Let’s Talk About Freddie Freeman, Baserunner Extraordinaire

Freddie Freeman is a fantastic baseball player. Since the beginning of 2020, he is tied with Juan Soto for fourth in wRC+, sitting at 157. He is also as durable as any other position player in the league, ranking third in games played in that same span. But wRC+ and durability aren’t why I’m here to discuss Freeman today. Instead, I’m interested in his baserunning.

Baserunning is certainly not the most important aspect of Freeman’s game, but he is darn good at it. Before I get into how and why, though, I want to talk about his lack of speed. At 26.6 ft/s on average, Freeman is a 35th-percentile runner; in the landscape of the league and other good baserunners, he is a bit of a tortoise. But that doesn’t stop him on the bases.

When it comes to baserunning, your chances are much better of being above average on the basepaths if you can boogie. If you peruse the BsR or Statcast Runner Runs leaderboards, you’ll see mostly 90th-percentile runners and above, with the bottom line being in the mid-70s. Rarely does a name like Freeman’s pop up, but he ranks 17th of 139 in BsR and 37th of 295 in Runner Runs. For him, these results come about because of other aspects of the game that you don’t need speed for: instincts, reads, and preparation. The further down you are in the speed department, the more important these skills become. This wasn’t always a positive part of Freeman’s game, but in the last few years, he has been consistently above-average.

When you’re watching a game on television, you don’t always catch great baserunning decisions at first glance. The game is centered around the pitch, the swing, and the fielding attempt; that’s what the cameras follow. But on replay, you see a runner realized the corner outfielder was taking a diagonal route and was going to need two extra steps to make a strong throw. Those two steps are the difference between safe and out, but the runner didn’t hesitate and took an extra base. Baserunners have to see and process this in a split second, weighing their own speed against a fielder’s arm strength. It’s not like Freeman is a big risk taker, but he really understands when and when not to go.

With Statcast’s new baserunning leaderboard, we’re able to see exactly how many runs above average were created from a single play. So let’s look at some plays where Freeman scored at home, plays where he was safe at second or third on his or a teammate’s hit, and plays where he was safe at second or third from a stolen base. We’ll start with plays at the plate:

When you’re on the basepaths, you have a checklist of things to know before the play actually happens. First, make sure you’re on the base before you start looking around the field and find who has the ball. Second, check the position of each outfielder. Are they shading toward the lines or the gaps? Third, know the arm strength of each outfielder. Lastly, see who’s at the plate. When you play with guys every day and watch them take batting practice every day, you get a decent sense of what their tendencies are. Combine all this information, and you’re better equipped to make split-second decisions.

In the first GIF, Freeman knew that Randy Arozarena had to run to his right and make a throw off his back foot. Typically, you won’t take off for home if the player fields the ball before you even get to third base, but Arozarena doesn’t have a strong arm and didn’t have his momentum going in the right direction. Freeman made a quick decision, and Arozarena didn’t bother going for the out.

In the second GIF, Jordan Luplow ran in from deep right field to catch a skyscraper pop up with no time to get around and behind the ball. His momentum took him toward third base instead of home. This was a shallow spot, but Freeman knew it would be too difficult to make a perfect throw and comfortably took home.

The last play — a fly ball to Lourdes Gurriel Jr. — was a simple case of knowing your outfielders. This too was not a deep fly ball, but if you challenge the right thrower, this is more than deep enough. Gurriel made a throw way off line, and Freeman cruised into the plate. I want to reiterate that none of these are big risks; rather, they are the perfect time for a runner like Freeman to force a player to make a play.

Now let’s look at some other sound decisions Freeman has made:

Jason Heyward is the exact type of player to hook a single down the line. Freeman knew off the bat this was going to be a first-to-third opportunity; he doesn’t even peek at Mark Mathias after the ball is hit. He is fully prepared to force Mathias to make the best play of his life. He did not, and Freeman reached third with one out and a chance for a sac fly to drive him in.

When you hit a line drive deep down the right field line, you can clearly see the route a fielder takes to the ball. Nolan Jones tried to be too direct, and he paid the price. Even with his 100th-percentile arm strength, he still couldn’t catch Freeman, because he took one too many steps. It’s the same story in the third GIF, a line drive into the left-center gap. You can clearly see it all play out: Michael Conforto set the table before getting rid of the ball, and it was enough for Freeman to make it a bang-bang play. There’s nothing like an emphatic safe call from an umpire when you’re sliding into second on a play this close.

Lastly, we have to appreciate Freeman’s ability to steal bases. He only has 82 in his career, but 16 of them have come this year — a new career high, breaking a mark set… last season, when he swiped 13. He is 16-for-17 in attempts, and the following two plays perfectly represent his cleverness in picking his spots:

Any good baserunner knows how easy it can be to get a big jump against a lefty reliever. If you’ve done your scouting, you know who those guys are and what their tells are. Kirby Snead seems to be a long-hold-and-stare kind of dude. Freeman knew this and got such a big jump that only a perfect throw would have gotten him. This is a classic case of stealing on the pitcher’s lack of a threat to pick you off.

The other effective way to take a bag, even if a pitcher has a quick move, is to pick the right pitch. In Will Smith’s first-inning plate appearance against Blake Snell, he went yard to left field; Snell didn’t throw him a single curveball in the at-bat. In the third inning, he walked Smith but started the at-bat with his patented loopy curveball. He went to the pitch again to start his third matchup with Smith. This is probably the best example of Freeman knowing the scouting report and taking a slight risk that Snell would follow it. No pitch is harder to throw down to second on than a glove-side breaking ball; you have to move the ball across your body, and there is so much room for error. This is what I like to call a stolen base ambush.

There aren’t many runners in the league like Freeman; consistently making the right decisions on the basepaths is not easy! But he makes it look simple and is as instinctive as they come out there, and it’s become one of my favorite trends to track throughout this season. If Freeman continues on this track, he has a chance of claiming the improbable title of being a 20–20 player for the first time in his career at the age of 33.