Author Archive

Top 17 Prospects: Toronto Blue Jays

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the Toronto Blue Jays farm system. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as from my own observations. The KATOH statistical projections, probable-outcome graphs, and (further down) Mahalanobis comps have been provided by Chris Mitchell. For more information on the 20-80 scouting scale by which all of my prospect content is governed you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this. -Eric Longenhagen

The KATOH projection system uses minor-league data and Baseball America prospect rankings to forecast future performance in the major leagues. For each player, KATOH produces a WAR forecast for his first six years in the major leagues. There are drawbacks to scouting the stat line, so take these projections with a grain of salt. Due to their purely objective nature, the projections here can be useful in identifying prospects who might be overlooked or overrated. Due to sample-size concerns, only players with at least 200 minor-league plate appearances or batters faced last season have received projections. -Chris Mitchell

Other Lists
NL West (ARI, COL, LAD, SD, SF)
AL Central (CHW, CLE, DET, KC, MIN)
NL Central (CHC, CIN, PIT, MIL, StL)
NL East (ATL, MIA, NYM, PHI, WAS)
AL East (BAL, BOSNYY, TB)

Blue Jays Top Prospects
Rk Name Age Highest Level Position ETA FV
1 Vlad, Jr. Guerrero 17 R 3B 2019 55
2 Anthony Alford 22 A+ OF 2018 50
3 Sean Reid-Foley 21 A+ RHP 2019 50
4 Richard Urena 21 AA SS 2019 45
5 Jon Harris 23 A+ RHP 2018 45
6 TJ Zeuch 21 A RHP 2019 45
7 Lourdes Gurriel 23 R UTIL 2017 45
8 Rowdy Tellez 22 AA 1B 2017 45
9 Conner Greene 21 AA RHP 2018 45
10 Bo Bichette 19 R INF 2020 40
11 Justin Maese 20 A RHP 2020 40
12 Josh Palacios 21 A OF 2019 40
13 J.B. Woodman 22 A OF 2019 40
14 Reese McGuire 22 AA C 2018 40
15 Max Pentecost 24 A+ C 2018 40
16 Zach Jackson 22 A- RHP 2018 40
17 Harold Ramirez 22 AA OF 2018 40

55 FV Prospects

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2015 from Dominican Republic
Age 18 Height 6’1 Weight 200 Bat/Throw R/R
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
35/60 60/70 40/60 40/30 40/45 60/60

Relevant/Interesting Metrics
Slashed .270/.360/.450 as 17-year-old in Appy League.

Scouting Report
The Blue Jays traded for international-bonus slots and were able to avoid completely blowing out their bonus pool to sign Guerrero in 2015, instead spending in a range that only benched them from big international spending for one year instead of two. While most 17-year-old international signees spend their first pro season in the Dominican, Guerrero was advanced enough to come stateside. Not only that, but after spending time in extended spring training (and often hanging around and attentively watching Jays’ Florida State League games at night in April and May), Guerrero skipped the GCL and was sent to the Appalachian League, where he was dominant.

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Top 15 Prospects: Boston Red Sox

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the Boston Red Sox farm system. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as from my own observations. The KATOH statistical projections, probable-outcome graphs, and (further down) Mahalanobis comps have been provided by Chris Mitchell. For more information on the 20-80 scouting scale by which all of my prospect content is governed you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this. -Eric Longenhagen

The KATOH projection system uses minor-league data and Baseball America prospect rankings to forecast future performance in the major leagues. For each player, KATOH produces a WAR forecast for his first six years in the major leagues. There are drawbacks to scouting the stat line, so take these projections with a grain of salt. Due to their purely objective nature, the projections here can be useful in identifying prospects who might be overlooked or overrated. Due to sample-size concerns, only players with at least 200 minor-league plate appearances or batters faced last season have received projections. -Chris Mitchell

Other Lists
NL West (ARI, COL, LAD, SD, SF)
AL Central (CHW, CLE, DET, KC, MIN)
NL Central (CHC, CIN, PIT, MIL, StL)
NL East (ATL, MIA, NYM, PHI, WAS)
AL East (BAL, NYY, TB)

Red Sox Top Prospects
Rk Name Age Highest Level Position ETA FV
1 Andrew Benintendi 22 MLB OF 2017 65
2 Rafael Devers 20 A+ 3B 2019 55
3 Jay Groome 18 A- LHP 2020 55
4 Sam Travis 23 AAA 1B 2017 45
5 Bobby Dalbec 21 A- 3B 2019 40
6 C.J. Chatham 22 A- SS 2019 40
7 Roniel Raudes 19 A RHP 2020 40
8 Travis Lankins 22 A+ RHP 2018 40
9 Josh Ockimey 21 A 1B 2020 40
10 Brian Johnson 26 MLB LHP 2017 40
11 Ben Taylor 24 AA RHP 2017 40
12 Mike Shawaryn 22 A- RHP 2019 40
13 Michael Chavis 21 A+ 3B 2019 40
14 Kyle Martin 26 AAA RHP 2017 40
15 Aneury Tavarez 24 AAA OF 2017 40

65 FV Prospects

Drafted: 1st Round, 2015 from Arkansas
Age 22 Height 5’10 Weight 170 Bat/Throw L/L
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
60/70 55/55 45/55 55/55 50/55 50/50

Relevant/Interesting Metrics
Slashed .295/.360/.475 during big-league call-up.

Scouting Report
There were evaluators who didn’t know Benintendi was a draft-eligible sophomore as the 2015 season began. They had little reason to. He was solid but unspectacular as a freshman at Arkansas (in part due to injury), showing promising on-base skills but hitting for zero power while offering what appeared to be little physical projection. He didn’t play summer ball as a rising sophomore, either, as he recovered from a leg injury. He was allowed to do upper-body strength training and little else, so Benintendi bulked up. The following spring he was dominant, whacking 35 extra-base hits, posting a 1.205 OPS against mostly SEC opponents, and rocketing up boards into the top three or four for some clubs. The Red Sox drafted him seventh overall.

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Top 31 Prospects: Tampa Bay Rays

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the Tampa Bay Rays farm system. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as from my own observations. The KATOH statistical projections, probable-outcome graphs, and (further down) Mahalanobis comps have been provided by Chris Mitchell. For more information on the 20-80 scouting scale by which all of my prospect content is governed you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this. -Eric Longenhagen

The KATOH projection system uses minor-league data and Baseball America prospect rankings to forecast future performance in the major leagues. For each player, KATOH produces a WAR forecast for his first six years in the major leagues. There are drawbacks to scouting the stat line, so take these projections with a grain of salt. Due to their purely objective nature, the projections here can be useful in identifying prospects who might be overlooked or overrated. Due to sample-size concerns, only players with at least 200 minor-league plate appearances or batters faced last season have received projections. -Chris Mitchell

Other Lists
NL West (ARI, COL, LAD, SD, SF)
AL Central (CHW, CLE, DET, KC, MIN)
NL Central (CHC, CIN, PIT, MIL, StL)
NL East (ATL, MIA, NYM, PHI, WAS)
AL East (BAL, BOSNYY, TB, TOR)

Rays Top Prospects
Rk Name Age Highest Level Position ETA FV
1 Willy Adames 21 AA SS 2018 60
2 Brent Honeywell 21 AA RHP 2018 55
3 Jose DeLeon 24 MLB RHP 2016 55
4 Jesus Sanchez 19 R OF 2020 50
5 Jake Bauers 21 AA 1B 2018 45
6 Josh Lowe 19 R CF 2021 45
7 Chih-Wei Hu 23 AAA RHP 2018 45
8 Lucius Fox 19 A SS 2021 45
9 Casey Gillaspie 24 AAA 1B 2017 45
10 Adrian Rondon 18 R 3B 2021 45
11 Garrett Whitley 20 A- OF 2021 45
12 Daniel Robertson 23 AAA UTIL 2017 40
13 Austin Franklin 19 R RHP 2021 40
14 Justin Williams 21 AA OF 2019 40
15 Jacob Faria 23 AAA RHP 2017 40
16 Ryne Stanek 25 AAA RHP 2017 40
17 Jake Fraley 21 A- OF 2019 40
18 Diego Castillo 23 R RHP 2017 40
19 Chris Betts 20 A- C 2020 40
20 Resly Linares 19 R LHP 2020 40
21 Michael Santos 21 A RHP 2019 40
22 Kevin Padlo 20 A 3B 2020 40
23 Taylor Guerrieri 24 AA RHP 2017 40
24 Hunter Wood 23 AA RHP 2017 40
25 Jaime Schultz 25 AAA RHP 2017 40
26 Greg Harris 22 AAA RHP 2018 40
27 David Rodriguez 21 R C 2019 40
28 Jose Alvarado 21 A+ LHP 2017 40
29 Brandon Koch 23 R RHP 2018 40
30 Ryan Boldt 22 A- CF 2019 40
31 Jhonleider Salinas 21 R RHP 2020 40

60 FV Prospects

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2012 from Dominican Republic
Age 21 Height 6’1 Weight 180 Bat/Throw R/R
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
40/55 55/60 40/55 45/40 40/45 60/60

Relevant/Interesting Metrics
Slashed .270/.370/.430 as a 20-year-old at Double-A.

Scouting Report
The barrel-chested Adames might ordinarily project to move off shortstop given his build, but it seems to me that Tampa has a rather liberal organizational philosophy about what constitutes a viable defensive shortstop and Adames isn’t going to be any more offensive there than aging Asdrubal Cabrera and Yunel Escobar have been in recent years.

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Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat, All the Brewers, all the Angels

12:01
Eric A Longenhagen: Howdy, is this thing on?

12:01
Eric A Longenhagen: ‘Tis.

12:01
Eric A Longenhagen: Let me tweet a link to the started chat and we’ll get rolling.

12:03
Eric A Longenhagen: Okay. How are you folks? I am well. Walker Buehler is pitching in the Dodgers big league road game today so if you’ve got MLB.tv and that game is on, you should check that out.

12:03
Gary: Are you heading to Florida for camps there at all or just staying in Arizona?

12:03
Eric A Longenhagen: Just here, if I do Florida it will be to straddle Extended and the FSL while also hitting draft stuff.

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Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat, 3/21

12:01

Eric A Longenhagen: Good morning from Tempe.

12:02

Eric A Longenhagen: Chat, go.

12:02

Tommy N.: Did you get to see the Padres’ prospects recently? What can you tell us about what you saw?

12:02

Eric A Longenhagen: Yes, several.

12:02

Eric A Longenhagen: Hold on, let me grab my notes so I can do this properly….

12:02

Eric A Longenhagen: Okay..

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Top 18 Prospects: Baltimore Orioles

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the Baltimore Orioles farm system. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as from my own observations. The KATOH statistical projections, probable-outcome graphs, and (further down) Mahalanobis comps have been provided by Chris Mitchell. For more information on the 20-80 scouting scale by which all of my prospect content is governed you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this. -Eric Longenhagen

The KATOH projection system uses minor-league data and Baseball America prospect rankings to forecast future performance in the major leagues. For each player, KATOH produces a WAR forecast for his first six years in the major leagues. There are drawbacks to scouting the stat line, so take these projections with a grain of salt. Due to their purely objective nature, the projections here can be useful in identifying prospects who might be overlooked or overrated. Due to sample-size concerns, only players with at least 200 minor-league plate appearances or batters faced last season have received projections. -Chris Mitchell

Other Lists
NL West (ARI, COL, LAD, SD, SF)
AL Central (CHW, CLE, DET, KC, MIN)
NL Central (CHC, CIN, PIT, MIL, StL)
NL East (ATL, MIA, NYM, PHI, WAS)
AL East (BAL, BOSNYY, TB, TOR)

Orioles Top Prospects
Rk Name Age Highest Level Position ETA FV
1 Chance Sisco 22 AAA C 2018 50
2 Cody Sedlock 21 A- RHP 2019 45
3 Ryan Mountcastle 20 A LF 2019 45
4 Keegan Akin 21 A- LHP 2020 45
5 Trey Mancini 24 MLB 1B 2017 45
6 Hunter Harvey 22 A RHP 2020 40
7 Gabriel Ynoa 23 MLB RHP 2017 40
8 Austin Hays 21 A- OF 2020 40
9 Jomar Reyes 20 A+ 3B 2020 40
10 Anthony Santander 22 A+ 1B/OF 2018 40
11 Ofelky Peralta 19 A RHP 2020 40
12 Matthias Dietz 21 A- RHP 2020 40
13 Chris Lee 24 AA LHP 2017 40
14 Jesus Liranzo 22 AA RHP 2017 40
15 Aneury Tavarez 24 AAA OF 2017 40
16 Garrett Cleavinger 22 A+ LHP 2018 40
17 Cedric Mullins 22 A OF 2020 40
18 Tanner Scott 22 AA LHP 2019 40

50 FV Prospects

Drafted: 2nd Round, 2013 from Santiago HS (CA)
Age 22 Height 6’2 Weight 193 Bat/Throw L/R
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
50/55 50/50 40/45 30/30 45/50 40/40

Relevant/Interesting Metrics
Slashed .320/.406/.422 at Double-A in 2016.

Scouting Report
While this series has often extolled the virtues of loud tools, the best aspects of Sisco’s game are ensconced in quiet. This is most important defensively, where Sisco has improved to the point of viability. Balls in the dirt are sputtering off of Sisco’s catching gear with less force, and his receiving has become more still and refined. Scouts now consider Sisco, who didn’t start catching until his senior year of high school in 2013, a viable defensive backstop. Nobody is particularly excited about him back there, but he’s okay right now and should improve into his mid-20s as he continuously makes good use of his above-average athleticism and refines his skills. In fact, scouts consider Sisco athletic enough that, were something to occur that requires him to move out from behind the plate, he might be able to play somewhere other than first base/DH, which is often the value-crushing alternative for unsound defensive catchers.

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Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat, Pie

1:02
Eric A Longenhagen: Howdy, chat.

1:02
Eric A Longenhagen: You’re all perfect children of god. Let’s chat about baseball.

1:03
Eric A Longenhagen: Oh wait, top 100…

1:03
Eric A Longenhagen: Please check that out if you have yet to.

1:03
Eric A Longenhagen: OKay, now let’s start.

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2017 Top 100 Prospects

Below is my list of the top-100 prospects in baseball. Each prospect has a brief scouting summary here with links to the full team reports embedded in their names where applicable. Those without links will have them added as I cover the remaining farm systems. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided by industry sources, as well as from my own observations. For more information on the 20-80 scouting scale by which all of my prospect content is governed, you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this.

Note that prospects below are ranked overall and that they also lie within tiers demarcated by their FV grades. I think there’s plenty of room for argument within the tiers, and part of the reason I like FV is because it can illustrate how an on-paper gap that seems large may not actually be. The gap between prospect No. 3 on this list, Amed Rosario, and prospect No. 33, Delvin Perez, is 30 spots but the difference between their talent/risk/proximity profiles is quite large. The gap between Perez and prospect No. 63, Kyle Tucker, is also 30 numerical places but the gap in talent is relatively small. Below the list is a brief rundown of names of 50 FV prospects who didn’t make the 100. This same comparative principle applies to them.   -Eric Longenhagen

70 FV Prospects

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2015 from Cuba
Age 22 Height 6’2 Weight 205 Bat/Throw B/R
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/60 60/60 40/60 70/70 40/50 70/70

Scouting Summary
The tools are deafening. Moncada is a plus-plus runner with plus-plus arm strength, plus raw power and an advanced idea of the strike zone. He’s going to strike out, and there are some within the industry concerned about how much. That said, I think it’s important to consider that while Moncada was K-ing a lot late last year he was also a 21-year old who had played for just a month and a half above A-ball and, during a large chunk of that time, was learning a new position. The stat-based projection systems, KATOH and otherwise, seem comfortable with it, and so am I. I think he’ll provide rare power and patience while playing a premium position — he’s looked fine at second base in my looks this spring — and, while it might take adjustment at the big-league level, I think he’ll eventually be the best of this crop of minor leaguers.

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Top 33 Prospects: New York Yankees

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the New York Yankees farm system. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as from my own observations. The KATOH statistical projections, probable-outcome graphs, and (further down) Mahalanobis comps have been provided by Chris Mitchell. For more information on thes 20-80 scouting scale by which all of my prospect content is governed you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this. -Eric Longenhagen

The KATOH projection system uses minor-league data and Baseball America prospect rankings to forecast future performance in the major leagues. For each player, KATOH produces a WAR forecast for his first six years in the major leagues. There are drawbacks to scouting the stat line, so take these projections with a grain of salt. Due to their purely objective nature, the projections here can be useful in identifying prospects who might be overlooked or overrated. Due to sample-size concerns, only players with at least 200 minor-league plate appearances or batters faced last season have received projections. -Chris Mitchell

Other Lists
NL West (ARI, COL, LAD, SD, SF)
AL Central (CHW, CLE, DET, KC, MIN)
NL Central (CHC, CIN, PIT, MIL, StL)
NL East (ATL, MIA, NYM, PHI, WAS)
AL East (BAL, BOSNYY, TB, TOR)

Yankees Top Prospects
Rk Name Age Highest Level Position ETA FV
1 Gleyber Torres 20 A+ SS 2018 60
2 Clint Frazier 22 AAA OF 2017 55
3 Blake Rutherford 19 R OF 2019 55
4 James Kaprielian 23 A+ RHP 2018 55
5 Aaron Judge 24 MLB RF 2017 55
6 Jorge Mateo 21 A+ SS 2018 50
7 Dustin Fowler 22 AA CF 2018 50
8 Justus Sheffield 20 AA LHP 2018 50
9 Albert Abreu 21 A+ RHP 2019 45
10 Chance Adams 22 AA RHP 2018 45
11 Miguel Andujar 22 AA 3B 2018 45
12 Dillon Tate 22 A RHP 2018 45
13 Tyler Wade 22 AA UTIL 2017 45
14 Jordan Montgomery 24 AAA LHP 2017 45
15 Chad Green 25 MLB RHP 2017 45
16 Estevan Florial 19 R CF 2020 45
17 Jonathan Holder 23 MLB RHP 2017 45
18 Domingo Acevedo 23 A+ RHP 2018 40
19 Wilkerman Garcia 18 R SS 2021 40
20 Dermis Garcia 19 R 3B 2021 40
21 Nolan Martinez 18 R RHP 2022 40
22 Ronald Herrera 21 AA RHP 2018 40
23 Ian Clarkin 22 A+ LHP 2018 40
24 Gio Gallegos 25 AAA RHP 2017 40
25 Kyle Higashioka 26 AAA C 2017 40
26 Tyler Austin 25 MLB OF 2017 40
27 Rony Garcia 19 R RHP 2020 40
28 Kyle Holder 22 A SS 2021 40
29 Jeff Hendrix 23 A+ CF 2018 40
30 Ben Heller 25 MLB RHP 2017 40
31 Billy McKinney 22 AA OF 2018 40
32 Johnny Barbato 24 MLB RHP 2017 40
33 Leonardo Molina 19 A OF 2021 40

60 FV Prospects

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2013 from Venezuela
Age 20 Height 6’1 Weight 175 Bat/Throw R/R
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
40/60 55/60 35/55 50/40 40/50 60/60

Relevant/Interesting Metrics
Slashed .270/.354/.421 in 2016.

Scouting Report
When I first saw Gleyber Torres shortly after I moved to Arizona during the summer of 2014, I thought he was a nice little middle-infield prospect with a good feel to hit and a chance to stay at short. I also thought the offense might not profile to another position. Two years later, Torres has already grown into more raw power than I initially projected (by a full grade) while also remaining potentially viable at short. He has become one of baseball’s best prospects.

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Eric Longenhagen Prospect Chat, March to Completion

12:02
Eric A Longenhagen: Good morning from Tempe. Link to Nationals prospect list….

12:03
Eric A Longenhagen: I’ve wrestled the Yankees list to the ground should finish hog-tying it late tonight, just before Olney and Gammons start tweeting.

12:03
Eric A Longenhagen: Okay, let’s go.

12:03
80 grade question asker: hi eric, upcoming prospects draft. do you have a preference maitan vs senzel?

12:04
Eric A Longenhagen: I’ll say what you probably already know: I like Maitan’s upside, I like Senzel’s probability. Beyond that I’d ask you and all other fantasy owners with this guy or that guy fantasy questions to read my stuff and make a decision about your draft on your own based on what I’ve provided.

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