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Below is an analysis of the prospects in the San Diego Padres farm system. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as from my own observations. The KATOH statistical projections, probable-outcome graphs, and (further down) Mahalanobis comps have been provided by Chris Mitchell. For more information on thes 20-80 scouting scale by which all of my prospect content is governed you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this. -Eric Longenhagen

The KATOH projection system uses minor-league data and Baseball America prospect rankings to forecast future performance in the major leagues. For each player, KATOH produces a WAR forecast for his first six years in the major leagues. There are drawbacks to scouting the stat line, so take these projections with a grain of salt. Due to their purely objective nature, the projections here can be useful in identifying prospects who might be overlooked or overrated. Due to sample-size concerns, only players with at least 200 minor-league plate appearances or batters faced last season have received projections. -Chris Mitchell

Other Lists
NL West (ARI, COL, LAD, SD, SF)
AL Central (CHW, CLE, DET, KC, MIN)
NL Central (CHC, CIN, PIT, MIL, StL)
NL East (ATL, MIA, NYM, PHI, WAS)
AL East (BAL, BOS, NYY, TB, TOR)

60 FV Prospects

Relevant/Interesting Metrics
Recorded just 5.6% walk rate after trade to San Diego.

Scouting Report
Espinoza got a $1.8 million bonus in 2014 despite his diminutive stature because, despite a lack of height, his arm worked incredibly well and he already showed terrific feel for spin. He was unhittable in the GCL when he debuted stateside, allowing just three earned runs in 40 innings there. He wasn’t as dominant in 2016 and reports of his stuff and performance were a little inconsistent, after he was traded to San Diego for Drew Pomeranz, but this was an 18-year-old dealing with severance from the organization that changed his life and his peripherals were good despite inflated ERAs. By the time instructional league arrived, things had come together and Espinoza was arguably the best pitching prospect throwing during instructs in either Arizona or Florida. He was 95-97 with movement in an abbreviated final instructional-league outing and flashed a plus-plus curveball.

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Below is an analysis of the prospects in the San Francisco Giants farm system. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as from my own observations. The KATOH statistical projections, probable-outcome graphs, and (further down) Mahalanobis comps have been provided by Chris Mitchell. For more information on thes 20-80 scouting scale by which all of my prospect content is governed you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this. -Eric Longenhagen

The KATOH projection system uses minor-league data and Baseball America prospect rankings to forecast future performance in the major leagues. For each player, KATOH produces a WAR forecast for his first six years in the major leagues. There are drawbacks to scouting the stat line, so take these projections with a grain of salt. Due to their purely objective nature, the projections here can be useful in identifying prospects who might be overlooked or overrated. Due to sample-size concerns, only players with at least 200 minor-league plate appearances or batters faced last season have received projections. -Chris Mitchell

Other Lists
NL West (ARI, COL, LAD, SD, SF)
AL Central (CHW, CLE, DET, KC, MIN)
NL Central (CHC, CIN, PIT, MIL, StL)
NL East (ATL, MIA, NYM, PHI, WAS)
AL East (BAL, BOS, NYY, TB, TOR)

Relevant/Interesting Metrics
Slashed .224/.278/.294 at home in 2016, .315/.348/.438 on the road. Worth +11 runs at combination of shortstop and third base this year per Clay Davenport

Scouting Report
Arroyo was viewed as a bit of a reach when he was drafted because he was already very likely to move off of shortstop and quite unlikely to develop prototypical, corner-worthy power. Some scouts wanted to give him a try behind the plate because it was the only place they thought his bat would profile. While scouts were right about Arroyo’s power projection, it may prove less relevant to his future than originally anticipated because his feel to hit compensates so well for it.

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Below is an analysis of the prospects in the Arizona Diamondbacks farm system. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as from my own observations. The KATOH statistical projections, probable-outcome graphs, and (further down) Mahalanobis comps have been provided by Chris Mitchell. For more information on thes 20-80 scouting scale by which all of my prospect content is governed you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this. -Eric Longenhagen

The KATOH projection system uses minor-league data and Baseball America prospect rankings to forecast future performance in the major leagues. For each player, KATOH produces a WAR forecast for his first six years in the major leagues. There are drawbacks to scouting the stat line, so take these projections with a grain of salt. Due to their purely objective nature, the projections here can be useful in identifying prospects who might be overlooked or overrated. Due to sample-size concerns, only players with at least 200 minor-league plate appearances or batters faced last season have received projections. -Chris Mitchell

Other Lists
NL West (ARI, COL, LAD, SD, SF)
AL Central (CHW, CLE, DET, KC, MIN)
NL Central (CHC, CIN, PIT, MIL, StL)
NL East (ATL, MIA, NYM, PHI, WAS)
AL East (BAL, BOS, NYY, TB, TOR)

Relevant/Interesting Metrics
Strikeout rate dropped from 17% to 13% after promotion to Triple-A, while walk rate held steady at 8.5%.

Scouting Report
The Diamondbacks drafted Banda out of high school in 2011. He didn’t sign, though, and then matriculated to JUCO powerhouse San Jacinto in Houston. The Brewers drafted and signed him the next year and Banda spent two years struggling in Rookie-level ball before the Diamondbacks acquired him in the Gerardo Parra deal (along with Mitch Haniger) in July of 2014. Banda took off after that, went to the Futures Game this year and had success at Triple-A in the hitter-friendly environs of Reno.

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I scouted Kyle Schwarber on Saturday and wrote my thoughts here. I encourage those who have not yet read that and have instead found themselves here to go back and skim over it for context. This afternoon in Mesa I was able to get a second look at Schwarber and see if any progress was evident. I believe there was and, while I can’t deny the way Schwarber is running the bases is slightly disconcerting, I think there’s enough juice in the bat right now to justify rostering him over either Chris Coghlan or Jorge Soler. Read the rest of this entry »

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Hours before hell froze over in Chicago in Saturday, Kyle Schwarber was added to the Mesa Solar Sox taxi squad and immediately cast into action as the team’s designated hitter that night at Sloan Park in Mesa.

His presence in the lineup was significant in a way that’s unusual for the Fall League. Most of the participants here are prospects benefiting from extra developmental time against reasonably advanced minor-league competition. Schwarber, on the other hand, is more or less auditioning for a a place on the Cubs’ World Series roster. When he stepped to the plate on Saturday, it represented his first place appearance in a professional game since suffering a knee injury on April 7. That injury was originally characterized as a “season-ending” one. But the Cubs’ season hasn’t ended yet, and Schwarber remains a candidate to contribute to it.

Below are my thoughts on his performance.

Schwarber went 0-for-3 with a walk, the 0 consisting of two weak ground outs to the right side and a well struck ball to the right-center-field gap that seemed destined for extra bases off the bat but was robbed by Rockies prospect Noel Cuevas. The least flattering aspect of Schwarber’s evening was his timing. He was out on his front foot against offspeed stuff a few times, which led to some of the evening’s weak contact and he missed a few other hittable pitches.

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Over the next several months, I’ll be releasing comprehensive reports on each major-league club’s farm system and the prospects therein. Implicit in this is that I will be ranking the prospects – both within each farm system and across baseball – based on my own evaluation of the players as well as that of industry sources. The players will be ordered by their “Future Value” grade. This Future Value methodology was brought to FanGraphs in 2014 by former Lead Prospect Analyst, Kiley McDaniel (reggaeton horn).

If you’d like to read what is essentially the Book of Genesis on Future Value, then I’ll direct you here for McDaniel’s (reggaeton horn) 2015 top-prospects list for an explanation of FV and its merits, as well as here for discussion about the 20-80 scouting scale.

In short, Future Value attempts to combine a prospect’s potential (reasonable ceiling and floor) as well as his chance of realizing it (including injury-related risks or proximity to the majors) into one tidy, value-based number.

There are some pretty obvious issues with this system, some of which are practical, others more personal, and I’ll touch on those briefly before explaining why I’m retaining the system.

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