By now, most people are familiar with the tale of Joel Pineiro. The former Mariner’s career was on the ropes a few years back — after averaging 2.6 Wins Above Replacement per season with Seattle from 2002 to 2005, Pineiro fell to 0.6 WAR in 2006. He signed with the Red Sox for the ’07 season and spent his time in Boston mopping up in the bullpen. Traded to St. Louis in July, Pineiro was so-so as a starter during the second half of the year and in 2008, battling shoulder and groin injuries. He posted 0.6 WAR again in ’07, and 0.9 WAR in ’08.

And then, the breakthrough. Pineiro played Daniel LaRusso to Dave Duncan’s Mr. Miyagi (or Dre Parker to Duncan’s Mr. Han, but I’m old school), becoming skilled in the art of the sinker. Tossing 214 frames in 2009, Pineiro induced ground balls at a 60.5 percent clip, while striking out 4.42 batters per nine innings and stingily issuing 1.14 BB/9. His 3.68 xFIP was tenth among qualified NL starters, and his 4.8 WAR ranked eighth. Pineiro parlayed that performance into a two-year, $16 million deal with the Angels this past winter.

Transitioning back to the DH league and coming off of a year of unprecedented success, Pineiro wasn’t expected to come near the five win mark in 2010 — it would be a bit much to anticipate him again inducing grounders like a Derek Lowe/Tim Hudson love child, while displaying Greg Maddux-esque control and keeping a home run per fly ball rate under seven. But the FANS figured he’d make the Angels look pretty smart anyway, projecting a 3.4 WAR season.

So far so good for the 31-year-old righty. After last night’s eight inning, one-run outing against the Brewers, Pineiro sports a 4.01 FIP and a 3.86 xFIP on the season. His walk rate has predictably climbed from barely over one, but it remains excellent at 2.18 free passes per nine innings. His HR/FB rate has also regressed to 11.8 percent, after last season’s 6.5 percent mark. Pineiro’s burning worms again, with a 55.9 GB%. Surprisingly, he’s striking out batters at his highest rate (5.84 K/9) since 2004. That is not a breath-taking total, but Pineiro’s swinging strike rate has increased from 5.6 in 2009 to 6.5 this season (8.2-8.6 percent MLB average in recent seasons), and his over all whiff rate when throwing a fastball has climbed from 4.2 percent last year to 5.7 percent in 2010.

Pineiro was regarded skeptically over the winter, as teams were unsure of how much of the gains that he made in 2009 would carry over in the years to follow. The market basically valued him as a 1.5 to two-win pitcher per season, and Pineiro’s well on his way to exceeding that level of performance. He has amassed a 1.5 WAR so far this season, and if he meets his ZiPS projection for the rest of the year (4.14 FIP in 102 innings), he would finish with about three wins above replacement. Kudos to the Angels for snagging a quality starter at a reasonable price.

Very quietly, Houston Astros lefty Wandy Rodriguez ranked among the better starters in the National League over the past few seasons. The man once known as Eny Cabreja made a name for himself from 2007 to 2009, striking out 8.25 batters per nine innings, walking 2.89 per nine, and posting a 3.81 xFIP that ranked in the top 20 among NL starters.

It hasn’t been a banner year for Rodriguez, though. Through his first 13 starts, the 31-year-old has been lit up for a 5.60 ERA. That’s the highest mark among qualified NL starters. Has Wandy lost his magic?

While Rodriguez isn’t pitching at the same level as he did over the ’07 to ’09 period, his ERA does overstate the extent of his struggles — his FIP is 4.41 and his xFIP is 4.49. Rodriguez has been plagued by a .353 BABIP, second-highest among qualified Senior Circuit starters and well above his .314 career figure. Further, his rate of stranding runners on base has dipped to 62.5 percent; the MLB average is in the 70-72 percent range, and Rodriguez’s career left on base rate is 69.4 percent.

So, Wandy hasn’t really been among the worst starters in the league. But he’s still falling well short of his pre-season forecasts. ZiPS projected 8.13 K/9, 2.81 BB/9 and a 3.78 FIP, while CHONE envisioned 8.16 K/9, 2.95 BB/9 and a 3.80 FIP. So far, Rodriguez has punched out 6.22 hitters per nine frames and issued 3.73 BB/9.

Unsurprisingly, with those strikeout and walk totals, Rodriguez is missing fewer bats, putting fewer pitches in the zone, and is getting behind in the count more than usual. From 2007 to 2009, he garnered swinging strikes 8.7 percent of the time, slightly above the 8.6 percent MLB average over that period. He located 52.3 percent of his pitches within the strike zone, with the MLB average ranging from 49.3 to 51.1 percent. Rodriguez threw a first pitch strike 60 percent, besting the 58 percent big league average.

In 2010, however, his swinging strike rate is 7.6 percent (8.2 MLB average), his zone percentage is 45.5 (47.3 MLB average) and his rate of first pitch strikes is 58.2 (58.3 MLB average).

According to Pitch F/X data from TexasLeaguers.com, Rodriguez is throwing more two-seam fastballs at the expense of four-seamers this season. Maybe it’s a classification quirk, but that would help explain his career-high 47.5 ground ball rate. Rodriguez is throwing the two-seamer for strikes (65 percent, compared to the 61.9 percent MLB average), but the pitch gets few whiffs — 4.3 percent, as opposed to the 8.4 percent MLB average.

When Wandy does throw a four-seamer, the pitch is rarely on the mark. The four-seamer has been thrown for strikes just 52.7 percent (64.1 MLB average), with a 3.2 percent whiff rate (6 percent MLB average). Batters are swinging at the pitch only 29.3 percent of the time (44.6 big league average). By contrast, Rodriguez threw the pitch for a strike about 66 percent of the time in 2008 and 2009, with an average whiff rate and a swing percentage in the low-forties.

His signature mid-70’s curveball hasn’t been as sharp, either. Rodriguez has induced a strike with the curve 60.3 percent in 2010, which is still above the 58 percent MLB average, but falls short of his 63.2 percent mark in 2009 and 62.4 percent figure in 2008. The whiff rate on his curve is 12.4 percent, down from 14 percent in 2009 and 14.2 percent in 2008 (10.5 percent MLB average).

After losing his arbitration hearing over the winter, Rodriguez is earning $5 million this season. He’s arbitration-eligible again next year, so he’s under team control through 2011. Given his track record of quality pitching over the past few seasons, Houston’s place in the standings and the team’s moribund (at least until recently) player development system, Rodriguez could find himself on the trading block. Whether the Astros choose to keep him or swap him, the club could surely use the ’07 to ’09 version of Wandy Rodriguez, as opposed to the merely adequate pitcher on display so far this season.

Every season, a few bullpen arms emerge (or re-emerge) from obscurity, providing their clubs with excellent relief work for a bargain-basement price. Today I’d like to highlight three such hurlers. Each experienced big league success in the past, but had fallen on hard times lately. Without further ado, here are the ‘pen performers who have returned from the dead in 2010..

J.J. Putz, White Sox

Signed: December 2009 — 1 year, $3 million

A nondescript major leaguer with the Mariners in 2004 and 2005 (a combined 0.1 WAR in 123 innings), Putz terrorized hitters in the late frames the following two years. With a fastball that crept up to the mid-nineties, a mid-80’s slider and an upper-80’s splitter, he led all relievers with 3.6 WAR in 2006 and followed up with 2.3 WAR (a top-10 mark) in 2007. Over that two-year span, Putz owned an 11.16 K/9, 1.56 BB/9 and a 2.50 xFIP (best among relievers).

The 6-5, 250 pound righty’s reign as bullpen king, however, was short-lived. Plagued by rig cage and elbow ailments in 2008, Putz still missed scads of bats (10.88 K/9) but lost the zone often (5.44 BB/9). He hit the DL twice and finished with a 4.13 xFIP and 0.6 WAR. Swapped to the Mets as part of a three-team deal in December of ’08, Putz tossed just 29.1 innings for the Amazin’s last year before undergoing season-ending surgery to remove a bone spur from his elbow. He never looked right, compiling just 0.1 WAR with as many walks as punch outs (5.83 K/9 and BB/9 apiece).

Picked up by the White Sox over the winter, Putz is dealing in 2010. He has a 2.28 xFIP and 0.6 WAR in 21.2 IP, whiffing 11.63 per nine innings and issuing 1.66 BB/9. During his big league career, Putz has thrown his fastball about 70 percent of the time. This season, however, he’s going to the heat 52 percent of the time. The 33-year-old is relying heavily on his splitter (about 35 percent), and he’s getting a ton of swings on pitches off the plate and plenty of whiffs. Among relievers with 10+ IP, Putz places tenth in outside swing percentage (37) and 20th in swinging strike rate (12.8 percent).

Joaquin Benoit, Rays

Signed: February, 2010 — minor league deal, $750K with $500K in incentives

A swingman with the Rangers from 2002-2005, Benoit transitioned to relief full-time in 2006. Over the next two seasons, he owned an 9.58 K/9, 3.67 BB/9 and a 4.01 xFIP, racking up 1.4 WAR in ’06 and two wins in ’07. Benoit had long dealt with injury problems — according to the Baseball Injury Tool, he was sidelined with elbow inflammation in 2003, shoulder tendinitis in 2004, and shoulder and elbow tendinitis in 2005. But he was healthy and effective for the Rangers for those two seasons.

It didn’t last, though. Bothered by shoulder soreness in 2008, Benoit slogged through a sub-replacement-level season (-0.2 WAR). Joaquin K’d 8.6 batters per nine innings, but walked seven per nine with a 5.71 xFIP. He underwent rotator cuff surgery in early 2009 and missed the entire season.

The Rays took a flyer this past winter, and it’s paying off. Benoit, 32, shredded Triple-A hitters with Durham to begin the 2010 campaign (9.2 IP, 17/3 K/BB) and he’s doing the same in the majors. He’s got 12.64 K/9 and 2.3 BB/9 in 15.2 innings, with a 2.29 xFIP and 0.4 WAR. Throwing his fastball harder than ever (93.7 MPH average) and mixing in mid-80’s sliders and low-80’s changeups, Benoit has an obscene 16.4 swinging strike rate, a number that is tops among MLB relievers.

Clay Hensley, Marlins

Signed: May 2009, minor league contract. Re-signed for $425K in December 2009

Hensley’s career highlight is a 2.1 WAR season for the Padres back in 2006. In 29 starts and eight relief stints covering 187 innings, Hensley used a kitchen-sink approach to post a 4.34 xFIP. Using an 88 MPH sinker, a low-80’s slider, a mid-70’s curve, and a low-80’s change, Hensley didn’t miss many bats (5.87 K/9) and his control was average (3.66 BB/9), but he made up for it with strong ground ball tendencies (53.9 GB%).

Injuries wrecked his next two seasons, as Hensley succumbed to labrum surgery in September of 2007. Before going under the knife, he served up Barry Bonds‘ 755th career home run and then got booted to the minors the next day. Hensley had a combined -0.3 WAR over the ’07 and ’08 seasons.

The Astros signed him to a minor league deal prior to 2009, but released him. The Marlins scooped Hensley up and stuck him in the Triple-A rotation, where he posted rates of 6.47 K/9, 3 BB/9 and a 3.73 FIP in 114 innings. While he lost out on a rotation spot this past spring, the 30-year-old has been a revelation in relief for Florida.

He’s still a soft-tosser (89.1 MPH), but he has gone to the fastball under 50 percent of the time. Instead he’s going to a slow curve (71-72 MPH) and changeup over 20 percent each, while tossing the occasional slider as well. Hensley has a 3.10 xFIP and 0.8 WAR in 32.1 IP so far, with a whopping 11.69 K/9 and 3.9 BB/9. Clay has retained his ground ball rate, too, with a 50.7 GB%.

As these three show, there are values to be had on the relief pitching market. A team can cobble together an effective ‘pen without shelling out a high seven-figure annual salary and holding a flashy press conference.

Little has gone right for the Chicago Cubs this season. The club’s starting pitchers boast the second-best xFIP in the National League and the defense isn’t too shabby, either (fifth in UZR). Unfortunately, those strong performances have gone to waste due to mediocre relief pitching (11th in the NL in xFIP) and offense (12th in wOBA). Even after last night’s 1-0 victory over the White Sox, the Cubs have a 28-35 record. At 7.5 games back of the division-leading Cardinals and eight games behind the Dodgers in the Wild Card chase, the Cubs have less than a seven percent shot of making the playoffs, according to CoolStandings.com. Yes, Lloyd, I’m telling you there’s a chance. It’s not looking good, though.

While there are many reasons as to why 2010 is shaping up to be yet another aggravating season in Wrigleyville, Marlon Byrd surely isn’t among them. The 32-year-old center fielder, inked to a three-year, $15 million deal over the off-season, is enjoying a career year.

Byrd’s batting .333/.375/.543, with a .400 wOBA that ranks in the top 20 among qualified big league hitters. He’s not walking (3.6 BB%) or whiffing (13.7 K%) much — he’s just racking up extra-base hits and getting some fortunate bounces on balls put in play. Byrd’s ISO is a career-high .209, while his .354 BABIP is 31 points higher than his expected BABIP and 29 points above his career BABIP in the majors. Defensively, Byrd has rated as average to slightly below average in center during his career. But he owns a +17.3 UZR/150 and +10 DRS in 2010. With three Wins Above Replacement, Byrd places seventh among all MLB position players. Not bad for a guy whose career has been on life support a couple of times over the years.

A Georgia prep star in baseball and football, Byrd attended Georgia Tech but suffered a devastating right leg injury — three procedures were performed on the leg, and at one point doctors considered amputation. He transferred to Georgia Perimeter Junior College, where his health and stock improved enough for the Phillies to pluck him in the 10th round of the 1999 draft.

Byrd emerged as a top prospect, cracking Baseball America’s top 100 list prior to the 2002 and 2003 seasons. He amassed 3.5 WAR rookie season in ’03, proving himself an asset at the plate (116 wRC+) and in the field (+5.1 UZR/150 in CF). At 25, Byrd looked poised to be a quality contributor for the Phightins for years to come.

But then he imploded. Byrd plummeted to -1.6 WAR in 2004, and followed that up with 0.9 WAR in part-time play during a 2005 season in which he was traded to the nascent Nationals. He split 2006 flailing in Washington (.294 wOBA, 0.4 WAR). But he hit fairly well in Triple-A (.369 wOBA). Byrd latched on with the Rangers prior to 2007, signing a minor league pact. After raking with the RedHawks to begin the year (.424 wOBA), Byrd was called up to the big leagues and proceeded to revive his career in Arlington.

From ’07 to 2009, Byrd was Mr. Average — he had 2.3 WAR per season, with a park-and-league-adjusted wOBA 14 percent above the norm (114 wRC+) but a glove that was a couple runs below average per 150 defensive games. CHONE had Byrd pegged for 2.6 WAR in 2010, a mark that he has already exceeded. Barring injury, he’ll easily surpass his rookie WAR total, too.

Odds are Byrd won’t remain one of the absolute best players in the majors. But ZiPS projects a .367 wOBA for the rest of the season. That, coupled with average D, would continue to make him a valuable starter. Byrd has taken a circuitous route to big league success, but he’s looking like a free agent coup for the Cubs.

For most of his major league career, Jose Valverde has relied upon pure, unadulterated power to close out games. Delivering sizzling fastballs from a calm, unhurried motion that contrasts with the wild leaping and fist pumps that follow the recording of the final out, Valverde has punched out 10.7 batters per nine innings, issuing 3.62 BB/9 and posting a 3.48 xFIP in the bigs.

The former Diamondback and Astro inked a two-year, $14 million contract with the Detroit Tigers this past winter, with a $9 million club option for the 2012 season. Papa Grande hasn’t been scored upon since April 7th, a stretch of 23 appearances. Clearly, Valverde has been the beneficiary of good fortune — he’s got a 0.37 ERA, due in large part to a Houdini-like .136 BABIP, a 96.6 percent rate of stranding base runners and a 7.7 home run per fly ball rate. For comparison, Valverde’s got a career .280 BABIP, a 79.3 left on base rate and a 10.4 home run per fly ball rate. But his xFIP, 3.59, is right in line with his previous work. Same old Valverde, right?

Not really. In the past, the 6-4, 250 pound righty has been all about the fastball. He threw his heater in excess of 80 percent in 2005 and 2006, and used the pitch more than three-quarters of the time over the 2007-2008 seasons. However, there’s a clear change in Valverde’s pitching approach as of late:

(note: his Pitch F/X numbers don’t show the same changes in pitch usage. However, given that the pitches Pitch F/X classifies as fastballs have decreased several MPH this season, with a sharp decrease in vertical movement, I’m inclined to believe the system is lumping a lot of splitters in with the fastballs.)

After gradually decreasing his fastball usage in favor of a mid-80’s splitter over the past few seasons, Valverde’s percentage of heaters thrown has fallen sharply in 2010. He’s now tossing his fastball a little over half the time, going to his tumbling off-speed pitch over 44 percent. Valverde’s fastball sat at 93-94 MPH when he was airing it out with great frequency, but the pitch has parked at 95-96 MPH more recently.

The result of Valverde’s shift in pitching philosophy? Far more contact and ground balls than in years past. This season, opponents are putting the bat on the ball against the 32-year-old stopper 79.1 percent of the time, compared to a career 70.1 percent average. Valverde’s swinging strike rate, 14.4 percent during his career, is just 7.9 percent in 2010. His walk rate (3.7 BB/9) is basically unchanged, but his 6.66 K/9 is by far the lowest mark of his big league tenure.

While he’s not missing bats, Valverde has become an extreme ground ball pitcher. With a 68.3 GB%, Valverde trails only San Diego’s Ryan Webb and Atlanta’s side-arming Aussie, Peter Moylan, among qualified relievers. That’s quite the contrast to his career rate of grounders, 39 percent.

Amazing luck aside, Jose Valverde’s results are right in line with his previous work. But the process behind those results has been drastically different. Rather than employing a fastball-centric, high K strategy rarely involving infielders, Valverde is going off-speed often and burning worms like few others.

Last night, a superstar stepped on to the field for the Washington Nationals. In the very first inning, after yet another feat of strength, the player had 40,000 strong standing, roaring, clamoring for more.

Huh? Oh yeah. That Strasburg guy was pretty good, too. But I was referring to Washington’s other franchise pillar, Ryan Zimmerman.

The fourth overall pick out of the University of Virginia in the 2005 draft, Zimmerman zipped through the minors, reaching the show the very same summer that he was drafted. Over the 2006-2008 seasons, he combined spectacular defense with a quality bat, averaging about +10.3 UZR per 150 defensive games with a 110 wRC+. Zimmerman compiled 3.9 Wins Above Replacement per season over that time frame, though that total was stunted somewhat by a left shoulder injury in ’08 that put him on the shelf for two months.

Since then, Zimmerman has taken his game to another level. He had 6.6 WAR in 2009, tied with Adrian Gonzalez for 9th among position players. This season, Zimmerman’s 3.2 WAR total trails only Justin Morneau, Robinson Cano and Alex Rios.

The 25-year-old third baseman is swift as ever with the glove, posting a +14.1 UZR/150 last season and a +24.7 UZR/150 in 2010. But it’s his bat that has taken a great leap forward — Zimmerman had a 132 wRC+ in 2009 and currently owns a 169 wRC+ this year.

Zimmerman’s power numbers have spiked since the beginning of the ’09 season. He had Isolated Power figures of .184, .191 and .159 over the 2006-2008 campaigns. Last year, his ISO climbed to .233. This season, it’s up to .282. Zimmerman’s home run per fly ball rate, 11.4-11.5 percent from 2006-2008, was 15.9 percent in 2009 and sits at 20.3 percent in 2010.

With the exception of 2009, Zimmerman has always posted excellent totals when pulling the ball to the left side. This season, he has been off-the-charts good..

Also, his power to center and the opposite field has surged:

Zimmerman’s pop up rate to the right side has fallen each year of his career, which certainly helps his opposite field numbers. Take a look at his infield/fly ball rates when hitting to the right side:

A more powerful Zimmerman is getting fewer pitches thrown within the strike zone. His percentage of in-zone offerings was right around the major league average each season prior to 2010. But that mark has fallen this year:

His walk rate has climbed as well — Zimmerman took a free pass in 8.2 percent of his plate appearances from 2006-2008, but walked 10.4 percent last season and 14.3 percent in 2010. He is getting more intentional walks (nine last year, four so far this year). That could affect his zone percentage a bit, too — without the intentionals, Zimmerman’s Zone% is around 46.4, though that’s still below the MLB average. Intentional walks or not, Zimmerman’s unintentional walk rate is up. It was 7.6 percent from 2006-2008, 9.1 percent in 2009 and is 12.4 percent in 2010.

Last year, Dave Cameron showed that there’s an inverse relationship between the percentage of fastballs a hitter sees and his ISO: the more pop a player has, the fewer fastballs he gets. That has been the case for Zimmerman. He got a heater a career-high 61.4 percent in 2007, and saw fastballs 59.9 percent in 2008 and 59.1 percent in 2009. This year, he’s getting challenged 55.3 percent.

Perhaps there’s some game theory going on here: Zimmerman mashed fastballs last season (+1.32 runs per 100 pitches seen), and pitchers have responded by throwing more breaking and off-speed stuff this season. Zimmerman’s performance against fastballs in 2010 is still good but has fallen (+0.51 runs/100), while his performance against more frequently thrown breaking balls and changeups has improved. Maybe Zimmerman is looking for something that bends or tumbles more often.

Will he continue to hit for this type of power? My guess would be that Zimmerman keeps some of the gains that he has made, but not all of them. According to Hit Tracker Online, Zimmerman leads the majors in “Just Enough” home runs, with six. A “Just Enough” home run, per the definition on the site, “means the ball cleared the fence by less than 10 vertical feet, OR that it landed less than one fence height past the fence. These are the ones that barely made it over the fence.”

Zimmerman’s rest-of-season ZiPS projects a .227 ISO, which seems reasonable. He has been beating the snot out of the baseball for too long to consider it a total fluke, though I’d bet that he won’t keep hitting a homer two-thirds of the time that he pulls a fly ball.

Be happy, Nats fans — a superstar debuted on the mound last night, but remember that you guys have one at the hot corner, too.

Ever seen Celebrity Rehab ? Basically, a bunch of former stars try to clean up their lives and stay on the straight and narrow path. Recently, the Pittsburgh Pirates have employed a similar strategy with erstwhile top prospects. The Bucs scooped up four former top 100 farm talents (as rated by Baseball America) from other organizations, hoping the players could reclaim some semblance of their previous glory. Here’s a look at how those players are performing.

Ronny Cedeno, SS
#94 prospect prior to 2006
Acquired: July 2009 from Seattle Mariners

Originally a Cubs prospect signed out of Venezuela back in 1999, Cedeno showed some offensive promise at the Double-A and Triple-A levels. After a 2005 season in which Cedeno raked at Iowa (355/.403/.518) and made his be league debut, BA said that he had “proven that he could be more than a glove man.”

Suffice it to say, his bat hasn’t translated to the highest level — in 1,550 career plate appearances, Cedeno has a .273 wOBA and a 61 wRC+. BA also said that he lacked plate patience, and that part of the scouting report was dead on. Cedeno’s outside swing rate in the majors tops 35 percent.

Despite a .281 wOBA and a 71 wRC+, Cedeno hasn’t been a total liability in 2010. He has 0.7 Wins Above Replacement, on the strength of a +16.2 UZR/150 at shortstop. However, Ronny’s career UZR/150 at the position is -1.3. The 27-year-old will need to keep playing stellar defense to make up for his Adam Everett-esque lumber.

Jeff Clement, 1B
#33 prospect prior to 2006, #62 pre-2007, #42 pre-2008
Acquired: July 2009 from Seattle Mariners

The third overall pick in the 2005 draft, Clement was a highly-coveted talent as a lefty-swinging, power hitting catcher. Unfortunately, he tumbled down the defensive spectrum due to unflattering scouting reports and knee problems. Now, Clement’s strictly a first baseman. He last strapped on the catcher’s gear in 2009, and that was just for 16 games.

Though he managed a decent .279/.368/.492 line in over 1,500 PA at the Triple-A level, Clement has a .283 wOBA and a 72 wRC+ in 380 career trips to the plate in the majors. CHONE and ZiPS both gave the former USC star a .350 wOBA projection for the 2010 season, but he has a ghastly .237 wOBA so far. A .213 batting average on balls in play hasn’t helped, but Clement is hacking at 31.4 percent of off-the-plate pitches, walking 4.4 percent and whiffing 26.8 percent. Considering the position that he now plays, he has -0.7 WAR on the season.

Clement has found himself on the bench more often as of late, with Pittsburgh turning to either Garrett Jones or Bobby Crosby (speaking of former prospects..) at first base. Now 26, Clement is in serious danger of being written off as a viable starter in the majors. His rest-of-season ZiPS projects a .334 wOBA — that’s just not useful from a first baseman.

Andy LaRoche, 3B
#74 prospect prior to 2005, #19 pre-2006 and 2007, #31 pre-2008
Acquired: July 2008 from Los Angeles Dodgers

It’s not entirely fair to lump LaRoche in with the other guys on this list. First, he wasn’t really picked up as a reclamation project — LaRoche was perhaps the prime prospect acquired by the Pirates in the three-team Jason Bay/Manny Ramirez proceedings. Also, the former Dodgers prospect was a relatively productive starter last season, with 2.6 WAR.

However, it’s fair to say that LaRoche has fallen short of expectations in 2010. He was essentially a league-average hitter in ’09 (.324 wOBA, 97 wRC+), but the 26-year-old has a .291 wOBA and a 77 wRC+ this year. He displayed mild power last season, with a .143 ISO, but LaRoche has a .096 mark in 2010. Pop ups have been a problem (21.3 IF/FB%, nearly three times the MLB average). Couple that hitting with a poor UZR/150 rating (-13.9), and you have a sub-replacement-level showing: -0.3 WAR.

LaRoche should improve at the plate (.324 rest-of-season ZiPS wOBA), and he rated quite well defensively last season. Overall, his career UZR/150 at third is +0.6. There’s nothing wrong with a guy who projects as roughly an average starter, particularly when he has several years of team control remaining. But the Pirates were probably looking for a little more, and LaRoche’s long-term defensive home becomes unclear if Pedro Alvarez begins his big league career at third base.

Lastings Milledge, LF
#86 prospect prior to 2004, #11 pre-2005, #9 pre-2006
Acquired: June 2009 from Washington Nationals

Formerly the pride of the New York Mets’ player development program, Milledge has since passed through Washington and is now floundering in Pittsburgh. BA once thought that Lastings would help anchor the lineup in Queens along with Wright, Reyes and Beltran. Instead, Milledge has a career .315 wOBA and a 91 wRC+.

The 25-year-old has been even worse as of late: a .308 wOBA during a 2009 season in which he suffered a broken finger and a .292 wOBA in 2010. He’s doing a slightly better job of working the count this season (nine percent walk rate, though that includes two intentionals), but his power is MIA: a .078 ISO. Milledge is chopping the ball into the grass (51 GB%) and popping up (17.4 IF/FB%) often. He’s got -0.2 WAR on the season.

Milledge’s rest-of-season ZiPS calls for a .320 wOBA. He has been around an average corner outfielder (career +1.6 UZR/150) after a disastrous stint in center field for the Nationals, so he projects as a below-average starter at this point.

So, there you have it: four players once celebrated as franchise pillars combining for -0.5 WAR. Top-rated position players provide the most production in the aggregate, but these four haven’t lived up to the billing. With perhaps the exception of LaRoche, it’s not looking good for this quartet of underachievers.

Boston’s bullpen is struggling this season. Collectively, Red Sox relievers have a 4.68 xFIP, besting just the Indians, Royals and Angels among American League clubs. The only Sox reliever with a sub-four xFIP is Daniel Bard, at 3.29.

You may be surprised to learn that Jonathan Papelbon, he of 2.6 Wins Above Replacement per season as a full-time reliever from 2006-2009, is among the most egregious offenders.

In 24 innings pitched, the famed river dancer is walking a tight rope — his 3.00 ERA doesn’t look so bad, but his xFIP sits at 5.02. With -0.3 WAR, Papelbon has arguably been the least effective of Boston’s bullpen options.

Papelbon has a career-low 7.13 K/9 and a career-high 4.5 BB/9. He’s getting swinging strikes 11.1 percent, still above the 9.3 percent average for MLB relievers but below his 13.3 percent career average. The 29-year-old is also putting fewer pitches within the strike zone — 48.2 percent, compared to a career 53.6 percent average. When Papelbon does throw a pitch in the zone, batters are putting the bat on the ball more often. His in-zone contact rate is 89 percent, well north of his 81.9 percent figure as a major leaguer. If Papelbon’s batting average on balls in play were closer to his career .275 mark than his current .198, his struggles would be more apparent.

Sample size caveats apply, but 2010 continues a clear downward trend in the effectiveness of Papelbon’s fastball. During his career, Papelbon’s heater has been one of the best offerings in the game. His mid-90s gas has been worth +2.07 runs per 100 pitches. However, that fastball hasn’t been near as dominating lately:

Papelbon’s Run Value Per 100 pitches with the fastball, by year

2005: +0.69
2006: +3.24
2007: +3.29
2008: +2.21
2009: +1.49
2010: -0.34

Papelbon had the highest fastball run value/100 pitches among relievers in 2006. He placed second in 2007 and fifth in 2008. Last year, he still managed to sneak into the top 20. But this season, his fastball has been about as valuable as those of Danys Baez and Kanekoa Texeira.

Trip Somers’ texasleaguers site has three years of Pitch F/X data on Papelbon. There aren’t any large changes in terms of velocity or movement, but the strike, swing and whiff rates on Papelbon’s fastball are heading in the wrong direction:

2008: 71.3 Strike%, 56.3 Swing%, 11.5 Whiff%
2009: 67.5 Strike%, 51.8 Swing%, 10.4 Whiff%
2010: 67.0 Strike%, 49.7 Swing%, 10.0 Whiff%

It’s dangerous to infer too much from a few months of poor pitching from a reliever. But Papelbon’s performance as Boston’s closer has gone from awesome (2.78 xFIP from ’06 to ’08) to acceptable (3.98 xFIP in ’09) to replacement-level.

The odds that he continues to at this pace are very low — Papelbon has a long track record as one of the best relievers in the majors. But if the Red Sox are going to overcome New York or Tampa and snag a playoff spot, they’ll need their stopper to pick up the pace.

Before there was Steven Strasburg, unstoppable pitching cyborg or Bryce Harper, then-16-year-old Sports Illustrated cover boy, there was Matt Wieters. A switch-hitting, power-hitting force with enough athleticism in his 6-5, 230 pound frame to remain behind the dish, Wieters was selected out of Georgia Tech with the fifth pick in the 2007 amateur draft.

At the time, Baseball America said that Wieters could eventually “post averages near .280 with 30-homer potential in the big leagues,” and that despite his stature, he possessed “soft hands, good footwork and well-above-average arm strength, as evidenced by the 96 mph heat he has shown from the mound.” The $6 million man proceeded to terrorize minor league pitchers, batting a combined .343/.438/.576 at the High-A, Double-A and Triple-A levels. He also rated well defensively, according to Sean Smith’s Total Zone numbers.

Called up to the majors late last May, Wieters went on to post a .288/.340/.412 line in 385 plate appearances. That might not look off-the-charts good, but a .330 wOBA from a 23-year-old catcher, in the AL East, is extremely impressive. In four months of playing time, Wieters racked up 1.6 WAR. Heading into 2010, CHONE projected Wieters to rake to the tune of .289/.355/.460 (.356 wOBA), adding a couple of runs in defensive value while compiling 3.9 WAR. That’s the sort of production worthy of a Chuck Norris-style facts page (did you know Scott Boras hired Matt Wieters as his agent?)

Instead of building upon his successful rookie campaign, Wieters has stumbled somewhat over the first two months of the 2010 season. In 194 trips to the plate, he’s hitting .240/.314/.337, with a .290 wOBA. He’s holding his own defensively, rating as slightly above-average in controlling the running game after being a couple runs below average last season, but Wieters’ 0.5 WAR falls well short of his lofty preseason forecast.

Part of Wieters’ mild offensive showing can be explained by a .292 batting average on balls in play, down from last season’s .356 mark. His expected BABIP, based on his rate of home runs, strikeouts, stolen bases, line drives, fly balls, pop ups and ground balls, is .324. Still, Wieters’ current plate approach isn’t conducive to putting up robust numbers with the lumber.

While Wieters’ walk rate has increased from 7.3 percent in ’09 to 9.3 percent this year, his plate discipline hasn’t been as sharp. At first glance, it looks like he has become more selective — Wieters swung at 47.2 percent of pitches in 2009, but just 43.1 percent in 2010. But, it’s the type of pitches that he’s going after that’s concerning. In ’09, Wieters chased 25.7 percent of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone. This year, he’s hacking at 29.7 percent of out-of-zone pitches. He took a cut at 70.2 percent of in-zone offerings in ’09, but just 59.2 percent in 2010.

The MLB averages for O-Swing and Z-Swing differ between the two years, but even as a percentage of the league average, Wieters is swinging at more would-be balls and keeping the bat on the shoulder against more strikes:

Chasing more junk pitches and watching more in-zone pitches go by isn’t a recipe for offensive success. Wieters’ first pitch strike percentage, 53 last season, has climbed to 63.9 percent in 2010 (58 percent MLB average). He hit a ground ball 41.9 percent in ’09, but he’s chopping the ball into the grass 49.3 percent in 2010. That’s obviously not going to help in the power department, and Wieters’ ISO has dipped from .124 to .097.

All of this sounds pessimistic, but it’s important to remember that Wieters just turned 24 at the end of May. He thrashed minor league pitching, earning glowing scouting reports. He was a league-average hitter as a rookie playing the most physically taxing position on the field, in the game’s most competitive environment. Wieters’ rest-of-season ZiPS projection calls for a .275/.342/.413 triple-slash, with a .336 wOBA. Many teams would be thrilled to get that sort of production out of a competent defensive catcher. While he must hone his strike zone control, there’s still plenty of time for Wieters to reach those star-level expectations.

Rich Harden’s major league career has come to be defined by short bursts of dominant pitching, followed by lengthy stints on the DL. The slightly-built right-hander has well over one punch out per inning during his major league tenure and his career xFIP sits at 3.89. But sadly, shoulder, oblique, back and elbow ailments have kept him from shutting down hitters for a sustained period of time.

This past off-season, the Chicago Cubs showed little interest in retaining Harden’s services after a 2009 season in which he posted rates of 10.91 K/9, 4.28 BB/9 and a 3.70 xFIP in 141 innings pitched. His campaign was, you guessed it, injury-plagued — Harden was sidelined with a back strain in May and was shut down in September with shoulder fatigue. Rather than risking a salary arbitration offer to the Type B free agent (and gaining a sandwich pick between the first and second rounds of the draft if he declined and signed elsewhere), the Cubs declined to offer arbitration, feeling Harden would accept and get a raise from his $7 million salary in ’09.

Harden inked a one-year, $7.5 million deal with the Texas Rangers, with an $11 million mutual option for the 2011 season. Harden’s pact includes performance bonuses: he gets half a million each for reaching 155, 165, 175, 185 and 195 frames. So far, Harden has tossed 54 innings for Texas. While he’s usually either unavailable or awesome, the 28-year-old has just plain been awful thus far.

With 8.17 K/9 (his lowest mark since 2004) and a career-worst 6.17 BB/9, Harden owns a 5.77 xFIP. That puts him in the same sordid company as Brian Burres and Oliver Perez. Harden has been as valuable as a readily available Triple-A talent, coming in at exactly replacement level.

The decline in Harden’s plate discipline stats is shocking. While one would expect him to post a somewhat higher contact rate and a lower whiff rate by virtue of moving from the Senior Circuit back to the DH league, Harden hasn’t been anywhere near as dominant. Over the 2008-2009 seasons, Harden had a sub-70 percent contact rate and a 15-plus percent swinging strike rate. With Texas, he’s allowing contact 83 percent and is garnering swinging strikes just 7.4 percent. For comparison, the average MLB contact rate is 80-81 percent and the average swinging strike rate is between 8-9 percent.

Harden has seen an across-the-board dip in whiff rate on his pitches. According to Trip Somers’ Pitch F/X Tool, opponents whiffed at Harden’s four-seam fastball 10.2 percent of the time in 2009 (six percent MLB average). This year, the four-seamer is getting whiffs 6.5 percent. Harden’s heat is also down in velocity (92.2 MPH in ’09, 91.1 MPH this season), though the radar gun readings are creeping up:

His slider made hitters come up empty 22.4 percent in ’09 (13.6 percent MLB average). In 2010, his the pitch (down from 84 MPH to 82 MPH) has an 8.1 percent whiff rate. Harden’s changeup induced a whiff 22.7 percent last season, crushing the 12.6 percent major league average. As a Ranger, Harden’s getting whiffs on 8.2 percent of his changeups (his velocity with the pitch is basically unchanged).

In addition to not missing near as much lumber, Harden’s control has suffered: his first pitch strike percentage is 52.8, compared to 55-56 percent in 2008-2009 and the 58 percent MLB average. According to Baseball-Reference, Harden has allowed the hitter to get ahead in the count in 39.8 percent of plate appearances, while the 2010 AL average is 36.2 percent.

Given his checkered injury history, it seems fair to wonder if Harden is healthy. Perhaps he will starting rolling soon, but he has experienced precipitous declines in his ability to fool batters and hit his spots. Right now, Harden isn’t near the same high-octane pitcher who laid waste to hitters as a member of the A’s and Cubs.

Injury info from the Baseball Injury Tool.