Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat Goes to Washington

Eric A Longenhagen: Good afternoon from (sorta kinda) Washington D.C.

Eric A Longenhagen: White Sox prospect list went up yesterday so check that out if you can

Eric A Longenhagen: Let’s begin a baseball chat.

Brad: Give me a breakout prospect in the Atlanta system in 2017.

Eric A Longenhagen: Jimmy Walker. Not as good as other arms in the system but an underrated relief prospect.

Michael: You’ve said that Gleyber Torres’ defense didn’t look great at AFL. MLBPipeline guys say he’s a top 10 if not top 5 prospect and his defense looked sharp. What do you see different, or is his defense just raw compared to what it can be?

Eric A Longenhagen: He was just sloppy rather often. The talent is there and I think he’ll be a fine defender wherever he ends up, but scouts were not always enamored with what I guess I’d call “excessive flair” that at times made his throws inaccurate or just for him to miss grounders. I’m not really concerned about it.

Eric A Longenhagen: Lots of young infielders love Robbie Cano…

Jeb: What are the chances McCutchen gets traded by Thursday night? 60%?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think they’re less than that. If the Sale domino falls then I’d say chances of a deal improve.

Jim: What would be a good return for the Pirates if Cutch is traded?

Eric A Longenhagen: Something close to what they’d have gotten even if he didn’t have a bad 2016. A top 50 prospect + another flier or two would be reasonable. They’ve asked for better than that.

CarrotJuice: Do you have any doubts about Giolito now?

Eric A Longenhagen: Sure, I was alarmed by his 2016 but you can’t give up on an arm that talented as a prospect writer.

Eric A Longenhagen: Now, I’d imagine give the state of the Washington Nationals that their feelings on the matter are more complex than mine.

Eric A Longenhagen: And more informed.

Julio Pepper: Are Laureano and Acuna top 50 prospects?

Eric A Longenhagen: Acuna maybe, Laureano probably not but I really like him.

Tyler: How good can Austin Meadows be? Can he immediately fill in for Cutch?

Eric A Longenhagen: Hits, hits for power, has speed. He’s a top 15 prospect in baseball for me. Potential All Star.

Sam: Do you think Glasnow ever pans out and becomes a frontline starter?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’ve long been the low guy on Glasnow because I think there’s a real chance he’s just a reliever. There’s a chance it all clicks and he becomes an absolute monster. He has late-bloomer traits (mostly because of the body type) so it’s fine to be patient there.

Jim: The Brewers are loading up on prospects. Who’s their top guy at this point, and how many will crack the MLB lineup in 2017?

Bernie: What’s your take on the 2 prospects the Brewers got back for Thornburg?

Eric A Longenhagen: Brinson #1 for me. Not sure who gets there next year, too many variables to make that worth predicting.

Eric A Longenhagen: FYI the Gaylord wifi is no bueno so if responses are slow, that’s why.

Eric A Longenhagen: Dubon: Interesting and one of the tougher evals of the year for me. Athletic actions, looks the part at short but makes fundamental mistakes. Has good feel for contact, contact in Fall League was louder than I anticipated given the body but still of the low-lying line drive variety. If the body comes along he could be quite good, if not he may be outclassed, physically, in the bigs. I’ve talked to guys here in DC who think he’s an average everyday player and others that think he’s a 40.

Eric A Longenhagen: Pennington is a reliever all the way, might be a set-up type.

Eric A Longenhagen: Testing 1-2

Jake: Hi Eric! Francisco Mejia and Brady Aiken for McCutchen. Would the Pirates go for that?

Eric A Longenhagen: Mejia is a good start. Aiken is a stay-away for me right now.

Eric A Longenhagen: Mejia and McKenzie I would do if I were PIT

danny mcgrew: hey Eric, what is the ceiling on NYY’s Tate? think the yanks can turn him around?

Eric A Longenhagen: In flux right now but if he can get to where he was during ST then he could be a #2. Didn’t look like that in AFL, though.

Ryne: Which state-side, low minors (AZL, GLC, etc) guys are you higher on than the industry consensus? Anyone jump out at instructs or someone you just have a “gut feeling” on? Thanks

Eric A Longenhagen: Michel Miliano

Greg: What is Kevin Newman’s upside?

Eric A Longenhagen: Err’day SS, 6 hit, 3 game power

Jim: How do you see the Colorado outfield shaking out? It seems to me Raimel Tapia is ready, but there’s nowhere for him to play.

Eric A Longenhagen: If Cutch sets the bar high for the OF market then I’d expect a trade.

Matt: Thoughts on the Thornburg trade to Boston? Seems a little light considering Thornburg was one of the top 10-12 relievers in baseball last year.

Eric A Longenhagen: Relievers are very volatile, wouldn’t trust year to year performance as gospel.

danny mcgrew: NYY system the deepest in mlb?

Eric A Longenhagen: Up top, yes. SD might have the most depth in general. NYY might have like 11 guys on my top 100

Ryne: Any revisions or additions you’d like to make on the lists you’ve made so far? Anyone’s chat comments change your opinion at all?

Eric A Longenhagen: Jared MIller from ARI would probably tick up half a grade. Otherwise, no.

Ethan: Is Jose DeLeon a top 15 prospect in baseball?

Eric A Longenhagen: No

Otis Redding: Does Ian Happ have any 2017 impact? Can he be a middle of the order bat?

Eric A Longenhagen: Might have 2017 impact for CHC in a trade but otherwise pretty much blocked unless there’s an injury and even then, Chicago’s versatility on the big club probably keeps him in Iowa.

Shawn Coleman: If you were another team talking with the braves, what pitching and hitting prospect would you be focused on in trying to acquire besides Albies, Allard, or Newcomb?

Eric A Longenhagen: Fired

Eric A Longenhagen: Fried, not fired.

Eric A Longenhagen: Freudian slip, there.

Eric A Longenhagen: Freudian, not Friedian

Ethan: Where would you rank Cody Bellinger as a prospect in all of baseball – top 20?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yup

Eric A Longenhagen: On track to be there based on the lists I’ve done so far.

James Madison: Who’s your favorite under-the-radar prospect in the Giants system? And your thoughts on Gio Brusa?

Eric A Longenhagen: Fabian. On Brusa: big power, lots of swing and miss, fringe athlete

Billy: What are the chances Giolito’s value is never this high again?

Eric A Longenhagen: After the year he had it’s possible his value won’t ever be this low again.

Zonk: For your top prospects series, what division are you visiting next? Nice work, BTW

Eric A Longenhagen: NL Central

Eric A Longenhagen: And thanks, I’ve been grinding.

AJ: Where does Jason Groome rank in terms of Red Sox Prospects and what do you think he projects as?

Eric A Longenhagen: Right there after Moncada, Benintendi, Devers, maybe a tick up or down after that depending on your personal taste.

Eric A Longenhagen: Groome or Kopech is a tough one for that list. I don’t look forward to deciding.

Zonk: Thanks for your piece on the White Sox prospects. Do you feel like they have needlessly rushed some prospects? Thinking of Fulmer most prominently, but Rodon and Anderson I felt could have benefited from additional time. And Hawkins was moved way too fast. Thoughts?

Eric A Longenhagen: They push guys, definitely and I do think at times it’s too much. Corey Zangari a glaring misstep this season. But Rodon and Anderson I didn’t mind. Both those guys were 2+ WAR players already this year and both are not close to being totally developed.

Jon: Which Atlanta pitching prospect has the best shot to reach his ceiling in your mind?

Eric A Longenhagen: Really good question. I assume you mean of the top arms and not some relief prospect that’s already there. I’ll say Kolby Allard.

Jonathan: Do all of the 40 FV prospects from one list belong on any of the other lists’ 40 FV sections? Or would a weak 40 from one list be just an HM for a stronger system’s list?

Eric A Longenhagen: 40s are 40s across lists

Mike: Reports say the Nats think they can acquire both Sale and Cutch. If they’re willing to empty the cupboard, do you think they have the prospects?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah but this would probably mean dealing Robles, Giolito, Lopez +, maybe Soto?

Eric A Longenhagen: They have the pieces to do it but it’d be scorched earth.

Erik: How do you go about projecting command? From your reports so far, it looks like you tie command projection to overall athleticism, which is a bit of a surprise. Stereotypically, one would imagine über-athletic pitchers to be somewhat wild fireballers, while command guys are viewed as less atheltic, more cerebral types. Is that stereotype completely off base?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think so, yes. Just look at the pitchers who were once wild and then threw strikes. They’re all good athletes. Colon, David Wells, David Price…all great athletes

Pat: I remember hearing you on the podcast talk about James Kaprielian’s early on showings at AFL–Do you think he’s back to where he was pre-injury? Was completely dominant at lower levels albeit a very small sample…

Eric A Longenhagen: Looked good in AFL. 92-96, slider, curve, change all play. I think he has at least a #3 ceiling.

Steve: Mitch Keller had a fantastic year. Would you say he is one of the biggest gainers up the prospects ranks? Does he have a chance to be on the same level is Glasnow/Taillon?

Eric A Longenhagen: Definitely popped up but not on the other guys’ level for me. Not yet, anyway.

Eric: Reports on Sixto Sanchez?

Eric A Longenhagen: Short but not small, mid-90s,, will touch higher. Pounds the zone. Mixed reports on the secondaries. Really good prospect, though.

Jeb: How has the latest CBA affected the next J2 class? Any broken deals, etc. or were teams non-committal, knowing that the CBA might derail their plans?

Eric A Longenhagen: Actually because of the CBA uncertainty and the helicopter parentage of MLB since the Red Sox issues this summer, teams don’t really have deals with kids yet.

Eric A Longenhagen: Next year’s class is kind of odd. Outfield-heavy, not as many SS up top.

Eric A Longenhagen: Julio Rodriguez is a name to know.

Eric A Longenhagen: Sebastian Grullon, too.

Brandon M: Do the Rangers have a strong enough system to make a major trade? It seems like their system has some depth, but not any real impact names

Eric A Longenhagen: If I were a GM and Daniels put Leodys Taveras on the table, I’m listening.

Drew: Acuna vs. Jahmai Jones vs. Verdugo? Do all stick in CF?

Eric A Longenhagen: Jones and Acuna might, Verdugo I doubt.

Jeb: Who’re the next few teams to get top prospect write-ups?

Eric A Longenhagen: KC, DET then onto NL Central

BOBBBY: Zips has a pretty high opinion of Candelario for next year, is he ready to be an everyday third baseman?

Eric A Longenhagen: 1B for me, low-end regular, 45 FV type of guyy

GSon: Brady Aiken had his FB velo back into the low 90’s by the fall.. does he regain his prospect status.. enough to overtake the best pitching prospect in MiLB, Tristan McKenzie?

Eric A Longenhagen: Wrote up Aiken for the Cleveland list last week. He was 87-90 in my fall look.

Ram : Not a big fan of the Melancon signing, do the Giants have any potential closers in the system other than Black and Rodolfo Martinez?

Eric A Longenhagen: Rodolfo’a velo was way down for me in AFL.

Eric A Longenhagen: Reyes Moronta is the other name for you

Eric A Longenhagen: Also, I like Okert quite a bit.

Trey: Connor Greene’s prospect relevance flamed out now, or still MLB potential there?

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s tough. That fastball arguably plays like a 7 but there’s not a whole lot else there right now.

Jeb: How different is your job at FG v. what it was at ESPN?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m not juggling a full time job with writing anymore

Toms Cruise: The Rays haven’t developed a great hitter in some time, will Willy Adames boom or bust?

Eric A Longenhagen: Boom

Kevin: Do you think Tyler O’Neill will be an above-average RF in MLB in 2-4 years?

Eric A Longenhagen: I keep dancing back and forth between a 50 and 55 for him. Your vision is realistic.

Toms Cruise: Will Derrick Fisher the Hou prospect have a better career than the NBA player? Will it be in Hou ’17 or ’18?

Eric A Longenhagen: Nope, ex-Laker Derek Fisher will have the better pro career.

Jason: What is the difference between Sixto Sanchez and Anderson Espinoza? Shouldn’t Sanchez be getting more love?

Eric A Longenhagen: Espinoza’s secondaries >

AJ: Giants going to be okay with a Williamson/Parker platoon? Can either of them be a solid big league player?

Eric A Longenhagen: I like the bigger half of the platoon there, not a Williamson fan.

Eric A Longenhagen: I think Parker is underrated. Huge raw power.

Bill: Do you think Andrew Moore turns into a Kyle Hendricks-lite SP or is he more likely to end up a #5 SP? The guy keeps a journal after every time he pitches…

Eric A Longenhagen: Not that type of pitcher. He’s a high-effort athlete, not the cold-hearted surgeon Hendricks is. I like Moore but realistically he’s a 4/5 at best.

Steve: Valentin or Kingery for Phillies 2nd baseman of the future?

Eric A Longenhagen: Kingery

groucho: What’s carson kelly’s upside? What’s his floor?

Eric A Longenhagen: Everyday catcher, everyday catcher.

Toms Cruise: Odds that TB OF Garrett Whitley can become a star?

Eric A Longenhagen: Low. 10-20%

Barnard: A.J. Reed for Lucas Giolito, who says no?

Eric A Longenhagen: WAS, if I take the call.

v2micca: I know it is probably way to early, but If you had to bet money, who is the first prospect from the 2016 Draft to break into the Majors?

Eric A Longenhagen: Burdi

Eric A Longenhagen: Okay everyone, I’ve gotta run to a meeting. I love you all, except Cistulli.

Eric A Longenhagen: See you next week. I’ll try to do a live-video chat this week from AZ to discuss Rule 5, etc.