Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat, Brine Your Bird

Eric A Longenhagen: Good morning from Tempe. We’ll likely hold firm the an hour today as I’ve got to get to the west valley for a Fall League game (Stephen Gonsalves throwing again for Surprise).

Eric A Longenhagen: A few things before I dive in, first…

Eric A Longenhagen: Rockies list went live today, it’s here: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/top-24-prospects-colorado-rockies

Eric A Longenhagen: Second, there are A LOT of hypothetical trade proposals in the queue. Sorry, but I’m not one for that kind of speculation so I’ll be avoiding those. Let’s begin.

Max: If you had to pick one Arizona Fall League player to take No. 1 overall in a draft, who would it be?

Eric A Longenhagen: If Moncada still counts even though he left with another injury of his, then him. If not I’m picking between Bellinger, Eloy Jimenez and Gleyber Torres.

John: Will Alfaro make the Phillies starting roster? Possible for a Sanchez-like rookie season?

Eric A Longenhagen: Sanchez’s rookie year was historic, so even if Alfaro does make the opening day roster (which I think is unlikely) I wouldn’t expect that kind of year.

Ryan: How optimistic should the Reds be about their future? Do they have prospects worth being excited about or should fans not hold out much hope? Seems as if compared to other rebuilds, theirs isn’t going particularly well

Eric A Longenhagen: I’ve disagreed with the type of pitcher CIN has targeted in recent year. Lots of guys I considered relievers. But they had a great draft and made some splashes in Latin America this year so it’s not all gloom and doom.

Nick: Read your Rockies prospect rankings – what do you think of Willie Abreu? Looks like power but maybe no contact.

Eric A Longenhagen: Yup, you’re on it. Love the power but none of the scouts I talked to thought he’d hit enough to profile and I thought the same when I saw him during instructs.

John: Alex Jackson or Ryan McMahon… any value left in either or are they both in the “bust” category

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m off of McMahon entirely but other scouts still like the power and the beauty in the swing. Jackson is a wait and see for me.

John: Berrios… ugh… say it ain’t so. Odds of making some solid progress in year 2?

Eric A Longenhagen: Just looked like a different pitcher last year than he did as a prospect. I have very little idea what to expect.

Twins Fan: Regarding Fernando Romero, Do you think he is a starter? What would you put his potential at?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m knee deep in the Twins list right now and he’s probably not a starter based on my current notes.

Eminor3rd: Can Carson Fulmer be a starter?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yes, but I think it’s more likely he ends up in relief.

Jack: What position does Franklin Barreto end up playing?

Eric A Longenhagen: CF for me

Jack: Can Frankie Montas stick in the rotation or is Oakland better off turning him into a power bullpen arm?

Eric A Longenhagen: I assume they’ll try him in the rotation because it makes sense to try to extract as much value as possible from that stuff but given the injuries and control issues he’s probably a reliever.

Nick: How come we don’t see more prospect for prospect trades when new GMs take over? Let’s say Klentak came in a didn’t like Crawford as much as, say, Brendan Rodgers, I made an offer to the Rockies.

Eric A Longenhagen: You alienate your scouts and front office members who acquired those players?

Nietsniew: I still love Garrett Whitley. I love his swing and bat speed. Is there hope?

Eric A Longenhagen: Did not look good during instructional league. Tools are still good and we’re talking about a raw bat from the northeast in his first full pro season, though.

Michael: After Billy McKinney dropped off this year, can he bounce back and be a top 100 prospect again?

Eric A Longenhagen: I don’t think so I put a 40 on him at the deadline.

Big Joe Mufferaw: Brine your Greg Bird? I know you’re not the biggest Bird fan, but isn’t his power and walks enough to make him a pretty safe prospect? (Plus the fact that he has hit MLB pitching very well).

Eric A Longenhagen: I think he’s an average regular.

Hans: The Padres are reportedly going to give Urias some time at short next season. Do you think he has a shot at sticking?

Eric A Longenhagen: Nope.

JH: As a passive consumer of prospect news, instructional leagues seem like a total black box, but a potential font of information. Do you see any effort to open up instructs more broadly in the coming years? For instance, I know teams keep numbers on how their guys perform but don’t make them public (similar to how the Arizona League was circa 2002). Do you see any value in making that information more widely available?

Eric A Longenhagen: If anything I think orgs will start guarding their prospects more during the fall.

MeDeKe: Good morning, Eric. I’ll wait to see your full report when you get to the NL East division, but is Victor Robles the next end-all be-all prospect, or simply a projectable above-average player? Much thanks!

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s a potential start, one of the top 15 prospects in baseball I’d say.

Natsurally: When teams are looking at prospects, how much more or less is a high floor worth than a high ceiling?

Eric A Longenhagen: Depends on the team’s situation and the scout/executive in question. Some would argue high-ceiling players are of more significant importance for low-budget teams because they can’t buy that kind of player on the open market. Others would say that team needs a more certain ROI and a high floor player is more valuable.

Eric A Longenhagen: I like ceiling.

Eric A Longenhagen: (Cameron cringes)

Dave: How much of Francisco Mejia’s outlook is influenced by his hit streak? If he had one hit-less game in that time, would he still be considered as high of a prospect as he is?

Eric A Longenhagen: Maybe a little bit, but we’re still talking about a twitchy catcher with plus bat speed and a 7 arm regardless of the streak.

Bob: What do you think Matt Strahm’s full potential is?

Eric A Longenhagen: #3/4 type of arm if everything comes together. Quite good.

John: What do you think Ryan O’Hearn could become?

Eric A Longenhagen: Average everyday first baseman.

Dumpster Fiers: Will Alex Meyer live up to his once top prospect ranking in LAA?

Eric A Longenhagen: I do not. Could do well in relief, though.

Erik: One thing I’ve learned from reading your reports is that a player with an initially unimpressive-looking report of a bunch of 50s and 55s is actually an excellent prospect, especially if one of those 55s is game power and the player plays an up-the-middle defensive position (like Brendan Rogers). Can you give some examples of proven major leaguers who are 50-55 across the board to have in mind when thinking about that sort of prospect?

Eric A Longenhagen: Maybe Brandon Belt, Logan Forsythe, Nick Gordon is that kind of prospect but with less power than Rodgers. Denard Span.

Erik: Roughly how many 80-grade tools should we expect to see across all your prospect write-ups? Something like max one or two per tool? Are there some tools where we should definitely expect no 80s? I’m thinking that projecting 80 command in particular would be extremely unlikely.

Eric A Longenhagen: Probably a dozen or so when all is said and done, especially for power, arm and speed from hitters and fastballs from the arms.

Toki: What’s Cody Bellinger looking like? He going to be a solid replacement for Gonzo in the future? What type of typical production do you envision for him?

Eric A Longenhagen: Potential star, full report here: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/top-21-prospects-los-angeles-dodgers/

Lame puns about Prices and Sales: What does the development track look like for a 16 year old international signing like Kevin Maitan? What type of leagues are they playing in? When can they expect to progress to MiLB in the US?

Eric A Longenhagen: They’re not doing anything other than working out in Latin America when they sign. Many of them come to the states from Fall Instructional League and then go back for the winter. The next spring they’re here and are usually assigned to a rookie-level affiliate, usually at the team’s spring training complex where they can be kept close to team facilities while they assimilate to an entirely new culture and work on baseball. This is where you start to see more variation in development. Some kids instill confidence in the org that they’re ready to be playing in a tougher league and be on their own out in the world a little more. Those guys get promoted to the APPY or NW Leagues mid to late summer. Others never leave the complex.

Bob: Harrison Bader is playing really well in the AFL. Can we expect him to crack the top 50, or even top 20 rankings this year?

Eric A Longenhagen: Far too rich for me, sorry.

Nick: Which Pirates infielder do you prefer, Hayes or Newman?

Eric A Longenhagen: Actually, based on early reports it might be Cole tucker.

greg: Do you feel like Aristides Aquino will start showing up on some top 100 lists this winter?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yes, monster raw power and raked all year.

Bork: Any idea why Gurriel Jr signed for so cheap?

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s not that good.

Halos: What’s your take on the last 2 Angels first rounders, Taylor Ward and Matt Thaiss.

Eric A Longenhagen: Both are interesting prospects but I considered both to be overdrafts. I’ve had multiple scouts put org grades on Ward here in Fall League.

Big Joe Mufferaw: Do you see Clint Frazier’s upside as more 280-20 HR or 260-30HR?

Eric A Longenhagen: Probably smack in the middle of those.

Dock Ellis: Having a disagreement with a fellow Phillies fan. He argued that the Phillies system is “stacked” with pitching prospects. I argued that only Sixto and Kilome have decent ceilings and they’re not even near AA. Can you settle this for me?

Eric A Longenhagen: I wouldn’t say “stacked” but rather “intriguing”.

Matt: Who would you rather have long term, Ozzy Albies or Travis Demeritte?

Eric A Longenhagen: Albies, not close.

Philip: Any guys on back fields standout for Padres that are bit off radar?

Eric A Longenhagen: 10,000 here words for you, sir. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/prospect-reports-san-diego-padres/

YOAT: Not sure if this is easy to respond to in a chat but might be an interesting post actually. How do you keep all your scouting info organized?

Eric A Longenhagen: I have some on-paper notes, some things I keep in spreadsheets and, honestly, when I tweet about pitcher velos that’s more for me to access at any given time than it is for readers. I can search “longenhagen brusdar graterol” from wherever I am and know how hard a guy threw on a given date.

Michael: Liked your piece on the Rockies farm. Clearly, they have quite a few hard throwing arms. Is this a result of aggressive drafting of guys who might profile best in Coors? Will it continue with future drafts?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think it’s less an org philosophy and more a product of the increased velo we’re seeing across world baseball.

Cole: What’s the current outlook on Jorge Lopez? Another year in the minors no doubt, but starter/reliever? Bust or rebound?

Eric A Longenhagen: Stuff is so tantalizing but he just can’t keep that delivery together.

Dude Abides: Please provide CV/FV grades for these alternative main dishes: Turducken, Tofurkey, fish.

Eric A Longenhagen: Haven’t done turducken, so I’ll leave that to John Madden for evaluation. My wife doesn’t eat meat and, I swear to you, her go-to is called a “Celebration Log” and it is horrifying. 20. Turkey or nothing for me.

Andrew: How excited should the Mets be about Amed Rosario?

Eric A Longenhagen: Somewhere between “Loving embrace” and “Hard Day’s Night Opening Scene”

Loose Seal: Your FV on Hoffman went from 65 in August to 55 today; did he really look that underwhelming in his MLB stint.

Eric A Longenhagen: He did, it was a huge bummer. But a 55 is still an above average starter.

The Decadent Moose: I dry-brine the bird. Too much added moisture screws with the texture of the meat.

As far as baseball, it there a specific PA/IP threshold for the prospects list. i.e. David Dahl’s 200 PAs or is it more about preponderance of available information and witnesses as to why he’s not profiled?

Eric A Longenhagen: I use rookie eligibility, so 130 PAs, 50 IP, etc..

Dude Abides: Do you prefer Kiriloff or Rutherford and why?

Eric A Longenhagen: Rutherford. More confidence in the bat.

Matt: Has the shine waned for the Gilbert Lara star?

Eric A Longenhagen: I saw him whack the hell out of some balls late in instrux for the first time since early in the 2015 AZL. I welcomed it and remain hopeful, if skeptical.

Dude Abides: Is there any structure to which prospect lists you are releasing?

Eric A Longenhagen: Going by division.

GSon: Thanks for having this chat.. While this may be jumping the gun, does Tristan McKenzie supplant Bradley Zimmer as the Indians # 1 prospect.. already or by mid season?

Eric A Longenhagen: Zimmer has big power, can play center field and has reached the upper levels. That’s going to be tough to put beneath McKenzie as much as I love him and worry about Zimmer’s swing and miss.

DN: Is the order you do the list set/posted somewhere?

Eric A Longenhagen: Nope

soaktherich: Is Trey Ball still salvageable as a pitcher? Is it possible to start him over as an OF?

Eric A Longenhagen: Low-90s, average cutter and curveball. I’d let him continue to pitch, stuff isn’t bad.

Hank: CF of the future in Colorado: David Dahl or Raimel Tapia? Does Dahl profile better than Tapia at a corner?

Eric A Longenhagen: Dahl.

Robert: Besides Jahmai Jones, are there any Angels recent draftees you like?

Eric A Longenhagen: Chris Rodriguez

Bobby Newport: I know you probably haven’t given much thought to your top 100 list just yet but how many 2016 draft guys do you think you’ll put on the list?

Eric A Longenhagen: Probably 6-8

Kane: Would you say at this point Ronald Acuna is a top-100 caliber prospect?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yes

Brian: Think you are the high guy on pedro gonzalez or is No. 7 not that high?

Eric A Longenhagen: Wouldn’t surprise me if I was. That’s the kind of player I like.

Dock Ellis: Why has Willans Astudo (sp?) never given a chance in the MLB? His contact rate seems historic.

Eric A Longenhagen: His walk rates are historically low and he has no position. He’s a treasure but not a big leaguer.

Larry: Has anything in Arizona changed your mind on Travis Demeritte’s offensive potential?

Eric A Longenhagen: Nope. Still has big raw power, still swings at everything.

MeDeKe: Follow up to Reds rebuild question – while many of their current SP targets are likely RPs (Iglesias, Lorenzen, even Finnegan), Cody Reed still projects as an above-average SP going forward, yes? Thanks!

Eric A Longenhagen: Only Reed does, in my opinion. All the others are clear relievers for me, Reeds still has a chance to start.

HugoZ: How come nobody’s still yapping about Tebow?

Eric A Longenhagen: There’s constantly newer shit to fixate on or whine about.

Eric A Longenhagen: Also, he’s not good. If he were hitting even .280 here it’d still be a zoo.

soaktherich: When you see Chris Mitchell’s comp lists, do you recognize 0.0 WAR guys on there with the occasional tinge of melancholy?

Eric A Longenhagen: Nope. Those are my favorite.

soaktherich: It seems like most relievers are essentially recycled starters. Does any team regularly acquire guys specifically to be relievers (ceiling = closer, of course) through the draft or international signings? Along those lines, what rounds are top college closers drafted in?

Eric A Longenhagen: Team will target relief prospects they like late and a lot of those guys are identified by quantitative analysis in concert with reports.

Dave ptitegrainecameron: Why are you low on Miguel Adujar? Other reports love him bat speed, defense and arm.

Eric A Longenhagen: I was wrong about the bat speed in June, it’s fine. I was seeing swing length. Definite 7 future arm, makes some great plays at 3B but boots some easy ones. I just don’t know how much he’s going to hit. Poor ABs here in AFL, length in the swing is troublesome. Talented, though.

Andrew: Everyone looks for pitchers who could be the next Arrieta — change of scenery and approach unlocking a top-flight SP. But I think teams really be looking more for the next deGrom — unspectacular in the minors but successful in the majors. Who do you think would fit that category? Unheralded MiLB guy who could achieve surprising MLB success?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m probably the wrong guy to ask this question to since, when I see a prospect who I think will have success in the big leagues, I’m the writer heralding them.

Jack Law: Tyler Nevin – what the heck? Missed an entire year to a hammy strain?

Eric A Longenhagen: According to the org, yes.

Bridgeport Justin: How has Zach Collins looked, or other White Sox prospects in the AFL?

Eric A Longenhagen: Not good but it’s been a long year for that guy. College ball starts in February (actual games, not ST) so he’s probably gassed.

Jack Law: Jonathan Piron anything?

Eric A Longenhagen: I asked on him but was told the Pioneer League heavily inflated the statline.

Jack Law: Surprised Carrizales wasn’t anywhere on your Rockies list.

Eric A Longenhagen: 7 run but the best rpojection I got from anyone on him was a 4th outfielder.

soaktherich: How does Benintendi compare to JBJr in terms of CF defense? How about overall upside?

Eric A Longenhagen: Bradley is the better defender, Benintendi overall a better player.

Adam: The Padres obviously had an impressive opening to International Free Agency, with many pundits saying it was only the beginning. Now, with Lourdes Gourriel and others being signed by other teams, are there any more desireable players of note or is this essentially the entire class?

Eric A Longenhagen: Norge Ruiz might sign soon. Cionel Perez is back out there after Houston voided his deal but that’s probably not a great sign for his prospects.

The Cincinnati Kid: Is your Brendan Rodgers ETA, or any of the ETAs, based on your opinion, the Rockies ideas/beliefs on promotions, or how scouts believe it will take him to get promoted? Thanks for the first look at teams

Eric A Longenhagen: Purely educated guessing on my part. Far too many external variables impact debuts to project them accurately.

J: Mike Nikorak has very impressive stuff, what caused his struggles last yea

Eric A Longenhagen: His stuff went way backward.

ohioastrosfan: Obviously teams all have their own proprietary models they use to evaluate prospects. Based on your experience in the industry, how close are they to each other and to fangraphs models?

Eric A Longenhagen: There is more variability than the public realizes.

Philbert: Thoughts on Anthony Alford? After struggling through some injuries early on, he’s been hitting extremely well again since July, and the power seems to have shown up, too.

Eric A Longenhagen: 70 runner, maybe future 70 raw, has a bit of a late bloomer profile because of football. I’ll take that guy.

ohioastrosfan: Martes has been a bit underwhelming in the AFL, do you still rank him higher than David Paulino?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’ve never ranked either of them but Paulino certainly looks better than Martes right now.

Guest: In his player capsule Willie Calhoun is listed at 5’9″ and 177 but in the write up it says 5’6″ and 200, so how big is this dude?

Eric A Longenhagen: https://www.google.com/search?q=willie+calhoun+2016&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwi495TlrKvQAhVBllQKHWqPB3YQ_AUICSgC&biw=1455&bih=722

Eric A Longenhagen: Klaw stood next to him at the Futures Game during BP. Calhoun is about 5’6.

Tonti: Peak Austin Meadows slash line? Does his injury history scare you at all?

Eric A Longenhagen: .290/.370/.490, yes.

The Cincinnati Kid: Rodgers went from a 65 last year to a 60 this year….is that just a difference of opinion between you and Farnsworth? Maybe a better way to ask is: What FV did you have on Rodgers in November 2015?

Eric A Longenhagen: Probably just splitting hairs, honestly. 65 is more of a way to create some separation between all the 60s.

Lure of the Animal: Are you a St. Joe’s alum? I recall you dropping a Dr. Jack reference in a recent chat.

Eric A Longenhagen: I am. Class of 2011.

Bobby Hill: What do you think of Gavin Cecchini’s throwing issues? How about the bat?

Eric A Longenhagen: Throwing issues kill chances of playing SS if they persist. I like the bat to ball, no power.

Jon: Corey Ray, Lewis Brinson and Trent Clark. How good could this OF be for the Brewers in a few years?

Eric A Longenhagen: Even better than that if Monte Harrison’s tools play consistently.

Daniel: So, how much do you change your evaluation of a prospect after a pretty short stint in the majors? How long do you give them to ‘adjust’ before you start to worry?

Eric A Longenhagen: Unless the stuff or tools go way up or down inexplicably I think patience is important. Guys who make seamless transitions are exceptionally rare.

peachycream : Is German Marquez a starter for the Rockies in 2017? please rank him against C.Kuhl, J.Cotton, Y.Mendez. Thanks.

Eric A Longenhagen: I’d have him ahead of everyone but Mendez and I love Cotton.

SSS: Who has more value right now, Urias or Sale?

Eric A Longenhagen: Sale has been an Ace, let me repeat that because I think it’s the first time I’ve used it in a chat since I was hired, ACE for years now. I know the contract situation makes it a more complex equation, though.

Happy: Is Robert Gsellman in the same tier as Jose De Leon?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think that’s about right, yes.

Richy: What can you tell me about desmond Lindsay? Potential breakout candidate who can rise up lists quickly?

Eric A Longenhagen: Mature body but the tools are good and he was undervalued pre-draft because of injury. Already looks like a bit of a steal.

The other Kyle: Any strong feelings on Christin Stewart or Mike Gerber? With JD likely on the way out, what can Tigers expect from their OF prospects?

Eric A Longenhagen: I like Gerber but had concerns about him vs LHP in AFL. Think the glove might be good enough to play him everyday, and live with him vs LHP. Stewart is going to swing and miss a ton but the power probably makes up for the ills there, even if he’s just an average regular.

Another Bill: What’s the highest hit tool grade you have ever given a prospect pre-majors? Who was it?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’ve put 7s on several prospects. Christian Arroyo and Jesse Winker come to mind.

Eric A Longenhagen: Aaand I went way over my time. I need to hustle west for the afternoon AFL game. Everyone have a wonderful week.