Disappointing 2011 Prospects: AL Central
Earlier this week, we began the series looking at the top disappointing prospects — who appeared on the preseason top 10 lists — for each American League East organization. Today, we’re continuing with the AL Central.
Cleveland Indians
FanGraphs 2011 Top 10 Prospects
Decreased Value: Levon Washington, OF
Washington was a high pick out of both high school and junior college and I was far from impressed with him both times. His 2011 season gives me even fewer reasons for optimism. The infielder-turned-outfielder showed some pretty big holes in his game while posting just a .311 wOBA in 298 at-bats in low-A ball. He hit .218, showed little power (as expected) with an ISO of .097 and struck out way too often (25.4 K%). Washington did walk at an impressive clip (14.0 BB%) but didn’t do much when he got on base (15 steals in 21 tries) even though speed is supposed to be his main weapon.
Chicago White Sox
FanGraphs 2011 Top 10 Prospects
Decreased Value: Josh Phegley, C
You could definitely choose former No. 1 pick Jared Mitchell for this spot but he’s going to be on the White Sox Top 10 list (it’s still a very weak system) so I’ll wait and write about him then. Instead, I’ll pick on Phegley. I gave the catcher a mulligan for his ’10 season because he battled a rare blood condition that threatened his baseball career. The good news is that he not only came back but he reached triple-A. Unfortunately, he posted a .297 wOBA in double-A and then produced a triple-slash line of .253/.337/.380 in 79 triple-A plate appearances. His raw power has yet to develop in-game (.126 ISO in AA). Although he threw out 43% of base runners, his defense behind the plate remains a big question mark thanks to his receiving skills and lack of mobility.
Kansas City Royals
FanGraphs 2011 Top 10 Prospects
Decreased Value: Chris Dwyer, LHP
Prior to the start of the season many were calling the Royals 2011 collection of minor league prospects the best ever. Well, it should still be pretty good in ’12 but injuries and promotions have taken a big toll on the system. There were also some disappointing performances as with Dwyer. He did show good durability in 2011 with 141.1 innings at double-A, along with a solid strikeout rate of 8.02 K/9. Unfortunately, his walk rate sat at 4.97 BB/9 and he posted a 4.49 FIP (5.60 ERA). In 99.1 cummulative innings against right-handers, he walked 63 batters. The organization may want to consider moving the southpaw to the bullpen, much like it did with another disappointing minor league pitcher who was also taken in the 2009 draft – Aaron Crow. The No. 1 draft pick (12th overall) took to the bullpen role like a duck to water and the organization could almost build an entire bullpen out of this draft class with the likes of Crow, Dwyer, Louis Coleman, and Patrick Keating.
Minnesota Twins
FanGraphs 2011 Top 10 Prospects
Decreased Value: Alex Wimmers, RHP
There may have never been a more night-and-day start and end to a season for any pitcher. In his 2011 debut, Wimmers walked all six batters that he faced and then spent three months in extended spring training. The Twins’ 2010 No. 1 draft pick returned to high-A ball to end the year and closed out the season with a seven-inning no-hitter (minor league doubleheaders are always seven innings per game). Considering how the year began, Wimmers made a great comeback and finished the year with a 4.65 FIP and walk rate of 4.87 BB/9. An admirable recovery, yes, but you still expect a lot more from a No. 1 draft pick.
Detroit Tigers
FanGraphs 2011 Top 10 Prospects
Decreased Value: Daniel Fields, OF
The curious case of Fields really makes me wonder what’s up with the player development plan in the Tigers organization. The infielder-turned-outfielder was inexplicably rushed to high-A with nary an at-bat in rookie, short-season or low-A ball despite the fact he began the 2010 season as a teenager. When he was drafted, no scout that I know of confused him with an advanced prep player – especially considering that he was also learning a new position. Well, Fields posted a .329 wOBA at high-A in ’10 and then repeated the level again in ’11 and regressed even further: .297 wOBA. He doesn’t hit for power (.106 ISO) and doesn’t run (four steals) and doesn’t hit for average (.220). His lack of development is on the Detroit front office, and he joins a long list of disappointing top talents that includes Rick Porcello… Cale Iorg… Jeremy Bonderman… Andrew Miller… Cameron Maybin (who’s finally turning things around the further he distances himself from the organization).
Up Next: The AL West
Marc Hulet has been writing at FanGraphs since 2008. His work focuses on prospects and fantasy. Follow him on Twitter @marchulet.
You mean the Jeremy Bonderman that posted an xFIP- below 100 in each year before his injury?
The implication you make that the Tigers’ front office is at fault for those various players lack of development is misguided.
Iorg moved at a normal pace for someone of his age…he jsut never started hitting. Bonderman put up 18 WAR in basically 6.5 total seasons, including 17 WAR in his first five seasons. Then he blew out his arm and compiled 1.1 WAR over the next three seasons. Development problem? Maybin played two seasons in the system, all at appropriate levels. Miller played a grand total of 37 games with the Tigers. His failures are placed on the Tigers, lack of development? And Porcello has been a 2 WAR pitcher each year of his career (and is only 22 right now). Did the Tigers fail in developing him?
I don’t know if you can fault the Tigers for Porcello but there’s no doubt that he’s been a disappointment. Yeah 2 WAR is nice but at one time I believe he was the 2nd or 3rd best pitching prospect in baseball so you would expect more than just 2 wins a season. And yeah I know he is only 22 but he’s shown no improvement if you actually watch him. His sinker sinks less, his velocity is down, he still can’t command an offspeed pitch with any consistency and has no out pitch period, especially against lefties. Basically it looks like he is just throwing slop up there and hoping to get lucky, seemingly everything that is in the strikezone is over the heart of the plate.
You have to remember that this was a guy that many scouts considered to be the best HS pitching prospect since Beckett and was touching 98mph with a plus curveball for his age when they drafted him. Now 3 years later without any reported injury he is a high 80s low 90s pitch to contact groundball pitcher. Something doesn’t sound right to me.
It’s clear that a game of telephone took place on that one.
Scout: “He’s got a good moving fastball at 91-93, touching 95. In terms of quality, he’s likely the most polished HS arm since Beckett.”
Reporter 1: “He’s got a good moving fastball at 95, drawing comparisons to Josh Beckett.”
Reporter 2: “He sits at 95 and reaches the upper 90s, with a Beckett-like hammer curve.”
You see that a good deal. People absolutely love to exaggerate fastball velocity. Think of how many current pitchers are described as having a fastball in the “mid 90s,” and then look at the data for average fastball velocities, and you’ll see that that over the last two years, five guys have average velocities above 94, and one (!) over 95.
Yeah you’re probably right about that but even so as a Tigers fan I know I’ve seen him touch atleast 96 according to the TV gun(it was game 163 in 09) but since then I don’t think I’ve seen him more than 93. And if he has it was obviously only once or twice and early in the game because after about the 3rd inning I don’t think he can throw over 91.
I don’t know if it was the Tigers handling of him(personally I don’t, because I think you can learn at the MLB level ie Kershaw), bad scouting reports of him or just Porcello himself but I think it’s hard to argue that he hasn’t been a disappointing according to what he was expected to be.
Interesting that you didn’t mention Ryan Perry, but instead Bonderman who was fine until his health implosion
I understand the mystification with the handling of Fields, and when I saw the first part of this series assumed he would be the Tiger rep. There are a couple of things I don’t understand, though.
First is the idea that he “regressed even further” this year. It’s my understanding a .329 wOBA is roughly league average. Achieving that as a teenage center fielder (and converted shortstop) in the Florida State League seems like quite an accomplishment. I could see saying that makes his 2011 season even more frustrating, but “regressed even further” makes it sound like a failure right from the start.
I would also perhaps take issue with the idea that the Rick Porcello and Jeremy Bonderman should be lumped in with Cale Iorg and Andrew Miller. Porcello is roughly a 2-win pitcher for the past three seasons despite being only 22 years old for the 2011 season. Bonderman was a 6-win pitcher in 2006 and well on his way to repeating or improving on those numbers in 2007 before having a freak injury that seemed to permanently rob him of his mid-90s velocity and effectiveness.
I also agree there seems to be a hitch in the Tigers’ player development, and the Tigers themselves seem to agree since they’ve been cleaning house down there all season when it comes to their development staffing. But it should be noted in the past few years they have flipped quite a few prospects in their system for major league players, and those prospects rarely come back to haunt them.
Jair Jurrjens aside, the Tigers have shipped out a lot of prospects over the past five years or so, and very few of them have stung in retrospect. Do we think the Tigers’ development program poisoned these players – who had skills that were still intriguing apparently – so thoroughly that they never recovered? I wonder if their biggest sin, rather than rushing players, is overestimating their ability to turn nice scouting reports into quality major leaguers.
I can get on board with most of this but Rick Porcello’s development has been a big disappointment for me. He still shows the potential of (at worst) a number 2 starter but he’s never had the chance to craft his secondary pitches. Seems that every time he takes the mound without his best sinker he gets rocked. He’s obviously still young and probably has a great career ahead of him but most of it will come long after his cost controlled years are over (and probably with another team).
I have my questions about Detroit’s ability to develop position players but they so rarely have any bluechip position prospects it’s hard to know what’s going on.
Probably should have removed the Miguel Cabrera tag on that one…
I’d have thought Kyle Gibson would have been the pick for the Twins, or maybe Aaron Hicks.
The Twins have so much to be disappointed about in 2011, I’m not sure enumerating the various bad spots is really a great exercise to do… Well, maybe if you are a White Sox or Tigers fan it is.
Tonny John surgery is a disappointment, sure, but Gibson’s year was pretty good up until that. And TJ isn’t a death sentence by any means, just a delay. As for Hicks, he’s been a disappointment for so long that picking him this year seems redundant. Wimmers, on the other hand…last year’s first round pick? THAT was a disappointment.
I agree on all fronts, though in a “what have you done for me lately” sense, Wimmers has rejuvenated his stock.
For Bonderman, early on he was expected to develop into a No. 1 guy but never reached his ceiling. He was a decent pitcher and had some flashes of brilliance but he was supposed to be a top flight guy but was building an A.J. Burnett type of frustrating career before injuries wiped out his career.
Obviously I can’t say that Detroit absolutely, without a doubt played a part in the failed development of each prospect listed but you have to admit there is a pretty big list of high-ceiling talent that came through Detroit’s system and failed to develop as projected. It’s food for thought, more than anything.
The Tigers have their share of failed prospects but they also produce a consistent stream of intriguing hitters seemingly out of nowhere (Boesch, Raburn, Scott Sizemore, Casper Wells… even guys like Joyce even Granderson might fit here). Marc, were these guys on anyone’s radar in the low minors?
The funny thing about that list of guys is each of them were moved slowly, if anything.
I think you’re onto something there. The Tigers have a reputation for rushing their top prospects which leaves them incomplete when they reach the majors. I can’t help but thing of the Rays and their agonizingly slow (yet brilliant) development plan.
Marc:
Bonderman was called up way too early. I think most can appreciate that, because of that, his career early on was filled with inconsistent moments as he tried to figure out a third pitch at the big league level to get LH hitters out.
At the same time, look at the development. Here are his FIP numbers from 03 (when he was 20 years old, btw) through 06:
4.69
4.27
3.90
3.27
His WAR numbers in those years were:
1.4
2.9
3.4
6.1
That goes beyond “flashes of brilliance”. The guy posted a 6 WAR season and 3.27 FIP at the age of 23 in the American League when scoring was still at a reasonably high level around the league. He then started 07 very hot until a shoulder issue ruined that season, which was followed by a blood clot in his arm in 08 that no one could have predicted was coming. You’re just wrong when it comes to Bonderman in this instance.
As for the other guys, Maybin was considered a top prospect in Detroit (good enough to net them Cabrera in a deal), and I don’t see how they ruined him as a player. His issues with contact have always been there. I don’t see how Iorg can even be considered in the group of disappointing prospects on that level. Paying a ton of money for him doesn’t make him a first round talent after doing nothing baseball related for two years.
I agree they hurt Miller’s development, and I think they at least stunted Porcello’s growth by calling him up so soon. I also believe they screwed Fields up by calling him up to A ball.
Of the Royals obvious three disappointments (well, four, if you count Lamb, you picked Dwyer over Myers and Montgomery? Of those three he was clearly Most Likely to Disappoint entering the season; it was merely like fulfilling destiny. As a Royals fan I can’t decide whether Myers or Montgomery inspires more angst at the moment, and Dwyer hardly dents my list.
I’d vote Montgomery only because he could’ve been something to look forward to for next season with the current rotation in shambles. Now it seems the Royals don’t have any reliable, young pitchers who can throw strikes. I want to be excited about Danny Duffy, but his control went from meh to wtf pretty frequently this year. The Royals need arms way more than Myers’ bat in the immediate future.
I guess I’m much more sanguine on Duffy. Compared to say, Jimmy Gobble or Chris George, his rookie campaign was just fine. At least it’s hard to say he’s just not ready or will definitely need to move to the pen.
The Royals don’t seem to be too worried about Montgomery. They seem to be looking at it as, “when he starts throwing strikes, he’ll be in the mix.” I’m actually pretty optimistic that they are going all Rays on pitcher development and not rushing them just because the big league staff included Kyle Davies until recently.
And while I agree with Dwyer’s inclusion on the list, the Royals were very encouraged by his last ten starts, where he was quite good (tells you how bad he was until then). They seem to think he “got it.”
I think Myers’ injury issues can reasonably be his excuse.
But really, I’m not sure there is a more disappointing season for a pretty hyped prospect, who was advertised as very advanced, than Christian Colon. I think people are forgetting about him a bit because of the emergence of Gio and Escobar solidifying SS defensively.
I don’t normally post but the questioning of the Tigers organizational philosophy seems at best misguided. If you want to question the organization for rushing Perry or Oliver I think a case can be made, and I can see why some would question the handling of Andrew Miller (who mysteriously lost 3+ mph on his fastball, though it’s hard to tie that to his being rushed), but the other players listed here?
Porcello is a steadily improving 22 year old who has 6 WAR already despite below average velocity (which seems difficult to pin on being rushed). He’s been hurt by poor defense this season but should be a solid #3 for years to come.
From opening day 06 to the midway point of 07, over 333.2 IP, Bonderman was 24-9 with 311Ks, 89BBs, an ERA under 4, an even lower FIP, and accumulated roughly 9 WAR over 1.5 seasons. He was a top-10 or 15 MLB pitcher over that time frame. Then he got hurt, tried to pitch through it, and never recovered.
Maybin clobbered A+ and AA in his last season in Detroit before struggling during a 24-game cameo in Detroit. A few years later he looks like rising star in SD. His struggles as a Marlin are a product of spending one September in Detroit?
Cale Iorg began to struggle as a 23 year old in AA, then repeated the level. How was he rushed?
Fields was above league average in 2010, then regressed despite repeating the level. This is evidence that he was rushed?
On the other side of the ledger, do the Tigers get credit for benefiting from “rushing” Avila (less than 100 games above lo-A ball), Francisco Martinez (whose handling of a tough assignment turned into Fister), Verlander (20 total starts in minors), Boesch (15 games in AAA), or Porcello (see above)?
I’ve heard multiple White Sox fans and at least one scout say that Phegley plays the worst catcher defense they’ve ever seen. He’s awful behind the plate, but his bat isn’t nearly good enough to play at 1st. He’s basically a non-prospect at this point.
Is there any reason Cale Iorg even fits in with those other guys? Iorg never showed flashes of brilliance in professional baseball, at least not with the bat. That’s a talent evaluation issue, not a talent development issue.
I think the only Tiger you mentioned that is an authentic bust was Andrew Miller.
Enough has been said about Bonderman in the comments already. That was a pretty stupid thing to write. Tsk tsk.
As far as the Porcello issue goes, the only guys that I can find that are younger than Kid Rick with a similar (or better) track record in the majors are Pineda and Bumgarner. To imply that Porcello is a bust because he has been about league average in his age 20-22 seasons (104 FIP-, 100 xFIP-) is incredibly ignorant.
Iorg would be a bust if anyone expected him to be a star after coming back from his missionary duty. Most of us were thinking he had about a 2-3 WAR ceiling as a all-glove-no-hit SS if everything went perfectly. Not particularly disappointing.
And it’s kind of a lazy move to imply that Maybin is now living up to his potential simply because he’s out of the Tigers’ system. Maybe it’s because he’s 24 and finally entering his prime?
Seems like everything on this site about the Tigers on an organizational level is either poorly researched or an unfounded hit piece. Not sure what this one is yet.
Oh hey, another showing from the ultra-lazy “Tigers don’t know how to develop any prospects because their staff is a bunch of greedy morons who rush everyone” meme. We even got the “I didn’t bother to research anything about Bonderman’s career” element, as well as the “I am going to blame everything that went wrong with Miller and Maybin on the staff” element. It’s like I’m reading Bleacher Report.
The Tigers problem has been drafting moreso than development. Their prospect failure rate isn’t really any worse than any other middle-of-the-road system, and if anything they should be given credit for recognizing how much value Miller and Maybin had and bailing before everyone else figured them out. Guys like Andrew Miller fail all the time, in every system, no matter how much time they get. TINSTAAPP was acronym’d for a reason. And at the same time, this is the same organization that rushed “Verlander” into superstardom, developed Granderson, Joyce, Sizemore, and Boesch into solid big league players, and turned Alex Avila into the best catcher in baseball despite skipping AAA entirely.
I’m not suggesting that the Tigers development system is beyond reproach, but treating them like the Littlefield-era Pirates is completely ridiculous and without merit.
I don’t think there’s any question the Tigers have rushed a lot of guys through the minors, and it’s hurt some of them. I don’t think Miller ever developed the breaking ball in the minors that he was going to need, and they rushed him into the rotation in 07 and basically said “just throw fastballs”. I think they did the same with Porcello in 09, and he’s still trying to find that secondary pitch that gets him outs consistently. What they did to Fields was insane. They deserve criticism when those things happen.
The issue in this case is that, while they may not have managed Bonderman well as an asset financially (calling him up at least a year before he was ready, starting his arb clock sooner than they should have), he was clearly a #1 or 2 caliber starter prior to his arm issues that basically ended his career. I also don’t remember anyone ever suggesting that Bonderman was destined to be one of the 10 best pitchers in baseball when he was in the minors, so even if he was what Marc suggested, he overstated the case in that instance to make his point.
Iorg doesn’t belong in that discussion, and outside of calling Maybin up to the big leagues for a month in 07 before they should have, I don’t think they hurt his development at all. When Maybin was in the minors in Detroit, he was viewed as a top 5-10 prospect in baseball because he was performing where he was at.
There’s plenty of question whether aggressive promotions have hurt guys. What makes anyone think Andrew Miller would have developed sitting in the minors? He only spent 2 seasons in the Tigers organization and the Marlins didn’t see much benefit of putting him in the minors either. Why is it just assumed that because he was promoted aggressively, that was the reason he didn’t plan out? Pitching prospects bust all the time regardless of the promotion speed.
There’s this strange idea that gets thrown around that players need to learn everything in the minor leagues because they stop developing in the big leagues. Plenty of pitchers get to the big leagues and do their developing
It’s your basic “correlation implies causation” argument. System A promotes aggressively, System A has busts, therefore that’s the reason why. I really don’t see the Tigers having more busts than any other middle of the road system, and they have the same amount of quality big leaguers you would expect for a middle of the road system.
I didn’t realize Tiger fans were hoping RP would be a 2 win player.he was hyped as a 1-2 starter and be just hasn’t shown the improvements you would experience at this point in his career. So yeah I would considered him a disappointment and if I am looking for patterns in a system as far as development goes, I would absolutely put him down as a negative. J don’t see what Marc said that offended everyone so badly.