Here Are Four Hitters Primed For a Big Second Half

Having reached the post–All-Star break world, you may find yourself perusing various stat leaderboards trying to get a grip of who has performed to, above or below expectations. I consider myself a relatively positive person, so when somebody isn’t performing to par, I like to explore their profile in search of a hint of their previous self, or in the case of a prospect, their best future self.

For this piece, I’m going to dive into a group of these players. The criteria aren’t too strict; I’m generally looking for players who are roughly 15 points or more of wRC+ below their preseason ZiPS projection. Other than that, there is some combination of batted ball data, mechanics, and a splash of subjectivity affecting my choices. With that said, let’s jump into it, starting with a former top five prospect.

Bobby Witt Jr.: 99 wRC (year-to-date) vs. 114 wRC+ (preseason ZiPS)

I am still all the way in on Bobby Witt Jr. Visually, he shows some of the key signs that I look for in an adaptable/strong hitter. For one, his rotation is clean even when he isn’t raking. He doesn’t over-rotate or over-commit with his lower body, and his swings don’t look high effort despite him hitting the ball consistently hard. But in the first few months of the season, his bat path looked limited, with his hands shooting into the zone without creating any depth to give the barrel space to get on plane. Toward the end of June, though, it looked like he was turning a corner, and he continued that improved production until the break.

Let’s look at a swing from May and another from later in June:

What I see is a hitter who slightly adjusted the way both his arms are working together. The scientific person may think of this as the relationship between horizontal bat angle (angle relative to front line of home plate), vertical bat angle (vertical angle of bat at contact), and the angle between both arms at contact. A more traditional thought would be for a hitter to cue a different movement with their lead elbow or better engage their top or bottom hand. Simply put, Witt is creating better loft with his bat at the right position in the strike zone to drive meatball fastballs like this one from Reese Olson. If Witt can continue to focus on creating the right angles with his upper body, I’m confident his breakout will come soon.

Austin Riley: 105 wRC+ (year-to-date) vs. 140 wRC+ (preseason ZiPS)

There probably aren’t many folks that are worried about Austin Riley, but that doesn’t mean he isn’t worth discussing. It would have been fair to expect him and his MVP teammate, Ronald Acuña Jr., to be neck-and-neck in terms of total offensive production; Riley’s preseason ZiPS projection was a 140 wRC+, and Acuña’s was a 143 wRC+. But while the latter has taken off, the former has taken an unexpected step back. Do not fear, though; I do not expect this to continue. Below are two heat maps detailing Riley’s swing rates last year compared to this one:

The story is clear: Riley isn’t attacking in the heart of the zone nearly as much as he did last year when he had a .255 ISO and .468 xwOBACON, with both those numbers trailing behind this year (.181 ISO and .426 xwOBACON). His swing still looks great, and his pull rate, groundball rate, and SweetSpot% haven’t dropped off enough to make me think that his swing has undergone any worrisome change, so I’m confident this is an aggression situation. Coming out of the break, I think Riley will be closer to his 2022 82% Heart Swing% than this year’s 73%.

Rafael Devers: 116 wRC+ (year-to-date) vs. 142 wRC+ (preseason ZiPS)

Rafael Devers is having a confusing season. If I didn’t tell you he had a 116 wRC+ on the year and you looked at all his other numbers, you would probably think that this is his best statistical season yet (not including defense or baserunning). His .239 ISO is nearly a career high, and his 20 home runs put him on track to challenge his career best of 38 from 2019. His HardHit% is slightly up, and his walk-to-strikeout rate is the same as his previous two years combined. So what gives?

To start, the difference between his xwOBA (.379) and wOBA (.345) is not insignificant. Some of that can be explained by a career low .267 BABIP — .314 is his career average — but it is still perplexing to see. His xwOBACON has increased by .027 points, and his barrel rate has increased by 1.8 percentage points. If we zoom in even more and look at the percentage of his hard hits within the sweet spot range (8–32 degrees), it gets even more confusing: 2021 (49.1%), 2022 (41.6%), 2023 (45.6%). This just seems like a better hitter who has run into a ton of bad luck. Stay the course with Devers; he might be one of the league’s best in the second half.

Anthony Volpe: 89 wRC+ (year-to-date) vs. 108 wRC+ (preseason ZiPS)

You might be confused seeing a rookie hitter with an 89 wRC+ on this list, but I’m confident that there aren’t many folks out there who have watched more Anthony Volpe swings and at-bats than I have. After a grueling first two and a half months of his career, the Yankees shortstop made a mechanical adjustment and has seen a significant improvement since. Here is the difference in Volpe’s swing from before and after his change, respectively:

It is so difficult to cover the outer third of the plate if your first move as a right-handed hitter is toward third base. In the swing against Jalen Beeks, Volpe is bailing too soon in his swing. In this case, it resulted in a weak rolled over groundball, but against righties, it’s led to whiff after whiff on sliders away. It’s a hole that can be exposed by many types of pitchers. Volpe knew this and adjusted by closing off his stance. I know the camera angles are different, but Tampa Bay’s gives a perfect view of how extreme Volpe’s stepping in the bucket had gotten. Since he made this change in the middle of June, he has a 150 wRC+ and 23.6 K% compared to an abysmal 71 wRC+ and 30.3 K% before. Don’t get me wrong: there is still vulnerability here with a well-located slider from a right-hander. But the adjustment has made it more manageable for Volpe to see these pitches and hurt mistakes if they’re left in the middle of the plate.

I considered several other hitters this exercise: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (whom Jay Jaffe covered last week), Teoscar Hernández, Spencer Torkelson, and Triston Casas. But for one reason or another, the four hitters I discussed stood out to me above the rest. There is so much randomness in this sport, which makes it easy to freak out when you’re watching your guy every day and not seeing the results you want. This is a reminder that this particular group of hitters is going to be alright.