The other day, I had the opportunity to introduce some of you to Mychal Givens. Based on the response, it was actually a chance to introduce most of you to Mychal Givens, who the Orioles love as a potential major contributor to the bullpen. Givens pitched well, but because he pitched later in the season for a go-nowhere ballclub, he didn’t draw himself a lot of attention, which is why many found the Givens post so surprising. We all feel like we have a pretty good understanding of the game, and of the players involved. It’s unusual to be caught off guard.

That wasn’t a one-off, though. Not that this was intended to be a series, but the Mariners happen to have their own comp. If you love what Givens did in a pretty small sample, you’ll love what the other guy did in an even smaller sample. Like Givens, the mystery pitcher took a big step forward in the minors. Like Givens, he came to the majors and struck a bunch of people out. Like Givens, in the majors, he issued precious few walks. Like Givens, we have a righty with a fastball and a breaking ball; unlike Givens, the mystery pitcher can dial it up even more. Based on track record, the Mariners would currently appear to have a mediocre bullpen. But they might be expecting some major assistance from Tony Zych.

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Wednesday, the Angels quietly picked up Daniel Nava. They did so quietly because there would be no way to do so loudly, and after it was announced, some people started talking seriously about a potential platoon between Nava and Craig Gentry. I don’t know if that’ll happen — I don’t think that’s going to happen — but the mere possibility suggests the Angels aren’t thrilled with the options. It’s a curious thing to consider at the same time as the Orioles agreeing to sign Hyun-soo Kim for two years and $7 million. Kim will be coming from the KBO, so there are the usual questions, but he turns just 28 in a month, and this is middle-reliever money.

For reference, Chad Qualls signed for two years and $6 million. Oliver Perez signed for two years and $7 million. Jonathan Broxton signed for two years and $7.5 million and a no-trade clause. Perfectly useful relievers, all of them, but Kim is lined up to be a starting outfielder, and he’s right around peak age. Without even knowing anything about Kim, the potential value is obvious.

When I first started analyzing Kim, I thought about Nori Aoki. Some people would call that a lazy comp, but I do think it’s within reason. Also, I’ve just had Aoki on my mind lately, so I’m biased. As I’ve thought about this more, though, I’ve arrived at something else. What could Kim turn into in Baltimore? A very familiar-looking player. The Orioles know this skillset.

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I detected a real sense of impatience as far as the Dodgers were concerned. Not impatience on the part of the Dodgers — rather, impatience on the part of people observing the Dodgers. Not that they’d been totally quiet, but they had been inactive. Now, Wednesday, the Dodgers have gotten themselves involved in a doozy. It’s a three-way trade, with the best player neither leaving the Dodgers, nor joining them. Instead, the Dodgers helped facilitate the Reds sending a quality third baseman to the White Sox. The full player breakdown:

White Sox get:

• Todd Frazier

White Sox lose:

• Francelis Montas
• Trayce Thompson
• Micah Johnson

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Reds get:

• Jose Peraza
• Scott Schebler
• Brandon Dixon

Reds lose:

• Todd Frazier

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Dodgers get:

• Francelis Montas
• Trayce Thompson
• Micah Johnson

Dodgers lose:

• Jose Peraza
• Scott Schebler
• Brandon Dixon

Frazier to Chicago, three Chicago prospects to Los Angeles, three Los Angeles prospects to Cincinnati. It stands to reason the Dodgers had to get involved because the Reds and White Sox couldn’t find an easy match straight up. Implying the Reds are higher on, say, the Peraza centerpiece than they would’ve been on a Montas centerpiece. These things can be kind of complicated to analyze, but let’s go team by team.

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It’s my belief that, right now, the Cubs are the best team in baseball. Don’t worry, you’ll have a chance to express your own belief at the end. I know that we’ve been a little heavy on Cubs posts. It’s not entirely our fault — they’ve been active. I also know it’s not super important who looks like the best team in baseball in the middle of December. There’s offseason left, and there’s spring training to go, and countless things could change. It also happens to be my belief the Cubs will remain the best team in baseball as we reach Opening Day, but this is about things as they are. Right now, literally as you read this, provided you read this somewhere close to the publishing date.

I’m going to lay out why I think the Cubs are the best. I’m also going to try to lay out why they might not be, despite all the stuff in the first part. It’s not about being contradictory — it’s about trying to cover everything. At the bottom of the post, you’ll respond to a very simple question. We’ll see which argument you find most convincing.

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There’s a pitcher you might not have ever heard of. Or maybe you have heard of him, but you haven’t thought about him much. He did spend a chunk of last year in the major leagues, and now, let me explain him to you, using a series of facts.

The pitcher threw his fastball about as hard as Andrew Miller, and he also threw strikes about as often as Andrew Miller. He worked in the zone about as much as David Price, yet hitters didn’t like to swing at those pitches. He walked batters around the same rate as Corey Kluber, but he struck batters out around the same rate as Jake McGee, because he had a lower contact rate than Jose Fernandez, and a comparable swinging-strike rate to Noah Syndergaard. That’s how you wind up with a K-BB% like Dellin Betances, an ERA- like Zack Greinke, an FIP- better than Aroldis Chapman, and an xFIP- like Kenley Jansen. Last year, 476 pitchers threw at least 25 innings. The mystery pitcher performed as one of the very, very best.

He yielded the 18th-lowest batting average. Also the ninth-lowest OBP, and the 44th-lowest slugging percentage, despite working in the American League and in a hitter-friendly environment. So he gave up the 17th-lowest OPS. All these numbers are based on a pretty small sample. Yet all these numbers are impossibly encouraging.

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There’s not a single thing the Cubs need to do. They’re outstanding right now, and at a time when people can still buy Christmas presents without expedited shipping, the roster could be considered complete. Probably, the Cubs will come out of this offseason as NL Central favorites. From there, they could remain favorites, but I don’t want to spook any fans who might’ve become increasingly superstitious.

The Cubs could be considered complete, and in right field, they line up to have a 24-year-old Jorge Soler, a player they control through 2020, a player who, in 2014, was one of the three best hitters in the minor leagues, alongside two current teammates. Soler is dynamic and exciting and the sort of player any team would love to have in the system. Yet these rumors persist, trying to send Soler elsewhere. There’s enough smoke you sense there might be a flame: Soler might be on the move any day now. The Cubs would probably prefer a bit more certainty. Which means there are the potential makings here of a major trade.

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The idea of giving a six-year contract to a pitcher scares the dickens out of an awful lot of people. As for the idea of giving a six-year contract to Johnny Cueto? It seems all the more terrifying, given Cueto’s somewhat checkered history. But here we are, with the Giants following up on the Jeff Samardzija acquisition by signing Cueto for six years and $130 million. Before the Diamondbacks signed Zack Greinke, they were said to have offered Cueto six years and $120 million; he looks smart now for turning that down.

Absolutely, this is a six-year guarantee. For Cueto, he’s now looking at a floor of $130 million over six seasons, so it makes sense that’s how this is being reported. Yet as has become the trend, this is a deal with a player opt-out clause, two years in. The industry is seeing more and more of these, and the rest of us are still trying to figure out how to wrap our heads around them. The best I’ve seen it put: this kind of contract is a two-year deal with a four-year player option. And while, in the event of something going horribly wrong, the Giants will be stuck with a monster mistake, it looks to me like Cueto’s in line to leave after 2017. It seems like both parties want it that way.

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I saw a reference not long ago to the White Sox and Padres, regarding how they tell us it doesn’t matter who wins the offseason. The reference was made in an article about the Cubs. Now, the Cubs’ offseason isn’t over. Nor are the rest of the offseasons, so, who knows how the landscape will look by the end? But there are some crucial differences here. For one, there was more criticism of what the White Sox and Padres did. For two, the Cubs have worked on a team that was already legitimately good. As I write this, I believe the Cubs are the best team in baseball. It’s not irrefutable, but there’s a hell of an argument for the opinion.

More moves will be made, and we’ll see improvements to other contenders. The Cubs’ projection is unlikely to budge very much. Still, there are active rumors, surrounding players like Jorge Soler and Javier Baez. Reports suggest the Cubs are most interested in strengthening their starting rotation. Reports aren’t the same as actual moves, and actions speak louder than words and all that, but it’s worth wondering: how badly do the Cubs need a starting pitcher? Consider this part 1 of our series: how badly do the Cubs need anything?

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It wouldn’t be fair to say the ALDS game against the Royals was representative of the Astros’ bullpen, because that would be mean and wrong, but there was a definite lingering sense of unreliability. The Astros bullpen finished among the very best in WAR, but it was in the bottom half by WPA, and feelings mirror WPA better than anything else. Nor is this exactly a new problem — the last five years combined, the Astros bullpen is last in baseball by WPA at -22. The Mets are second-worst at -9. The bullpen hasn’t been a real strength for some time, and now the Astros’ bullpen actually matters. They’re no longer positioned to just see what sticks.

What’s the quickest way to upgrade a bullpen? Add one of the league’s true elite relievers. If he’s young and cost-controlled, all the better. Jeff Luhnow has talked a few times about wanting to diversify his group of relievers, bringing in someone overpowering. Enter Ken Giles. The Astros were circling around Giles for seemingly weeks, and now he’s about to be theirs, coming from the Phillies in exchange for Vincent Velasquez, Derek Fisher, Brett Oberholtzer, and Thomas Eshelman. In large part, it comes down to Giles and Velasquez. Giles is the proven power arm, with years of control. Velasquez is the unproven power arm, with real potential to start.

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