Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat 7/4

Eric A Longenhagen: Good morning. Quick one today for obvious reasons. Perhaps not so obvious, the AZL schedule is very staggered today giving me a chance to get to four games today. They start at 10am here, so let’s boogie.

Tommy N.: How far away is Jacob Nix from your top 100?

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s probably already there

Steven : Is Alex Speas expected to come up as a reliever for Texas?

Eric A Longenhagen: Worth trying to develop him as a starter and I think he has a shot, even if it’s only 30 or 40%, to be one.

Eric A Longenhagen: Also, even if you think the player ends up in the bullpen, starter development gives them more chances to work on the secondary pitches.

Marc : What are your thoughts on Kopech’s chances to stick as a starter? BB rate still seems to indicate reliever.

Eric A Longenhagen: Better than even odds he stays a starter. He’s a remarkable physical specimen and athlete and I think he’ll figure out a way to rein it in.

Scott: Forrest Whitley or Franklin Perez?  Both seem to be on the fast track…

Eric A Longenhagen: Whitley

G: What’s a good ceiling comp for Luis Castillo?

Eric A Longenhagen: Tough one. Elite velo, plus change, fringey breaking ball and spotty command. Sure sounds an awful lot like a reliever to me.

Philip: Is Tatis Jr now a top 25 prospect or is that too aggressive?

Eric A Longenhagen: He was a 50 FV for me over the winter (a potential star with great risk/distance to the Majors) and probably bumps up to a 55 (scouting report is basically the same but he’s a year closer and has proven he can hit in full season ball) putting him in the 25-70 range or so

Erix: Why are so few of the top J2 prospects pitchers?

Eric A Longenhagen: A significant number of them are just speculative body/delivery projection prospects right now, very little present stuff.

Philip: Where are you taking your nba talents too?

Eric A Longenhagen: Memphis

SouthSider: What Is Jordan Guerrero’s ceiling?

Eric A Longenhagen: Realistically like a #4/5

John: Thoughts on Brandon Marsh?

Eric A Longenhagen: Really like him. Power, chance to stay in CF.  I’m having a hard time slotting the top four guys in that org for updated team top 10s.

Sam: Why does a prospect like Josh Ockimey not have higher value? Very high walk rate, good raw power, has hit at all levels.

Eric A Longenhagen: Below average defender and athlete means he has no margin for error whatsoever with that bat and he has swing and miss issues. 1B-only guys are very risky. I’ve been on Ockimey since high school, like him quite a bit, but the process isn’t kind to first basemen.

Alan: How much stock do you put in a HS draft pick’s GCL or AZL stats?

Eric A Longenhagen: Zero

SouthSider: If you’re the Cubs is Eloy off limits for a Gray/Quintana trade?

Eric A Longenhagen: Nobody is off limits if you think you have a shot at a ring.

Marc : Can Jack Flaherty be more than mid rotation guy?

Eric A Longenhagen: Perhaps, but I think he’s a mid-rotation guy. Which is to say I think he has a shot to be a #3, a 60.

Buff: You wrote before the season that if Walker Buehler could sustain what he showed in limited looks last year that he would be one of baseball’s best prospects by midseason. Job done?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yes

Carlo: Heard anything on Grant Holmes this year? Thanks!

Eric A Longenhagen: He was not good for me here in AZ before he was sent out to an affiliate. Velo down a tick, delivery a bit erratic. Hasn’t thrown strikes for a while.

Green Chiles: What have you heard on Morejon’s stuff so far?

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s fine. 92-96 with command and he’ll miss bats with both the slider and change

Rob: Does Nick Madrigal’s size prevent him from going top 5 next year?

Eric A Longenhagen: He might not go in the top 5 just because their are five better prospects in the draft. It’s something teams will talk about but I think he goes in the top 10-15 picks.

Servo: Is Tyler Stephenson officially back on track after a lost 2016?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yup, and a great example of why you stick with toolsy prospects even after they’ve had a lost year

Forrest: How long are the Twins going to ride the proven disaster that is Byron Buxton when Zack Granite has a .363/.415/.500 slash line (with 15 SBs in 20 ATT and only 25Ks in 244 PAs)?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m not sure how you just give up on a player with Buxton’s physical gifts so early.

Rahul: Is Jaime Barria a 50+ FV now? Destroyed high A & now AA, strikeouts up, excellent command. I take it the changeup is now plus plus? Future mid rotation or still back end guy for you?

Eric A Longenhagen: Scouts think he has a shot to be a #3, so yup he’s firmly a 50FV for me at this point and in the overall top 100 discussion.

Frank Thomas on the Padres: Future value on Franmil Reyes?

Eric A Longenhagen: 1B only guy so probably a 40 or 45, though he certainly has the power to play there.

Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: Do you see Wander Franco sticking at short, and do you still like the bat if he slides over to second or third?

Eric A Longenhagen: A likely mover

George Washington: Who has a better shot at entering the top 100 at the end of season: Edwin Rios or Dennis Santana?

Eric A Longenhagen: Santana

Randy: Who is currently your favorite righthanded pitcher to watch in the minors?

Eric A Longenhagen: Honeywell

Rick Smutcliffe: I see a lot of comps between Clint Frazier and Josh Donaldson, and not just in their cockiness. Thoughts?

Eric A Longenhagen: That comp makes little sense to me.

Brien Taylor: Have you heard much about Michel Baez for the Padres? It seems like they are pretty excited about him.

Eric A Longenhagen: Like 93-97 with a hammer breaking ball. He’s very big, very athletic. Probably too much for the AZL, he might kick out to an affiliate before the summer is over.

Frank: Francisco Mejia, is he that good?

Eric A Longenhagen: If it walks like a plus-hitting catcher and quacks like a plus-hitting catcher, it’s a plus hitting catcher.

LudeBurger: you are a saint

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m going to leave you for a baseball game in a few minutes, I’m a sinner.

James: Can you do a quick rundown of where you see the Reds young arms ending up, bullpen or SP?: Finnegan, Stephenson, Reed, Mahle, Romero, Castillo, Gutierrez.

Eric A Longenhagen: Is Romero referring to Wennigton? If so
SP: Mahle,

Eric A Longenhagen: and Romero

Eric A Longenhagen: Situation fluid for Vlad, Castillo and maybe still Reed. Rest are RPs

JR: Will you be updating org prospect rankings after the draft/J2 signings?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’ll do org rankings after the deadline when prospect movement has settled

Carrie Bendorff: What’s (Jays infielder/Cuban emigre/bro of Yuli) Lourdes Gurriel’s ceiling?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think he’s a utility guy

Ben McDonald: Is it too early to be asking about Estevan Florial’s top 100 chances?

Eric A Longenhagen: Nah, they exist

Greg: Have you seen Michel Baez? Thoughts?

Eric A Longenhagen:

Kilmshaw: Haven’t heard much about Willy Adames this year. Is he still among the top SS prospects, or has he fallen off?

Eric A Longenhagen: Still way, way up there. Like top 10-15 in all of baseball.

Steve: Austin Hayes, will he be exposed as he moves up or will his tools hold up?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think the approach gets exposed.

Todd Van Poppel: Khalil Lee is striking out a ton, but the rest of the stat line looks pretty good. Are you hearing good things about him?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yup. Power, patience. Probably always going to swing and miss.

Dr. Torch: Anderson Espinoza sightings?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’ve heard it’s still going to be a few weeks.

Dr. Torch: Hi Eric.  Can you tell me if MLB teams have a preference as far as a SP prospect being right or left handed?  Like, if you could clone let’s say Clayton Kershaw but make him right-handed, would you?  Would he be even “better” as a righty?

Eric A Longenhagen: Differing opinions on which handedness is preferred. Lefties are more rare but most hitters bat from the right side.

BK: Can Maitan stick at short?

Eric A Longenhagen: No

Xolo: Michel Baez was just called up to Single-A. Thoughts on him?

Eric A Longenhagen: Ah well, there you go.

pinstripes: Jorge Mateo looks rejuvenated in AA and seems to be rebuilding his prospect stock. You see a league average MLB player in there in the future?

Eric A Longenhagen: Still do, yeah. Think it’s going to be a little while yet, though.

Aron Judge : Anyone in the minors who can hit the ball as hard as I can

Eric A Longenhagen: Eloy, Cozens.

Kareem Babdul Jaffar: Does Franklin Barreto have the glove to stick at short? Or do you see him ending up in the OF or elsewhere?

Eric A Longenhagen: CF for me

A: Hi Eric! Have you seen JoJo Romero? The performance seems really good and I’m wondering what kind of upside he has.

Eric A Longenhagen: Low-90s, very athletic, avg slider will flash better, above average changeup

Eric A Longenhagen: Could be a #4  or 4/5 which is great for where they got him

SR: It looks like Dillon Tate is alive, and putting up nice numbers through 3 starts. Time to get excited again?

Metsies: Should we be getting nervous about Justin Dunn now or are we still looking at a small

Eric A Longenhagen: ^putting those back to back and just leaving them there

Eric A Longenhagen: They’re not bad questions, just answers to one another

hrre: Is Dom Smith going to be an above average 1B?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think so

Mason: I’ve heard you say a couple times in the past year that Julio Rodriguez is the name to watch in this J2 class. My Mariners ended up being the team to grab. Does he still carry the hype youve been hearing about him and why?

Eric A Longenhagen: Mostly. I ranked him fourth in the class. Has big power projection.

Juanes: Who’s the best prospect you’ve ever seen play live, and why?

Eric A Longenhagen: Bats: Trout and Harper
Arms: Gerrit Cole and Strasburg

fangraphs man: how long would you let Luis Robert dominate 17 year olds before you bring him stateside?

Eric A Longenhagen: Do it now while SHeets and Burger are here so I can sese them all at once. Do it.

Anon: How do you balance the fact that sometimes good players have bad games with the fact that you see each player very little?

Eric A Longenhagen: By bearing that in mind, focusing on physical attributes and talking to scouts

Joe schmoe: Thoughts on Taylor Clarke?

Eric A Longenhagen: Probably relief.

Daniel: How does Kyle Wright compare to Gerrit Cole coming out of college?

Eric A Longenhagen: Not as favorably. Cole’s first pro start he was up to 101 with a 7 changeup and 6 slider

Adam: Some are wondering why Bo Bichette lasted until the 66th pick. However, he has openly acknowledged that he turned down deals with other teams to get to the Blue Jays. How difficult is it to know if a team “missed” on a player in the draft?

Eric A Longenhagen: It;s very hard but any team could have drafted Bo, made him a good offer and dared him to go to school if they really wanted to.

Eric A Longenhagen: Alright, I’m out of here. Happy Independence Day to our American readers, happy belated Canada Day to those to our north.