Milwaukee Brewers
FanGraphs 2011 Top 10 Prospects
Decreased Value: Mark Rogers, RHP

An all-out run at the National League Central division worked out well for the big league club in 2011 but it wreaked havoc on the organization’s minor league system. The Top 10 list was weak to begin with but it was further decimated by trades for pitchers Zack Greinke and Shaun Marcum. Rogers became the No. 1 prospect in the system at the beginning of the season by default. His ’11 season was disrupted by injuries, a trend that has become far too commonplace. He was diagnosed with carpal tunnel syndrome and had surgery on both his wrists. To make matters worse, Rogers also incured a 25-game suspension for testing positive for an illegal substance (His second such suspension). The former No. 1 prospect battled back from multiple surgeries to become the feel good story of 2010 but it appears headed for a serious re-write.

St. Louis Cardinals
FanGraphs 2011 Top 10 Prospects
Decreased Value: Seth Blair, RHP

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We kick off the National League today as we continue our series looking at disappointing seasons from prospects ranked on the pre-season 2011 FanGraphs Top 10 prospect lists. We’ve already taken a look at the American League: East, Central, and West.

Atlanta Braves
FanGraphs 2011 Top 10 Prospects
Decreased Value: Matthew Lipka, SS/2B/OF

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Our series on disappointing Top 10 prospects from 2011 continues with a look at the American League West. We’ve already taken a trip through the AL East and Central.

Seattle Mariners
FanGraphs 2011 Top 10 Prospects
Decreased Value: Johermyn Chavez, OF

I’ve been a pretty big supporter of Chavez since his days in the Jays organization (He was part of the loot, along with Brandon League, for Brandon Morrow) so it was more than a little disappointing – but not entirely unexpected – to see him struggle at double-A in 2011. Still just 21, he saw his wOBA drop from .410 to .304. His power also dried up as he went from having an ISO rate of .262 in a potent A-ball environment to .144 in a lesser (but still above-average) offensive-minded league. Chavez’ BABIP swung wildly along the way from .364 to .268. The good news is that his plate discipline did not change that much. His strikeout rate climbed by 2.6% and his walk rate also climbed… by 1%. The strong-armed outfielder will likely repeat double-A in 2012 but he’s still ahead of the curve in terms of age/development. He’ll probably never hit for average in the high minors or Majors but he should be able to improve upon his .212 and get up into the .250-.260 range if he can learn to better handle the off-speed stuff.

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Earlier this week, we began the series looking at the top disappointing prospects — who appeared on the preseason top 10 lists — for each American League East organization. Today, we’re continuing with the AL Central.

Cleveland Indians
FanGraphs 2011 Top 10 Prospects
Decreased Value: Levon Washington, OF

Washington was a high pick out of both high school and junior college and I was far from impressed with him both times. His 2011 season gives me even fewer reasons for optimism. The infielder-turned-outfielder showed some pretty big holes in his game while posting just a .311 wOBA in 298 at-bats in low-A ball. He hit .218, showed little power (as expected) with an ISO of .097 and struck out way too often (25.4 K%). Washington did walk at an impressive clip (14.0 BB%) but didn’t do much when he got on base (15 steals in 21 tries) even though speed is supposed to be his main weapon.

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Prospect ranking season is just around the corner here at FanGraphs. Starting at the end of October, the annual Top 10 Prospect lists will be back for a third year. While I work feverishly to whittle down those lists behind the scenes, let’s have a look back at the 2011 Top 10 lists and see which prospects disappointed in each organization, starting with the American League East.

New York Yankees
FanGraphs 2011 Top 10 Prospects
Decreased Value: Slade Heathcott, OF

Had I included RHP Andrew Brackman on my Top 10 list, he most certainly would have been listed here; thankfully I resisted temptation. Despite his horrendous season, the Yankees organization has to be pretty happy with the development of its other key prospects in 2011; few players saw their values decrease. Having to pick one from my list, I settled on Heathcott. The outfielder was drafted out of a Texas high school with a less-than-stellar reputation and a well-documented difficult past. The year started off well for Heathcott but then there was a brawl incited by the Yankees prospect and then a shoulder injury that wiped out the remainder of his season. The 2012 season will be a big one for Heathcott as he definitely has the tools to be a star.

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Major League Baseball has seen a subtle change in philosophy over the past few years. More and more teams are relying on their minor league systems to develop talent to fill big league holes, rather than focusing on the typically more expensive veteran players on the free agent market or via a trade. Unless, of course, you’re the San Francisco Giants organization.

This season, we’ve seen quite a few rookies play prominant roles on their respective clubs. Below, you’ll find a list of six position players in their first MLB seasons. Let’s find out how well they compare – both in output and financial considerations – to the players who filled their roles in 2010.

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The Tampa Bay Rays organization has kept pace with powerful organizations in the American League East division for the past few years for one key reason: The ability to develop cheap, high-impacting talent through minor league development.

Entering 2011, the Rays’ FanGraphs Top 30 prospect list began with Jeremy Hellickson, Matt Moore, and Desmond Jennings. Both Hellickson and Jennings have already cemented themselves as key MLB contributors . Moore – who was just promoted to the Majors for a ‘cup of coffee’ to finish off 2011 – should follow suit in ’12.

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With a starting rotation that already boasts the likes of Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Madison Bumgarner, and Jonathan Sanchez, the San Francisco Giants organization debuted yet another impressive starting pitcher over the weekend. Southpaw Eric Surkamp made a one-and-done appearance against he hapless Houston Astros but there is no doubt that he’ll be back after being optioned back to the minors after this start. Prior to the season, I ranked as the 11th best prospect in the Giants system.

Surkamp allowed just one run in six innings of work. He showed outstanding poise with 52 of his 87 pitches going for strikes (60%). He walked three batters but also struck out four. In his career, Surkamp has shown a tendency to induce fly-ball outs but six of his 10 in-play outs were recorded on the ground.

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From Clayton Kershaw to Chad Billingsley to Rubby de la Rosa (a recent victim of Tommy John surgery), the Los Angeles Dodgers have displayed a knack for developing top-flight pitching talent. The newest hurler to emerge is Nate Eovaldi, but he’s just the tip of the iceberg in what should be LA’s strong wave of young, cost-controllable talent. Other names to tuck away for future reference include Allen Webster, Zach Lee, Garrett Gould — and recent first-round pick, Chris Reed.

Eovaldi is probably the least-heralded prospect of the group. A former 11th-round selection in 2008 out of high school in Texas, he would have gone much higher if he hadn’t been slowed by Tommy John surgery in his junior year. He received an over-slot deal and has not had any major issues with his elbow in pro ball. Breaking out in 2011 at double-A, Eovaldi did a nice job of keeping runners off base (6.64 H/9) and struck out his fair share of batters (8.65 K/9). On the downside, the 21-year-old is a fly-ball pitcher and has struggled with his control (4.02 BB/9). Eovaldi is probably in the majors a little early, but his mid-90s fastball has a lot of promise; he just needs to learn to better-control his secondary pitches and learn the value of changing speeds.

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