When the Giants organization nabbed Brandon Belt in the fifth round of the 2009 draft the selection went by with nary a whisper of appreciation or a ripple of applause. Fast forward less than two years and the first baseman is one of the early favorites for Rookie of the Year in the National League and his presence on the roster has sent 12-year veteran Aubrey Huff from first base to right field.
The Top 10 lists are in the can – see the site’s main page if you missed your favorite team’s list – so it’s time to rank the Top 100 prospects. Click on each player’s name to visit their player pages and you can also follow a link to each player’s 2011 prospect scouting report (found in the Top 10 lists).
I’ll also be hosting a chat later today at noon eastern, so please feel free to submit a question or comment.
100-80
100. Austin Romine | Catcher | New York AL
99. Yorman Rodriguez | Outfielder | Cincinnati
98. Mark Rogers | RHP | Milwaukee
97. Chris Carpenter | RHP | Chicago NL
96. Alex Wimmers | RHP | Minnesota
95. Brent Morel | Third base | Chicago AL
94. Carlos Matias | RHP | St. Louis
93. Joe Kelly | RHP | St. Louis
92. Tyler Skaggs | LHP | Arizona
91. Trevor May | RHP | Philadelphia
90. Luis Heredia | RHP | Pittsburgh
89. Zach Lee | RHP | Los Angeles NL
88. Arodys Vizcaino | RHP | Atlanta
87. Tanner Scheppers | RHP | Texas
86. Chris Carter | First base | Oakland
85. Tyler Chatwood | RHP | Los Angeles AL
84. Yonder Alonso | First base | Cincinnati
83. Chris Colon | Shortstop | Kansas City
82. Drew Pomeranz | LHP | Cleveland
81. Wilin Rosario | Catcher | Colorado
61-80
80. Jared Mitchell | Outfielder | Chicago AL
79. Carlos Perez | Catcher | Toronto
78. Craig Kimbrel | RHP | Atlanta
77. Stetson Allie | RHP | Pittsburgh
76. Yasmani Grandal | Catcher | Cincinnati
75. Deck McGuire | RHP | Toronto
74. Jake McGee | LHP | Tampa Bay
73. Anthony Ranaudo | RHP | Boston
72. Anthony Rizzo | First base | San Diego
71. Drake Britton | LHP | Boston
70. Jason Kipnis | Second base | Cleveland
69. Nick Castellanos | Third base | Detroit
68. Zack Cox | Third base | St. Louis
67. Matt Dominguez | Third base | Florida
66. Tony Sanchez | Catcher | Pittsburgh
65. Billy Hamilton | Shortstop | Cincinnati
64. Jordan Lyles | RHP | Houston
63. Aaron Miller | LHP | Los Angeles NL
62. Nolan Arenado | Third base | Colorado
61. Matt Davidson | Third base | Arizona
41-60
60. J.P. Arencibia | Catcher | Toronto
59. Grant Green | Shortstop | Oakland
58. Nick Franklin | Shortstop | Seattle
57. Dellin Betances | RHP | New York AL
56. Trey McNutt | RHP | Chicago NL
55. Alex White | RHP | Cleveland
54. Simon Castro | RHP | San Diego
53. Jose Iglesias | Shortstop | Boston
52. Brett Jackson | Outfielder | Chicago NL
51. Jean Segura | Second base | Los Angeles AL
50. Brody Colvin | RHP | Philadelphia
49. Jarred Cosart | RHP | Philadelphia
48. Jake Odorizzi | RHP | Kansas City
47. Wilmer Flores | Shortstop | New York NL
46. Miguel Sano | 3B/SS | Minnesota
45. Danny Duffy | LHP | Kansas City
44. Aaron Hicks | Outfielder | Minnesota
43. Derek Norris | Catcher | Washington
42. Devin Mesoraco | Catcher | Cincinnati
41. Randall Delgado | RHP | Atlanta
21-40
40. Gary Sanchez | Catcher | New York AL
39. Kyle Gibson | RHP | Minnesota
38. Jonathan Singleton | First base | Philadelphia
37. Lonnie Chisenhall | Third base | Cleveland
36. Chris Archer | RHP | Tampa Bay
35. Dee Gordon | Shortstop | Los Angeles NL
34. Brett Lawrie | 2B/3B | Toronto
33. Zack Wheeler | RHP | San Francisco
32. Jarrod Parker | RHP | Arizona
31. Martin Perez | LHP | Texas
30. Casey Kelly | RHP | San Diego
29. Mike Minor | LHP | Atlanta
28. Tyler Matzek | LHP | Colorado
27. Jurickson Profar | SS | Texas
26. Chris Sale | LHP | Chicago AL
25. Kyle Drabek | RHP | Toronto
24. Desmond Jennings | Outfielder | Tampa Bay
23. John Lamb | LHP | Kansas City
22. Jacob Turner | RHP | Detroit
21. Mike Montgomery | LHP | Kansas City
1-20
20. Freddie Freeman | First base | Atlanta
19. Jameson Taillon | RHP | Pittsburgh
18. Manny Banuelos | LHP | New York AL
17. Dustin Ackley | Second base | Seattle
16. Brandon Belt | First base | San Francisco
15. Michael Pineda | RHP | Seattle
14. Shelby Miller | RHP | St. Louis
13. Manny Machado | SS | Baltimore
12. Zach Britton | LHP | Baltimore
11. Matt Moore | LHP | Tampa Bay
10. Wil Myers | Outfielder | Kansas City
9. Aroldis Chapman | LHP | Cincinnati
8. Eric Hosmer | First base | Kansas City
7. Mike Moustakas | Third base | Kansas City
6. Julio Teheran | RHP | Atlanta
5. Jesus Montero | Catcher | New York AL
4. Domonic Brown | Outfielder | Philadelphia
3. Jeremy Hellickson | RHP | Tampa Bay
2. Bryce Harper | Outfielder | Washington
1. Mike Trout | Outfielder | Los Angeles AL
Will Rhymes has long been a favorite of mine. He entered spring training in 2011 looking to carve out a bench role on a veteran club. But the young player with 191 career MLB at-bats ended up winning the starting second base job for the Tigers, according to manager Jim Leyland. Rhymes edged out early 2010 potential rookie of the year Scott Sizemore, an offensive-minded infielder who fell on hard times and posted a wOBA of just .284.
Rhymes is an interesting player who stands just 5’9” and 155 lbs. Despite his diminutive frame, he knows how to handle the bat. With his first taste of the Majors, the infielder batted .304/.350/.414 in 2010. A left-handed hitter, Rhymes batted more than .300 against southpaws at both the MLB level and at triple-A. He’s shown the ability to hit for average throughout his minor league career, while also stealing 20+ bases. His walk rate was OK at 6.6 BB% but his strikeout rate was impressive at just 8.4 K%; he puts the ball in play and also showed a propensity for line drives (23.2 LD%). If we’re looking for negatives to Rhymes’ game, aside from the lack of power, his defense is average at best. He has sure hands, but his range is iffy and he doesn’t have the best foot work around the bag.
It will be interesting to see what he can do over the course of a full season. There is no guarantee, though, that Rhymes will get to play an entire year at the keystone. Veteran Carlos Guillen is currently on the disabled list with knee soreness. He’s owed $13 million for 2011 so he’ll have a spot as soon as he’s healthy. Despite the feel-good story for Rhymes as the 2011 season looms, he’s likely not the long-term answer at the position. He’s going to be 28 years old on April 1.
Rhymes will bring important elements to the lineup. Firstly, he brings some smart base running and some speed; Rhymes and Austin Jackson could provide a real spark at the top of the lineup. As well, Rhymes would fit in well at the top of the lineup in the No. 2 hole. If he can maintain his .350 on-base average, he could score a lot of runs – or help move the runners ahead of him into scoring position for the big boppers like Magglio Ordonez, Victor Martinez, and Miguel Cabrera.
This move may not receive a lot of attention, but the addition of Rhymes offers an important element to the Tigers’ 2011 starting lineup.
* This wraps up the Top 10 lists for all 30 organizations in baseball. FanGraphs is the only place you can get 300+ scouting reports free of charge, so I hope you enjoyed them.
Up next is the compilation list of the Top 100 prospects in baseball, which you should see next Monday. I’ll also be hosting a chat the same day, March 28, at 12:00 Eastern. It’s your chance to ask any prospect-related question that you’ve been dying to discuss.
The Kansas City Royals
2010 MLB Record: 67-95 (fifth place, AL Central)
Minor League Power Ranking: 1st (out of 30)
Click for: Last Year’s Top 10 Prospect List
The Prospects
1. Mike Moustakas, 3B
Acquired: 2007 1st round (California HS)
Pro Experience: 4 seasons
2010 MiLB Level: AA/AAA
Opening Day Age: 22
Estimated Peak WAR: 6.0
Notes: The top prospect for the top minor league system in baseball, Moustakas holds immense potential. The third baseman had a modest start to his pro career, thanks to a temporary hiccup in high-A ball (although he was there at a young age). He then exploded in 2011, reaching the potential that was expected of him since becoming the second overall pick during the ’07 amateur draft. Moustakas killed the ball in double-A with a triple-slash line of .347/.413/.687 in 259 at-bats. His power was off the charts (.340 ISO), and he also showed good control of the strike zone while posting a strikeout rate of 16.2 K% – which is good for a young power hitter. He even had the highest walk rate of his young career at 8.7 BB%. Upon a promotion to triple-A, his patience evaporated (3.4 BB%) but he still managed to hit .293/.314/.564 in 225 at-bats. The big knock on Moustakas is in the field. Despite a strong arm, he struggles with his range and foot work. He has the bat to move to first base, but Eric Hosmer will definitely have something to say about that. Moustakas’ 36 home runs and 124 RBI over the course of the full season is eye popping and he shouldn’t need much more than half a season in triple-A before taking over the hot corner in Kansas City.
The Tampa Bay Rays
2010 MLB Record: 96-66 (first place, AL East)
Minor League Power Ranking: 2nd (out of 30)
Click for: Last Year’s Top 10 Prospect List
The Prospects
1. Jeremy Hellickson, RHP
Acquired: 2005 4th round (Iowa HS)
Pro Experience: 5 seasons
2010 MiLB Level: AAA/MLB
Opening Day Age: 24
Estimated Peak WAR: 6.0
Notes: Hellickson stands to be one of the most promising rookie pitchers in the Majors in 2011. The 23-year-old hurler does have some hurdles to clear, though. The Rays have a lot of pitching depth so he may end up as a long reliever to begin the season — or he could open 2011 in Triple-A (although he has nothing left to prove in the minors). Hellickson has the ceiling of a No. 1 or 2 pitcher and he held his own in a brief MLB trial in ’10. He showed good strikeout numbers while also showcasing above-average control for his age. I would like to see him improve upon his ground ball rate from triple-A (37%); being a fly-ball pitcher in the potent AL East is never easy. He throws with a three-quarter arm slot and utilizes an easy delivery that doesn’t put much stress on his shoulder, which bodes well for the future. Hellickson has a good fastball-changeup combination, and improved command of his curveball could transform him into a Rookie of the Year candidate if he receives the opportunity to start.
The Toronto Blue Jays
2010 MLB Record: 85-77 (4th place, AL East)
Minor League Power Ranking: 3rd (out of 30)
Click for: Last Year’s Top 10 Prospect List
1. Kyle Drabek, RHP
Acquired: 2006 1st round (Texas HS)
Pro Experience: 5 seasons
2010 MiLB Level: AA/MLB
Opening Day Age: 23
Estimated Peak WAR: 5.0
Notes: The key to the Roy Halladay trade with Philadelphia, Drabek has a chance to break camp in 2011 with the Jays despite lacking triple-A experience. The son of former Cy Young award winner Doug Drabek, the rookie has an advanced feel for pitching given his age and experience level. He held his own during a brief MLB trial (4.08 FIP in 3 starts) in 2010 but still has to sharpen his overall command and secondary pitches after missing time due to Tommy John surgery early in his career. Drabek has a solid repertoire that includes a 90-95 mph fastball and plus curveball. He also has a cutter and changeup, both of which need development. During his time in double-A, Drabek posted a solid strikeout rate (7.33 K/9) with average control (3.78 BB/9) and showed the ability to produce an average to above-average ground-ball rate. I’m not crazy about his mechanics. Drabek has a quick, short-arm action and three-quarter arm slot. He also throws across his body a bit and doesn’t use his legs as much as he should. If everything develops as hoped, though, the pitching prospect could develop into a No. 2 starter.
The Atlanta Braves
2010 MLB Record: 91-71 (second place, NL East)
Minor League Power Ranking: 4th (out of 30)
Click for: Last Year’s Top 10 Prospect List
The Prospects
1. Julio Teheran, RHP
Acquired: 2007 non-drafted free agent (Colombia)
Pro Experience: 3 seasons
2010 MiLB Level: A-/A+/AA
Opening Day Age: 20
Estimated Peak WAR: 5.0
Notes: Teheran has been a much-hyped prospect since his amateur days, but his career was slowed initially by some injury (shoulder) concerns. The right-hander pitched just 15.0 innings during his pro debut in 2008 and followed that up with an 81.1 inning season. Teheran’s workload then jumped to 142.2 innings in 2010 when he spent time at three different levels and finished the season in double-A. The young hurler has excellent control for his age (1.85 BB/9 in 63.1 high-A innings) and does a nice job of commanding his three-pitch repertoire (fastball, changeup, curveball). His heater sits in the 93-96 mph range and has posted double-digit strikeout rates. He repeats his delivery well but slings the ball at times. His arm angle is low-three-quarters and there is a little bit of effort to his action. I would think that his arm angle would better suit a slider than a curveball, but he makes the latter pitch work. Teheran should open 2011 in double-A and could see the Majors by August, depending on the club’s needs. Just 20, he has the potential to develop into a No. 1 starter before he turns 25.
The Philadelphia Phillies
2010 MLB Record: 97-65 (first place, NL East)
Minor League Power Ranking: 5th (out of 30)
Click for: Last Year’s Top 10 Prospect List
1. Domonic Brown, OF
Acquired: 2006 20th round (Georgia HS)
Pro Experience: 5 seasons
2010 MiLB Level: AA/AAA/MLB
Opening Day Age: 23
Estimated Peak WAR: 5.5
Notes: Brown had an impressive showing in the minors in 2010 by posting a wOBA of .427 in 65 double-A games and .417 in 28 triple-A contests. He was also able to sustain his ’09 power outburst and saw his ISO rate stay above .200 for the second straight season (peaking at .284 in AA). Although he strikes out a fair bit (21.6 K% in ’10), Brown shows good patience and posted a walk rate of 10.7 BB% in double-A. He showed the rough edges of his game during a brief MLB trial in which he produced a triple-slash line of .210/.257/.355 in 62 at-bats. His strikeout rate also skyrocketed to 38.7 K%. To be more consistent at the plate, I’d like to see the prospect stay back a little more; if he can avoid getting out of his front foot so early, he may be able to drive the ball more. Defensively, Brown has a strong arm and good range in right field; he just needs more experience to sharpen his overall skills in the field. Despite his struggles in The Show, Brown is the favorite – and deservedly so – to replace the recently-departed Jayson Werth, although he’ll likely miss at least the first month of the 2011 season after breaking his hamate bone. He won’t post Jason Heyward like numbers in 2011 (sorry, Bill James projections but I think The Fans are a little closer to reality) but Philadelphia fans will be happy that the organization refused to part with Brown during the Roy Halladay trade.
Toronto really is the dark horse candidate in the vaunted American League East division. The club will face an uphill battle for division supremacy against the likes of Boston, New York and Tampa Bay. But each club has its weaknesses, so a fourth or fifth place finish for the Canadian club is not guaranteed. New manager John Farrell is a bit of a wild card. Fans of the team have no idea what to expect from the first-time manager. The strength of the team appears to be its pitching, so the former big league hurler and pitching coach should be the right man for the job.