The National League Wild Card race is wide open, with eight of the league’s 15 teams separated by a grand total of four and a half games in the standings. Five of those teams are currently below .500, their flaws on display on a daily basis — and some of those teams are at a particular disadvantage when it comes to their defenses.

On Wednesday, I investigated what a handful of the major defensive metrics — Defensive Runs Saved, Ultimate Zone Rating, Statcast’s Fielding Run Value (FRV), and our catcher framing metric (hereafter abbreviated as FRM, as it is on our stat pages) — told us about the teams with the best defenses. Some of them appear to be playoff-bound, while others are barely hanging onto hope thanks in part to those defenses, among them the Diamondbacks. Read the rest of this entry »

The Guardians rate as one of baseball’s bigger surprises. After finishing 76-86 last year — their worst record since 2012 — they’ve rebounded to go 57-33 thus far, and entered Wednesday with the AL’s best record. Their offense is much more potent than it was last year, and despite losing ace Shane Bieber for the season due to Tommy John surgery, they rank second in the league in run prevention at 3.87 runs per game.

While Cleveland’s staff owns the AL’s second-highest strikeout rate (24.2%), a good amount of credit for the team’s run prevention belongs to its defense. By my evaluation of a handful of the major defensive metrics — Defensive Runs Saved, Ultimate Zone Rating, Statcast’s Fielding Run Value (FRV), and our catcher framing metric (hereafter abbreviated as FRM, as it is on our stat pages) — the Guardians rate as the majors’ second-best defensive team thus far this season. The Yankees, who spent much of the first half atop the AL East before a 5-16 slide knocked them into second place, are the only team ahead of them.

On an individual level, even a full season of data isn’t enough to get the clearest picture of a player’s defense, and it’s not at all surprising that a 600-inning sample produces divergent values across the major metrics. After all, they’re based on differing methodologies that produce varying spreads in runs from top to bottom, spreads that owe something to what they don’t measure, as well as how much regression is built into their systems. Pitchers don’t have UZRs or FRVs, catchers don’t have UZRs, and DRS tends to produce the most extreme ratings. Still, within this aggregation I do think we get enough signal at this point in the season to make it worth checking in; I don’t proclaim this to be a bulletproof methodology so much as a good point of entry into a broad topic. Read the rest of this entry »

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The Red Sox may never entirely live down the 2020 trade of Mookie Betts, but four years and change later, Boston’s last man standing from that deal is enjoying a breakout. Catcher Connor Wong just reeled off a 17-game hitting streak that spanned four weeks, and even made a case for a spot on the AL All-Star team, though he fell short on that front.

The 28-year-old Wong began his streak with a single off White Sox right-hander Jake Woodford on June 6, and added another single off Tim Hill later in the game. Despite taking a three-day paternity leave from June 24–27, he started 16 of Boston’s next 23 games, sprinkling in four other two-hit games.

With his single off Trevor Rogers last Tuesday, Wong extended his streak to 17 games, the longest by any Red Sox player this season and tied for the seventh-longest of any player this year; Phillies catcher J.T. Realmuto is one of three other players who also had a 17-gamer. The longest hitting streak ever for a catcher is 34 games, set by the Padres’ Benito Santiago in 1987. The closest any catcher has come to approaching Santiago in the last decade was in 2019, when the Mets’ Wilson Ramos went 23 games; all of the other hitting streaks by catchers of at least 20 games happened in 2003 or earlier. Read the rest of this entry »

Willie Mays was already a superstar by the time the Giants moved across the country following the 1957 season, yet the denizens of San Francisco did not exactly embrace him. They took much more quickly to Orlando Cepeda, who homered against the Dodgers in his major league debut on April 15, 1958, the team’s first game at Seals Stadium, its temporary new home. The slugging 20-year-old first baseman, nicknamed “The Baby Bull” — in deference to his father Pedro “The Bull” Cepeda, a star player in his own right in their native Puerto Rico — was a perfect fit for San Francisco and its culture. He helped to infuse excitement into what had been a sixth-place team the year before, winning NL Rookie of the Year honors in 1958 and kicking off a 17-year career that included an MVP award, a World Series championship, and an induction into the National Baseball Hall of Fame, not to mention a statue outside Oracle Park.

Sadly, 10 days after Mays’ death at the age of 93, the 86-year-old Cepeda passed away as well. The Giants and the Cepeda family announced his death on Friday night — fittingly, during a game against the Dodgers; fans at Oracle Park stood to observe a moment of silence. “Our beloved Orlando passed away peacefully at home this evening, listening to his favorite music and surrounded by his loved ones,” said Nydia Fernandez, his second of three wives, in the statement. No cause of death was provided.

As the second Black Puerto Rican to play in the AL or NL, after Roberto Clemente, Cepeda became a hero in his homeland as well as a favorite of Giants fans. He spent nine seasons with the Giants (1958-66) before trades to the Cardinals (1966–68) and Braves (1969–72), followed by brief stints with the A’s (1972), Red Sox (1973), and Royals (1974) at the tail end of his career. The 6-foot-2, 210-pound righty was a middle-of-the-lineup force on three pennant winners, including the 1967 champion Cardinals, and was selected for an All-Star team 11 times, including two per year from 1959–62; he was the first Puerto Rican player to start an All-Star Game in the first of those seasons. He was the first player to win both the Rookie of the Year and MVP awards unanimously; Albert Pujols is the only one to replicate that feat. Cepeda finished his career with 2,351 hits, 379 homers, 142 steals, and a lifetime batting line of .297/.350/.499 (133 OPS+).

Not everything came easily for Cepeda. If not for the pitcher-friendliness of the Giants’ home ballparks — first Seals Stadium and then Candlestick Park — as well as a series of knee injuries that led to 10 surgeries, he might have hit at least 500 home runs. His path to the Hall of Fame took an extreme detour due to a conviction for smuggling marijuana, which resulted in a 10-month stint in federal prison as well as a humiliating fall from grace in Puerto Rico. Only after his release and his conversion to Buddhism was he able to rehabilitate his image and work his way back into the game’s good graces, a process that culminated with his election to the Hall of Fame by the Veterans Committee in 1999, 25 years after his final game. He was the second Puerto Rican player inducted, preceded only by Clemente. Read the rest of this entry »

Willie Mays was the gold standard. We can debate whether he was the greatest baseball player who ever lived or merely on the short list of those with a claim to the title. Based upon both the legend and the statistics, we’re on more solid ground declaring that Mays was the game’s greatest all-around player, accounting for his skill and achievement at the plate, on the bases, and in the field. Combining tremendous power, exceptional speed that factored on both sides of the ball, and preternatural grace afield, the man could do it all on the diamond, and he did it with an endearing, charismatic flair. “The Say Hey Kid” — a nickname bestowed upon him when he was so fresh on the scene that he didn’t know his teammates’ names — projected a youthful exuberance and an innocence that made him an icon.

Mays began his professional career while still in high school, with the Birmingham Black Barons, signing a $250-a-month contract in July 1948, when he was just 17 years old. He was supposed to return to Birmingham this week, one of three Negro Leagues alumni from the 1920-48 period — along with Bill Greason and Ron Teasley — slated to attend a major league game tonight between the Cardinals and Giants at historic Rickwood Field, the country’s oldest professional ballpark. Sadly, Mays passed away two days ago, in an assisted living facility, at the age of 93.

Willie Mays gave this statement to Dusty Baker on Monday, a day before Willie passed, to share with the city of Birmingham: pic.twitter.com/hQ0XmRKsmc

— John Shea (@JohnSheaHey) June 19, 2024

Mays was elected to the National Baseball Hall of Fame in 1979. At the time of his death, he was its oldest living member, a distinction he inherited when Tommy Lasorda died on January 7, 2021, and one that now belongs to 90-year-old Luis Aparicio. Read the rest of this entry »

Even before he fractured his right arm during Sunday’s 9-3 loss to the Red Sox, Anthony Rizzo had already endured a rough 12 1/2 months. His 2023 season was wrecked by the aftereffects of a May 28 collision with Fernando Tatis Jr., which manifested themselves as post-concussion symptoms that sapped his production before he was shut down in early August; he didn’t play again that season. He started slowly this year, and while his bat perked up in late April, he fell into a deep slump at the beginning of June and was benched during the Yankees’ recent series against the Dodgers. He showed a few positive signs upon returning to the lineup, but now he’s expected to miss the next eight weeks.

Rizzo’s injury occurred during the seventh inning of Sunday night’s game at Fenway Park. After Alex Verdugo and Giancarlo Stanton both singled off pitcher Brennan Bernardino to start the inning, Rizzo grounded to the right side of the infield. First baseman Dominic Smith ranged over to field the ball and started to throw to second base before realizing he had no shot at forcing Stanton out. He then threw to Bernardino — or rather, behind him. The pitcher dropped the ball as he got to the bag, where a sprinting Rizzo swerved to his right to avoid a full-on collision. He lost his balance and went down hard, rolling over on his right arm. He remained on the ground in obvious pain while being tended to by the Yankees’ athletic trainers, then left the field and was replaced by pinch-runner Oswaldo Cabrera.

Initial imaging with a fluoroscope at Fenway Park was negative, but further testing in New York on Monday revealed that Rizzo had fractured the radial neck of his right arm — that is, the part of the radius near the elbow. Such injuries are more common in children than adults, and often occur on a traumatic fall onto an outstretched hand, which, bingo. Such fractures are usually not displaced, and that would appear to be the case with Rizzo, who won’t need surgery. While initial reports placed his absence in a four-to-six week window, on Tuesday the Yankees said that Rizzo will need about eight weeks before returning to games, with the first baseman saying he was told it’ll be “probably four, five weeks” of no baseball activity. Read the rest of this entry »

2:03

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks, and welcome to another one of my Tuesday chats. This one is from the field office in Wellfleet, where I’m stationed for two weeks with my family — working this week, off next is the plan. Not long ago, my piece on Jack Flaherty’s bounceback went up (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/a-change-of-scenery-has-worked-well-for-ja…), and yesterday I looked at the injuries to the Dodgers’ Mookie Betts and Yoshinobu Yamamoto (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/dodgers-double-whammy-as-yamamoto-and-bett…)

2:04	Jay Jaffe: Tomorrow I’ll have something on the Yankees and Anthony Rizzo’s broken arm. Injuries have cut into my list of players I was planning on checking into; some of those might have to wait until after I return. We’ll see

2:06

Jay Jaffe: Kelenic is 24 years old, and while that’s too young to write off, a quick look at his splits and trends tells me not to get very excited about two hot weeks. Yes, he’s hitting the ball harder but not that hard, he’s also chasing more than you’d like, and unlike last year, he’s really struggling against lefties.

2:08	Jay Jaffe: Assuming they don’t secede from Major League Baseball, I would think so, but I don’t make the schedule. I imagine they’re coming soon – obviously, it’s a deep system with lots of interesting players who are becoming more relevant as the July 30 deadline approaches.

Read the rest of this entry »

While Tarik Skubal has pitched his way into the Cy Young conversation, Jack Flaherty has done his share of the heavy lifting when it comes to helping the Tigers toward respectability. After years of battling injuries, capped by a rough campaign that included a mid-year change of address, the 28-year-old righty is in the middle of his best season in half a decade thanks to another change of scenery. He also should generate plenty of interest ahead of the July 30 trade deadline. On Saturday, Flaherty turned in five shutout innings in a blowout of the Astros, his third consecutive scoreless outing.

Flaherty’s 16.2-inning scoreless streak hasn’t gone entirely smoothly, but it began in impressive fashion. On May 30, he no-hit the Red Sox for 6.1 innings before allowing a single to Rob Refsnyder, then retired one more hitter before departing. On June 4, he threw five shutout innings against the Rangers, allowing two hits and no walks, but exited after 60 pitches due to lower back tightness. At the time, he described the early exit as “more precautionary than anything,” having pitched through a bout of tightness he felt prior to taking the mound. Instead of taking his next turn, he received an injection of some kind (not cortisone) on June 10, and recovered well enough to take the mound this past Saturday. He pitched well, allowing just three hits (including a double and a triple) and a walk, and striking out six. He exited after throwing just 73 pitches, in part because the Tigers led 10-0 at that point; he had struggled to find a rhythm due to the long delays between innings as Detroit pummeled Houston starter Spencer Arrighetti and reliever Shawn Dubin in what ended as a 13-5 rout.

Though Flaherty’s four-seam fastball averaged just 92.2 mph, down 1.4 mph from his seasonal average, he generated five of his six strikeouts with the pitch, four via called strikes; his CSW% (called strike and walk rate) for the pitch was 38%. He struck out Jose Altuve twice, once chasing a knuckle curve and once looking at a 95.3-mph fastball; the latter was his fastest pitch of the game as well as his final one. Read the rest of this entry »

The Dodgers took two out of three from the Royals this weekend in Los Angeles, but they suffered a pair of losses that can’t help but prove costly, as injuries felled two of the game’s best players. On Saturday, Yoshinobu Yamamoto left his start after just two innings due to what was initially described as triceps tightness but was later diagnosed as a rotator cuff strain. On Sunday, Mookie Betts suffered a fracture after being hit on the left hand by a 98-mph fastball. Neither injury is season-ending, but both players figure to be out for several weeks.

Yamamoto’s problems are traceable to his June 7 start against the Yankees. He was brilliant in that outing, shutting out the Bronx Bombers on two hits and two walks while striking out seven in a game that remained scoreless until the 11th inning, when Teoscar Hernández’s two-run double proved decisive. Perhaps owing to the adrenaline that comes with pitching in a playoff-like atmosphere, the 25-year-old righty’s four-seam fastball averaged 97.0 mph that night, 1.5 mph above his average in his first season since coming over from Japan after signing a 12-year, $325 million deal last December. He threw his 17 fastest four-seamers and eight fastest sliders while throwing a season-high 106 pitches; it was his fourth straight outing of at least 100 pitches after topping out at 99 in his first nine turns.

Because Yamamoto experienced soreness in his triceps in the wake of that start, the Dodgers pushed back his next outing from Thursday to Saturday; instead, he threw a bullpen on Thursday but did not experience any additional soreness. On Saturday, he did experience some discomfort while warming up, but “it was not that serious at that point,” as he later said through a translator according to the Los Angeles Times‘ Mike DiGiovanna. He told pitching coach Mark Prior after his warmup, “I don’t feel 100%. I don’t feel frisky, but I feel fine.” Read the rest of this entry »