams picking in the top 10 who do as well.

12:31

Eric A Longenhagen: And there’s some scientific evidence that the idea that being large means it’s easier to stay healthy, as far as baseball is concerned, is just false.

12:31

Eric A Longenhagen: Because the formula for torque includes distance from the fulcrum, bigger pitchers have longer forearms, etc, etc.

12:32

Chips Winston: With his new swing mechanics & improved fly ball profile, could Scott Kingery be a 20 HR major leaguer one day?

12:33

Eric A Longenhagen: Haven’t seen him yet, don’t know if anything is different. Tomorrow. And thankfully I saw him like 12 times in college and again last fall so I have some visual context.

12:33

TimmyBoy: What sort of player have the Mariners got in Brayan Hernandez?

12:33

Eric A Longenhagen: Scouts in AZ would tell you he isn’t one and I have to say I agree.

12:33

Ollie: Heliot Ramos,OF or Jacob Pearson,OF in the upcoming rookie draft Eric?

12:34

Eric A Longenhagen: Ramos. Tools are deafening. He’s as high-risk as they come, though.

12:34

Felix: What’s Wladimir Galindos upside? He’s been the standout man in Low A for the Cubs

12:35

Eric A Longenhagen: Has been teetering on that 1B/3B seesaw for the last few years. Body has been better this year and scouts are still hopeful there’s a chance he stays there. If he does he could be an everyday guy because of the power. If not, he might not make enough contact to profile at 1B.

12:35

Guest: I believe you were very high on Yadier Alvarez before the season. Why was that and has anything so far this year changed your opinion? Thanks

12:37

Eric A Longenhagen: I was high on him because he throws 95+ with zero effort, he had some breaking ball feel and was throwing strikes consistently by the end of the year. He reported out of shape this year.

12:37

Dan: Hi Eric – thoughts on Jon Duplantier changing given his recent performance?

12:38

Eric A Longenhagen: His stock was up this spring when he was sitting mid-90s with a 6 slider and he’s cementing it by staying healthy, which he didn’t do in college. Blowing away low-a as a college arm isn’t what’s moving the needle.

12:39

Tim: Do you think any of Jeremiah Estrada, Garrett Mitchell, or Hagen danner forego the draft and go to UCLA?

12:39

Eric A Longenhagen: Others seem to be off Estrada (I am not, still love that little guy) so maybe there’s a chance he matriculates. But I haven’t heard anything on signability for any of those three.

12:40

Sean: Did you ever envisage Allen Cordoba producing like this on this level at a ripe age of 21 Eric?

12:40

Eric A Longenhagen: I don’t think anyone anticipated he hit this well after jumping from short season ball.

12:41

Eli : How does Baz compare to Forrest Whitley? What are the odds the Astros can get them both?

12:43

Eric A Longenhagen: Whitley had much better command as a draft prospect. I think there’s a chance Baz gets that far, but a few teams ahead of Houston might really need to reach for college players to make it happen.

12:43

Moltar: Is Logan Warmoth the highest grade name in the draft? Dude’s last name sounds like a pokemon

12:45

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s probably up there but I’ll take Garrett Cave, Drew Swift (who is a 7 runner), Cash Case, Hans Crouse…and probably more ahead of him.

12:45

Eric A Longenhagen: Brewer Hicklen

12:45

Eric A Longenhagen: that might be #1

12:46

TKDC: Do you have any general rules about whether guys should go to college or not? Like “outside the first two rounds” or something like that?

12:46

Eric A Longenhagen: Nah, I’ve tried to come up with heuristics for that in the past but each player/family situation is so unique, and often the driving factor, that it was largely useless.

12:46

liam: who you got Eric, Carlos Rincon or Ibandel Isabel, both offensive minded hitters who either hit the ball to the moon or swing through their shoes on a daily basis

12:46

Eric A Longenhagen: Give me RIncon.

12:47

Hank: What is soonest we could see Vlad Jr. in the majors? He’s so young, but he’s soooo good.

12:47

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s there before he’s allowed to drink.

12:47

Grant: A.J Puk has been mowing down hitters in high-A, does he stay down there all/most of the year or start getting moved more aggressively?

12:47

Eric A Longenhagen: Wish he’d throw more strikes but yeah, you kind of have to push him if he’s missing this many bats.

12:47

Asdrubal: Who was that pitcher you saw in EST that you liked better than Morejon? Think he could make the top 100 this year?

12:48

Eric A Longenhagen: Chris Rodriguez and, if he stays healthy, I do.

12:48

Troutmageddon: Could the most loaded team in the minors take a series against the Trout-less Angels right now? I know the answer is no, but come on.

12:48

Eric A Longenhagen: I might have just seen the team with the best combination of talent/polish over the weekend in Lehigh Valley and no, they couldn’t beat Anaheim.

12:48

Stuafoo: Did you say recently that a stop to see Kyle Lewis was in your near future? How’s he looking on his way back from injury?

12:49

Eric A Longenhagen: Sounds like he’s getting underway this week but I’m in the northeast until Friday and then in Fayetteville for the weekend so I won’t get a look for a while yet.

12:49

Chris S: Why do i dislike Cody Bellinger’s swing? I am no scout of course but something to me seems hitch-y or there is an additional mechanic my untrained eye is seeing. Not that it matters of course, he is raking.

12:50

Eric A Longenhagen: Do you hate pleasure and fun? My wife loves Bellinger’s swing. “Swoosh! Swoosh!”

12:50

Josh: Could Tyler Wade start at SS right now as a roughly league average SS? Doesn’t it make more sense for the Yanks to trade him then as they have plenty of upper level MI depth?

12:52

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s a high-end UT guy for me, could be a low-end every day player. They’re competing and it’s not had to envision an injury scenario where he’s pressed into duty so no, I’d hold onto him.

12:52

Nick: Who are some new 2017 draft names sneaking into first round consideration? Allen, Sauer, & Thompson seem to be a few.

12:53

Eric A Longenhagen: Nate Pearson is moving up my board after throwing as hard as he did this week in a bullpen. Even if he’s a relief-only guy, pitchers with that kind of stuff go in round 1.

12:53

Eric A Longenhagen: If you think Chris Seise stays at short I could see him in rd 1.

12:54

Accudart: Carter Kieboom’s stock risen much in your eyes. Realistic chance of being top 10 SS?

12:54

Eric A Longenhagen: It has. Not sure off the top of my head how he lines up with everyone else in baseball, though.

12:55

Hardly Working: Do you ever (objectively) rate a prospect as a 40FV or so, but secretly, in your heart of hearts, believe that he’ll be a good/great player?

12:55

Eric A Longenhagen: Oh yeah, all the time.

12:55

Eric A Longenhagen: And 40 FVs are good prospects, btw.

12:55

Adam: Is the calling card for Mackenzie Gore more about floor than ceiling?

12:56

Eric A Longenhagen: I’d say it’s about polish and command which most interpret as floor.

12:56

Andy: I feel like the White Sox are in a weird spot at No. 11 in the draft. I doubt the Luis Robert signing makes any impact on who they draft, but it’s nice to know there’s another top position player prospect in the system if they take BPA who might be Faedo. What are the chances Haseley falls in their laps?

12:56

Eric A Longenhagen: I don’t think he gets that far but I bet they’d be interested if he did.

12:56

Q-Ball: The next country that could be a hotbed of international talent is ___________.

12:57

Eric A Longenhagen: Brazil

12:57

Jason Wojnar: Who are some guys that started the year outside the top 75 prospects that have made he biggest leap so far?

12:57

Eric A Longenhagen: Hmmm, Tyler Mahle, Jack Flaherty, Jesus Sanchez.

12:58

Sad Sack: Tatis Jr. is looking like the stud the Padres need. Any chance he stays at SS? If so, this is a top 20 prospect right?

12:58

Eric A Longenhagen: 3B for me but a potential elite defender there.

12:58

Sandy Kazmir: While it looks like Willy Adames will need the full year in Durham it is difficult to not be impressed with the adjustments made by Jake Bauers so far. Do you think we’ll see him up this year?

12:59

Eric A Longenhagen: Only if TB falls out of contention or their situation at 1B merits a change to serve the big club immediately. That team sees a window in that division and I do, too.

12:59

Q-Ball: Over the last 5 years, what are the highest floor draft prospects you can remember?

12:59

Eric A Longenhagen: Danny Hultzen!

12:59

Eric A Longenhagen: No, hold on a sec so I can ponder that one.

1:00

Eric A Longenhagen: And just baseball, I assume.

1:01

Eric A Longenhagen: Probably Colin Moran, Reese McGuire, Carlos Rodon, Nick Gordon, maybe Conforto, Swanson and Bregman

1:02

Will Graham : Thoughts on AJ Alexy?

1:02

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s a dude. Low-90s, some slider feel, projection on the body and on the repertoire because he’s a northeast kid.

1:02

Rick: What do you know about Adam Hall? There doesn’t seem to be any top end Canadian Talent in this year’s draft.

1:04

Eric A Longenhagen: Runs well, some think he stays at SS. I’m a Cooper Davis and Jason Willow fan, personally.

1:04

Erik: Wrong type of prospects, but if your Philly roots mean you’re a Sixers fan, who do you want them drafting this year at number 3?

1:05

Eric A Longenhagen: Josh Jackson if he’s there.

1:05

Eric A Longenhagen: Never Ball.

1:05

Ed: What are your thoughts on Clemson SS Logan Davidson? I know he’s still a few years out, but he had a really impressive freshman year at Clemson.

1:05

Eric A Longenhagen: Agreed. Liked what I saw from him last weekend, but of course we’re far away from his draft year at this point.

1:05

HS Arms: Is Greene that much more polished than a Gore? Seems like Gore’s secondary offerings are much better from reports.

1:07

Eric A Longenhagen: I agree but a lot of scouts (and I fall into this category too, save for maybe a few guys like Stroman and Mike Leake) have never seen an athlete like Greene on the mound and he arguably has elite fastball and command projection because he repeats so well. He just doesn’t have a great breaking ball yet. Gore’s changeup is already awesome.

1:07

Jay: It seems like Evan White and Pavin Smith (both college 1B) are going to be 1st round picks this year. Forgive the simplicity of my question, but aren’t college 1B usually pretty bad investments that early in the draft overall or provide low value? Also where does that leave Brent Rooker, who’s having a better year in a great conference as well (despite age, poor Cape Cod performance in past)?

1:08

Eric A Longenhagen: They are. White is one of my favorite prospects in this draft but I’m probably not drafting him until late in the first. Smith will go to a team that prioritizes numbers.

1:09

Eric A Longenhagen: And as far as Rooker is concerned, Teddy Cahill wrote a great piece on Rooker making changes that have unlocked better results (which you should all check out, Teddy is good) so there’s some evidence the changes (which were post-Cape) are real

1:10

Torn ACL UCL MCL PCL TCL: Hey Eric, love the chat! Is Honeywell close at all? He’s looked pretty good this year.

1:10

Eric A Longenhagen: I think he is one stuff/pitchability but he’s not on the 40 man and they have other arms who are viable big league contributors who are and, I think, first in line.

1:10

Eric A Longenhagen: But again, if he’s the best guy, he should get a shot.

1:11

Guest: Just moved down to Charleston. Any guys on the Riverdogs (or guys from other teams in the league) I should go see? I know about Rutherford, but any others come to mind?

1:11

Eric A Longenhagen: I’d cross reference the Yankees list with the roster to find your targets: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/top-33-prospects-new-york-yankees/

1:13

Mock Draft: All 40 rounds?

1:13

Eric A Longenhagen: I wonder if you could even do all 40 rounds in a day, like sit here and plug that many names into a document.

1:13

Rich O: Can you see a situation where the Yankees get a top talent in this year’s draft because of signability issues, like last year with Rutherford?

1:14

Eric A Longenhagen: It wasn’t so much true signability issues with Rutherford as it was other teams trying to move him back to their 2nd picks. I think it’s less likely to happen now that bonus amounts are more uniform than they have been recently.

1:14

Jeb: Who has the best helmet throwing tool?

1:14

Eric A Longenhagen: Tom Sizemore

1:14

Ryan: Kyle Funkhouser has pitched well this year, already receiving a promotion. Will he prove to be steal for the Tigers?

1:14

Eric A Longenhagen: Sure as hell looks like one right now. Velo is back, slider is back, changeup is better.

1:15

Matt: Has anything Chance Adams has done so far this season changed your outlook on him from your report this offseason?

1:15

Eric A Longenhagen: Another guy I’m seeing tomorrow (that’s right, four games tomorrow) so check the daily notes on Thursday.

1:15

Greg: Your thoughts on Alec Hansen? Future top 100 prospect?

1:16

Eric A Longenhagen: If he keeps throwing strikes, yeah. Has great stuff. 94-97, chance for a six breaking balls, huge extension.

1:16

Zihuatenejo: What’s the highest overall FV you ever put on a draft prospect and who was it?

1:17

Eric A Longenhagen: I’ve only been doing the FV dance for a year now, and have put 60s on 3 guys (wright, Greene and Ray)

1:17

Ben: Is Clint Frazier’s power surge legit?

1:18

Eric A Longenhagen: I think the question is, “why, when a prospect has had huge raw power since he was in high school, did we ever think he didn’t have power?”

1:18

Sergio Mendes: Brazil is looking more and more like the next big pipeline of international talent. Which teams ahead of the pack there (or in any other non-traditional baseball countries)?

1:18

Eric A Longenhagen: Seattle has had several guys come out of Brazil (Gohara, Vierra) and the Japanese influence in that country probably favors Seattle, too.

1:18

Neema: Has your overall assessment of AJ Puk improved since the beginning of the season?

1:19

Eric A Longenhagen: Yes. Body looked better this spring and the curveball reboot got a 70% on Rotten Tomatoes.

1:19

J: Are they any day 2 guys you really like? I’m intrigued by Noah Campbell and Caden Lemons

1:20

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah, Lemons is interesting because of the physical projection. Mason House, the aforementioned Cave, Colton Hock all interesting to me. Estrada.

1:20

Ben: How concerned should I be by the relatively quiet season Rutherford is having in Low A?

1:21

Eric A Longenhagen: Very little, most high schcoolers are still in extended at this point.

1:21

SDtoSEA: Do you have anything interesting you could share on some of the Pads’ J2 class in AZ like Almanzar, Rosario, Barley, etc?

1:22

Eric A Longenhagen: Haven’t run into Almanzar. Rosario’s timing is off right now, looks fine physically. Barley has gotten stronger and is taking huge hacks. Lopez and Arias look like defensive aces. Miliano sitting upper 80 with plane and strikes. It’s a great class, very excited for the AZL

1:22

Ryan E: Should I give up on JP Crawford or do you think he still has a chance to be something?

1:23

Jeremy: Phillies fan here. JP Crawford now has 580 PA of slashing .230/.325/.302 in AAA. Should I start panicking that he can’t make adjustments, or (gulp) that he’s a glove-first backup without sufficient pop to start in the majors?

1:23

The Sarris Wheel: Do you still attribute JP Crawford’s 2017 struggles to his typical adjustment period, or is it time to worry?

1:23

PD: What’s wrong with JP Crawford?

1:23

Eric A Longenhagen: Folks, I wrote about him today and literally posted a link at the beginning of the chat. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/daily-prospect-notes-530/

1:24

Eric A Longenhagen: Please read my stuff so I can keep having this job instead of cherry picking advice for your dynasty league in this chat and on twitter.

1:25

Hardly Working: Who are the fastest risers out of the ’16 class so far? Any surprises there?

1:25

Eric A Longenhagen: Bo Bafette.

1:25

Erik: If a team were to develop a two-way player, are they most likely to do that with a first rounder or a late rounder? A college player or a high school player?

1:26

Eric A Longenhagen: Teams like to experiment with fringe guys but, if someone were viewed as likely to reach the bigs at all as either an arm or bat, he probably goes in the first two rounds so there’s a selection bias inherent in the answer to that question.

1:27

Eric A Longenhagen: And probably a college player since the player has already essentially had three years of development as a two way guy.

1:27

SDtoSEA: Has Eric Lauer improved any of his offerings to the point he could be more than a 4/5 or 5?

1:27

Eric A Longenhagen: I think you’ve got the right range of outcomes there, 4/5

1:27

Mitch: What’s wrong with Josh Hader? This just Colorado Springs or are there larger concerns?

1:28

Eric A Longenhagen: Haven’t heard of the stuff being down, CS just eats guys alive.

1:28

El Duderino: Dustin Fowler: What do you mean avg everyday? 270-15 Hr 15 Sb Good D?

1:29

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah, maybe more precious steals.

1:29

bryan: i believe you have seen adrian morejon in person – how much projection do you see?

1:29

Eric A Longenhagen: Physically? Very little. But already 93-96 with a chance for a plus change and slider.

1:29

Eric A Longenhagen: and command.

1:31

976: Why is everyone using your name at the end of questions, Eric?

1:31

Eric A Longenhagen: Appeals to my narcissism.

1:32

John S: Anderson Espinoza. Going to pitch this year or not?

1:32

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah, last I heard was June, which is upon us.

1:32

Rick Honeycutt: Nick Madrigal is tiny, but the kid can rake. Is he a first rounder next year?

1:32

Eric A Longenhagen: Hell yeah

1:32

Jeff: Have the white sox been linked to OF’s with that 11th pick? would Adell and Kendall have a higher ceiling than burger at third base? just worried they neglect position players and go pitching.

1:32

Eric A Longenhagen: Def a higher ceiling for the two OF.

1:33

Rob: I’m curious if any of the 2016 J2 guys have moved the needle based on instructs or extended spring? And are any of them lined up for rookie or short-season leagues?

1:34

Eric A Longenhagen: Haven’t heard that about any of the guys who signed at 16, though Morejon could have had he been healthy all spring and I bet Marcos Brito could hit in NYPL.

1:35

Guest: Your wife loves Cody Bellinger’s swing? Where do I find a wife that knows how to judge players swings? Lol

1:35

Eric A Longenhagen: She just thinks it looks cool and has listened to me muttering to myself enough for five years to pick some of it up.

1:36

Eric A Longenhagen: And she’s also an art teacher and, by nature, very visual, so she likes to pop into games now and then (as long as beer is available) and see what’s up.

1:36

Pete Reiser: What’s the strength of this draft class? Good prep arms in the 16-20 range?

1:36

Eric A Longenhagen: College pitching, prep OF.

1:37

Eric A Longenhagen: And data. All the relevant college players (save for McKay) have all been trackman’d a lot this year.

1:37

JD: Re: Vlad Jr. You know drinking age is 19 in Canada!?

1:37

Eric A Longenhagen: I did not, I’m such a hoser/knob.

1:37

Mel Kiper Jr: Who’s more accurate at his job me or you?

1:38

Eric A Longenhagen: Mayock is lord.

1:38

Jason: Eric, thanks for doing these. How do you know so much about prospects? Did you ever play professional ball yourself? Any aspirations to becoming a MLB scout (or were you one in a past life?)

1:40

Eric A Longenhagen: I haven’t played organized baseball since 8th grade. I’m curious, know when not to talk (which is most of the time, by the way) at games, am not scared to use a phone and have been at the right place at the right time a lot because I get up and go everywhere. Scouting for a team? Meh. They can ask if they want, I guess. Maybe one day.

1:40

JD15: I know the Cubs have really taken character into play when drafting and signing guys recently, but could they be in a situation where they can take a chance on a super talent with character issues (ie Romero) bc of the atmosphere they have created (similar to NE Patriots in football).

1:42

Eric A Longenhagen: I think you nailed it, have to have the right structure in place to add volatility without destabilizing things. Like the Pats try to do. But the social environment in the minors is a little different, guys are constantly moving, coaches are changing. It’s harder.

1:42

Lavar Ball: Don’t think I’m not watching, Longenhagen! Lonzo is going to take up baseball and throw a no-hitter.

1:43

Eric A Longenhagen: Give Tiny Lister his everything back, Lavar!

1:43

Chris Antonetti: Any reason to be concerned about Aiken’s results this year? Know he is still young/coming off TJ. Still think he could reach the ceiling he was projected at a few years ago?

1:44

Eric A Longenhagen: Nope, has been 88-91 for over a year now. Curveball is still good, but I’m out.

1:44

Christian: Seems like Corbin Burnes is dominating for the Brewers so far, what’s his ceiling?

1:44

Eric A Longenhagen: #4 starter

1:45

Trixie: Do you think Tristan Beck is worth the risk as a second round pick?

1:45

Eric A Longenhagen: I’d take him late rd 1

1:45

Eric A Longenhagen: If everyone else you think can start is off the board, I’m taking him.

1:45

Grant: Since it’s topical… How often do brawls/throwing at guys happen in the minors? Perhaps less rivalry, but also less to lose?

1:46

Eric A Longenhagen: Probably about as often as in the Majors. I’ve only ever seen like 3 in person. The crowd plays a huge role in the stadium’s energy in those situations and often in the minors, there isn’t one.

1:48

Eric A Longenhagen: Okay, gotta call it quits. See you all next week. I’m in Fayetteville this weekend for the regional so peep the tweets for draft stuff. Peace.

We hoped you liked reading Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat 5/30 by Eric Longenhagen!

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Eric Longenhagen is from Catasauqua, PA and currently lives in Tempe, AZ. He spent four years working for the Phillies Triple-A affiliate, two with Baseball Info Solutions and two contributing to prospect coverage at ESPN.com. Previous work can also be found at Sports On Earth, CrashburnAlley and Prospect Insider.

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