Watching the ebbs and flows of Christian Yelich’s career has been very interesting. From 2018 to 2019, he was one of the best players in baseball, winning the NL MVP in 2018 and placing second in the voting the following year. He was sending balls to the moon like he never had before (some of that might have owed to the livelier ball, but Yelich also hit the ball very hard those years, and continues to). Then from 2020 to 2022, he was just an average dude. He had a 108 wRC+ over that span, swatting just 35 home runs and accruing 4.4 total WAR.

Typically, I’d say that a player like Yelich already has a blueprint for success. Faced with a few down seasons, his focus should be on regaining the traits that had served him so well previously. However, a lot of what we know about the Brewers outfielder needs to be thrown out the window. This is a different player from the one we saw during Yelich’s MVP run, and he’s also a different player from the one we’ve watched the last two and a half years. Instead of figuring out how he could get back to his old self, Yelich seems to have decided to blend all of his previous years together to create a new version. And with a 129 wRC+ and 3.6 WAR so far this season, Yelich has shown he can still be a star player — it just looks different. Read the rest of this entry »

This might sound familiar, but Carlos Santana has been traded to a playoff contender. After signing a one-year deal with the Pirates in the offseason, he has been sent to the Brewers to help reinforce the second-worst offense in the National League (88 wRC+). In return, the Pirates will get back teenage shortstop Jhonny Severino, an international free agent who signed for $1.2 million last summer and only has 60 professional games under his belt.

At this late point in Santana’s career, he has established himself as a reliable, average player, playing in 94 games, accumulating 393 plate appearances, and posting a 99 wRC+ this season after a 102 mark last season. The production comes through in a slightly different way, but he has a 99 wRC+ from the left side and a 100 wRC+ from the right side. Similarly, he is a reliable defender; so far, he sits at +2 OAA with a 0% success rate added. Across the board, this is an average dude.

We know who Santana is. Santana knows who he is. The Brewers know who he is. That isn’t super sexy, but the Brewers do not need sexy at first base; competence is a good first step for them. In Jay Jaffe’s Replacement Level Killers series, they topped the list at first base; no team has gotten less production at the position. Santana has accumulated 1.0 WAR on the year, so it’s not as if he is a huge difference maker, but he can provide a necessary stability as Milwaukee tries to hold on to first place in the NL Central.

As for the Pirates’ side of things: Severino doesn’t have much professional experience. This year, he has only played 12 games with 52 plate appearances in the complex league thanks to a sprained left wrist. In terms of his profile, he is a big, projectable infielder who most likely fits at third base long-term but is currently at shortstop. Overall, he has a 40 Future Value and slots in at 23rd on the Pirates list in the same tier as prospects like Dariel Lopez and major leaguers such as Nick Gonzales.

There is upside in Severino’s power, which looks like it will work to all fields. At 18 years old, he is already showing legitimate pop. There is also downside in the hit tool, though. From the little that we’ve seen, he is running a 30-grade chase rate, and his 1% walk rate is slightly concerning. But that could improve with more time; for example, he ran a 7% walk rate in 198 plate appearances last year.

To round this out, let’s look some of Severino’s at-bats:

There are a lot of lower body movements happening, and some stepping in the bucket. Maintaining connection to the ground throughout your swing is a very important part of the learning process of hitting. As you grow into strength, your effort levels to produce power become more controlled. That will be a focus for Severino as he develops and eventually moves out of the complex league. There are multiple swings here where his first move is his lead hip drifting toward third base. Sometimes he counters his stepping in the bucket with a scissor kick to even things out, but by then he already lost his hands. On the other hand, there are some swings here with serious thump (2:15 is a great example). The rotational power is clearly there; it will just be a balancing act for Severino as he ages and faces better competition.

Teams like the Pirates bring on players like Santana for a few reasons, but one of them is hoping he plays well enough to garner a return like this at the trade deadline. There is no guarantee that Severino will help the next good Pirates club, but in a deal like this, all you want is an opportunity to have something to work with, and that’s exactly what they got. For the Brewers, it shores up what has been a significant hole as they make a playoff push.

I am a big fan of trading for reinforcements well ahead of the trade deadline. If you can add a piece that will make even a small difference, then do it early if the deal makes sense. That is exactly what the Orioles have done in acquiring Shintaro Fujinami from the A’s, adding to what was already a league-best bullpen led by Félix Bautista and Yennier Cano. In return, Baltimore sent 26-year-old prospect Easton Lucas to Oakland.

Before jumping into Fujinami’s profile and potential, let’s learn a little about Lucas. He initially came to Baltimore’s system from Miami in a trade for veteran infielder Jonathan Villar in December 2019. Since 2021, he has worked his way from High-A to Triple-A as a reliever, peaking at 56.2 innings last season. But after looking the best he has in his career with a 2.66 FIP and 38.7 K% to start the year in Double-A, he’s struggled after stepping up to Triple-A, with a 7.31 FIP and 4.61 ERA in 13 innings.

Even with these recent struggles, there is reason to believe Lucas can be a legitimate middle reliever in the big leagues. Per Eric Longenhagen, his average fastball velocity has jumped significantly, from 90.7 mph to 94.5. He also utilizes two slow breaking balls: a slider that was in the high-70s, and a curve that was in the mid-70s. But like his fastball, those pitches have seen a velocity jump as well; the curve has turned into a low-80s slider, and the old slider has tightened up to become a high-80s cutter. That is essentially a 10-tick bump in both breaking balls. With these changes, Lucas has also faded his changeup usage. Long story short, he is now a four-seamer/cutter/slider guy with a significant stuff boost, giving him more of a shot to be a big leaguer.

Let’s pivot back to Baltimore’s side of things. On the surface, Fujinami has been one of the worst pitchers in baseball this season. He began the year as a starter and allowed 24 earned runs in under 15 innings, walking virtually everyone he faced. He has been much better since moving to the bullpen, posting a 3.90 FIP in 34.1 innings, but much of that performance is very recent. In May and June, he still had a FIP over 4.00 with a BB% north of 10.

After back-to-back rough performances at the end of June against the Blue Jays and Yankees, Fujinami changed his pitch mix, and it seems as if he has settled in as a four-seamer/splitter pitcher. He used his cutter a few times in a recent appearance, but it’s clear that his plan is to use a two-pitch mix. How has that worked out? Let’s look at the four-seamer swinging-strike leaders in July:

Obviously the sample size here isn’t anything significant, but this bump deserves attention. Despite consistent four-seamer usage — between the high-50s and low-60s — Fujinami’s four-seamer swinging-strike rate hadn’t broken 26% in any month. The pitch wasn’t effective, but it has become a weapon in the last few weeks.

As I already mentioned, Fujinami has used a two-pitch mix of late, but how have the fastball and splitter adapted since his recent surge? (I didn’t include his velocity increase between these two time periods because that is largely due to him no longer starting; his fastball jumped two ticks and his splitter jumped one as a reliever.)

At 93.3 mph, nobody throws a splitter harder than Fujinami other than Jhoan Duran. On top of that, you can see some concrete changes in the pitch’s shape to make it play better with the four-seamer. Most interestingly, the 1:47 tilt on the pitch has moved closer to the four-seamer’s movement. That complicates things for hitters: if Fujinami is throwing both pitches out of similar release points with indistinguishable tilt differences, hitters are going to have trouble either getting their barrel on the splitter or catching up to the heater. The high velocity combination doesn’t give you much wiggle room to figure out where each pitch is headed.

Let’s see what this looks like in practice. Here is an at-bat from last week against Alex Kirilloff:

Pitch 1 (0-0, four-seamer)

Pitch 2 (0-1, splitter)

Pitch 3 (0-2, splitter)

Pitch 4 (0-2, four-seamer)

From Fujinami’s perspective, it doesn’t get any better than this. Kirilloff got his best pitch to hit in the 0–0 count and passed it up. After that, he had no chance. The 0–1 splitter is a nice example of how even a little bit of difference in movement and location can affect a hitter’s swing. The vertical orientation of the splitter was enough for Kirilloff to pull off and chop a foul ball. On the following pitch, Fujinami showed how he can induce a little more horizontal break than a hitter would expect from his release point. It’s not overwhelming, but it’s enough to fool Kirilloff and force an emergency hack. Then, on the final pitch, he blew Kirilloff away with triple digits above the zone. This is perfect execution and sequencing, and it’s exactly what the Orioles will be looking for.

Baltimore has developed a great reputation when it comes to helping relievers get the most out of their stuff and body. If anybody is equipped to help a high-octane reliever with a four-seamer/splitter combination, it’s the Orioles. I wouldn’t be surprised if Fujinami ends up making a slight tweak or two upon his arrival, but I’m confident that would be focused on propping up the two-pitch mix that he has effectively established in the last couple of weeks.

I experience baseball in many different forms. Writing is obviously one of them. Watching (both in person and on television) is another. Playing doesn’t happen as much as I’d like to, but it’s still one of them. The last one, which has become the most accessible to me, is through data: performance, expected stats, projections, etc. Data serves as a conversation starter or a thought provoker for me, and I rely on it heavily in my writing to tell the story of a player’s triumphs or struggles, especially Statcast data.

When working with Statcast information, it’s important to understand the inputs that create the data points. For example, I know that xwOBA is formulated using a combination of exit velocity and launch angle (and sometimes sprint speed). Perhaps it would be helpful if there were more inputs such as batted ball spin or spray angle, or perhaps it would complicate things. But what is important is that I know those are not included in the formulation — knowledge that I can use when assessing players for whom those inputs could be statistically important. I’m specifically thinking of the profiles of Isaac Paredes and Cody Bellinger.

Neither Paredes nor Bellinger have big power in terms of raw exit velocity, and neither is a batting average king (although Bellinger is over .300 at this moment in time). Instead, they rely on consistent contact to the pull side in the air to make up for their lack of raw power. I have an idea in my head of what a good hitter is. One of my most general criteria is the ability to hit the ball consistently hard, but it’s important to leave wiggle room there so you don’t exclude the edge cases, like Bellinger and Paredes. Both are below the 20th percentile in terms of average exit velocity and below the 10th percentile in HardHit%, but both have ISOs over .200 with double-digit home runs and doubles. That’s unusual, but it brings me back to stressing the importance of spray angle for a certain group of hitters. Read the rest of this entry »

Having reached the post–All-Star break world, you may find yourself perusing various stat leaderboards trying to get a grip of who has performed to, above or below expectations. I consider myself a relatively positive person, so when somebody isn’t performing to par, I like to explore their profile in search of a hint of their previous self, or in the case of a prospect, their best future self.

For this piece, I’m going to dive into a group of these players. The criteria aren’t too strict; I’m generally looking for players who are roughly 15 points or more of wRC+ below their preseason ZiPS projection. Other than that, there is some combination of batted ball data, mechanics, and a splash of subjectivity affecting my choices. With that said, let’s jump into it, starting with a former top five prospect. Read the rest of this entry »

Late-career resurgences from former stars are fascinating to me. This is a terribly difficult game even when you are at your peak strength and athleticism; as your body declines, it only gets more difficult. Some are just unable to adjust to new circumstances, including former stars. But every now and then, you have a hitter who can make the right tweaks to adapt to their new body and changed environment. There are only a handful who do that every year; this season, Evan Longoria is one of them.

After an injury-laden 2022, the future was murky for Longoria. Last year, he went on the IL for hand surgery, an oblique strain, and a hamstring strain, and ultimately missed the last week of the season after taking a 100-mph line drive off the thumb, leading to a fracture. He had no intentions of retiring before or after the fracture, though; it was only a bump in the road that his potential new team would have to consider, since the Giants did not exercise his club option. He ended up signing a one-year, $4 million dollar deal with the Diamondbacks, where he has enjoyed his best offensive season since 2016 by wRC+ and xwOBA. It comes in a limited sample and strategic playing time from Torey Lovullo, but it’s far from a fluke. Longoria is impacting the ball as well as he ever has in the Statcast era. Here is a table detailing his jump in performance and quality of contact relative to recent seasons:

Every single one of these metrics is a personal high for Longoria since 2015, and some by a wide margin, which is pretty remarkable for a player coming off so many injuries in the back half of their 30s. His HardHit% is fifth in the league among hitters with at least 50 batted balls, putting him in between Juan Soto and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. on that list. Pair that with great consistency in hitting the ball between eight and 32 degrees, and you have yourself an xwOBACON over .500 — also good for fifth in all of baseball among hitters with at least 100 plate appearances. Read the rest of this entry »

I’ve long been a staunch supporter of Ketel Marte. Switch-hitters with short levers are my personal favorite archetype. When you can produce 90th-percentile max exit velocity from both sides of the plate with only mid-teens strikeout rates, you’ll have my attention each and every night. It’s not always the case that switch-hitters have two contrasting swings, but it is for Marte. He is a natural right-handed hitter, which has played out clearly in his performance over the years, but every now and then, everything clicks on both sides of the plate. In fact, since his breakout 2019 season, he has been an above-average hitter from the left side every other year. But this season, he has taken off unlike ever before.

Throughout Marte’s career, there has been a stark difference in his power from the right side versus his left side. Despite being powerful in terms of exit velocity from both sides, he has always been better at creating pull side lift with his natural right-handed swing. That has resulted in a career ISO of .215 as a righty and .155 as a lefty. But like I said, things are clicking for him as a righty this year.

Before diving into the deep details, let’s look at his splits each year since the 2019 breakout:

There is still fluctuation, but in general, Marte is consistently well above average from the right-handed side. Last year was his worst mark since his breakout, and he was still a 125 wRC+ hitter. But with the more advantageous side of the platoon being the left side, his overall production is highly dependent on how he performs when facing right-handed pitching. So for the rest of this piece, I want to shift my focus to that side. This is the best Marte has been as a lefty since 2019, and that warrants an investigation on what exactly he has done to get here. Read the rest of this entry »

It’s not crazy to see someone make the jump from a great reliever to an elite reliever. Every year, there are a handful of stellar relief seasons that we simply just did not see coming. I was a fan of Alexis Díaz after his stellar 2022 debut (1.84 ERA, 3.32 FIP, 32.5 K%), but I did not expect him to be this dominant, as he’s taken big steps forward in more or less every stat. What’s behind it?

When it comes to pitching development, it’s important to be unique; you don’t want to look like or throw like anybody else. If you’re going to be elite, you must find what makes you special and lean into it. For Díaz, his outlier skill is his ability to release the ball closer to the plate than anybody in the world from an unorthodox angle. He doesn’t have overwhelming velocity, yet his four-seamer is one of the best in the game, and the extension is a huge reason for it. It’s as if the ball is being shot at you from a little league distance by a softball pitching machine.

Here’s how Díaz’s release point compares to other pitchers with comparable extension:

Focusing first on release point, you’ll see that none of the other four pitchers in this small cohort gets their arm as low as the Reds closer. Combine this with top-tier extension and consistently being up in the zone, and you have the explanation for how Díaz’s Vertical Approach Angle (VAA) is so flat compared to those on this list. Horizontally speaking, only Jordan Romano is as far toward the third baseline, but Díaz’s low slot arm angle is very different for hitters compared to Romano’s. In terms of spin axis, only Devin Williams is somewhat close to Díaz. The other three pitchers are more over the top. From a pitch design perspective, that would be ideal for building the perfect four-seamer, but as you can see, being different is exactly how Díaz has been successful. Read the rest of this entry »

Pitching is complicated. There are so many layers to it, including mechanics, sequencing, proprioception, supination/pronation… the list goes on and on. Depending on a player’s personality and knack for including analytical information in their learning and development process, digesting this information can be a battle. Over the years, we’ve seen Sonny Gray progress through this experience with multiple teams; now in Minnesota, it seems like he is hitting his peak. As David Laurila wrote, Sonny Gray is evolving as a pitcher.

That interview that David conducted with Gray is a must read. Having the player’s perspective on how they’ve thought through their own changes and development experience helps gives direction to an analyst, and it’s clear in that interview that Gray’s goal is to have a pitch that moves in almost any direction. As somebody who doesn’t have overwhelming fastball velocity (16th percentile), it’s crucial that he stays unpredictable and deceptive. That hasn’t been a problem for him in the past, but this year he has leveled up his diversification. Below is a plot of his pitch movement chart in 2023 (top) versus 2022 (bottom):

Last season, there were essentially two tiers of separation: fastballs in one area, breaking balls in another. For the most part, there isn’t much negative blending happening within either pitch group. The two-seamer has distinct horizontal separation from the four-seamer, and the curveball has vertical separation from the sweeper. The horizontal distribution of the sweeper is on the tail ends of the curveball; Gray manipulated the pitch to have more or less sweep than the curveball to ensure that separation. This year, he has taken his 2022 arsenal, improved upon it, and added two more effective pitches in the cutter and changeup.

In this interview with Rob Friedman, Gray goes into deep detail about the shape of each of his pitches and why he thought it would be valuable to include two new ones, particularly the cutter, in his repertoire, and about the value of his cutter serving as an in-between for the two fastballs and two breaking balls. From the hitter’s point of view, doing that complicates attacking or locking in on one zone or speed. If you’re a left-handed hitter sitting on a four-seam fastball on the inner third, a cutter could move in and jam your barrel or, if it has a little more vertical depth, slide right under. The same idea can be applied for expecting breaking balls; the cutter can stay up and freeze you instead of having the level of drop or sweep of a curveball or sweeper. In addition, the cutter velocity is just a few ticks faster than the two breaking balls and a few ticks slower than the two fastballs.

Gray has has done almost everything possible to assure he maintains deception. His release points are consistent. He has multiple layers of movement both vertically and horizontally. He can vary velocity and movement within a given pitch. If you were to build a pitcher who doesn’t have great velocity but can spin the heck out of the ball, this is a darn good blueprint.

It’s important to see exactly how Gray uses these pitches within the context of an at-bat. You can have all this movement and velocity diversity, but you still need to command each pitch and sequence correctly. I’ll start with an at-bat against a right-handed hitter.

Pitch 1 (0-0 count, four-seamer)

Pitch 2 (0-1 count, cutter)

Pitch 3 (0-2 count, curveball)

Pitch 4 (0-2 count, sweeper)

Pitch 5 (1-2 count, sweeper)

Gray has gotten his cutter usage up to 17.6% on the year; you should expect to see it only one or two times in an at-bat. But this at-bat against Yan Gomes is a perfect example of how the pitch allows him to progress with a four-seamer through to a sweeper. Gomes didn’t pull the trigger on the upper third four-seamer but did on a cutter that had enough separation to miss his barrel. Gray followed up with a curveball out of the same tunnel, and Gomes chopped it on the ground for a foul ball.

At this point, Gomes had failed to differentiate his swing enough to get his barrel to any of these pitches, and Gray still had the sweeper in his back pocket. The first he threw was backed up out of the zone, but the second was placed in the same tunnel as the other three pitches, and Gomes swung too early on it. Again, the cutter isn’t the main weapon here; it’s another layer to keep Gomes guessing.

Now, here is an example of how Gray used the pitch against a lefty:

Pitch 1 (0-0 count, curveball)

Pitch 2 (1-0 count, cutter)

Pitch 3 (1-1 count, curveball)

Pitch 4 (1-2 count, two-seamer)

This is one of my favorite sequences from any pitcher all year. After starting with a curveball out of the zone against Brandon Belt, Gray followed up with a cutter that stayed up. Belt was clearly prepared for a breaking ball of some sort based on his timing and swing path, but the cutter got above his barrel. Because Gray was able to keep the pitch in the zone, Belt’s eye level was changed, leading to him chasing the next curveball below the zone. With a 1–2 count and two bad swings from Belt, Gray could’ve gone in multiple directions but ultimately opted for a front-door running two-seamer at the knees. Why? Because Belt had showed Gray that his swing was geared for middle-of-the-zone loft; horizontal entry low was unhittable for that swing path if Gray could execute it, and that he did.

Gray’s -5 run value on his cutter is eighth in the league, right behind pitchers with established elite cutters like Kenley Jansen, David Robertson, Marcus Stroman, and Camilo Doval. To add such an effective pitch — a .231 batting average against, a .233 wOBA, and it doesn’t have bad splits, with a .153 wOBA and -2.4 run value versus lefties — into your arsenal this quickly is a career-changing development. All that, and I haven’t mentioned Gray’s changeup usage and effectiveness thus far (-1 run value). Having a sixth pitch with a .125 batting average against is a premium not many other pitchers in baseball have, even if you just occasionally flash it (and Gray has thrown it just 6.4% of the time).

Gray is on pace for the highest fWAR of his career and is a mere 0.4 wins behind the AL leader, Kevin Gausman. There may be some regression coming considering he has only given up one home run all season, but that is a skill he’s displayed his entire career anyways. If he can keep this up and stay healthy, he is in a for a career year.

We are only a few weeks away from the midpoint of the season, and so far, there have been a fair share of surprises across multiple divisions. One of those comes from the NL East. No, it’s not the Braves, who sit atop the division with the second-best winning percentage in the National League; that was expected. The surprise is the Marlins, who are second in the division with a 37–31 record, 3.5 games ahead of the Phillies and 5.5 games ahead of the Mets. These are not insurmountable gaps, but it’s still impressive given what the projections were for Miami in particular.

With the ninth-worst run differential in the game, it’s not clear if the Marlins will sustain this winning pace. But they have gotten some legitimate performances from hitters that they simply have not had in previous seasons. Luis Arraez hasn’t stopped hitting since he got to Miami, and Jorge Soler is amidst yet another bounce back and clubbing homers all over the park. As a team desperate for offense, it’s been great to have those two hitting so well — and luckily, they aren’t the only two hitting. Bryan De La Cruz and Jesús Sánchez have been key to the Marlins’ success as well.

Both De La Cruz and Sánchez came to the team from fantastic player development organizations in Houston and Tampa Bay, respectively. De La Cruz is in his age-26 season, and Sánchez is in his age-25 season. Both are still under 1,000 career plate appearances and have been rather slow burns developmentally after struggling at different stages in their respective careers. And both have always shown interesting skills that suggested there was still some developmental meat left on the bone, as Eric Longenhagen would say. The flashes of success between 2021 and ’22 were interesting, but now each of them are legit contributors who have cemented their positions in the middle of Miami’s lineup and long-term plans. Read the rest of this entry »